Breath-holding physiology, radiological severity and adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 remains a major cause of respiratory failure, and means to identify future deterioration is needed. We recently developed a prediction score based on breath-holding manoeuvres (desaturation and maximal duration) to predict incident adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Here we prospectively validated our breath-holding prediction score in COVID-19 patients, and assessed associations with radiological scores of pulmonary involvement. METHODS: Hospitalized COVID-19 patients (N = 110, three recruitment centres) performed breath-holds at admission to provide a prediction score (Messineo et al.) based on mean desaturation (20-s breath-holds) and maximal breath-hold duration, plus baseline saturation, body mass index and cardiovascular disease. Odds ratios for incident adverse outcomes (composite of bi-level ventilatory support, ICU admission and death) were described for patients with versus without elevated scores (>0). Regression examined associations with chest x-ray (Brixia score) and computed tomography (CT; 3D-software quantification). Additional comparisons were made with the previously-validated '4C-score'. RESULTS: Elevated prediction score was associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes (N = 12/110), OR[95%CI] = 4.54[1.17-17.83], p = 0.030 (positive predictive value = 9/48, negative predictive value = 59/62). Results were diminished with removal of mean desaturation from the prediction score (OR = 3.30[0.93-11.72]). The prediction score rose linearly with Brixia score (ß[95%CI] = 0.13[0.02-0.23], p = 0.026, N = 103) and CT-based quantification (ß = 1.02[0.39-1.65], p = 0.002, N = 45). Mean desaturation was also associated with both radiological assessment. Elevated 4C-scores (≥high-risk category) had a weaker association with adverse outcomes (OR = 2.44[0.62-9.56]). CONCLUSION: An elevated breath-holding prediction score is associated with almost five-fold increased adverse COVID-19 outcome risk, and with pulmonary deficits observed in chest imaging. Breath-holding may identify COVID-19 patients at risk of future respiratory failure.

Late isocaloric eating increases hunger, decreases energy expenditure, and modifies metabolic pathways in adults with overweight and obesity.

Late eating has been linked to obesity risk. It is unclear whether this is caused by changes in hunger and appetite, energy expenditure, or both, and whether molecular pathways in adipose tissues are involved. Therefore, we conducted a randomized, controlled, crossover trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02298790) to determine the effects of late versus early eating while rigorously controlling for nutrient intake, physical activity, sleep, and light exposure. Late eating increased hunger (p < 0.0001) and altered appetite-regulating hormones, increasing waketime and 24-h ghrelin:leptin ratio (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.006, respectively). Furthermore, late eating decreased waketime energy expenditure (p = 0.002) and 24-h core body temperature (p = 0.019). Adipose tissue gene expression analyses showed that late eating altered pathways involved in lipid metabolism, e.g., p38 MAPK signaling, TGF-ß signaling, modulation of receptor tyrosine kinases, and autophagy, in a direction consistent with decreased lipolysis/increased adipogenesis. These findings show converging mechanisms by which late eating may result in positive energy balance and increased obesity risk.