Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Health Care Costs in Older Community-Dwelling Adults: Importance of Functional Impairment and Frailty.

BACKGROUND: Low neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with adverse health outcomes, but its association with health care costs in older adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association of neighborhood Area Deprivation Index (ADI) with total, inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health care (HHC) costs among older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, and determine whether these associations are explained by multimorbidity, phenotypic frailty, or functional impairments. DESIGN: Four prospective cohort studies linked with each other and with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (mean age 79.2 years, 52.9% female). MAIN MEASURES: ADI of participant residence census tract, Hierarchical Conditions Category multimorbidity score, self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing four activities of daily living), and frailty phenotype. Total, inpatient, outpatient, post-acute SNF, and HHC costs (US 2020 dollars) for 36 months after the index examination. KEY RESULTS: Mean incremental annualized total health care costs adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex increased with ADI ($3317 [95% CI 1274 to 5360] for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile, and overall p-value for ADI variable 0.009). The incremental cost for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile was increasingly attenuated after separate adjustment for multimorbidity ($2407 [95% CI 416 to 4398], overall ADI p-value 0.066), frailty phenotype ($1962 [95% CI 11 to 3913], overall ADI p-value 0.22), or functional impairments ($1246 [95% CI -706 to 3198], overall ADI p-value 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Total health care costs are higher for older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries residing in the most socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. This association was not significant after accounting for the higher prevalence of phenotypic frailty and functional impairments among residents of socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.

Optimizing exoskeleton assistance to improve walking speed and energy economy for older adults.

BACKGROUND: Walking speed and energy economy tend to decline with age. Lower-limb exoskeletons have demonstrated potential to improve either measure, but primarily in studies conducted on healthy younger adults. Promising techniques like optimization of exoskeleton assistance have yet to be tested with older populations, while speed and energy consumption have yet to be simultaneously optimized for any population. METHODS: We investigated the effectiveness of human-in-the-loop optimization of ankle exoskeletons with older adults. Ten healthy adults > 65 years of age (5 females; mean age: 72 ± 3 yrs) participated in approximately 240 min of training and optimization with tethered ankle exoskeletons on a self-paced treadmill. Multi-objective human-in-the-loop optimization was used to identify assistive ankle plantarflexion torque patterns that simultaneously improved self-selected walking speed and metabolic rate. The effects of optimized exoskeleton assistance were evaluated in separate trials. RESULTS: Optimized exoskeleton assistance improved walking performance for older adults. Both objectives were simultaneously improved; self-selected walking speed increased by 8% (0.10 m/s; p = 0.001) and metabolic rate decreased by 19% (p = 0.007), resulting in a 25% decrease in energetic cost of transport (p = 8e-4) compared to walking with exoskeletons applying zero torque. Compared to younger participants in studies optimizing a single objective, our participants required lower exoskeleton torques, experienced smaller improvements in energy use, and required more time for motor adaptation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that exoskeleton assistance can improve walking performance for older adults and show that multiple objectives can be simultaneously addressed through human-in-the-loop optimization.

Replacing sedentary time for physical activity: Does intensity matter for body composition in oldest-old adults?

To assess the independent and combined relationships among objectively measured sedentary time (ST), light intensity PA (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) with muscle mass and fat mass (FM) and how theoretical displacement of these inter-dependent behaviours relates to body composition in oldest-old men. A total of 1046 men participating in the year 14 visit of the prospective Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) cohort study with complete data for accelerometry, dual x-ray absorptiometry, and deuterated creatine dilution (D3Cr) muscle mass were included in the analysis (84.0 ± 3.8 yrs.). Single, partition, and isotemporal substitution models were used to assess the interrelationships between PA intensities and ST with body composition measures, while controlling for relevant confounders. Replacing 30-min of ST with 30-min of MVPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.17, p < 0.001) and higher D3Cr muscle mass, although this was of borderline significance (ß = 0.07, p = 0.05). Replacing 30-min of ST for LPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.15, p < 0.001), but there was no effect on D3Cr muscle mass (p > 0.05). Exchanging ST with any intensity of PA is associated with benefits for FM in oldest-old adult men, although substitution with MVPA may be more beneficial than LPA for maintaining/improving skeletal muscle mass.

Associations of Lean Mass, Muscular Strength, and Physical Function with Trabecular Bone Score in Older Adults.

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND: Trabecular bone score (TBS) is an indirect measurement of bone quality and microarchitecture determined from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) imaging of the lumbar spine. TBS predicts fracture risk independent of bone mass/density, suggesting this assessment of bone quality adds value to the understanding of patients' bone health. While lean mass and muscular strength have been associated with higher bone density and lower fracture risk among older adults, the literature is limited regarding the relationship of lean mass and strength with TBS. The purpose of this study was to determine associations of DXA-determined total body and trunk lean mass, maximal muscular strength, and gait speed as a measure of physical function, with TBS in 141 older adults (65-84 yr, 72.5 +/- 5.1 yr, 74% women). METHODOLOGY: Assessments included lumbar spine (L1-L4) bone density and total body and trunk lean mass by DXA, lower body (leg press) and upper body (seated row) strength by one repetition maximum tests, hand grip strength, and usual gait speed. TBS was derived from the lumbar spine DXA scan. Multivariable linear regression determined the contribution of proposed predictors to TBS. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, sex, and lumbar spine bone density, upper body strength significantly predicted TBS (unadjusted/adjusted R2= 0.16/ 0.11, ß coefficient =0.378, p=0.005), while total body lean mass index showed a trend in the expected direction (ß coefficient =0.243, p=0.053). Gait speed and grip strength were not associated with TBS (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Maximum strength of primarily back muscles measured as the seated row appears important to bone quality as measured by TBS, independent of bone density. Additional research on exercise training targeting back strength is needed to determine its clinical utility in preventing vertebral fractures among older adults.

Slower upper extremity function in older adults with hyperkyphosis negatively impacts the 6-min walk test.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 30% to 40% of older adults have hyperkyphosis, defined as excessive curvature of the thoracic spine. Hyperkyphosis is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine whether hyperkyphosis (Cobb's angle) and upper extremity tasks were independently associated with the 6-min walk test (6MWT) in community-dwelling older adults with hyperkyphosis. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we studied 71 women and 28 men aged 60-87 from the study of hyperkyphosis, exercise, and function trial (SHEAF) who had kyphosis, 3 timed upper extremity tasks and the 6MWT assessed at their baseline visit. We used standing lateral spine radiographs and a standardized protocol for thoracic kyphosis (T4-T12) to measure Cobb angle of kyphosis. In addition, 3 activity of daily living (ADL) extremity tests (putting on and removing a laboratory coat, picking up a penny from the floor, and lifting a 7-lb. book to a shelf) were used. RESULTS: The mean ± SD age was 70.1 ± 6.1 years. The mean ± SD Cobb angle of kyphosis was 57.4 ± 12.5 degrees. On average ± SD, the participants walked 504.8 ± 84.2 m in 6 min and took 2.4 ± 2.2 prescription medications. The mean ± SD height was 164.7 ± 8.5 cm, weight was 68.7 ± 13.1 kg, and BMI was 25.2 ± 4.0 kg/m2. Multivariate regression revealed that age, height, upper extremity book lift task, and the number of prescribed medications were significant predictors of performance on the 6MWT (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: While kyphosis was not associated with the 6MWT, timed tests of upper extremity function indicated that upper body dynamics can affect walking performance. In addition, sociodemographic factors and the number of prescribed medications were significant contributing factors to the 6MWT in older adults with mild to moderate hyperkyphosis. These results illustrate multifactorial influences on physical performance and the need for an integrated and targeted approach in helping older hyperkyphotic adults maintain healthy physical functioning as they age.

Hepatic Steatosis is Negatively Associated with Bone Mineral Density in Children.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between hepatic steatosis and bone mineral density (BMD) in children. In addition, to assess 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in the relationship between hepatic steatosis and BMD. STUDY DESIGN: A community-based sample of 235 children was assessed for hepatic steatosis, BMD, and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Hepatic steatosis was measured by liver magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF). BMD was measured by whole-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 12.5 years (SD 2.5 years). Liver MRI-PDFF ranged from 1.1% to 40.1% with a mean of 9.3% (SD 8.5%). Across this broad spectrum of hepatic fat content, there was a significant negative relationship between liver MRI-PDFF and BMD z score (R = -0.421, P < .001). Across the states of sufficiency, insufficiency, and deficiency, there was a significant negative association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and liver MRI-PDFF (P < .05); however, there was no significant association between vitamin D status and BMD z score (P = .94). Finally, children with clinically low BMD z scores were found to have higher alanine aminotransferase (P < .05) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (P < .05) levels compared with children with normal BMD z scores. CONCLUSIONS: Across the full range of liver MRI-PDFF, there was a strong negative relationship between hepatic steatosis and BMD z score. Given the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and the critical importance of childhood bone mineralization in protecting against osteoporosis, clinicians should prioritize supporting bone development in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Individual and joint trajectories of change in bone, lean mass and physical performance in older men.

BACKGROUND: Declines in bone, muscle and physical performance are associated with adverse health outcomes in older adults. However, few studies have described concurrent age-related patterns of change in these factors. The purpose of this study was to characterize change in four properties of muscle, physical performance, and bone in a prospective cohort study of older men. METHODS: Using repeated longitudinal data from up to four visits across 6.9 years from up to 4681 men (mean age at baseline 72.7 yrs. ±5.3) participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study, we used group-based trajectory models (PROC TRAJ in SAS) to identify age-related patterns of change in four properties of muscle, physical performance, and bone: total hip bone mineral (BMD) density (g/m2) and appendicular lean mass/ht2 (kg/m2), by DXA; grip strength (kg), by hand dynamometry; and walking speed (m/s), by usual walking pace over 6 m. We also described joint trajectories in all pair-wise combinations of these measures. Mean posterior probabilities of placement in each trajectory (or joint membership in latent groups) were used to assess internal reliability of the model. The number of trajectories for each individual factor was limited to three, to ensure that the pair-wise determination of joint trajectories would yield a tractable number of groups as well as model fit considerations. RESULTS: The patterns of change identified were generally similar for all measures, with three district groups declining over time at roughly similar rates; joint trajectories revealed similar patterns with no cross-over or convergence between groups. Mean posterior probabilities for all trajectories were similar and consistently above 0.8 indicating reasonable model fit to the data. CONCLUSIONS: Our description of trajectories of change with age in bone mineral density, grip strength, walking speed and appendicular lean mass found that groups identified by these methods appeared to have little crossover or convergence of change with age, even when considering joint trajectories of change in these factors.

Associations between novel jump test measures, grip strength, and physical performance: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Weight-bearing jump tests measure lower extremity muscle power, velocity, and force, and may be more strongly related to physical performance than grip strength. However, these relationships are not well described in older adults. METHODS: Participants were 1242 older men (mean age 84 ± 4 years) in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. Jump peak power (Watts/kg body weight), force (Newton/kg body weight) at peak power, and velocity (m/s) at peak power were measured by jump tests on a force plate. Grip strength (kg/kg body weight) was assessed by hand-held dynamometry. Physical performance included 400 m walk time (s), 6 m usual gait speed (m/s), and 5-repeated chair stands speed (#/s). RESULTS: In adjusted Pearson correlations, power/kg and velocity moderately correlated with all performance measures (range r = 0.41-0.51; all p < 0.001), while correlations for force/kg and grip strength/kg were weaker (range r = 0.20-0.33; all p < 0.001). Grip strength/kg moderately correlated with power/kg (r = 0.44; p < 0.001) but not velocity or force/kg. In adjusted linear regression with standardized ßs, 1 SD lower power/kg was associated with worse: 400 m walk time (ß = 0.47), gait speed (ß = 0.42), and chair stands speed (ß = 0.43) (all p < 0.05). Associations with velocity were similar (400 m walk time: ß = 0.42; gait speed: ß = 0.38; chair stands speed: ß = 0.37; all p < 0.05). Force/kg and grip strength/kg were more weakly associated with performance (range ß = 0.18-0.28; all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/DISCUSSION: Jump power and velocity had stronger associations with physical performance than jump force or grip strength. This suggests lower extremity power and velocity may be more strongly related to physical performance than lower extremity force or upper extremity strength in older men.

Prediction models of prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures among older women.

It is unknown how well prediction models incorporating multiple risk factors identify women with radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) compared with simpler models and what their value might be in clinical practice to select older women for lateral spine imaging. We compared 4 regression models for predicting PVFx in women aged 68 y and older enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures with a femoral neck T-score ≤ -1.0, using area under receiving operator characteristic curves (AUROC) and a net reclassification index. The AUROC for a model with age, femoral neck bone mineral density, historical height loss (HHL), prior nonspine fracture, body mass index, back pain, and grip strength was only minimally better than that of a more parsimonious model with age, femoral neck bone mineral density, and historical height loss (AUROC 0.689 vs 0.679, p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples <0.001-0.35). The prevalence of PVFx among this older population of Caucasian women remained more than 20% even when women with low probability of PVFx, as estimated by the prediction models, were included in the screened population. These results suggest that lateral spine imaging is appropriate to consider for all Caucasian women aged 70 y and older with low bone mass to identify those with PVFx.

Prediction models of prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures among older men.

No studies have compared how well different prediction models discriminate older men who have a radiographic prevalent vertebral fracture (PVFx) from those who do not. We used area under receiver operating characteristic curves and a net reclassification index to compare how well regression-derived prediction models and nonregression prediction tools identify PVFx among men age ≥65 yr with femoral neck T-score of -1.0 or less enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. The area under receiver operating characteristic for a model with age, bone mineral density, and historical height loss (HHL) was 0.682 compared with 0.692 for a complex model with age, bone mineral density, HHL, prior non-spine fracture, body mass index, back pain, grip strength, smoking, and glucocorticoid use (p values for difference in 5 bootstrapped samples 0.14-0.92). This complex model, using a cutpoint prevalence of 5%, correctly reclassified only a net 5.7% (p = 0.13) of men as having or not having a PVFx compared with a simple criteria list (age ≥ 80 yr, HHL >4 cm, or glucocorticoid use). In conclusion, simple criteria identify older men with PVFx and regression-based models. Future research to identify additional risk factors that more accurately identify older men with PVFx is needed.

Kyphosis and paraspinal muscle composition in older men: a cross-sectional study for the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) research group.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperkyphosis is increased in older men; however, risk factors other than age and vertebral fractures are not well established. We previously reported that poor paraspinal muscle composition contributes to more severe kyphosis in a cohort of both older men and women. METHODS: To specifically evaluate this association in older men, we conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the association of paraspinal muscle composition and degree of thoracic kyphosis in an analytic cohort of 475 randomly selected participants from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study with baseline abdominal quantitative computed tomography (QCT) scans and plain thoracic radiographs. Baseline abdominal QCT scans were used to obtain abdominal body composition measurements of paraspinal muscle and adipose tissue distribution. Supine lateral spine radiographs were used to measure Cobb angle of kyphosis. We examined the linear association of muscle volume, fat volume and kyphosis using loess plots. Multivariate linear models were used to investigate the association between muscle and kyphosis using total muscle volume, as well as individual components of the total muscle volume, including adipose and muscle compartments alone, controlling for age, height, vertebral fractures, and total hip bone mineral density (BMD). We examined these associations among those with no prevalent vertebral fracture and those with BMI < 30 kg/m2. RESULTS: Among men in the analytic cohort, means (SD) were 74 (SD = 5.9) years for age, and 37.5 (SD = 11.9) degrees for Cobb angle of kyphosis. Men in the lowest tertile of total paraspinal muscle volume had greater mean Cobb angle than men in the highest tertile, although test of linear trend across tertiles did not reach statistical significance. Neither lower paraspinal skeletal muscle volume (p-trend = 0.08), or IMAT (p-trend = 0.96) was associated with greater kyphosis. Results were similar among those with no prevalent vertebral fractures. However, among men with BMI < 30 kg/m2, those in the lowest tertile of paraspinal muscle volume had greater adjusted mean kyphosis (40.0, 95% CI: 37.8 - 42.1) compared to the highest tertile (36.3, 95% CI: 34.2 - 38.4). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that differences in body composition may potentially influence kyphosis.

Balancing fracture risk versus risk of mortality before fracture among women aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Most fractures occur in women aged ≥80 years but competing mortality unrelated to fracture may limit the benefit of osteoporosis drug therapy for some women in late life. Our primary aim was to develop separate prediction models for non-spine fracture (NSF) and mortality before fracture to identify subsets of women with varying fracture versus mortality risks. METHODS: Separate prediction models were developed for NSF and mortality before NSF for 4895 women aged ≥80 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) or the Health Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study. Proportional hazards models modified to account for competing mortality were used to identify candidate risk factors for each outcome. Predictors associated with NSF or mortality (p < 0.2) were included in separate competing risk models to estimate the cumulative incidence of NSF and mortality before NSF during 5 years of follow-up. This process was repeated to develop separate prediction models for hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. RESULTS: Significant predictors of NSF (race, total hip BMD, grip strength, prior fracture, falls, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, benzodiazepines, or oral/transdermal estrogen) differed from predictors of mortality before NSF (age, walking speed, multimorbidity, weight change, shrinking, smoking, self-rated health, dementia, and use of warfarin). Within nine subsets of women defined by tertiles of risk, 5-year outcomes varied from 28% NSF and 8% mortality in the high-risk NSF/low-risk mortality subset, to 9% NSF and 22% mortality in the low-risk NSF/high-risk mortality subset. Similar results were seen for predictors of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Considerable variation in 5-year competing mortality risk is present among women in late life with similar 5-year NSF risk. Both fracture risk and life expectancy should inform shared clinical decision-making regarding initiation or continuation of osteoporosis drug therapy for women aged ≥80 years.

A protocol for the prospective study of urinary cadmium with risk of fracture, bone loss, and muscle loss.

Cadmium (Cd) is a heavy metal and natural element found in soil and crops with increasing concentrations linked to phosphate fertilizers and sewage sludge applied to crop lands. A large fraction of older US men and woman have documented Cd exposure. Cd exposure has proven health concerns such as risk of lung cancer from inhalation and impaired renal function; however, growing evidence suggests it also influences bone and muscle health. Given that low levels of Cd could affect bone and muscle, we have designed prospective studies using the two largest and most detailed US studies of bone health in older men and women: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study and the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. We are investigating the association of urinary cadmium (U-Cd), as a surrogate for long-term Cd exposure, with bone and muscle health. Building off suggestive evidence from mechanistic and cross-sectional studies, this will be the first well-powered prospective study of incident fracture outcomes, bone loss, and muscle loss in relation to U-Cd, an established biomarker of long-term Cd exposure. The following is a proposed protocol for the intended study; if successful, the proposed studies could be influential in directing future US policy to decrease Cd exposure in the US population similar to recent policies adopted by the European Union to limit Cd in fertilizers.

Associations Between Walking Speed and Gut Microbiome Composition in Older Men From the MrOS Study.

BACKGROUND: Gut dysbiosis has been linked to frailty, but its association with early mobility decline is unclear. METHODS: First, we determined the cross-sectional associations between walking speed and the gut microbiome in 740 older men (84 ±â€…4 years) from the MrOS cohort with available stool samples and 400 m walking speed measured in 2014-2016. Then, we analyzed the retrospective longitudinal associations between changes in 6 m walking speed (from 2005-2006 to 2014-2016, calculated by simple linear equation) and gut microbiome composition among participants with available data (702/740). We determined gut microbiome composition by 16S sequencing and examined diversity, taxa abundance, and performed network analysis to identify differences in the gut microbiome network of fast versus slow walkers. RESULTS: Faster 400 m walking speed (m/s) was associated with greater microbiome α-diversity (R = 0.11; p = .004). The association between a slower decline in 6 m walking speed and higher α-diversity (R = 0.07; p = .054) approached borderline significance. Faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed were associated with a higher abundance of genus-level bacteria that produce short-chain fatty acids, and possess anti-inflammatory properties, including Paraprevotella, Fusicatenibacter, and Alistipes, after adjusting for potential covariates (p < .05). The gut microbiome networks of participants in the first versus last quartile of walking speed (≤0.9 vs ≥1.2 m/s) exhibited distinct characteristics, including different centrality measures (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a possible relationship between gut microbiome diversity and mobility function, as indicated by the associations between faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed over 10 years with higher gut microbiome diversity in older men.

The Vitamin D Metabolite Ratio Is Associated With Volumetric Bone Density in Older Men.

CONTEXT: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) is the current marker of vitamin D adequacy, but its relationship with bone health has been inconsistent. The ratio of 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 to 25(OH)D3 (vitamin D metabolite ratio or VMR) is a marker of vitamin D that has been associated with longitudinal changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) provides information on bone health beyond standard dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, in that it measures volumetric BMD (vBMD) as well bone strength. The relationship of the VMR with vBMD and bone strength remains unknown. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of the VMR and 25(OH)D3 with vBMD and bone strength in the distal radius and tibia, assessed by HR-pQCT in 545 older men participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. Primary outcomes were vBMD and estimated failure load (EFL, a marker of bone strength) at the distal radius and tibia. RESULTS: The mean age was 84 ± 4 years, 88.3% were White, and 32% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. In adjusted models, each twofold higher VMR was associated with a 9% (3%, 16%) higher total vBMD and a 13% (5%, 21%) higher EFL at the distal radius. Results were similar at the distal tibia. 25(OH)D3 concentrations were not associated with any of the studied outcomes. CONCLUSION: Among older men, a higher VMR was associated with greater vBMD and bone strength while 25(OH)D3 was not. The VMR may serve as a valuable marker of skeletal health in older men.

Hip Fracture Risk Assessment Tools for Adults Aged 80 Years and Older.

Importance: While adults aged 80 years and older account for 70% of hip fractures in the US, performance of fracture risk assessment tools in this population is uncertain. Objective: To compare performance of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD) alone in 5-year hip fracture prediction. Design, Setting and Participants: Prognostic analysis of 3 prospective cohort studies including participants attending an index examination (1997 to 2016) at age 80 years or older. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to April 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants contacted every 4 or 6 months after index examination to ascertain incident hip fractures and vital status. Predicted 5-year hip fracture probabilities calculated using FRAX and Garvan models incorporating FNBMD and FNBMD alone. Model discrimination assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration assessed by comparing observed vs predicted hip fracture probabilities within predicted risk quintiles. Results: A total of 8890 participants were included, with a mean (SD) age at index examination of 82.6 (2.7) years; 4906 participants (55.2%) were women, 866 (9.7%) were Black, 7836 (88.1%) were White, and 188 (2.1%) were other races and ethnicities. During 5-year follow-up, 321 women (6.5%) and 123 men (3.1%) experienced a hip fracture; 818 women (16.7%) and 921 men (23.1%) died before hip fracture. Among women, AUC was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.72) for FRAX, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for Garvan, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for FNBMD alone (FNBMD superior to FRAX, P = .01; and Garvan, P = .01). Among men, AUC was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75) for FRAX, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for Garvan, and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for FNBMD alone (P < .001 Garvan and FNBMD alone superior to FRAX). Among both sexes, Garvan greatly overestimated hip fracture risk among individuals in upper quintiles of predicted risk, while FRAX modestly underestimated risk among those in intermediate quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of adults aged 80 years and older, FRAX and Garvan tools incorporating FNBMD compared with FNBMD alone did not improve 5-year hip fracture discrimination. FRAX modestly underpredicted observed hip fracture probability in intermediate-risk individuals. Garvan markedly overpredicted observed hip fracture probability in high-risk individuals. Until better prediction tools are available, clinicians should prioritize consideration of hip BMD, life expectancy, and patient preferences in decision-making regarding drug treatment initiation for hip fracture prevention in late-life adults.

Difference between kidney function by cystatin C versus creatinine and association with muscle mass and frailty.

BACKGROUND: A higher difference in estimated glomerular filtration rate by cystatin C versus creatinine (eGFRDiff = eGFRCys - eGFRCreat) is associated with decreased frailty risk. Since eGFRCreat is influenced by muscle more than eGFRCys, muscle mass may explain this association. Previous work could not account for this when considering regional muscle measures by imaging. Deuterated creatine (D3Cr) dilution measures whole body muscle mass (kilograms). We aimed to determine whether eGFRDiff is associated with D3Cr muscle mass and whether muscle mass explains the association between eGFRDiff and frailty. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis within the multicenter MrOS Study at Year 14 (visit 4). 490 men of the original cohort of 5994 MrOS participants (aged ≥65 at enrollment) were included. Exposure was eGFRDiff (= eGFRCys - eGFRCreat), calculated using CKD-EPI equations 2012/2021. Primary outcome was D3Cr muscle mass. Secondary outcome was phenotypic pre-frailty (one or two criteria) and frailty (≥three criteria) including the following: weight loss, weakness, slow gait, physical activity, poor energy. The association of eGFRDiff with D3Cr muscle mass was examined by linear regression, that with prefrailty / frailty by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean ± SD age was 84 ± 4 years, eGFRCreat 68 ± 16, eGFRCys 52 ± 16, eGFRDiff -15 ± 12 mL/min/1.73 m2 and D3Cr muscle mass 24 ± 4 kg. For each SD increment in eGFRDiff, D3Cr muscle mass was 1.4 kg higher on average, p < 0.0001 (fully adjusted). Higher eGFRDiff was associated with lower odds of frailty (OR = 0.63 95% CI [0.45;0.89]), but this was partially attenuated and insignificant after additionally adjusting for D3Cr muscle mass (OR = 0.85 95% CI [0.58; 1.24]). CONCLUSIONS: Higher eGFRDiff is associated with lower odds of frailty among late-life men. D3Cr muscle mass accounts for some of this association. This suggests that non-GFR determinants of creatinine and cystatin C, such as muscle mass, play a role in explaining the association of eGFRDiff with frailty. Future studies are needed to confirm.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Random Forest Models for Prediction of Hip Fracture Risk Versus Mortality Risk in the Oldest Old.

Targeted fracture prevention strategies among late-life adults should balance fracture risk versus competing mortality risk. Models have previously been constructed using Fine-Gray subdistribution methods. We used a machine learning method adapted for competing risk survival time to evaluate candidate risk factors and create models for hip fractures and competing mortality among men and women aged 80 years and older using data from three prospective cohorts (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF], Osteoporotic Fracture in Men study [MrOS], Health Aging and Body Composition study [HABC]). Random forest competing risk models were used to estimate absolute 5-year risk of hip fracture and absolute 5-year risk of competing mortality (excluding post-hip fracture deaths). Models were constructed for both outcomes simultaneously; minimal depth was used to rank and select variables for smaller models. Outcome specific models were constructed; variable importance was used to rank and select variables for inclusion in smaller random forest models. Random forest models were compared to simple Fine-Gray models with six variables selected a priori. Top variables for competing risk random forests were frailty and related components in men while top variables were age, bone mineral density (BMD) (total hip, femoral neck), and frailty components in women. In both men and women, outcome specific rankings strongly favored BMD variables for hip fracture prediction while frailty and components were strongly associated with competing mortality. Model discrimination for random forest models varied from 0.65 for mortality in women to 0.81 for hip fracture in men and depended on model choice and variables included. Random models performed slightly better than simple Fine-Gray model for prediction of competing mortality, but similarly for prediction of hip fractures. Random forests can be used to estimate risk of hip fracture and competing mortality among the oldest old. Modest gains in performance for mortality without hip fracture compared to Fine-Gray models must be weighed against increased complexity. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Association of Subjective and Objective Measures of Sleep With Gut Microbiota Composition and Diversity in Older Men: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests bidirectional links between gut microbiota and sleep quality as shared contributors to health. Little is known about the relationship between microbiota and sleep among older persons. METHODS: We used 16S rRNA sequencing to characterize stool microbiota among men (n = 606, mean [standard deviation] age = 83.9 [3.8]) enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study from 2014 to 2016. Sleep was assessed concurrently by a questionnaire (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality index [PSQI]), and activity monitor to examine timing (acrophase) and regularity of patterns (F-statistic). Alpha diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD). Beta diversity was calculated with robust Aitchison distance with matrix completion (RPCA) and phylogenetic-RPCA (PRPCA). Their association with sleep variables was tested with partial distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA). Predictive-ratio biomarkers associated with sleep measurements were identified with CoDaCoRe. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, men with poor sleep (PSQI >5) tended to have lower alpha diversity compared to men with normal sleep (Faith's PD, beta = -0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.30 to 0.01, p = .06). Sleep regularity was significantly associated with RPCA and PRPCA, even after adjusting for site, batch, age, ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes, antidepressant and sleep medication use, and health behaviors (RPCA/PRPCA dbRDA; p = .033/.002). In taxonomic analysis, ratios of 7:6 bacteria for better regularity (p = .0004) and 4:7 for worse self-reported sleep (p = .005) were differentially abundant: some butyrate-producing bacteria were associated with better sleep characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Subjective and objective indicators of sleep quality suggest that older men with better sleep patterns are more likely to harbor butyrate-producing bacteria associated with better health.

The Association of Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity With Clinical Hip Osteoarthritis in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures and the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study Cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic dysregulation frequently co-occurs with obesity, which has been shown to be a risk factor for lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS), alone and in combination with obesity, and hip OA. METHODS: In two parallel cross-sectional analyses, we studied 403 women from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) and 2354 men from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. We used multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 ) and/or MetS (three of five National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) with clinical hip OA, defined as a modified Croft score of 2 or more or total hip replacement, and pain or limited range of motion. Our analysis adjusted for demographics. RESULTS: Approximately 3.5% of SOF women and 5.4% of MrOS men had clinical hip OA. Among women, obesity was not associated with hip OA, yet those with MetS had a 365% higher odds of hip OA (95% CI: 1.37-15.83). Among men, those who had obesity had a 115% higher odds of hip OA (95% CI: 1.39-3.32), yet MetS was not associated with hip OA. There was no interaction between MetS, obesity, and hip OA in either women or men. CONCLUSION: In women, but not in men, MetS was associated with hip OA. In men, but not in women, obesity was associated with hip OA. These findings suggest that mechanical effects of obesity may predominate in the pathogenesis of hip OA in men, whereas metabolic effects predominate in women.