Sequestration and Destruction of Rinderpest Virus-Containing Material 10 Years after Eradication.

In 2021, the world marked 10 years free from rinderpest. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health have since made great strides in consolidating, sequencing, and destroying stocks of rinderpest virus-containing material, currently kept by only 14 known institutions. This progress must continue.

The Opportunity To Eradicate Peste des Petits Ruminants.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious disease of sheep and goats that is caused by PPR virus, a member of the genus Morbillivirus that includes the viruses that cause rinderpest (RP) in cattle. RP was the first animal disease to be globally eradicated in 2011 and is only the second disease, after smallpox, to have ever been eradicated. PPR is one of the principal constraints to small ruminant production in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The epidemiology of PPR and RP as well as the technologies available for their diagnosis and control are similar. The conditions that favored the eradication of RP are also largely present for PPR. In this work, we outline the evolving strategy for eradication in light of current opportunities and challenges, as well as the lessons from other eradication programs in animal and human health. The global PPR situation and technology for its control are summarized. A strategy based on the lessons from previous eradication efforts that integrate epidemiology, social science, and economics as tools to target and motivate vaccination is summarized. Major aspects of the cost and benefit-cost analysis of the indicated program are presented. The overall undiscounted cost of eradication was estimated as $3.1 billion, and the benefit-cost ratio for the most likely scenario was estimated at 33.8. We close with a discussion of the possible next steps.

Eco-social processes influencing infectious disease emergence and spread.

The complexity and connectedness of eco-social processes have major influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases amongst humans and animals. The disciplinary nature of most research activity has made it difficult to improve our understanding of interactions and feedback loops within the relevant systems. Influenced by the One Health approach, increasing efforts have recently been made to address this knowledge gap. Disease emergence and spread is strongly influenced by host density and contact structures, pathogen characteristics and pathogen population and molecular evolutionary dynamics in different host species, and host response to infection. All these mechanisms are strongly influenced by eco-social processes, such as globalization and urbanization, which lead to changes in global ecosystem dynamics, including patterns of mobility, human population density and contact structures, and food production and consumption. An improved understanding of epidemiological and eco-social processes, including their interdependence, will be essential to be able to manage diseases in these circumstances. The interfaces between wild animals, domestic animals and humans need to be examined to identify the main risk pathways and put in place appropriate mitigation. Some recent examples of emerging infectious disease are described to illustrate eco-social processes that are influencing disease emergence and spread.

Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change.

A systematic review was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to analyze qualitatively best available scientific evidence on the effect of agricultural intensification and environmental changes on the risk of zoonoses for which there are epidemiological interactions between wildlife and livestock. The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture-environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union.

BACKGROUND: The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS: The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS: The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

Rinderpest virus sequestration and use in posteradication era.

After the 2011 declaration of rinderpest disease eradication, we surveyed 150 countries about rinderpest virus stocks. Forty-four laboratories in 35 countries held laboratory-attenuated strains, field strains, or diagnostic samples. Vaccine and reagent production and laboratory experiments continued. Rigorous standards are necessary to ensure that stocks are kept under safe conditions.

Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.

An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME.

Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Infection at the Wildlife-Livestock Interface in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, 2015-2019.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease of goats and sheep that occurs in Africa, the Middle East and Asia with a severe impact on livelihoods and livestock trade. Many wild artiodactyls are susceptible to PPR virus (PPRV) infection, and some outbreaks have threatened endangered wild populations. The role of wild species in PPRV epidemiology is unclear, which is a knowledge gap for the Global Strategy for the Control and Eradication of PPR. These studies aimed to investigate PPRV infection in wild artiodactyls in the Greater Serengeti and Amboseli ecosystems of Kenya and Tanzania. Out of 132 animals purposively sampled in 2015-2016, 19.7% were PPRV seropositive by ID Screen PPR competition enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA; IDvet, France) from the following species: African buffalo, wildebeest, topi, kongoni, Grant's gazelle, impala, Thomson's gazelle, warthog and gerenuk, while waterbuck and lesser kudu were seronegative. In 2018-2019, a cross-sectional survey of randomly selected African buffalo and Grant's gazelle herds was conducted. The weighted estimate of PPRV seroprevalence was 12.0% out of 191 African buffalo and 1.1% out of 139 Grant's gazelles. All ocular and nasal swabs and faeces were negative by PPRV real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Investigations of a PPR-like disease in sheep and goats confirmed PPRV circulation in the area by rapid detection test and/or RT-qPCR. These results demonstrated serological evidence of PPRV infection in wild artiodactyl species at the wildlife-livestock interface in this ecosystem where PPRV is endemic in domestic small ruminants. Exposure to PPRV could be via spillover from infected small ruminants or from transmission between wild animals, while the relatively low seroprevalence suggests that sustained transmission is unlikely. Further studies of other major wild artiodactyls in this ecosystem are required, such as impala, Thomson's gazelle and wildebeest.

Optimization and evaluation of a non-invasive tool for peste des petits ruminants surveillance and control.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and devastating viral disease affecting mainly sheep and goats, but also a large number of wild species within the order Artiodactyla. A better understanding of PPR transmission dynamics in multi-host systems is necessary to efficiently control the disease, in particular where wildlife and livestock co-occur. Notably, the role of wildlife in PPR epidemiology is still not clearly understood. Non-invasive strategies to detect PPR infection without the need for animal handling could greatly facilitate research on PPR epidemiology and management of the disease in atypical hosts and in complex field situations. Here, we describe optimized methods for the direct detection of PPR virus genetic material and antigen in fecal samples. We use these methods to determine the detection window of PPR in fecal samples, and compare the sensitivity of these methods to standard invasive sampling and PPR diagnostic methods using field samples collected at a wildlife-livestock interface in Africa. Our results show that quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-QPCR) amplification of PPRV from fecal swabs has good sensitivity in comparison to ocular swabs. Animals infected by PPRV could be identified relatively early on and during the whole course of infection based on fecal samples using RT-QPCR. Partial gene sequences could also be retrieved in some cases, from both fecal and ocular samples, providing important information about virus origin and relatedness to other PPRV strains. Non-invasive strategies for PPRV surveillance could provide important data to fill major gaps in our knowledge of the multi-host PPR epidemiology.

Herd-level animal management factors associated with the occurrence of bovine neonatal pancytopenia in calves in a multi-country study.

Since 2007, mortality associated with a previously unreported haemorrhagic disease has been observed in young calves in several European countries. The syndrome, which has been named 'bovine neonatal pancytopenia' (BNP), is characterised by thrombocytopenia, leukocytopenia and a panmyelophthisis. A herd-level case-control study was conducted in four BNP affected countries (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) to identify herd management risk factors for BNP occurrence. Data were collected using structured face-to-face and telephone interviews of farm managers and their local veterinarians. In total, 363 case farms and 887 control farms were included in a matched multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis. Case-control status was strongly associated with the odds of herd level use of the vaccine PregSure® BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) (matched adjusted odds ratio (OR) 107.2; 95% CI: 41.0-280.1). This was also the case for the practices of feeding calves colostrum from the calf's own dam (OR 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1-3.4) or feeding pooled colostrum (OR 4.1; 95% CI: 1.9-8.8). Given that the study had relatively high statistical power and represented a variety of cattle production and husbandry systems, it can be concluded with some confidence that no other herd level management factors are competent causes for a sufficient cause of BNP occurrence on herd level. It is suggested that genetic characteristics of the dams and BNP calves should be the focus of further investigations aimed at identifying the currently missing component causes that together with PregSure vaccination and colostrum feeding represent a sufficient cause for occurrence of BNP in calves.

Pregnancy and ketoacidosis: Is pancreatitis a missing link?

Non-diabetic ketoacidosis is increasingly recognised in pregnancy, particularly during the third trimester, and is usually associated with vomiting. In many cases, the cause of the vomiting is not identified and resolves rapidly, alongside the metabolic abnormalities, following delivery. Here, we report three cases in which pancreatitis was identified as an underlying cause of the gastrointestinal symptoms. To our knowledge, these are the first reports of pancreatitis precipitating non-diabetic ketoacidosis in pregnancy. This case series highlights the importance of searching for a precipitant for non-diabetic ketoacidosis in pregnancy, rather than focusing solely on management of the resulting metabolic abnormalities.

The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

Experiences in participatory surveillance and community-based reporting systems for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza: a case study approach.

Participatory surveillance (PS) is the application of participatory rural appraisal methods to the collection of epidemiological information to inform decision-making and action. It was applied in Africa and Asia as part of emergency programs to address the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) pandemic. The approach resulted in markedly increased case detection in countries experiencing HPAI, and a better understanding of the epidemiological situation. Where HPAI was absent and PS was implemented, the method did not result in false positives and contributed to the overall epidemiological assessment that the country was free of disease. It was noted that clarity of surveillance objectives and resulting data needs at the outset was essential to optimize the balance of surveillance methods, size of the program and costs. The quality of training programs and adherence to international guidelines on good PS training practice were important for assuring the competence of PS practitioners. Orientation of senior decision-makers was an important step in assuring effective program management and appropriate use of results. As a problem-solving methodology, PS is best used to rapidly assess situations and inform strategy. Several countries continued PS after the end of projects and went on to apply PS to other health challenges.

Stochastic spatio-temporal modelling of African swine fever spread in the European Union during the high risk period.

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral pig disease with high mortality and serious socio-economic consequences. Since ASF emerged in Georgia in 2007 the disease has spread to several neighbouring countries and cases have been detected in areas bordering the European Union (EU). It is uncertain how fast the virus would be able to spread within the unrestricted European trading area if it were introduced into the EU. This project therefore aimed to develop a model for the spread of ASF within and between the 27 Member States (MS) of the EU during the high risk period (HRP) and to identify MS during that period would most likely contribute to ASF spread ("super-spreaders") or MS that would most likely receive cases from other MS ("super-receivers"). A stochastic spatio-temporal state-transition model using simulated individual farm records was developed to assess silent ASF virus spread during different predefined HRPs of 10-60 days duration. Infection was seeded into farms of different pig production types in each of the 27 MS. Direct pig-to-pig transmission and indirect transmission routes (pig transport lorries and professional contacts) were considered the main pathways during the early stages of an epidemic. The model was parameterised using data collated from EUROSTAT, TRACES, a questionnaire sent to MS, and the scientific literature. Model outputs showed that virus circulation was generally limited to 1-2 infected premises per outbreak (95% IQR: 1-4; maximum: 10) with large breeder farms as index case resulting in most infected premises. Seven MS caused between-MS spread due to intra-Community trade during the first 10 days after seeding infection. For a HRP of 60 days from virus introduction, movements of infected pigs will originate at least once from 16 MS, with 6 MS spreading ASF in more than 10% of iterations. Two thirds of all intra-Community spread was linked to six trade links only. Denmark, the Netherlands, Lithuania and Latvia were identified as "super-spreaders"; Germany and Poland as "super-receivers". In the sensitivity analysis, the total number of premises per country involved in intra-Community trade was found to be a key determinant for the between-MS spread dynamic and needs to be further investigated. It was concluded that spread during the HRP is likely to be limited, especially if the HRP is short. This emphasises the importance of having good disease awareness in all MS for early disease detection.

Calf-level factors associated with bovine neonatal pancytopenia--a multi-country case-control study.

Bovine neonatal pancytopenia (BNP), a high fatality condition causing haemorrhages in calves aged less than 4 weeks, was first reported in 2007 in Germany and subsequently observed at low incidence in other European countries and New Zealand. A multi-country matched case-control study was conducted in 2011 to identify calf-level risk factors for BNP. 405 BNP cases were recruited from 330 farms in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands by laboratory confirmation of farmer-reported cases. Up to four calves of similar age from the same farm were selected as controls (1154 calves). Risk factor data were collected by questionnaire. Multivariable modelling using conditional logistic regression indicated that PregSure®BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) vaccination of the dam was strongly associated with BNP cases (adjusted matched Odds Ratio - amOR 17.8 first lactation dams; 95% confidence interval - ci 2.4, 134.4; p = 0.005), and second or more lactation PregSure-vaccinated dams were more likely to have a case than first lactation vaccinated dams (amOR 2.2 second lactation; ci 1.1, 4.3; p = 0.024; amOR 5.3 third or more lactation; ci 2.9, 9.8; p = <0.001). Feeding colostrum from other cows was strongly associated with BNP if the dam was not PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 30.5; ci 2.1, 440.5; p = 0.012), but the effect was less if the dam was PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 2.1; ci 1.1, 4.0; p = 0.024). Feeding exclusively dam's milk was a higher risk than other types of milk (amOR 3.4; ci 1.6, 7.5; p = 0.002). The population attributable fractions were 0.84 (ci 0.68, 0.92) for PregSure vaccination, 0.13 (ci 0.06, 0.19) for feeding other cows' colostrum, and 0.15 (ci 0.08, 0.22) for feeding dam's milk. No other calf-level factors were identified, suggesting that there are other important factors that are outside the scope of this study, such as genetics, which explain why BNP develops in some PregSure-colostrum-exposed calves but not in others.

Rinderpest eradication: appropriate technology and social innovations.

Rinderpest is only the second infectious disease to have been globally eradicated. In the final stages of eradication, the virus was entrenched in pastoral areas of the Greater Horn of Africa, a region with weak governance, poor security, and little infrastructure that presented profound challenges to conventional control methods. Although the eradication process was a development activity rather than scientific research, its success owed much to several seminal research efforts in vaccine development and epidemiology and showed what scientific decision-making and management could accomplish with limited resources. The keys to success were the development of a thermostable vaccine and the application of participatory epidemiological techniques that allowed veterinary personnel to interact at a grassroots level with cattle herders to more effectively target control measures.

TOCOX--a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of rofecoxib (a COX-2-specific prostaglandin inhibitor) for the prevention of preterm delivery in women at high risk.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and efficacy of the long term prophylactic use of rofecoxib (a COX-2-specific inhibitor) in women at high risk of preterm delivery. DESIGN: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, London and Guys and St Thomas' Hospitals, London. POPULATION: Ninety-eight singleton pregnancies at high risk of preterm labour. METHODS: Treatment from 16 to 32 weeks. Weekly ultrasound surveillance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fetal renal function and ductus arteriosus blood flow changes. Preterm delivery rates and neonatal outcome. RESULTS: Rofecoxib caused a reduction in hourly fetal urine production rates (-34%, 95% CI -13 to -50%, P = 0.004) and amniotic fluid index (-2.2, 95% CI -3.2 to -1.2, P < 0.001). This effect did not increase with time on treatment and reversed in all cases on discontinuation of treatment. Rofecoxib had an effect on the ductus arteriosus, increasing maximum systolic velocity (0.1 m/s, 95% CI 0.03-0.16, P = 0.02) and minimum diastolic velocity (0.007 m/s, 95% CI 0.0007-0.013, P= 0.03). This effect increased with time on treatment but was reversed with discontinuation of treatment and had no long term clinical sequelae. There was no difference in preterm delivery rates <30 weeks (28% on placebo vs 33% on rofecoxib, Mantel-Haensel [M-H]-adjusted risk 1.11, 95% CI 0.67-1.87). There were more deliveries <37 weeks in those on rofecoxib (40%vs 67%, M-H-adjusted risk 1.59, 95% CI 1.09-2.32). Rates of preterm prelabour rupture of membranes (PPROM) were higher in those on rofecoxib (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.7). CONCLUSION: Rofecoxib has a significant but reversible effect on fetal renal function and the ductus arteriosus. It does not reduce the incidence of early preterm delivery <30 weeks and is associated with an increased risk of delivery before 37 weeks in women at high risk.

Preconception transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to report pregnancy outcome and complication rates for women with recurrent late pregnancy loss who were treated with preconception transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage. STUDY DESIGN: This was a case note review of 19 women at high risk for second trimester loss and early preterm delivery who were treated with preconception transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital from 1994 to 2003. RESULTS: Preconception transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage was associated with a postoperative fetal survival rate of 100% for pregnancies that reached >12 weeks of gestation, compared with a preoperative fetal survival rate of 12%. There were no significant intraoperative, antenatal, intrapartum or neonatal complications. CONCLUSION: Within this case series, preconception transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage was a safe alternative to transabdominal cervicoisthmic cerclage that was performed in pregnancy with no risk to a fetus. It should be considered in appropriate cases in women seen for prepregnancy counseling.