The relationship between islet autoantibody status and the genetic risk of type 1 diabetes in adult-onset type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The reason for the observed lower rate of islet autoantibody positivity in clinician-diagnosed adult-onset vs childhood-onset type 1 diabetes is not known. We aimed to explore this by assessing the genetic risk of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-negative and -positive children and adults. METHODS: We analysed GAD autoantibodies, insulinoma-2 antigen autoantibodies and zinc transporter-8 autoantibodies (ZnT8A) and measured type 1 diabetes genetic risk by genotyping 30 type 1 diabetes-associated variants at diagnosis in 1814 individuals with clinician-diagnosed type 1 diabetes (1112 adult-onset, 702 childhood-onset). We compared the overall type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (T1DGRS) and non-HLA and HLA (DR3-DQ2, DR4-DQ8 and DR15-DQ6) components with autoantibody status in those with adult-onset and childhood-onset diabetes. We also measured the T1DGRS in 1924 individuals with type 2 diabetes from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium to represent non-autoimmune diabetes control participants. RESULTS: The T1DGRS was similar in autoantibody-negative and autoantibody-positive clinician-diagnosed childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (mean [SD] 0.274 [0.034] vs 0.277 [0.026], p=0.4). In contrast, the T1DGRS in autoantibody-negative adult-onset type 1 diabetes was lower than that in autoantibody-positive adult-onset type 1 diabetes (mean [SD] 0.243 [0.036] vs 0.271 [0.026], p<0.0001) but higher than that in type 2 diabetes (mean [SD] 0.229 [0.034], p<0.0001). Autoantibody-negative adults were more likely to have the more protective HLA DR15-DQ6 genotype (15% vs 3%, p<0.0001), were less likely to have the high-risk HLA DR3-DQ2/DR4-DQ8 genotype (6% vs 19%, p<0.0001) and had a lower non-HLA T1DGRS (p<0.0001) than autoantibody-positive adults. In contrast to children, autoantibody-negative adults were more likely to be male (75% vs 59%), had a higher BMI (27 vs 24 kg/m2) and were less likely to have other autoimmune conditions (2% vs 10%) than autoantibody-positive adults (all p<0.0001). In both adults and children, type 1 diabetes genetic risk was unaffected by the number of autoantibodies (p>0.3). These findings, along with the identification of seven misclassified adults with monogenic diabetes among autoantibody-negative adults and the results of a sensitivity analysis with and without measurement of ZnT8A, suggest that the intermediate type 1 diabetes genetic risk in autoantibody-negative adults is more likely to be explained by the inclusion of misclassified non-autoimmune diabetes (estimated to represent 67% of all antibody-negative adults, 95% CI 61%, 73%) than by the presence of unmeasured autoantibodies or by a discrete form of diabetes. When these estimated individuals with non-autoimmune diabetes were adjusted for, the prevalence of autoantibody positivity in adult-onset type 1 diabetes was similar to that in children (93% vs 91%, p=0.4). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The inclusion of non-autoimmune diabetes is the most likely explanation for the observed lower rate of autoantibody positivity in clinician-diagnosed adult-onset type 1 diabetes. Our data support the utility of islet autoantibody measurement in clinician-suspected adult-onset type 1 diabetes in routine clinical practice.

DR15-DQ6 remains dominantly protective against type 1 diabetes throughout the first five decades of life.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Among white European children developing type 1 diabetes, the otherwise common HLA haplotype DR15-DQ6 is rare, and highly protective. Adult-onset type 1 diabetes is now known to represent more overall cases than childhood onset, but it is not known whether DR15-DQ6 is protective in older-adult-onset type 1 diabetes. We sought to quantify DR15-DQ6 protection against type 1 diabetes as age of onset increased. METHODS: In two independent cohorts we assessed the proportion of type 1 diabetes cases presenting through the first 50 years of life with DR15-DQ6, compared with population controls. In the After Diabetes Diagnosis Research Support System-2 (ADDRESS-2) cohort (n = 1458) clinician-diagnosed type 1 diabetes was confirmed by positivity for one or more islet-specific autoantibodies. In UK Biobank (n = 2502), we estimated type 1 diabetes incidence rates relative to baseline HLA risk for each HLA group using Poisson regression. Analyses were restricted to white Europeans and were performed in three groups according to age at type 1 diabetes onset: 0-18 years, 19-30 years and 31-50 years. RESULTS: DR15-DQ6 was protective against type 1 diabetes through to age 50 years (OR < 1 for each age group, all p < 0.001). The following ORs for type 1 diabetes, relative to a neutral HLA genotype, were observed in ADDRESS-2: age 5-18 years OR 0.16 (95% CI 0.08, 0.31); age 19-30 years OR 0.10 (0.04, 0.23); and age 31-50 years OR 0.37 (0.21, 0.68). DR15-DQ6 also remained highly protective at all ages in UK Biobank. Without DR15-DQ6, the presence of major type 1 diabetes high-risk haplotype (either DR3-DQ2 or DR4-DQ8) was associated with increased risk of type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: HLA DR15-DQ6 confers dominant protection from type 1 diabetes across the first five decades of life.

A pragmatic and scalable strategy using mobile technology to promote sustained lifestyle changes to prevent type 2 diabetes in India and the UK: a randomised controlled trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This randomised controlled trial was performed in India and the UK in people with prediabetes to study whether mobile phone short message service (SMS) text messages can be used to motivate and educate people to follow lifestyle modifications, to prevent type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The study was performed in people with prediabetes (n = 2062; control: n = 1031; intervention: n = 1031) defined by HbA1c ≥42 and ≤47 mmol/mol (≥6.0% and ≤6.4%). Participants were recruited from public and private sector organisations in India (men and women aged 35-55 years) and by the National Health Service (NHS) Health Checks programme in the UK (aged 40-74 years without pre-existing diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease). Allocation to the study groups was performed using a computer-generated sequence (1:1) in India and by stratified randomisation in permuted blocks in the UK. Investigators in both countries remained blinded throughout the study period. All participants received advice on a healthy lifestyle at baseline. The intervention group in addition received supportive text messages using mobile phone SMS messages 2-3 times per week. Participants were assessed at baseline and at 6, 12 and 24 months. The primary outcome was conversion to type 2 diabetes and secondary outcomes included anthropometry, biochemistry, dietary and physical activity changes, blood pressure and quality of life. RESULTS: At the 2 year follow-up (n = 2062; control: n = 1031; intervention: n = 1031), in the intention-to-treat population the HR for development of type 2 diabetes calculated using a discrete-time proportional hazards model was 0.89 (95% CI 0.74, 1.07; p = 0.22). There were no significant differences in the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This trial in two countries with varied ethnic and cultural backgrounds showed no significant reduction in the progression to diabetes in 2 years by lifestyle modification using SMS messaging. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The primary study was registered on www.ClinicalTrials.gov (India, NCT01570946; UK, NCT01795833). FUNDING: The study was funded jointly by the Indian Council for Medical Research and the UK Medical Research Council.

Skinfold thickness measurements and mortality in white males during 27.7 years of follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is a major risk factor for mortality from a range of causes. We investigated whether skinfold measurements were associated with mortality independently of variation in body mass index (BMI). METHODS: A prospective analysis of mortality in 870 apparently healthy adult Caucasian men participating in an occupational health cohort was undertaken. At baseline, skinfold measurements were taken at biceps, triceps, iliac and subscapular sites. Derived measurements included the sum of all four skinfolds and subscapular to triceps, subscapular to iliac and BMI to iliac ratios. All-cause mortality was analysed by Cox proportional hazards modelling and death in specific mortality subcategories by competing risks analysis. RESULTS: During a mean of 27.7 years follow up, there were 303 deaths (119 cancer, 101 arteriovascular, 40 infection, 43 other). In univariable analysis, BMI was associated with all-cause, cancer, arteriovascular and other mortality and subscapular skinfold with all-cause and arteriovascular mortality. On bivariable analysis, with inclusion of BMI, subscapular skinfold ceased to be a associated with mortality but iliac skinfold emerged as strongly, negatively associated with all-cause and arteriovascular mortality. In multivariable analysis, with inclusion of age, BMI, smoking, alcohol and exercise, iliac skinfold was negatively associated with all-cause (Hazard ratio HR 0.77, 95% confidence interval CI 0.66-0.90, p = 0.002), arteriovascular (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.58,0.97, p = 0.02) and infection (HR 0.63, 95%CI 0.42,0.94, p = 0.02) death. Among obese participants (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), iliac skinfold of ≤9.7 mm was associated with a six-fold increase in all-cause mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Low iliac skinfold thickness is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in adult white males with risk apparently concentrated among people who are obese.

Protocol for a clinical trial of text messaging in addition to standard care versus standard care alone in prevention of type 2 diabetes through lifestyle modification in India and the UK.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is a serious clinical problem in both India and the UK. Adoption of a healthy lifestyle through dietary and physical activity modification can help prevent type 2 diabetes. However, implementing lifestyle modification programmes to high risk groups is expensive and alternative cheaper methods are needed. We are using a short messaging service (SMS) programme in our study as a tool to provide healthy lifestyle advice and an aid to motivation. The aim of the study is to assess the efficacy and user acceptability of text messaging employed in this way for people with pre-diabetes (HbA1c 6.0% to ≤6.4%; 42-47 mmol/mol) in the UK and India. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a randomised, controlled trial with participants followed up for 2 years. After being screened and receiving a structured education programme for prediabetes, participants are randomised to a control or intervention group. In the intervention group, text messages are delivered 2-3 times weekly and contain educational, motivational and supportive content on diet, physical activity, lifestyle and smoking. The control group undergoes monitoring only. In India, the trial involves 5 visits after screening (0, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months). In the UK there are 4 visits after screening (0, 6, 12 and 24 months). Questionnaires (EQ-5D, RPAQ, Transtheoretical Model of Behavioural Change, and food frequency (UK)/24 h dietary recall (India)) and physical activity monitors (Actigraph GT3X+ accelerometers) are assessed at baseline and all follow-up visits. The SMS acceptability questionnaires are evaluated in all follow-up visits. The primary outcome is progression to type 2 diabetes as defined by an HbA1c of 6.5% or over(India) and by any WHO criterion(UK). Secondary outcomes are the changes in body weight, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose; lipids; proportion of participants achieving HbA1c ≤6.0%; HOMA-IR; HOMA-ß; acceptability of SMS; dietary parameters; physical activity and quality of life. DISCUSSION: The study is designed to assess the efficacy of tailored text messaging in addition to standard lifestyle advice to reduce the progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes in the two different countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ; NCT01570946 , 4th April 2012 (India); NCT01795833 , 21st February 2013 (UK).

Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes is Higher among Men with Persistent Impaired Glucose Tolerance than in Transient Impaired Glucose Tolerance - A 5 year Follow up Study.

OBJECTIVE: This was a 5 year comparative analysis of the incidence of type 2 diabetes in men who had persistent impaired glucose tolerance (P-IGT) versus transient impaired glucose tolerance (T-IGT). P-IGT (positive IGT on two oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT), T-IGT (IGT in first OGTT and normal glucose tolerance (NGT) in the 2nd OGTT). METHODS: The samples were collected from a randomized controlled diabetes prevention study. The prevention study was done using lifestyle modification (LSM) promoted by use of mobile short message services (SMS) for 2 years. The control group of the randomized study who received advice on LSM at only the baseline formed the P-IGT group for the 3 years follow up study (n=236). T-IGT (n=569) were available from those who had NGT on the 2nd OGTT while screening for the prevention study. The total diabetes incidence at 5 years in the study groups were compared using standard OGTT (WHO criteria). RESULTS: The conversion rate to diabetes in 5 years was significantly lower among T-IGT than among P-IGT, OR=0.202 (95% CI, 0.145-0.296,p< 0.0001). P-IGT had higher rate of risk factors for diabetes than T-IGT. CONCLUSION: The risk of conversion to diabetes was 80 percent lower in T-IGT than in P-IGT. Identification of P-IGT will help in selecting persons who require early intervention for diabetes.

Effects of gender, age and menopausal status on serum apolipoprotein concentrations.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a comprehensive evaluation of apolipoprotein risk markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD) according to gender, age and menopausal status. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of independent associations of gender, age and menopause with serum apolipoproteins. PARTICIPANTS: Apparently healthy Caucasian premenopausal (n = 109) and postmenopausal (n = 252) women not taking oral contraceptives or hormone replacement, and Caucasian men (n = 307). MEASUREMENTS: Serum apolipoprotein (apo) B, A-I and A-II concentrations were measured, plus serum total cholesterol, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C, respectively), triglycerides, cholesterol in HDL subfractions and the apoB/apoA-I, LDL-C/apoB, HDL-C/apoA-I and HDL-C/apoA-II ratios. Analyses were undertaken with and without standardization for confounding characteristics and in 5-year age ranges. RESULTS: Overall, apoB concentrations were highest in men but in women rose with age and menopause to converge, in the age range of 50-55 years, with concentrations in men. The LDL-C/apoB ratio was generally higher in women than in men. ApoA-I concentrations were highest in postmenopausal women and lowest in men (standardized median (IQR) 144 (130, 158) vs 119 (108, 132) g/l, respectively, P < 0·001). ApoA-II concentrations were also highest in postmenopausal women but were lowest in premenopausal women (40·3 (37·5, 44·5) vs 32·9 (30·5, 35·7) g/l, respectively, P < 0·001). Nevertheless, postmenopausal women had HDL-C/apoA-I and HDL-C/apoA-II ratios approaching the lowest ratios, which were seen in men. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with adverse effects on CVD risk, male gender, ageing in women and menopause were associated with increased apoB concentrations, and menopause and male gender were associated with a decreased cholesterol content of HDL particles.

Baseline level of 30-min plasma glucose is an independent predictor of incident diabetes among Asian Indians: analysis of two diabetes prevention programmes.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to study the ability of the 30-min plasma glucose (30-min PG) during an oral glucose tolerance test to predict the future risk of type 2 diabetes among Asian Indians with impaired glucose tolerance. METHODS: For the present analyses, we utilized data from 753 participants from two diabetes primary prevention studies, having complete data at the end of the study periods, including 236 from Indian Diabetes Prevention Programme-1 and 517 from the 2013 study. Baseline 30-min PG values were divided into tertiles: T1 < 9.1 mmol/L (<163.0 mg/dL); T2 9.2-10.4 mmol/L (164.0-187.0 mg/dL) and T3 ≥ 10.4 mmol/L (≥188 mg/dL). The predictive values of tertiles of 30-min PG for incident diabetes were assessed using Cox regression analyses RESULTS: At the end of the studies, 230 (30.5%) participants developed diabetes. Participants with higher levels of 30-min PG were more likely to have increased fasting, 2-h PG and HbA1c levels, increased prevalence of impaired fasting glucose and decreased beta cell function. The progression rate of diabetes increased with increasing tertiles of 30-min PG. Cox's regression analysis showed that 30-min PG was an independent predictor of incident diabetes after adjustment for an array of covariates [Hazard Ratio (HR):1.44 (1.01-2.06)] CONCLUSIONS: This prospective analysis demonstrates, for the first time, an independent association between an elevated 30-min PG level and incident diabetes among Asian Indians with impaired glucose tolerance. Predictive utility of glycemic thresholds at various time points other than the traditional fasting and 2-h PG values should therefore merit further consideration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Screening among male industrial workers in India shows high prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance, undetected diabetes and cardiovascular risk clustering.

OBJECTIVE: To study the magnitude of undetected diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors among male industrial workers. METHODS: Measurements of 2h post glucose blood glucose (2h PG), blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were done in 8741 non-diabetic men of 35-55 years. Presence of family history of diabetes (FH) was noted. Risk associations with diabetes and IGT were studied using multiple logistic regression analysis. Clustering of overweight/obesity, abdominal obesity, hypertension was noted. RESULTS: Prevalence of undetected diabetes (14.9%) and IGT (31.4%) were high. FH, age, hypertension and BMI showed strong associations with diabetes and IGT. More than 40% had clustering of risk factors. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of undetected diabetes, IGT and clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors among young industrial workers mandates that regular screening for metabolic disorders should be undertaken to prevent development of severe morbidity in the productive years of life.

Combining Fasting Plasma Glucose with Gamma-glutamyl Transferase Improves the Sensitivity to Predict Incident Diabetes in Asian Indian Men with Impaired Glucose Tolerance.

OBJECTIVE: To study the associations of baseline gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and alanine transaminase (ALT) with incident diabetes among Asian Indian men with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). METHODS: In a 2 year prospective, randomised, controlled primary prevention study of diabetes, among 537 IGT men aged 35-55 years, 123 incident diabetes (DM) cases occurred. Anthropometric {body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC)}, and laboratory measurements (fasting, 30 min and 2 hr plasma glucose (2 hr PG), HbA1c and plasma insulin, lipid profile, ALT, GGT) were estimated at baseline (Clinical Trial Identification No: NCT00819455). Predictive associations of baseline GGT and ALT values during the study were assessed using appropriate statistical methods. RESULTS: Baseline GGT but not ALT was significantly higher in incident diabetes cases. Mean (95% CI) GGT decreased in subjects who reverted to normal glucose tolerance (NGT), whereas it increased in subjects who deteriorated to diabetes (NGT:-3.5 (-6.4 to -0.6); IGT:0.3 (-3.0 to 2.4); DM:8.3 (3.6 to 13.0) UL(-1); P < 0.0001). The risk of DM significantly increased with increasing baseline GGT after adjusting for confounders such as BMI, alcohol drinking, 2 hr PG and insulin resistance (2.02[1.35-3.02]; P = 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the model comprising of baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and GGT (area-under-curve(AUC)[95% CI]: 0.668 [0.613-0.722]; P < 0.0001) was equally sensitive in identifying subjects with risk of diabetes as compared to 2 hr PG (AUC [95% CI]: 0.670 [0.614-0.725]; P < 0.0001) and HbA1c (AUC [95% CI]: 0.677 [0.619-0.734]; P < 0.0001) alone. CONCLUSIONS: GGT was an independent predictor of incident diabetes. Combination of GGT and FPG offers a simple and sensitive tool to identify subjects at high risk of developing diabetes.

The importance of intravenous glucose tolerance test glucose stimulus for the evaluation of insulin secretion.

For 100 years, the Intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) has been used extensively in researching the pathophysiology of diabetes mellitus and AIRg-the IVGTT-induced acute insulin response to the rapid rise in circulating glucose-is a key measure of insulin secretory capacity. For an effective evaluation of AIRg, IVGTT glucose loading should be adjusted for glucose distribution volume (gVOL) to provide an invariant, trend-free immediate rise in circulating glucose (ΔG0). Body weight-based glucose loads have been widely used but whether these achieve a trend-free ΔG0 does not appear to have been investigated. By analysing variation in AIRg, ΔG0 and gVOL with a range of IVGTT loads, both observed and simulated, we explored the hypothesis that there would be an optimum anthropometry-based IVGTT load calculation that, by achieving a trend-free ΔG0, would not compromise evaluation of AIRg as an index of beta cell function. Data derived from patient and research volunteer records for 3806 IVGTT glucose and insulin profiles. Among the non-obese, as gVOL rose, weight increased disproportionately rapidly. Consequently, the IVGTT glucose load needed for an invariant ΔG0 was progressively overestimated, accounting for 47% of variation in AIRg. Among the obese, ΔG0 was trend-free yet AIRg increased by 11.6% per unit body mass index, consistent with a more proportionate increase in weight with gVOL and a hyperinsulinaemic adaptation to adiposity-associated insulin resistance. Simulations further confirmed our hypothesis by demonstrating that a body surface area-based IVGTT load calculation could provide for a more generally invariant IVGTT ΔG0.

The burden of diabetes-associated multiple long-term conditions on years of life spent and lost.

Diabetes mellitus is a central driver of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs), but population-based studies have not clearly characterized the burden across the life course. We estimated the age of onset, years of life spent and loss associated with diabetes-related MLTCs among 46 million English adults. We found that morbidity patterns extend beyond classic diabetes complications and accelerate the onset of severe MLTCs by 20 years earlier in life in women and 15 years earlier in men. By the age of 50 years, one-third of those with diabetes have at least three conditions, spend >20 years with them and die 11 years earlier than the general population. Each additional condition at the age of 50 years is associated with four fewer years of life. Hypertension, depression, cancer and coronary heart disease contribute heavily to MLTCs in older age and create the greatest community-level burden on years spent (813 to 3,908 years per 1,000 individuals) and lost (900 to 1,417 years per 1,000 individuals). However, in younger adulthood, depression, severe mental illness, learning disabilities, alcohol dependence and asthma have larger roles, and when they occur, all except alcohol dependence were associated with long periods of life spent (11-14 years) and all except asthma associated with many years of life lost (11-15 years). These findings provide a baseline for population monitoring and underscore the need to prioritize effective prevention and management approaches.

Ethnic variation in the activity of lipid desaturases and their relationships with cardiovascular risk factors in control women and an at-risk group with previous gestational diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Lipid desaturase enzymes mediate the metabolism of fatty acids to long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and their activities are related to metabolic risk factors for Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and coronary heart disease (CHD). There are marked ethnic differences in risks of CHD and T2DM but little is known about ethnic differences in desaturase activities. METHODS: Samples from a study of CVD risk in women with previous gestational diabetes were analysed for percentage fatty acids in plasma free fatty acid, triglyceride, cholesterol ester and phospholipid pools for 89 white European, 53 African Caribbean and 56 Asian Indian women. The fatty acid desaturase activities, stearoyl-CoA desaturase (SCD, calculated separately for C16 and C18 fatty acids), delta 6 desaturase (D6D) and delta 5 desaturase (D5D) were estimated from precursor-to-product ratios and their relationships with adiposity, blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol and insulin sensitivity explored. Ethnic differences in desaturase activities independent of ethnic variation in risk factor correlates of desaturase activities were then identified. RESULTS: There was significant ethnic variation in age, BMI, waist circumference, blood pressure, serum triglycerides and HDL cholesterol concentrations and insulin resistance. Desaturase activities showed significant correlations, independent of ethnicity, with BMI, waist circumference, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol. Independent of ethnic variation in BMI, waist circumference, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol, SCD-16 activity, calculated from each of the four lipid pools measured, was 18-35 percent higher in white Europeans than in African Caribbeans or Asian Indians (all p < 0.001). Similar, though less consistent differences were apparent for SCD-18 activity. Also independently of risk factor variation, but specifically when calculated from the cholesterol ester and phospholipid, pools, D6D activity was significantly lower in Asian Indians, and D5D activity higher in African Caribbeans. CONCLUSIONS: Significant ethnic differences exist in desaturase activities, independently of ethnic variation in other risk factors. These characteristics did not accord with higher risk of T2DM among African Caribbeans and Asian Indians nor with lower risk of CHD among African Caribbeans but did accord with the higher risk of CHD in Asian Indians.

Prevalence of multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity) in England: a whole population study of over 60 million people.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC) at whole English population level, stratifying by age, sex, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. DESIGN: A whole population study. SETTING: Individuals registered with a general practice in England and alive on 31 March 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 60,004,883 individuals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MLTC prevalence, defined as two or more of 35 conditions derived from a number of national patient-level datasets. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the independent associations of age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation decile with odds of MLTC. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of MLTC was 14.8% (8,878,231), varying from 0.9% (125,159) in those aged 0-19 years to 68.2% (1,905,979) in those aged 80 years and over. In multivariable regression analyses, compared with the 50-59 reference group, the odds ratio was 0.04 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04-0.04; p < 0.001) for those aged 0-19 years and 10.21 (10.18-10.24; p < 0.001) for those aged 80 years and over. Odds were higher for men compared with women, 1.02 (1.02-1.02; p < 0.001), for the most deprived decile compared with the least deprived, 2.26 (2.25-2.27; p < 0.001), and for Asian ethnicity compared with those of white ethnicity, 1.05 (1.04-1.05; p < 0.001). Odds were lower for black, mixed and other ethnicities (0.94 (0.94-0.95) p < 0.001, 0.87 (0.87-0.88) p < 0.001 and 0.57 (0.56-0.57) p < 0.001, respectively). MLTC for persons aged 0-19 years were dominated by asthma, autism and epilepsy, for persons aged 20-49 years by depression and asthma, for persons aged 50-59 years by hypertension and depression and for those aged 60 years and older, by cardiometabolic factors and osteoarthritis. There were large numbers of combinations of conditions in each age group ranging from 5936 in those aged 0-19 years to 205,534 in those aged 80 years and over. CONCLUSIONS: While this study provides useful insight into the burden across the English population to assist health service delivery planning, the heterogeneity of MLTC presents challenges for delivery optimisation.

Islet Autoantibody Level Distribution in Type 1 Diabetes and Their Association With Genetic and Clinical Characteristics.

CONTEXT: The importance of the autoantibody level at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) is not clear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the association of glutamate decarboxylase (GADA), islet antigen-2 (IA-2A), and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) autoantibody levels with clinical and genetic characteristics at diagnosis of T1D. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, cross-sectional study. GADA, IA-2A, and ZnT8A were measured in 1644 individuals with T1D at diagnosis using radiobinding assays. Associations between autoantibody levels and the clinical and genetic characteristics for individuals were assessed in those positive for these autoantibodies. We performed replication in an independent cohort of 449 people with T1D. RESULTS: GADA and IA-2A levels exhibited a bimodal distribution at diagnosis. High GADA level was associated with older age at diagnosis (median 27 years vs 19 years, P = 9 × 10-17), female sex (52% vs 37%, P = 1 × 10-8), other autoimmune diseases (13% vs 6%, P = 3 × 10-6), and HLA-DR3-DQ2 (58% vs 51%, P = .006). High IA-2A level was associated with younger age of diagnosis (median 17 years vs 23 years, P = 3 × 10-7), HLA-DR4-DQ8 (66% vs 50%, P = 1 × 10-6), and ZnT8A positivity (77% vs 52%, P = 1 × 10-15). We replicated our findings in an independent cohort of 449 people with T1D where autoantibodies were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. CONCLUSION: Islet autoantibody levels provide additional information over positivity in T1D at diagnosis. Bimodality of GADA and IA-2A autoantibody levels highlights the novel aspect of heterogeneity of T1D. This may have implications for T1D prediction, treatment, and pathogenesis.

Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Primary and Secondary Adrenal Insufficiency and the Role of Comorbidities.

CONTEXT: Mortality studies have established that cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in patients with adrenal insufficiency and the risk is greater than that observed in individually matched controls. OBJECTIVE: Here we have performed a detailed analysis of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, taking account of the role of comorbidities. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a UK general practitioner database. The participant population comprised 6821 patients with adrenal insufficiency (primary, 2052; secondary, 3948) compared with 67 564 individually matched controls, with and without adjustment for comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, previous cardiovascular disease, and smoking). The main outcome measures were composite cardiovascular events recorded in the CPRD and cardiovascular mortality in participants with linked national mortality data. RESULTS: Hazard ratios (95% CI) for composite cardiovascular events in patients with adrenal insufficiency of any cause were 1.28 (1.20-1.36, unadjusted) and 1.07 (1.01-1.14, adjusted). Increased cerebrovascular events in patients with secondary adrenal insufficiency accounted for most of the increased hazard (1.53 [1.34-1.74, adjusted]) and were associated with cranial irradiation therapy. Cardiovascular mortality data were available for 3547 patients and 34 944 controls. The adjusted hazard ratio for ischemic heart disease mortality was 1.86 (1.25-2.78) for primary adrenal insufficiency and 1.39 (1.02-1.89) for secondary. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities largely accounted for the increased cardiovascular events but in secondary adrenal insufficiency, cerebrovascular events were independently increased and associated with irradiation treatment. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality remained increased even following adjustment for comorbidities in both primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency.

Mortality Risk in Patients With Adrenal Insufficiency Using Prednisolone or Hydrocortisone: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

CONTEXT: Prednisolone has been recommended rather than hydrocortisone for glucocorticoid replacement in adrenal insufficiency due its longer duration of action and lower cost. OBJECTIVE: To determine mortality rates with prednisolone versus hydrocortisone. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data extracted from a UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to measure the relative mortality of patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, who were treated with either prednisolone or hydrocortisone, and control individuals who were individually matched for age, sex, period, and place of follow-up. RESULTS: As expected, mortality in adrenal insufficiency irrespective of cause was increased, based on 5478 patients (4228 on hydrocortisone; 1250 on prednisolone) and 54 314 controls (41 934 and 12 380, respectively). Overall, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was similar with the 2 treatments (prednisolone, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.54-2.01] vs hydrocortisone 1.69 [1.57-1.82]; P = 0.65). This was also the case for secondary adrenal insufficiency. In primary disease (1405 on hydrocortisone vs 137 on prednisolone; 13 965 and 1347 controls, respectively), prednisolone users were older, more likely to have another autoimmune disease and malignancy, and less likely to have mineralocorticoid replacement. Nevertheless, after adjustment, the HR for prednisolone-treated patients remained higher than for those taking hydrocortisone (2.92 [2.19-3.91] vs 1.90 [1.66-2.16]; P = 0.0020). CONCLUSION: In primary but not in secondary adrenal insufficiency, mortality was higher with prednisolone. The study was large, but the number of prednisolone-treated patients was small, and they had greater risk factors. Nonetheless, the increased mortality associated with prednisolone persisted despite statistical adjustment. Further evidence is needed regarding the long-term safety of prednisolone as routine replacement.

Increased Mortality Risk in Patients With Primary and Secondary Adrenal Insufficiency.

CONTEXT: Mortality data in patients with adrenal insufficiency are inconsistent, possibly due to temporal and geographical differences between patients and their reference populations. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality risk and causes of death in adrenal insufficiency with an individually matched reference population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was done using a UK general practitioner database (CPRD). A total of 6821 patients with adrenal insufficiency (primary, 2052; secondary, 3948) were compared with 67564 individually-matched controls (primary, 20366; secondary, 39134). Main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and hospital admission from adrenal crisis. RESULTS: With follow-up of 40 799 and 406 899 person-years for patients and controls respectively, the hazard ratio (HR [95% CI]) for all-cause mortality was 1.68 [1.58-1.77]. HRs were greater in primary (1.83 [1.66-2.02]) than in secondary (1.52 [1.40-1.64]) disease; primary versus secondary disease (1.16 [1.03-1.30]). The leading cause of death was cardiovascular disease (HR 1.54 [1.32-1.80]), along with malignant neoplasms and respiratory disease. Deaths from infection were also relatively high (HR 4.00 [2.15-7.46]). Adrenal crisis contributed to 10% of all deaths. In the first 2 years following diagnosis, the patients' mortality rate and hospitalization from adrenal crisis were higher than in later years. CONCLUSION: Mortality was increased in adrenal insufficiency, especially primary, even with individual matching and was observed early in the disease course. Cardiovascular disease was the major cause but mortality from infection was also high. Adrenal crisis was a common contributor. Early education for prompt treatment of infections and avoidance of adrenal crisis hold potential to reduce mortality.