Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

Clinical outcomes of transarterial chemoembolization in Child-Turcotte Pugh class A patients with a single small (≤3 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the standard modalities used to treat unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the effectiveness of TACE for treating patients with a solitary small (≤3 cm) HCC and well-preserved liver function has not been definitively established. This study aimed to determine the therapeutic impact of TACE in patients with these characteristics. METHODS: This multicenter (four university hospitals) retrospective cohort study analyzed the medical records of 250 patients with a solitary small (≤3 cm) HCC and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A liver function diagnosed over 10 years. Posttreatment outcomes, including overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and adverse events, were assessed following TACE therapy. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-eight of the 250 patients (55.2%) treated with TACE achieved complete remission (CR). Overall median OS was 77.7 months, and median OS was significantly longer in the CR group than in the non-CR group (89.1 vs. 58.8 months, P = 0.001). Median RFS was 19.1 months in the CR group. Subgroup analysis identified hypertension, an elevated serum albumin level, and achieving CR as significant positive predictors of OS, whereas diabetes, hepatitis c virus infection, and tumor size (>2 cm) were poor prognostic factors of OS. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the effectiveness of TACE as a viable alternative for treating solitary small (≤3 cm) HCC in CTP class A patients.

Optimal cut-offs of transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography in diagnosing advanced liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/aims: Opinions differ regarding transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography (TE/MRE) cut-offs for diagnosing advanced fibrosis (AF) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the diagnostic performance and optimal cut-off values of TE and MRE for diagnosing AF. Methods: Literature databases, including Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed, were used to identify relevant studies published up to June 13, 2023. We selected studies evaluating TE and MRE regarding the degree of liver fibrosis using liver biopsy as the reference. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) of the pooled data for TE and MRE for each fibrosis stage and optimal cut-offs for AF were investigated. Results: A total of 19,199 patients from 63 studies using TE showed diagnostic AUC of 0.83(95% confidence interval: 0.80-0.86), 0.83(0.80-0.86), 0.87(0.84-0.90), and 0.94(0.91-0.96) for ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 stages, respectively. Similarly, 1,484 patients from 14 studies using MRE showed diagnostic AUC of 0.89(0.86-0.92), 0.92(0.89-0.94), 0.89(0.86-0.92), and 0.94(0.91-0.96) for ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 stages respectively. The diagnostic AUC for AF using TE was highest at 0.90 with a cut-off of 7.1-7.9 kPa, and that of MRE was highest at 0.94 with a cut-off of 3.62-3.8 kPa. Conclusions: TE(7.1-7.9 kPa) and MRE(3.62-3.8 kPa) with the suggested cut-offs showed favorable accuracy for diagnosing AF in patients with NAFLD. This result will serve as a basis for clinical guidelines for non-invasive tests and differential diagnosis of AF.

Assessment of the postoperative prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using transient elastography: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: This meta-analysis examined whether preoperative vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) can predict postoperative complications and recurrence in patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases. Out of 431 individual studies, thirteen published between 2008 and 2022 were included. Five studies focused on HCC recurrence, while eight examined postoperative complications. Results: The meta-analysis of five studies on HCC recurrence showed that the high-risk group with a high VCTE score had a significantly increased recurrence rate after hepatic resection (hazard ratio [HR], 2.14). The cutoff value of VCTE in the high-risk group of HCC recurrence was 7.4-13.4kPa, the sensitivity was 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.72), and the specificity was 0.60 (95% CI 0.46-0.72). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the liver stiffness measured by VCTE to predict the HCC recurrence was 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.67). The meta-analysis on the postoperative complications revealed a significantly increased risk of postoperative complications in the high-risk group (12-25.6kPa) with a high VCTE value (risk ratio [RR], 8.32). The AUC of the liver stiffness measured by VCTE to predict the postoperative complications was 0.87(95% CI 0.84-0.90), the sensitivity was 0.76 (95% CI 0.55-0.89) and the specificity was 0.85 (95% CI 0.73-0.92). Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that preoperative VCTE in patients undergoing hepatic resection for HCC is useful in identifying individuals at a high risk of postoperative complications and HCC recurrence.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Transient Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Autoimmune Liver Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background/Aims: The assessment of liver fibrosis is crucial for managing autoimmune liver diseases such as primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). However, data on the efficacy of noninvasive tests (NITs) for these diseases are limited. This meta-analysis evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) for staging fibrosis in patients with autoimmune liver disease. Methods: Searches were conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to assess the diagnostic accuracy of VCTE against histology as the reference standard in adult patients with autoimmune liver disease. The summary area under the curve (sAUC) and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated for significant fibrosis (SF), advanced fibrosis (AF), and cirrhosis, defined as METAVIR stages F≥2, F≥3, and F=4, respectively, according to liver biopsy. Results: Fourteen articles were included, comprising 559 PBC patients from six studies, 388 AIH patients from five studies, and 151 PSC patients from three studies. VCTE demonstrated good performance for fibrosis staging in PBC, AIH, and PSC. In PBC, sAUCs of VCTE were 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.94), 0.89 (0.85-0.94), and 0.99 (0.96-1.00) for staging SF, AF, and cirrhosis, respectively. In AIH, the sAUCs were 0.88 (0.84-0.92), 0.88 (0.83-0.93), and 0.92 (0.88-0.96), respectively, while in PSC, they were 0.88 (0.82-0.95), 0.95 (0.90-1.00), and 0.92 (0.84-0.99), respectively. The cutoff values for AF were 7.5-17.9 kPa in PBC, 8.18-12.1 kPa in AIH, and 9.6 kPa in PSC. Conclusions: VCTE shows high diagnostic accuracy for staging liver fibrosis in patients with autoimmune liver diseases such as PBC, AIH, and PSC. This non-invasive and reliable method serves as a valuable tool for the evaluation and monitoring of fibrosis in these lifelong diseases.

Non-invasive prediction of post-sustained virological response HCC in HCV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Despite advances in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops even after sustained viral response (SVR) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. This meta-analysis investigated the predictive performance of transient elastography (TE) and fibrosis 4-index (FIB-4) for the development of HCC after SVR. Methods: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for studies examining the predictive performance of these tests in adult patients with HCV. Two authors independently screened the studies' methodological quality and extracted data. Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for HCC development using random-effects bivariate logit normal and linear-mixed effect models. Results: We included 27 studies (169,911 patients). Meta-analysis of HCC after SVR was possible in nine TE and 15 FIB-4 studies. Regarding the prediction of HCC development after SVR, the pooled AUCs of pre-treatment TE >9.2-13 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 were 0.79 and 0.73, respectively. TE >8.4-11 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 measured after SVR, maintained good predictive performance, albeit slightly reduced (pooled AUCs: 0.77 and 0.70, respectively). The identified optimal cut-off value for HCC development after SVR was 12.6 kPa for pre-treatment TE. That of TE measured after the SVR was 11.2 kPa. Conclusion: TE and FIB-4 showed acceptable predictive performance for HCC development in patients with HCV who achieved SVR, underscoring their utility in clinical practice for guiding surveillance strategies. Future studies are needed to validate these findings prospectively and validate their clinical impact.

Prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: Although important, clinically significant liver fibrosis is often overlooked in the general population. We aimed to examine the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis using noninvasive tests (NITs) in the general population. Methods: We collected data from four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed) from inception to June 13, 2023. Original articles reporting the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population were included. The Stata metaprop function was used to obtain the pooled prevalence of liver fibrosis with NITs in the general population. Results: We screened 6,429 articles and included 45 eligible studies that reported the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population. The prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis, using the high probability cutoff of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, was 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.7%). The prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, assessed using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) among the general population, was 7.3% (95% CI, 5.9-8.8%), 3.5% (95% CI, 2.7-4.5), and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.8-1.8%), respectively. Region-based subgroup analysis revealed that the highest prevalence of advanced fibrosis using the high probability cutoff of the FIB-4 index was observed in the American region. Furthermore, the American region exhibits the highest prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, using VCTE. Conclusions: Previously undiagnosed clinically significant liver fibrosis is found in the general population through NITs. Future research is necessary to stratify the risk in the general population.

Risk Assessment of Hepatitis B virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development Using Transient Elastography: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography (TE) can assess fibrotic burden in chronic liver diseases. The systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether LSM using TE can predict the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Methods: A systematic literature search of the Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases (from January 2010 to June 2023) was conducted. Of the 1,345 individual studies identified, 10 studies that used TE were finally registered. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence interval (CIs) were considered summary estimates of treatment effect sizes of ≥ 11 kilopascal (kPa) standard for HCC development. Meta-analysis was performed using the restricted Maximum Likelihood random effects model. Results: Among the ten studies, data for risk ratios for HCC development could be obtained from nine studies. When analyzed for the nine studies, the HR for HCC development was high at 3.33 (95% CI, 2.45-4.54) in CHB patients with a baseline LSM of ≥ 11 kPa compared to patients who did not. In ten studies included, LSM of ≥ 11 kPa showed the sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development were 61% (95% CI, 50-71%) and 78% (95% CI, 66-86%), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77). Conclusions: The risk of HCC development was elevated in CHB patients with TE-determined LSM of ≥11 kPa. This finding suggests that TE-determined LSM values may aid the risk prediction of HCC development in CHB patients.

Transient elastography for significant fibrosis in treatment-naïve CHB patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Accurate diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is crucial when determining whether to initiate antiviral treatment (AVT). We conduct a meta-analysis to assess the diagnostic performance of transient elastography (TE) for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with serum alanine transaminase (ALT) levels within 5-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN). Methods: The Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases were searched to identify studies that compared the performance of TE and liver biopsy (reference standard) when diagnosing significant liver fibrosis (≥ F2) in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN. A hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) and bivariate model were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of TE in the meta-analysis. Results: Eight studies (2,003 patients) were included. The summary sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis were 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.86] and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.82), respectively. The HSROC for the diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.86). The optimal cut-off value of TE for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 7.7 kPa with a sensitivity of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.76) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that TE has an acceptable diagnostic performance for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 index for advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: The Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is a non-invasive test widely used to rule out advanced liver fibrosis (AF) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, its diagnostic accuracy in MASLD patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are controversial due to the high prevalence of AF in this population. Methods: Research focusing on the diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis as validated by liver histology in MASLD patients with T2DM was included, and 12 studies (n=5,624) were finally included in the meta-analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC), positive predictive values (PPVs), and negative predictive values (NPVs) at low cutoffs (1.3-1.67) and high cutoffs (2.67-3.25) for ruling in and out AF, were calculated. Results: At low cutoffs, the meta-analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.74, specificity of 0.62, and HSROC of 0.75. At high cutoffs, the analysis showed a sensitivity of 0.33, specificity of 0.92, and HSROC of 0.85, suggesting FIB-4 as useful for identifying or excluding AF. In subgroup analyses, high mean age and F3 prevalence were associated with lower sensitivity. The calculated NPV and PPV were 0.82 and 0.49 at low cutoffs, whereas the NPV was 0.28 and the PPV was 0.70 at high cutoffs. There were insufficient estimated NPVs <0.90 at a hypothesized prevalence of AF >30% at an FIB-4 cutoff range of 1.3-1.67. Conclusions: Collectively, FIB-4 has moderate diagnostic accuracy for identifying or excluding AF in MASLD patients with T2DM, but more evidence must be accumulated due to the limited number of currently reported studies and their heterogeneity.

Machine learning-based clinical decision support system for treatment recommendation and overall survival prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-center study.

The treatment decisions for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are determined by a wide range of factors, and there is a significant difference between the recommendations of widely used staging systems and the actual initial treatment choices. Herein, we propose a machine learning-based clinical decision support system suitable for use in multi-center settings. We collected data from nine institutions in South Korea for training and validation datasets. The internal and external datasets included 935 and 1750 patients, respectively. We developed a model with 20 clinical variables consisting of two stages: the first stage which recommends initial treatment using an ensemble voting machine, and the second stage, which predicts post-treatment survival using a random survival forest algorithm. We derived the first and second treatment options from the results with the highest and the second-highest probabilities given by the ensemble model and predicted their post-treatment survival. When only the first treatment option was accepted, the mean accuracy of treatment recommendation in the internal and external datasets was 67.27% and 55.34%, respectively. The accuracy increased to 87.27% and 86.06%, respectively, when the second option was included as the correct answer. Harrell's C index, integrated time-dependent AUC curve, and integrated Brier score of survival prediction in the internal and external datasets were 0.8381 and 0.7767, 91.89 and 86.48, 0.12, and 0.14, respectively. The proposed system can assist physicians by providing data-driven predictions for reference from other larger institutions or other physicians within the same institution when making treatment decisions.

Effect of diabetes on mortality and liver transplantation in alcoholic liver cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have investigated the influence of diabetes on alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients, leaving its impact unclear. Thus, we conducted a study to reveal the association of diabetes and clinical outcomes of such patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively collected data from multicenter pertaining to 965 patients diagnosed with alcoholic liver cirrhosis, all of whom were admitted due to acute decompensation between 2015 and 2019. Risk of major precipitating factors and incidences of death or liver transplantation in patients with and without diabetes was comparatively assessed. Propensity score (PS) matching was performed at a 1:2 ratio for accurate comparisons. RESULTS: The mean age was 53.4 years, and 81.0% of the patients were male. Diabetes was prevalent in 23.6% of the cohort and was positively correlated with hepatic encephalopathy and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, although not statistically significant. During a median follow-up of 903.5 person-years (PYs), 64 patients with and 171 without diabetes died or underwent liver transplantation, with annual incidence of 33.6/100 PYs and 24.0/100 PYs, respectively. In the PS-matched cohort, the incidence of death or liver transplantation was 36.8/100 PYs and 18.6/100 PYs in the diabetes and matched control group, respectively. After adjusting for various factors, coexisting diabetes significantly heightened the risk of death or liver transplantation in the short and long term, in addition to prolonged prothrombin time, low serum albumin, elevated total bilirubin and creatinine, and decreased serum sodium levels. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes increases the risk of death or liver transplantation in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

The Clinical Courses and Prognosis of Cirrhotic Patients after First Acute Decompensation: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium suggested that the clinical courses after acute decompensation (AD) stratify the long-term prognosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre ACLF), and ACLF. However, previous studies included patients with a history of previous AD and had limitations associated with identifying the clinical factors related to prognosis after the first AD. METHOD: The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort included cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD between July 2015 and August 2018. We analysed the factors associated with readmission after the first AD and compared the characteristics and prognosis among each subgroup to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of pre ACLF after AD. RESULT: A total of 746 cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD were enrolled. The subgroups consisted of SDC (n = 565), UDC (n = 29), pre ACLF (n = 28), and ACLF (n = 124). Of note, pre ACLF showed a poorer prognosis than ACLF. The risk factors associated with readmission within 3 months of first AD were non-variceal gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and high MELD score. Viral aetiology was associated with the occurrence of pre ACLF compared with alcohol aetiology regardless of baseline liver function status. CONCLUSION: Cirrhotic patients with first AD who present as non-variceal GI bleeding and HE can easily relapse. Interestingly, the occurrence of AD with organ failure within 3 months of first AD (pre ACLF) has worse prognosis compared with the occurrence of organ failure at first AD (ACLF). In particular, cirrhotic patients with viral hepatitis with/without alcohol consumption showed poor prognosis compared to other aetiologies. Therefore, patients with ACLF after AD within 3 months should be treated more carefully and definitive treatment through LT should be considered.