Dengue.

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Beneath the surface: Amino acid variation underlying two decades of dengue virus antigenic dynamics in Bangkok, Thailand.

Neutralizing antibodies are important correlates of protection against dengue. Yet, determinants of variation in neutralization across strains within the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) is imperfectly understood. Studies focus on structural DENV proteins, especially the envelope (E), the primary target of anti-DENV antibodies. Although changes in immune recognition (antigenicity) are often attributed to variation in epitope residues, viral processes influencing conformation and epitope accessibility also affect neutralizability, suggesting possible modulating roles of nonstructural proteins. We estimated effects of residue changes in all 10 DENV proteins on antigenic distances between 348 DENV collected from individuals living in Bangkok, Thailand (1994-2014). Antigenic distances were derived from response of each virus to a panel of twenty non-human primate antisera. Across 100 estimations, excluding 10% of virus pairs each time, 77 of 295 positions with residue variability in E consistently conferred antigenic effects; 52 were within ±3 sites of known binding sites of neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies, exceeding expectations from random assignments of effects to sites (p = 0.037). Effects were also identified for 16 sites on the stem/anchor of E which were only recently shown to become exposed under physiological conditions. For all proteins, except nonstructural protein 2A (NS2A), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) in predicting distances between pairs held out in each estimation did not outperform sequences of equal length derived from all proteins or E, suggesting that antigenic signals present were likely through linkage with E. Adjusted for E, we identified 62/219 sites embedding the excess signals in NS2A. Concatenating these sites to E additionally explained 3.4% to 4.0% of observed variance in antigenic distances compared to E alone (50.5% to 50.8%); RMSE outperformed concatenating E with sites from any protein of the virus (ΔRMSE, 95%IQR: 0.01, 0.05). Our results support examining antigenic determinants beyond the DENV surface.

Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk.

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved 1 . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements)2,3. We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.

Boosting can explain patterns of fluctuations of ratios of inapparent to symptomatic dengue virus infections.

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease worldwide, and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes circulate endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. Numerous studies have shown that the majority of DENV infections are inapparent, and that the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections (I/S) fluctuates substantially year-to-year. For example, in the ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) in Nicaragua, which was established in 2004, the I/S ratio has varied from 16.5:1 in 2006-2007 to 1.2:1 in 2009-2010. However, the mechanisms explaining these large fluctuations are not well understood. We hypothesized that in dengue-endemic areas, frequent boosting (i.e., exposures to DENV that do not lead to extensive viremia and result in a less than fourfold rise in antibody titers) of the immune response can be protective against symptomatic disease, and this can explain fluctuating I/S ratios. We formulate mechanistic epidemiologic models to examine the epidemiologic effects of protective homologous and heterologous boosting of the antibody response in preventing subsequent symptomatic DENV infection. We show that models that include frequent boosts that protect against symptomatic disease can recover the fluctuations in the I/S ratio that we observe, whereas a classic model without boosting cannot. Furthermore, we show that a boosting model can recover the inverse relationship between the number of symptomatic cases and the I/S ratio observed in the PDCS. These results highlight the importance of robust dengue control efforts, as intermediate dengue control may have the potential to decrease the protective effects of boosting.

Phase 1 trial to model primary, secondary, and tertiary dengue using a monovalent vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The four co-circulating and immunologically interactive dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) pose a unique challenge to vaccine design because sub-protective immunity can increase the risk of severe dengue disease. Existing dengue vaccines have lower efficacy in DENV seronegative individuals but higher efficacy in DENV exposed individuals. There is an urgent need to identify immunological measures that are strongly associated with protection against viral replication and disease following sequential exposure to distinct serotypes. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a phase 1 trial wherein healthy adults with neutralizing antibodies to zero (seronegative), one non-DENV3 (heterotypic), or more than one (polytypic) DENV serotype will be vaccinated with the live attenuated DENV3 monovalent vaccine rDEN3Δ30/31-7164. We will examine how pre-vaccine host immunity influences the safety and immunogenicity of DENV3 vaccination in a non-endemic population. We hypothesize that the vaccine will be safe and well tolerated, and all groups will have a significant increase in the DENV1-4 neutralizing antibody geometric mean titer between days 0 and 28. Compared to the seronegative group, the polytypic group will have lower mean peak vaccine viremia, due to protection conferred by prior DENV exposure, while the heterotypic group will have higher mean peak viremia, due to mild enhancement. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include characterizing serological, innate, and adaptive cell responses; evaluating proviral or antiviral contributions of DENV-infected cells; and immunologically profiling the transcriptome, surface proteins, and B and T cell receptor sequences and affinities of single cells in both peripheral blood and draining lymph nodes sampled via serial image-guided fine needle aspiration. DISCUSSION: This trial will compare the immune responses after primary, secondary, and tertiary DENV exposure in naturally infected humans living in non-endemic areas. By evaluating dengue vaccines in a new population and modeling the induction of cross-serotypic immunity, this work may inform vaccine evaluation and broaden potential target populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05691530 registered on January 20, 2023.

Dynamics and determinants of the force of infection of dengue virus from 1994 to 2015 in Managua, Nicaragua.

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Population-level measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally.

COVID-19 Vaccines: Should We Fear ADE?

Might COVID-19 vaccines sensitize humans to antibody-dependent enhanced (ADE) breakthrough infections? This is unlikely because coronavirus diseases in humans lack the clinical, epidemiological, biological, or pathological attributes of ADE disease exemplified by dengue viruses (DENV). In contrast to DENV, SARS and MERS CoVs predominantly infect respiratory epithelium, not macrophages. Severe disease centers on older persons with preexisting conditions and not infants or individuals with previous coronavirus infections. Live virus challenge of animals given SARS or MERS vaccines resulted in vaccine hypersensitivity reactions (VAH), similar to those in humans given inactivated measles or respiratory syncytial virus vaccines. Safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines must avoid VAH.

Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Severe Disease Is Mediated by Serum Viral Load in Pediatric Dengue Virus Infections.

BACKGROUND: Low preexisting anti-dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels are associated with elevated disease severity. While antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue is thought to be driven by viral load, this has not been conclusively shown. We evaluated the association between preinfection anti-DENV antibody titers, viral load, and disease severity among 133 dengue cases in a Nicaraguan pediatric cohort study. METHODS: Viral load was quantified in acute-phase serum by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and analyzed in relation to preinfection antibody titer (measured by inhibition enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) and dengue severity, categorized using 3 definitions. RESULTS: Higher viral load was significantly associated with dengue severity; for each increase of 1.0 log10 copies/mL, the odds of severe dengue increased approximately 50%, regardless of severity definition. Viral load at presentation and the odds of severe disease were highest among patients with low to intermediate preinfection antibody titers and lowest among those with the highest antibody titers. We showed the effect of preinfection antibody titer on disease severity was mediated by viral load for each of 3 dengue severity outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the association between preinfection anti-DENV antibody titer, serum viral load, and disease severity, and provides evidence for the mechanism of antibody-dependent enhancement in dengue cases.

Neutralizing Antibody Responses to Homologous and Heterologous H1 and H3 Influenza A Strains After Vaccination With Inactivated Trivalent Influenza Vaccine Vary With Age and Prior-year Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Prior influenza immunity influences the homologous neutralizing antibody responses elicited by inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV), but neutralizing antibody responses to heterologous strains have not been extensively characterized. METHODS: We analyzed neutralizing antibody titers in individuals aged 1-88 who received the 2009-2010 season IIV before infection by or vaccination against the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Neutralization titers to homologous and heterologous past, recent, and advanced H1 and H3 strains, as well as H2, H5, and H7 strains, were measured using influenza hemagglutinin pseudoviruses. We performed exploratory analyses based on age, prior-year IIV, and prevaccination titer, without controlling for Type I errors. RESULTS: IIV elicited neutralizing antibodies to past and advanced H1 and H3 strains, as well as to an H2 strain in individuals who were likely infected early in life. The neutralization of avian subtype viruses was rare, and there was no imprinting of neutralization responses to novel avian subtype viruses based on the influenza group. Compared to adults, children had higher seroresponse rates to homologous and heterologous strains, and their sera generated larger antigenic distances among strains. Seroresponse rates to homologous and heterologous strains were lower in subjects vaccinated with prior-year IIV, though postimmunization titers were generally high. CONCLUSIONS: IIV elicited neutralizing antibodies to heterologous H1 and H3 strains in all ages groups, but titers and seroresponse rates were usually higher in children. Prior-year vaccination with the same strains tended to blunt IIV neutralization responses to all strains in young and old age groups, yet postimmunization titers were high.

Prior dengue virus infection and risk of Zika: A pediatric cohort in Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in northeast Brazil in 2015 and spread rapidly across the Americas, in populations that have been largely exposed to dengue virus (DENV). The impact of prior DENV infection on ZIKV infection outcome remains unclear. To study this potential impact, we analyzed the large 2016 Zika epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua, in a pediatric cohort with well-characterized DENV infection histories. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Symptomatic ZIKV infections (Zika cases) were identified by real-time reverse transcription PCR and serology in a community-based cohort study that follows approximately 3,700 children aged 2-14 years old. Annual blood samples were used to identify clinically inapparent ZIKV infections using a novel, well-characterized serological assay. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine the relation between prior DENV infection and incidence of symptomatic and inapparent ZIKV infection. The generalized-growth method was used to estimate the effective reproduction number. From January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017, 560 symptomatic ZIKV infections and 1,356 total ZIKV infections (symptomatic and inapparent) were identified, for an overall incidence of 14.0 symptomatic infections (95% CI: 12.9, 15.2) and 36.5 total infections (95% CI: 34.7, 38.6) per 100 person-years. Effective reproduction number estimates ranged from 3.3 to 3.4, depending on the ascending wave period. Incidence of symptomatic and total ZIKV infections was higher in females and older children. Analysis of the effect of prior DENV infection was performed on 3,027 participants with documented DENV infection histories, of which 743 (24.5%) had experienced at least 1 prior DENV infection during cohort follow-up. Prior DENV infection was inversely associated with risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection in the total cohort population (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.81; p < 0.005) and with risk of symptomatic presentation given ZIKV infection (IRR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.86) when adjusted for age, sex, and recent DENV infection (1-2 years before ZIKV infection). Recent DENV infection was significantly associated with decreased risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection when adjusted for age and sex, but not when adjusted for prior DENV infection. Prior or recent DENV infection did not affect the rate of total ZIKV infections. Our findings are limited to a pediatric population and constrained by the epidemiology of the site. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support that prior DENV infection may protect individuals from symptomatic Zika. More research is needed to address the possible immunological mechanism(s) of cross-protection between ZIKV and DENV and whether DENV immunity also modulates other ZIKV infection outcomes such as neurological or congenital syndromes.

Neutralizing antibody titers against dengue virus correlate with protection from symptomatic infection in a longitudinal cohort.

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect ∼ 390 million people annually; up to 100 million infections are symptomatic, and 500,000 cases progress to severe disease. Exposure to a heterologous DENV serotype, the specific infecting DENV strains, and the interval of time between infections, as well as age, ethnicity, genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities of the host, are all risk factors for severe dengue. In contrast, neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are thought to provide long-lived protection against symptomatic infection and severe dengue. The objective of dengue vaccines is to provide balanced protection against all DENV serotypes simultaneously. However, the association between homotypic and heterotypic NAb titers and protection against symptomatic infection remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the titer of preinfection cross-reactive NAbs correlates with reduced likelihood of symptomatic secondary infection in a longitudinal pediatric dengue cohort in Nicaragua. The protective effect of NAb titers on infection outcome remained significant when controlled for age, number of years between infections, and epidemic force, as well as with relaxed or more stringent criteria for defining inapparent DENV infections. Further, individuals with higher NAb titers immediately after primary infection had delayed symptomatic infections compared with those with lower titers. However, overall NAb titers increased modestly in magnitude and remained serotype cross-reactive in the years between infections, possibly due to reexposure. These findings establish that anti-DENV NAb titers correlate with reduced probability of symptomatic DENV infection and provide insights into longitudinal characteristics of antibody-mediated immunity to DENV in an endemic setting.

Longitudinal Analysis of Antibody Cross-neutralization Following Zika Virus and Dengue Virus Infection in Asia and the Americas.

Background: The 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are related mosquito-borne flaviviruses of major importance globally. While monoclonal antibodies and plasma from DENV-immune donors can neutralize or enhance ZIKV in vitro and in small-animal models, and vice versa, the extent, duration, and significance of cross-reactivity in humans remains unknown, particularly in flavivirus-endemic regions. Methods: We studied neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in longitudinal serologic specimens collected through 3 years after infection from people in Latin America and Asia with laboratory-confirmed DENV infections. We also evaluated neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in patients with Zika through 6 months after infection. Results: In patients with Zika, the highest neutralizing antibody titers were to ZIKV, with low-level cross-reactivity to DENV1-4 that was greater in DENV-immune individuals. We found that, in primary and secondary DENV infections, neutralizing antibody titers to ZIKV were markedly lower than to the infecting DENV and heterologous DENV serotypes. Cross-neutralization was greatest in early convalescence, then ZIKV neutralization decreased, remaining at low levels over time. Conclusions: Patterns of antibody cross-neutralization suggest that ZIKV lies outside the DENV serocomplex. Neutralizing antibody titers can distinguish ZIKV from DENV infections when all viruses are analyzed simultaneously. These findings have implications for understanding natural immunity and vaccines.

Evolutionarily Successful Asian 1 Dengue Virus 2 Lineages Contain One Substitution in Envelope That Increases Sensitivity to Polyclonal Antibody Neutralization.

The 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4) cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide. DENV-2 Asian 1 (A1) genotype viruses replaced the Asian-American (AA) genotype in Vietnam and Cambodia, after which A1 viruses containing Q or M at envelope (E) residue 160 became more prevalent than those with residue 160K in both countries (2008-2011). We investigated whether these substitutions conferred a fitness advantage by measuring neutralizing antibody titer against reporter virus particles (RVPs) representing AA, A1-160K, A1-160Q, and A1-160M, using patient sera from Vietnam and a well-characterized Nicaraguan cohort. Surprisingly, we found that A1-160Q and A1-160M RVPs were better neutralized by heterologous antisera than A1-160K. Despite this, Vietnamese patients infected with A1-160Q or A1-160M viruses had higher viremia levels than those infected with A1-160K. We thus found that independent lineages in Vietnam and Cambodia acquired a substitution in E that significantly increased polyclonal neutralization but nonetheless were successful in disseminating and infecting human hosts.

Preexisting neutralizing antibody responses distinguish clinically inapparent and apparent dengue virus infections in a Sri Lankan pediatric cohort.

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect humans. The clinical presentation of DENV infection ranges from inapparent infection to dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. We analyzed samples from a pediatric dengue cohort study in Sri Lanka to explore whether antibody responses differentiated clinically apparent infections from clinically inapparent infections. In DENV-naive individuals exposed to primary DENV infections, we observed no difference in the quantity or quality of acquired antibodies between inapparent and apparent infections. Children who experienced primary infections had broad, serotype-cross-neutralizing antibody responses that narrowed in breadth to a single serotype over a 12-month period after infection. In DENV immune children who were experiencing a repeat infection, we observed a strong association between preexisting neutralizing antibodies and clinical outcome. Notably, children with preexisting monospecific neutralizing antibody responses were more likely to develop fever than children with cross-neutralizing responses. Preexisting DENV neutralizing antibodies are correlated with protection from dengue disease.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

Protection against symptomatic dengue infection by neutralizing antibodies varies by infection history and infecting serotype.

Dengue viruses (DENV1-4) are the most prevalent arboviruses in humans and a major public health concern. Understanding immune mechanisms that modulate DENV infection outcome is critical for vaccine development. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are an essential component of the protective immune response, yet their measurement often relies on a single cellular substrate and partially mature virions, which does not capture the full breadth of neutralizing activity and may lead to biased estimations of nAb potency. Here, we analyze 125 samples collected after one or more DENV infections but prior to subsequent symptomatic or inapparent DENV1, DENV2, or DENV3 infections from a long-standing pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. By assessing nAb responses using Vero cells with or without DC-SIGN and with mature or partially mature virions, we find that nAb potency and the protective NT50 cutoff are greatly influenced by cell substrate and virion maturation state. Additionally, the correlation between nAb titer and protection from disease depends on prior infection history and infecting serotype. Finally, we uncover variations in nAb composition that contribute to protection from symptomatic infection differently after primary and secondary prior infection. These findings have important implications for identifying antibody correlates of protection for vaccines and natural infections.

Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1.

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk.

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Dengue virus IgG and serotype-specific neutralizing antibody titers measured with standard and mature viruses are associated with protection.

Recent work demonstrates the limitations of the standard dengue virus (DENV) neutralization assay to predict protection against dengue. We perform studies to compare how a commercial IgG ELISA, envelope domain III (EDIII) or non-structural protein 1 (NS1) binding antibodies, and titers from plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs) using reference standard and clinical mature viruses are associated with dengue disease. Healthy children (n = 1,206) in Cebu, Philippines were followed for 5 years. High ELISA values (≥3) were associated with reduced dengue probability relative to naïve children (3% vs. 10%, p = 0.008), but antibody binding EDIII or NS1 from each serotype had no association. High standard and mature geometric mean PRNT titers were associated with reduced dengue disease overall (p < 0.01), and high DENV2 and DENV3 titers in both assays provided protection against the matched serotype (p < 0.02). However, while 52% of dengue cases had standard virus PRNT titers > 100, only 2% of cases had mature virus PRNT titers > 100 (p < 0.001), indicating a lower, more consistent threshold for protection. Each assay may be useful for different purposes as correlates of protection in population and vaccine trials.