Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise.

Coastal wetlands (mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass) sustain the highest rates of carbon sequestration per unit area of all natural systems1,2, primarily because of their comparatively high productivity and preservation of organic carbon within sedimentary substrates3. Climate change and associated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) have been proposed to increase the rate of organic-carbon burial in coastal wetlands in the first half of the twenty-first century4, but these carbon-climate feedback effects have been modelled to diminish over time as wetlands are increasingly submerged and carbon stores become compromised by erosion4,5. Here we show that tidal marshes on coastlines that experienced rapid RSLR over the past few millennia (in the late Holocene, from about 4,200 years ago to the present) have on average 1.7 to 3.7 times higher soil carbon concentrations within 20 centimetres of the surface than those subject to a long period of sea-level stability. This disparity increases with depth, with soil carbon concentrations reduced by a factor of 4.9 to 9.1 at depths of 50 to 100 centimetres. We analyse the response of a wetland exposed to recent rapid RSLR following subsidence associated with pillar collapse in an underlying mine and demonstrate that the gain in carbon accumulation and elevation is proportional to the accommodation space (that is, the space available for mineral and organic material accumulation) created by RSLR. Our results suggest that coastal wetlands characteristic of tectonically stable coastlines have lower carbon storage owing to a lack of accommodation space and that carbon sequestration increases according to the vertical and lateral accommodation space6 created by RSLR. Such wetlands will provide long-term mitigating feedback effects that are relevant to global climate-carbon modelling.

Practical Guide to Measuring Wetland Carbon Pools and Fluxes.

Wetlands cover a small portion of the world, but have disproportionate influence on global carbon (C) sequestration, carbon dioxide and methane emissions, and aquatic C fluxes. However, the underlying biogeochemical processes that affect wetland C pools and fluxes are complex and dynamic, making measurements of wetland C challenging. Over decades of research, many observational, experimental, and analytical approaches have been developed to understand and quantify pools and fluxes of wetland C. Sampling approaches range in their representation of wetland C from short to long timeframes and local to landscape spatial scales. This review summarizes common and cutting-edge methodological approaches for quantifying wetland C pools and fluxes. We first define each of the major C pools and fluxes and provide rationale for their importance to wetland C dynamics. For each approach, we clarify what component of wetland C is measured and its spatial and temporal representativeness and constraints. We describe practical considerations for each approach, such as where and when an approach is typically used, who can conduct the measurements (expertise, training requirements), and how approaches are conducted, including considerations on equipment complexity and costs. Finally, we review key covariates and ancillary measurements that enhance the interpretation of findings and facilitate model development. The protocols that we describe to measure soil, water, vegetation, and gases are also relevant for related disciplines such as ecology. Improved quality and consistency of data collection and reporting across studies will help reduce global uncertainties and develop management strategies to use wetlands as nature-based climate solutions. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13157-023-01722-2.

Mangrove dynamics and blue carbon sequestration.

We monitored coastal wetland vertical accretion, elevation gain and surface carbon (C) at Homebush Bay, Australia over 18 years (2000-2017) in three settings initially characterized by saltmarsh, mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone and mangrove-dominated zones. During this time, the saltmarsh transitioned to mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone, and the mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone transitioned to mangrove, consistent with vegetation transitions observed across the east Australian continent in recent decades. In spite of mangrove recruitment and thickening in the former saltmarsh zone, and the dominance of mangrove root material as a contributing C source, the rate of C accumulation in the former saltmarsh zone did not change over the study period, and there was no significant increase in surface elevation. This contrasted with the response of sites with a longer history of mangrove colonization, which showed strong accretion and C accumulation over the period. The result suggests that the C accumulation and surface elevation gains made as a result of mangrove colonization may not be observable over initial decades, but will be significant in the longer term as forests reach maturity.

Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes.

Salt marsh and mangrove have been recognized as being among the most valuable ecosystem types globally in terms of their supply of ecosystem services and support for human livelihoods. These coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with evidence of global shifts in the distribution of mangroves, including encroachment into salt marshes. The encroachment of woody mangrove shrubs and trees into herbaceous salt marshes may represent a substantial change in ecosystem structure, although resulting impacts on ecosystem functions and service provisions are largely unknown. In this review, we assess changes in ecosystem services associated with mangrove encroachment. While there is quantitative evidence to suggest that mangrove encroachment may enhance carbon storage and the capacity of a wetland to increase surface elevation in response to sea-level rise, for most services there has been no direct assessment of encroachment impact. On the basis of current understanding of ecosystem structure and function, we theorize that mangrove encroachment may increase nutrient storage and improve storm protection, but cause declines in habitat availability for fauna requiring open vegetation structure (such as migratory birds and foraging bats) as well as the recreational and cultural activities associated with this fauna (e.g., birdwatching and/or hunting). Changes to provisional services such as fisheries productivity and cultural services are likely to be site specific and dependent on the species involved. We discuss the need for explicit experimental testing of the effects of encroachment on ecosystem services in order to address key knowledge gaps, and present an overview of the options available to coastal resource managers during a time of environmental change.

Seventy years of continuous encroachment substantially increases 'blue carbon' capacity as mangroves replace intertidal salt marshes.

Shifts in ecosystem structure have been observed over recent decades as woody plants encroach upon grasslands and wetlands globally. The migration of mangrove forests into salt marsh ecosystems is one such shift which could have important implications for global 'blue carbon' stocks. To date, attempts to quantify changes in ecosystem function are essentially constrained to climate-mediated pulses (30 years or less) of encroachment occurring at the thermal limits of mangroves. In this study, we track the continuous, lateral encroachment of mangroves into two south-eastern Australian salt marshes over a period of 70 years and quantify corresponding changes in biomass and belowground C stores. Substantial increases in biomass and belowground C stores have resulted as mangroves replaced salt marsh at both marine and estuarine sites. After 30 years, aboveground biomass was significantly higher than salt marsh, with biomass continuing to increase with mangrove age. Biomass increased at the mesohaline river site by 130 ± 18 Mg biomass km(-2)  yr(-1) (mean ± SE), a 2.5 times higher rate than the marine embayment site (52 ± 10 Mg biomass km(-2) yr(-1) ), suggesting local constraints on biomass production. At both sites, and across all vegetation categories, belowground C considerably outweighed aboveground biomass stocks, with belowground C stocks increasing at up to 230 ± 62 Mg C km(-2) yr(-1) (± SE) as mangrove forests developed. Over the past 70 years, we estimate mangrove encroachment may have already enhanced intertidal biomass by up to 283 097 Mg and belowground C stocks by over 500 000 Mg in the state of New South Wales alone. Under changing climatic conditions and rising sea levels, global blue carbon storage may be enhanced as mangrove encroachment becomes more widespread, thereby countering global warming.

Comparison of marine macrophytes for their contributions to blue carbon sequestration.

Many marine ecosystems have the capacity for long-term storage of organic carbon (C) in what are termed "blue carbon" systems. While blue carbon systems (saltmarsh, mangrove, and seagrass) are efficient at long-term sequestration of organic carbon (C), much of their sequestered C may originate from other (allochthonous) habitats. Macroalgae, due to their high rates of production, fragmentation, and ability to be transported, would also appear to be able to make a significant contribution as C donors to blue C habitats. In order to assess the stability of macroalgal tissues and their likely contribution to long-term pools of C, we applied thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to 14 taxa of marine macroalgae and coastal vascular plants. We assessed the structural complexity of multiple lineages of plant and tissue types with differing cell wall structures and found that decomposition dynamics varied significantly according to differences in cell wall structure and composition among taxonomic groups and tissue function (photosynthetic vs. attachment). Vascular plant tissues generally exhibited greater stability with a greater proportion of mass loss at temperatures > 300 degrees C (peak mass loss -320 degrees C) than macroalgae (peak mass loss between 175-300 degrees C), consistent with the lignocellulose matrix of vascular plants. Greater variation in thermogravimetric signatures within and among macroalgal taxa, relative to vascular plants, was also consistent with the diversity of cell wall structure and composition among groups. Significant degradation above 600 degrees C for some macroalgae, as well as some belowground seagrass tissues, is likely due to the presence of taxon-specific compounds. The results of this study highlight the importance of the lignocellulose matrix to the stability of vascular plant sources and the potentially significant role of refractory, taxon-specific compounds (carbonates, long-chain lipids, alginates, xylans, and sulfated polysaccharides) from macroalgae and seagrasses for their long-term sedimentary C storage. This study shows that marine macroalgae do contain refractory compounds and thus may be more valuable to long-term carbon sequestration than we previously have considered.

Quantifying blue carbon stocks and the role of protected areas to conserve coastal wetlands.

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

The lunar nodal cycle controls mangrove canopy cover on the Australian continent.

Long-phase (interannual) tidal cycles have been shown to influence coastal flooding and sedimentation, but their role in shaping the extent and condition of tidal wetlands has received little attention. Here, we show that the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle, popularly termed the "lunar wobble," is a dominant control over the expansion and contraction of mangrove canopy cover over much of the Australian continent. Furthermore, the contrasting phasing of the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal settings has mediated the severity of drought impacts in northern bioregions. Long-phase tidal cycles regulate maximum tide heights, are an important control over mangrove canopy cover, and may influence mangrove ecosystem services including forest productivity and carbon sequestration at regional scales.

Ecosystem type drives tea litter decomposition and associated prokaryotic microbiome communities in freshwater and coastal wetlands at a continental scale.

Wetland ecosystems are critical to the regulation of the global carbon cycle, and there is a high demand for data to improve carbon sequestration and emission models and predictions. Decomposition of plant litter is an important component of ecosystem carbon cycling, yet a lack of knowledge on decay rates in wetlands is an impediment to predicting carbon preservation. Here, we aim to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the decomposition of standardised green and rooibos tea litter over one year within freshwater and coastal wetland soils across four climates in Australia. We also captured changes in the prokaryotic members of the tea-associated microbiome during this process. Ecosystem type drove differences in tea decay rates and prokaryotic microbiome community composition. Decomposition rates were up to 2-fold higher in mangrove and seagrass soils compared to freshwater wetlands and tidal marshes, in part due to greater leaching-related mass loss. For tidal marshes and freshwater wetlands, the warmer climates had 7-16% less mass remaining compared to temperate climates after a year of decomposition. The prokaryotic microbiome community composition was significantly different between substrate types and sampling times within and across ecosystem types. Microbial indicator analyses suggested putative metabolic pathways common across ecosystems were used to breakdown the tea litter, including increased presence of putative methylotrophs and sulphur oxidisers linked to the introduction of oxygen by root in-growth over the incubation period. Structural equation modelling analyses further highlighted the importance of incubation time on tea decomposition and prokaryotic microbiome community succession, particularly for rooibos tea that experienced a greater proportion of mass loss between three and twelve months compared to green tea. These results provide insights into ecosystem-level attributes that affect both the abiotic and biotic controls of belowground wetland carbon turnover at a continental scale, while also highlighting new decay dynamics for tea litter decomposing under longer incubations.

Blue carbon potential of coastal wetland restoration varies with inundation and rainfall.

There is a growing interest in how the management of 'blue carbon' sequestered by coastal wetlands can influence global greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. A promising intervention is through restoring tidal exchange to impounded coastal wetlands for reduced methane (CH4) emissions. We monitored an impounded wetland's GHG flux (CO2 and CH4) prior to and following tidal reinstatement. We found that biogeochemical responses varied across an elevation gradient. The low elevation zone experienced a greater increase in water level and an associated greater marine transition in the sediment microbial community (16 S rRNA) than the high elevation zone. The low elevation zone's GHG emissions had a reduced sustained global warming potential of 264 g m-2 yr-1 CO2-e over 100 years, and it increased to 351 g m-2 yr-1 with the removal of extreme rain events. However, emission benefits were achieved through a reduction in CO2 emissions, not CH4 emissions. Overall, the wetland shifted from a prior CH4 sink (-0.07 to -1.74 g C m-2 yr-1) to a variable sink or source depending on the elevation site and rainfall. This highlights the need to consider a wetland's initial GHG emissions, elevation and future rainfall trends when assessing the efficacy of tidal reinstatement for GHG emission control.

The future of Blue Carbon science.

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority. Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

Author Correction: The future of Blue Carbon science.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation.

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5-11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70-185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055-1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1-3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12-21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Converting beach-cast seagrass wrack into biochar: A climate-friendly solution to a coastal problem.

Excessive accumulation of plant 'wrack' on beaches as a result of coastal development and beach modification (e.g. groin installation) is a global problem. This study investigated the potential for converting beach-cast seagrass wrack into biochar as a 'climate-friendly' disposal option for resource managers. Wrack samples from 11 seagrass species around Australia were initially screened for their biochar potential using pyrolysis techniques, and then two species - Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri - underwent detailed analyses. Both species had high levels of refractory materials and high conversion efficiency (48-57%) of plant carbon into biochar carbon, which is comparable to high-quality terrestrial biochar products. P. australis wrack gave higher biochar yields than Z. muelleri consistent with its higher initial carbon content. According to 13C NMR, wrack predominantly comprised carbohydrates, protein, and lignin. Aryl carbon typical of pyrogenic materials dominated the spectrum of the thermally-altered organic materials. Overall, this study provides the first data on the feasibility of generating biochar from seagrass wrack, showing that biocharring offers a promising climate-friendly alternative to disposal of beach wrack in landfill by avoiding a portion of the greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise occur if wrack was left to decompose.