A real-time data assimilative forecasting system for animal tracking.

Monitoring technologies now provide real-time animal location information, which opens up the possibility of developing forecasting systems to fuse these data with movement models to predict future trajectories. State-space modeling approaches are well established for retrospective location estimation and behavioral inference through state and parameter estimation. Here we use a state-space model within a comprehensive data assimilative framework for probabilistic animal movement forecasting. Real-time location information is combined with stochastic movement model predictions to provide forecasts of future animal locations and trajectories, as well as estimates of key behavioral parameters. Implementation uses ensemble-based sequential Monte Carlo methods (a particle filter). We first apply the framework to an idealized case using a nondimensional animal movement model based on a continuous-time random walk process. A set of numerical forecasting experiments demonstrates the workflow and key features, such as the online estimation of behavioral parameters using state augmentation, the use of potential functions for habitat preference, and the role of observation error and sampling frequency on forecast skill. For a realistic demonstration, we adapt the framework to short-term forecasting of the endangered southern resident killer whale (SRKW) in the Salish Sea using visual sighting information wherein the potential function reflects historical habitat utilization of SRKW. We successfully estimate whale locations up to 2.5 h in advance with a moderate prediction error (<5 km), providing reasonable lead-in time to mitigate vessel-whale interactions. It is argued that this forecasting framework can be used to synthesize diverse data types and improve animal movement models and behavioral understanding and has the potential to lead to important advances in movement ecology.

Estimating behavioral parameters in animal movement models using a state-augmented particle filter.

Data on fine-scale animal movement are being collected worldwide, with the number of species being tagged and the resolution of data rapidly increasing. In this study, a general methodology is proposed to understand the patterns in these high-resolution movement time series that relate to marine animal behavior. The approach is illustrated with dive data from a northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) tagged on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska, USA. We apply a state-space model composed of a movement model and corresponding high-resolution vertical movement data. The central goal is to estimate parameters of this movement model, particularly their variation on appropriate time scales, thereby providing a direct link to behavior. A particle filter with state augmentation is used to jointly estimate the movement parameters and the state. A multiple iterated filter using overlapping data segments is implemented to match the parameter time scale with the behavioral inference. The time variation in the auto-covariance function facilitates identification of a movement model, allows separation of observation and process noise, and provides for validation of results. The analysis yields fitted parameters that show distinct time-evolving changes in fur seal behavior over time, matching well what is observed in the original data set.

Static inflation and deflation pressure-volume curves from excised lungs of marine mammals.

Excised lungs from eight marine mammal species [harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus), harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), gray seal (Halichoerus grypush), Atlantic white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus), common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus), long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena)] were used to determine the minimum air volume of the relaxed lung (MAV, N=15), the elastic properties (pressure-volume curves, N=24) of the respiratory system and the total lung capacity (TLC). Our data indicate that mass-specific TLC (sTLC, l kg(-1)) does not differ between species or groups (odontocete vs phocid) and agree with that estimated (TLC(est)) from body mass (M(b)) by applying the equation: TLC(est)=0.135 M(b)(0.92). Measured MAV was on average 7% of TLC, with a range from 0 to 16%. The pressure-volume curves were similar among species on inflation but diverged during deflation in phocids in comparison with odontocetes. These differences provide a structural basis for observed species differences in the depth at which lungs collapse and gas exchange ceases.

Reducing vessel noise increases foraging in endangered killer whales.

Disturbance from underwater noise is one of the primary threats to the critically endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKWs). Previous studies have demonstrated that SRKWs spend less time feeding when vessels are present. In 2018, we measured the effects of a voluntary vessel slowdown action in SRKW critical habitat to assess whether ship speed (and related source level) affects foraging behaviour. Observations of SRKWs and ships were collected from land-based sites on San Juan Island, WA, USA, overlooking the Haro Strait slow-down area. Exploratory analyses found little support for a linear relationship between ship speed and SRKW behaviour, but strong support between received noise level from ships and the probability of SRKWs engaging in foraging activity. Reducing ship speed, and therefore ship noise amplitude will help decrease the probability of ship noise disrupting SRKW foraging activity and may help to increase the proportion of accessible salmon.

Empirical measures of harbor seal behavior and avoidance of an operational tidal turbine.

There is global interest in marine renewable energy from underwater tidal turbines. Due to overlap in animal habitat with locations for tidal turbines, the potential for collisions has led to concern around strike risk. Using data from tagged harbor seals collected before construction and after operation of the SeaGen tidal turbine in Northern Ireland, this study quantifies risks of an operational turbine to harbor seals by taking into account turbine characteristics, tidal state, and seal behavior. We found 68% spatial avoidance (95% C.I., 37%, 83%) by harbor seals within 200 m of the turbine. When additionally accounting for variation in seal occupancy over depth and tidal flows, there is an overall reduction in collision risk from 1.29 to 0.125 seals per tidal cycle (90.3% reduction; (95% C.I., 83%, 98%)) compared to risk calculated under assumptions of uniform habitat use. This demonstrates the need to incorporate environmental conditions to properly assess strike risk.

Enfuvirtide plasma levels and injection site reactions using a needle-free gas-powered injection system (Biojector).

OBJECTIVES: To assess the use of the Biojector B2000 needle-free gas-powered injection system for subcutaneous administration of enfuvirtide in HIV-infected patients and to compare this system with standard needles and syringes with respect to ease of use, severity of injection site reactions (ISR), and enfuvirtide plasma levels. DESIGN: An observational study among 32 treatment-experienced HIV clinic patients receiving enfuvirtide. METHODS: Adult patients were assessed before and after switching from standard needles to the Biojector for enfuvirtide administration. Patients used the Biojector for up to 24 weeks and rated ease of use from 0 (easy) to 3 (difficult). ISR were graded from 0 to 31 for signs and symptoms (erythema, induration, pruritus, nodules/cysts, ecchymosis), duration of individual lesions, and number of lesions. Plasma was collected pre-dose and 1 h post-dose for enfuvirtide measurement. The high-pressure liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry method used was specific for enfuvirtide over its known plasma metabolite. Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to compare needle-based and Biojector outcomes. RESULTS: The Biojector was rated as being significantly easier to use (P < 0.001) and reduced the occurrence of ISR compared with standard needles (P < 0.001). Enfuvirtide plasma levels were not statistically different between the two administration methods at either pre-dose trough (P = 0.41) or 1 h post-dose (P = 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: The Biojector needle-free injection system was easy to use for enfuvirtide administration and was associated with a decreased severity of ISR. Plasma enfuvirtide levels pre-dose and 1 h post-dose were comparable when injecting with standard needles or the Biojector.

Antiretroviral adherence and HIV treatment outcomes among HIV/HCV co-infected injection drug users: the role of methadone maintenance therapy.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the association of methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) adherence and HIV treatment outcomes among a cohort of HIV/HCV co-infected injection drug users (IDUs). METHODS: We obtained demographic, drug use, and addiction care history from the Vancouver Injection Drug User Study (VIDUS), which is an open cohort study of IDUs. The questionnaires were longitudinally linked to the British Columbia HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Program to obtain HAART adherence and HIV treatment outcome data. There were 278 VIDUS participants who accessed HAART from August 1, 1996 to November 24, 2003. We constructed longitudinal logistic models using generalized estimating equations to examine the independent associations between methadone maintenance therapy and the following outcomes: HAART adherence; plasma HIV-1 RNA suppression; and CD4 cell rise of 100cells/mm(3). RESULTS: Among participants who reported at least weekly heroin use, MMT was independently associated with lower odds of subsequent weekly heroin use during the follow-up period (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval [AOR; 95% CI]: 0.24; 0.14-0.40). We also found that MMT was positively associated with adherence (AOR 1.52; 95% CI 1.16-2.00), HIV-1 RNA suppression (AOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.00-1.79), and CD4 cell count rise (AOR 1.58; 95% CI 1.26-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV/HCV co-infected IDUs on HAART, enrollment in MMT was associated with reduced heroin use, and improved adherence, HIV-1 RNA suppression and CD4 cell count response. Integrating opiate addiction care and HIV care may provide improved health outcomes for this vulnerable population and should be further explored.

Population health effects of air quality changes due to forest fires in British Columbia in 2003: estimates from physician-visit billing data.

BACKGROUND: Major forest fires near populated areas during 2003 exacted a huge economic toll on communities in British Columbia. We designed a study to examine associations between PM2.5 and PM10 levels and physician visits in two affected communities. METHODS: Measurements of 24-hour averages of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) obtained from the monitoring network of the BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection were used to define weeks where forest fires resulted in increases in ambient PM. Weekly rates of physician visits for respiratory (ICD-9 codes 460-519), cardiovascular (390-459) and mental illnesses (290-319) obtained through the Medical Services Plan of BC, were compared for 2003 and aggregates of the 10 previous years. RESULTS: Both the Kelowna and Kamloops regions experienced five weeks of elevated 24-hour average PM levels, although maximum levels in Kelowna were greater. In the Kelowna region, increases in physician visits for respiratory diseases of between 46 and 78% above 10-year mean rates were observed for three weeks during the forest fire period. Similar effects were not observed in Kamloops. Effects on visits for cardiovascular diseases or mental disorders were not seen in either community. INTERPRETATION: Forest fire smoke was associated with an excess of respiratory complaints in Kelowna area residents. The lack of a similar effect in Kamloops is likely due to the population being exposed to lower levels of PM. The absence of apparent cardiovascular health effects may be due to selective effects of forest fire smoke on respiratory tract disease.

Impact of neighborhood-level socioeconomic status on HIV disease progression in a universal health care setting.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to examine neighborhood measures of socioeconomic status and their effect on the risk of mortality among HIV-positive persons accessing and not accessing treatment, the effects of late access to treatment by CD4 cell count, and survival among those who accessed treatment. METHODS: We limited our analysis to the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We used individual-level patient and clinical characteristics and neighborhood-level socioeconomic data to address our objectives. The Pearson chi2 and Wilcoxon sign rank tests were used to compare mortality among HIV-positive persons accessing and not accessing treatment, logistic regression models were used to compare persons who accessed treatment with low CD4 cell counts (<50 cells/mm(3)) with those who accessed treatment earlier (CD4 count > or =50 cells/mm(3)), and Weibull survival models were used to compare mortality among those who accessed treatment. RESULTS: Forty percent of people who died from HIV/AIDS-related causes never accessed treatment. Among those who accessed treatment, 16% did so when their CD4 counts were <50 cells/mm(3). Unemployment was associated with delayed access to treatment (odds ratio = 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 1.74). Postsecondary education (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.91) and percent of residents below the poverty line (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.13) were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a setting where treatment for HIV is free of charge, a significant number of HIV-positive persons did not access HAART. Low socioeconomic status was associated with this delay and with increased mortality among persons receiving HAART. Social and health policy initiatives, beyond free and universal health care, are required to optimize access to HAART.

The association between early membrane rupture, latency, clinical chorioamnionitis, neonatal infection, and adverse perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies complicated by preterm prelabour rupture of membranes.

The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between adverse outcomes in twin pregnancies and preterm prelabour rupture of membranes (PPROM). A chart review of 246 consecutive twin pregnancies with confirmed PPROM was conducted. Regression analysis (beta [natural log of the odds ratio] and odds ratio [OR]) was performed to identify independent predictors. Two hundred and forty-six twin pregnancies, 492 liveborns, and 20 neonatal deaths. Mean (SD) PPROM gestational age (GA): 31.3 (3.8) wk; delivery GA: 32.0 (3.3) wk. PPROM < 30 wk was associated with increased parity (OR: 2.66), and log (admission leukocyte count) (OR: 9.99). Shortened latency was associated with PPROM GA (beta = -0.17) and chorioamnionitis (beta = 0.95). Neonatal sepsis was predicted by lower delivery GA (OR: 2.04). Adverse perinatal outcomes were protected against by older GA at PPROM (OR 0.53) and shortened latency (OR 0.73). It was concluded that increased leukocytosis and parity implies an infectious aetiology in earlier PPROM. Increased risk for neonatal sepsis at earlier delivery GA is consistent with gestation-dependent fetal immunocompetence. Early PPROM and long latencies were associated with increased adverse perinatal outcomes.