A matter of time: Bateman's principles and mating success as count and duration across social strata in contemporary Finland.

Bateman's principles heavily influence the understanding of human reproductive behaviour. Yet, few rigorous studies on Bateman's principles in contemporary industrialized populations exist. Most studies use small samples, exclude non-marital unions, and disregard recent insights on within-population heterogeneity in mating strategies. We assess mating success and reproductive success using population-wide Finnish register data on marital and non-marital cohabitations and fertility. We examine variability across social strata in the Bateman principles and analyse the mate count, the cumulated duration with a mate, and the association with reproductive success. Results support Bateman's first and second principles. Regarding Bateman's third principle, the number of mates is more positively associated with reproductive success for men than women, but this association is driven by ever having a mate. Having more than one mate is on average associated with lower reproductive success. However, for men in the lowest income quartile, having more than one mate positively predicts reproductive success. Longer union duration is associated with higher reproductive success, and more so for men. We note that sex differences in the relationship between mating success and reproductive success differ by social strata, and argue that mate duration may be an important component of mating success alongside mate count.

Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed Cohort Fertility in Finland.

An extensive literature theorizes the role of repartnering for cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher order unions are nonmarital cohabitations, but most previous studies on completed cohort fertility have analyzed only marital unions, and none have incorporated nonmarital cohabitations using population-level data. To analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women, we use Poisson regression with Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation among the 1969-1972 birth cohorts at ages 18-46. We show that dissolutions of first cohabitations are the main pathway to repartnering and that most higher order unions are cohabitations. Nonmarital repartnering is a strong predictor of low fertility. In contrast, remarriage is positively associated with cohort fertility. Because the bulk of first-union dissolutions and higher order unions are nonmarital, repartnering is not an efficient engine for fertility at the aggregate level. Marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

Parity disparity: Educational differences in Nordic fertility across parities and number of reproductive partners.

Most research on trends in socio-economic fertility differences has focused on cohort total fertility and on women. This study aimed to analyse how cohort trends in parity-specific fertility differ across educational segments for men and women and what role multi-partner fertility plays in these trends. We used Finnish and Swedish register data on cohorts born in 1940-73/78. The main analyses used parity progression ratios, comparing ordinary ratios with similar ratios using births to first reproductive partners only. Among the low and medium educated, we observe strengthening parity polarization across cohorts, with increases in both childlessness and births of order three or higher, the latter largely reflecting increases in multi-partner fertility. Highly educated men and women more often have exactly two children. We demonstrate that cohort total fertility can mask significant parity-specific trends across educational groups and that changes in multi-partner fertility can play a part in cohort trends in socio-economic fertility differentials.

Is Parental Divorce Homogamy Associated With a Higher Risk of Separation From Cohabitation and Marriage?

Numerous studies have shown that parental divorce is associated with an increase in adult children's divorce risk. We extend this literature by assessing how parental divorce on both sides of a couple is related to their partnership dynamics, specifically, whether there is parental divorce homogamy and whether a history of parental divorce for both partners is associated with increased dissolution risks for cohabiting and married unions. We use Finnish Census Panel data on 28,021 cohabiting and marital partnerships to conduct event-history models that follow individuals between ages 18 and 45. Findings show substantial parental divorce homogamy. Children with experience of parental divorce have 13% greater odds of cohabiting with and 17% greater odds of marrying a fellow child of divorcees, compared with those whose parents have not divorced. Moreover, contrary to evidence from the United States and Norway, our findings for Finland support an additive-rather than multiplicative-association between parental divorce homogamy and union dissolution. Parental divorce homogamy increases offspring's union dissolution risk by 20% for cohabitation and 70% for marriage, compared with couples for whom neither partner's parents are divorced. In Finland, the sizes of these associations are notably weaker than in the United States and Norway, likely because cohabitation and separation are more widespread and socially accepted in Finland, and an expansive welfare state buffers the socioeconomic consequences of divorce.

Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969-2000.

During the past decade, the stability of close-to-replacement-level fertility ended in all Nordic countries, with its decline to the lowest level in Finland. It is unclear whether and how partnership dynamics have changed, and whether they play a role in fertility developments. We focus on the patterns and associations between the formation and stability of co-residential partnerships and first birth among Finnish women and men, and on whether and how these associations have changed across birth cohorts. We utilise total population register data on persons born between 1969 and 2000 in Finland, and adopt the event history method. Our results indicate that half of the women formed their first co-residential partnerships by the age of 22 years. Cohorts born in the early 1990s were the first to delay the formation of non-marital first partnerships. In contrast, first births are increasingly postponed, and the proportion of women and men, who become parents, has declined across recent cohorts. Among men, we observe higher median ages for family formation events and higher likelihoods of not forming a family. As a result of fertility decline and increase in partnership instability, for the first time, the probability of separation is higher than that of first births among partnered women born in the 1990s. Our findings show that at a behavioural level, the once close link between partnership formation and parenthood has progressively eroded across consecutive birth cohorts. Together with the ongoing tendency to delay first births, decreasing partnership stability, and first indications of delaying partnership formation, the potential of witnessing a marked increase of fertility levels in the near future is delimited. Our study's results contribute to a better understanding of the demographic mechanisms behind the decline in fertility in Finland, over the recent decade.

Double Disadvantage in a Nordic Welfare State: A Demographic Analysis of the Single-Parent Employment Gap in Finland, 1987-2018.

This study demonstrates how an evolving negative educational gradient of single parenthood can interact with changing labour market conditions to shape labour market inequalities between partnered and single parents. We analysed trends in employment rates among Finnish partnered and single mothers and fathers from 1987 to 2018. In the late 1980s' Finland, single mothers' employment was internationally high and on par with that of partnered mothers, and single fathers' employment rate was just below that of partnered fathers. The gaps between single and partnered parents emerged and increased during the 1990s recession, and after the 2008 economic crisis, it widened further. In 2018, the employment rates of single parents were 11-12 percentage points lower than those of partnered parents. We ask how much of this single-parent employment gap could be explained by compositional factors, and the widening educational gradient of single parenthood in particular. We use Chevan and Sutherland's decomposition technique on register data, which allows us to decompose the single-parent employment gap into the composition and rate effects by each category of the background variables. The findings point to an increasing double disadvantage of single parents: the gradually evolving disadvantage in educational backgrounds together with large differences in employment rates between single and partnered parents with low education explain large parts of the widening employment gap. Sociodemographic changes in interaction with changes in the labour market can produce inequalities by family structure in a Nordic society known for its extensive support for combining childcare and employment for all parents.

Socio-economic resources and first-union formation in Finland, cohorts born 1969-81.

Social scientists generally agree that better individual economic prospects enhance the probability of marriage for men, whereas there are conflicting views with regard to women. Moreover, it is argued that cohabitation does not require as strong an economic foundation as marriage. The aim of this study, which was based on Finnish register data, was to find out how the socio-economic resources of young adults affect first-union formation, and whether the effects vary by sex or union type. The results show that high education, labour-force participation, and high income seem to promote union formation. The findings are similar for women and men, which is plausible given the comparatively gender-egalitarian societal context. Similar factors encourage entry into both union types, although the union-promoting effects of university-level education and stable employment are stronger in the marriage models, suggesting that long-term prospects are more important when marriage is contemplated.

Cash-for-Care Use and Union Dissolution in Finland.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines how the receipt of the cash-for-care (CFC) benefit affects short- and long-term risks of union dissolution. BACKGROUND: Several theories predict that couples' gendered division of labor decreases their risk of separation, either due to increased partnership satisfaction or because it establishes economic dependency. Family policies such as the Finnish CFC benefit, which is paid if a young child does not attend public daycare, may encourage such a gendered division of labor, at least temporarily. METHOD: Using Finnish register data, this study analyzes the first childbearing unions of 38,093 couples between 1987 and 2009. Discrete-time event history analyses and fixed effects models for nonrepeated events are applied. RESULTS: The results suggest a lower separation risk while the benefit is received as compared to couples who do not use it, but no effect in the long-term. Fixed effects models that control for selection into CFC indicate postponement of separation until after take-up. Higher-income mothers show a stronger postponement effect, possibly due to greater income following leave. CONCLUSION: CFC use, which signals a temporary gendered division of labor and losses in mothers' earnings, predicts a lower separation risk during receipt of the benefit, but not beyond. IMPLICATIONS: Policies that affect the division of paid and unpaid labor at best only temporarily reduce dissolution risks.

Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births.

This study investigates how unemployment is associated with the transition to parenthood among men and women in times of increased instability in the labour market. We provide novel insights into how education and life stage might modify the link between unemployment and fertility. We focus on a Nordic welfare state, Finland, and apply event history models to a rich register sample covering the years 1988-2009 (N = 306,413). We find that unemployment or a weaker labour market attachment tends to delay parenthood among both men and women, but the association is stronger for men. In most groups, the accumulation of unemployment periods is associated with a lower rate of entry into parenthood. However, among young, low-educated women, even long-term or recurring unemployment seems to promote first childbearing, and the generally negative association between unemployment and entry into parenthood does not apply to young, low-educated men. The effect of unemployment is largely mediated by the low income of unemployed persons. Overall, our findings suggest that in a modern, gender-egalitarian welfare society, better employment prospects promote transition to parenthood in a very similar fashion among men and women, but the effects are strongly modified by education and life course stage.

Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries.

Systematic comparisons of fertility developments based on education, gender and country context are rare. Using harmonized register data, we compare cohort total fertility and ultimate childlessness by gender and educational attainment for cohorts born beginning in 1940 in four Nordic countries. Cohort fertility (CTF) initially declined in all four countries, although for cohorts born in the 1950s and later, the CTF remained stable or declined only modestly. Childlessness, which had been increasing, has plateaued in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Women's negative educational gradient in relation to total fertility has vanished, except in Finland, while men's positive gradient has persisted. The highest level of men's childlessness appears among the least educated. In the oldest female cohorts, childlessness was highest among the highly educated, but these patterns have changed over the cohorts as childlessness has increased among the low educated and remained relatively stable among higher educated women. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, childlessness is now highest among the least educated women. We witness both a new gender similarity and persistent (among men) and new (among women) educational disparities in childbearing outcomes in the Nordic region. Overall, the number of low educated has decreased remarkably over time. These population segments face increasing social and economic disadvantages that are reflected as well in their patterns of family formation.

Disparities in Children's Family Experiences by Mother's Socioeconomic Status: The Case of Finland.

A well-known argument claims that socioeconomic differentials in children's family structures have become increasingly important in shaping child outcomes and the resources available to children in developed societies. One assumption is that differentials are comparatively small in Nordic welfare states. Our study examines how children's experiences of family structures and family dynamics vary by their mother's educational attainment in Finland. Based on register data on the childbearing and union histories of women in Finland born from 1969 onwards, we provide life-table estimates of children's (N = 64,162) experiences of family dissolution, family formation, and family structure from ages 0-15 years, stratified by mother's education level at the child's birth. We find huge socioeconomic disparities in children's experiences of family structures and transitions. Compared to children of highly educated mothers, children of mothers with low levels of education are almost twice as likely to be born in cohabitation and four times as likely to be born to a lone mother. They are also much more likely to experience further changes in family structure-particularly parental separation. On average, children of low-educated mothers spend just half of their childhood years living with both their parents, whereas those of high-educated mothers spend four-fifths of their childhood with both parents. The sociodemographic inequalities among children in Nordic welfare states clearly deserve more scholarly attention.

The joint effects of marriage partners' socioeconomic positions on the risk of divorce.

This study investigated the joint effects of spouses' socioeconomic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland. For couples in which both partners were at the lowest educational level, the risk of divorce was lower than could be expected on the basis of the previously documented overall inverse association between each spouse's education and the risk of divorce. Women who were employed or were homemakers, and who had employed husbands, had comparatively stable marriages; couples in which the husband, the wife, or both partners were unemployed had an elevated risk of divorce. A husband's high income decreased the risk of divorce, and a wife's high income increased the risk at all levels of the other spouse's income, but especially when the wife's income exceeded the husband's.