Concomitant Transmission of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Viruses in Brazil: Clinical and Epidemiological Findings From Surveillance for Acute Febrile Illness.

BACKGROUND: Since their emergence in the Americas, chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses co-circulate with dengue virus (DENV), hampering clinical diagnosis. We investigated clinical and epidemiological characteristics of arboviral infections during the introduction and spread of CHIKV and ZIKV through northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Surveillance for arboviral diseases among febrile patients was performed at an emergency health unit of Salvador, Brazil, between September 2014 and July 2016. We interviewed patients to collect data on symptoms, reviewed medical records to obtain the presumptive diagnoses, and performed molecular and serological testing to confirm DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV, or nonspecific flavivirus (FLAV) diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 948 participants, 247 (26.1%) had an acute infection, of which 224 (23.6%) were single infections (DENV, 32 [3.4%]; CHIKV, 159 [16.7%]; ZIKV, 13 [1.4%]; and FLAV, 20 [2.1%]) and 23 (2.4%) coinfections (DENV/CHIKV, 13 [1.4%]; CHIKV/FLAV, 9 [0.9%]; and DENV/ZIKV, 1 [0.1%]). An additional 133 (14.0%) patients had serological evidence for a recent arboviral infection. Patients with ZIKV presented with rash and pruritus (69.2% each) more frequently than those with DENV (37.5% and 31.2%, respectively) and CHIKV (22.9% and 14.7%, respectively) (P < .001 for both comparisons). Conversely, arthralgia was more common in CHIKV (94.9%) and FLAV/CHIKV (100.0%) than in DENV (59.4%) and ZIKV (53.8%) (P < .001). A correct presumptive clinical diagnosis was made for 9%-23% of the confirmed patients. CONCLUSIONS: Arboviral infections are frequent causes of febrile illness. Coinfections are not rare events during periods of intense, concomitant arboviral transmission. Given the challenge to clinically distinguish these infections, there is an urgent need for rapid, point-of-care, multiplex diagnostics.

Diagnostic performance of commercial IgM and IgG enzyme-linked immunoassays (ELISAs) for diagnosis of Zika virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Serologic detection of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections is challenging because of antigenic similarities among flaviviruses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of commercial ZIKV IgM and IgG enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) kits. METHODS: We used sera from febrile patients with RT-PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection to determine sensitivity and sera from RT-PCR-confirmed dengue cases and blood donors, both of which were collected before ZIKV epidemics in Brazil (2009-2011 and 2013, respectively) to determine specificity. RESULTS: The ZIKV IgM-ELISA positivity among RT-PCR ZIKV confirmed cases was 0.0% (0/14) and 12.5% (1/8) for acute- and convalescent-phase sera, respectively, while its specificity was 100.0% (58/58) and 98.3% (58/59) for acute- and convalescent-phase sera of dengue patients, and 100.0% (23/23) for blood donors. The ZIKV IgG-ELISA sensitivity was 100.0% (6/6) on convalescent-phase sera from RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV patients, while its specificity was 27.3% (15/55) on convalescent-phase sera from dengue patients and 45.0% (9/20) on blood donors' sera. The ZIKV IgG-ELISA specificity among dengue confirmed cases was much greater among patients with primary dengue (92.3%; 12/13), compared to secondary dengue (7.1%; 3/42). CONCLUSIONS: In a setting of endemic dengue transmission, the ZIKV IgM-ELISA had high specificity, but poor sensitivity. In contrast, the ZIKV IgG-ELISA showed low specificity, particularly for patients previously exposed to dengue infections. This suggests that this ZIKV IgM-ELISA is not useful in confirming a diagnosis of ZIKV infection in suspected patients, whereas the IgG-ELISA is more suitable for ZIKV diagnosis among travelers, who reside in areas free of flavivirus transmission, rather than for serosurveys in dengue-endemic areas.

Congenital brain abnormalities during a Zika virus epidemic in Salvador, Brazil, April 2015 to July 2016.

BackgroundNorth-eastern Brazil was the region most affected by the outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome that followed the 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, with thousands of suspected microcephaly cases reported to the health authorities, mostly between late 2015 and early 2016. Aim: To describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of the outbreak of congenital brain abnormalities (CBAs) and to evaluate the accuracy of different head circumference screening criteria in predicting CBAs.MethodBetween April 2015 and July 2016, the Centers for Information and Epidemiologic Surveillance of Salvador, Brazil investigated the reported cases suspected of microcephaly and, based on intracranial imaging studies, confirmed or excluded a diagnosis of CBA. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of different head circumference screening criteria in predicting CBAs were calculated.ResultsOf the 365 investigated cases, 166 (45.5%) had confirmed CBAs. The most common findings were intracranial calcifications and ventriculomegaly in 143 (86.1%) and 111 (66.9%) of the 166 CBA cases, respectively. Prevalence of CBAs peaked in December 2015 (2.24 cases/100 live births). Cases of CBAs were significantly more likely to have been born preterm and to mothers who had clinical manifestations of arboviral infection during pregnancy. None of the head circumference screening criteria performed optimally in predicting CBAs.ConclusionThis study highlights the magnitude of neurological consequences of the ZIKV epidemic and the limitations of head circumference in accurately identifying children with CBA. Gestational symptoms compatible with ZIKV infection should be combined with imaging studies for efficient detection of suspect CBAs during ZIKV epidemics.

Time Lags between Exanthematous Illness Attributed to Zika Virus, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and Microcephaly, Salvador, Brazil.

Zika virus infection emerged as a public health emergency after increasing evidence for its association with neurologic disorders and congenital malformations. In Salvador, Brazil, outbreaks of acute exanthematous illness (AEI) attributed to Zika virus, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), and microcephaly occurred in 2015. We investigated temporal correlations and time lags between these outbreaks to identify a common link between them by using epidemic curves and time series cross-correlations. Number of GBS cases peaked after a lag of 5-9 weeks from the AEI peak. Number of suspected cases of microcephaly peaked after a lag of 30-33 weeks from the AEI peak, which corresponded to time of potential infections of pregnant mothers during the first trimester. These findings support the association of GBS and microcephaly with Zika virus infection and provide evidence for a temporal relationship between timing of arboviral infection of pregnant women during the first trimester and birth outcome.

Influenza-like illness in an urban community of Salvador, Brazil: incidence, seasonality and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Our understanding of the epidemiology of influenza is limited in tropical regions, which in turn has hampered identifying optimal region-specific policy to diminish disease burden. Influenza-like illness (ILI) is a clinical diagnosis that can be used as a surrogate for influenza. This study aimed to define the incidence and seasonality of ILI and to assess its association with climatic variables and school calendar in an urban community in the tropical region of Salvador, Brazil. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2013, we conducted enhanced community-based surveillance for acute febrile illnesses (AFI) among patients ≥ 5 years of age in a slum community emergency unit in Salvador, Brazil. ILI was defined as a measured temperature of ≥ 37.8 °C or reported fever in a patient with cough or sore throat for ≤ 7 days, and negative test results for dengue and leptospirosis. Seasonality was analyzed with a harmonic regression model. Negative binomial regression models were used to correlate ILI incidence with rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and the number of days per month that schools were in session while controlling for seasonality. RESULTS: There were 2,651 (45.6% of 5,817 AFI patients) ILI cases with a mean annual incidence of 60 cases/1,000 population (95% CI 58-62). Risk of ILI was highest among 5-9 year olds with an annual incidence of 105 cases/1,000 population in 2009. ILI had a clear seasonal pattern with peaks between the 35-40th week of the year. ILI peaks were higher and earlier in 5-9 year olds compared with > 19 year olds. No association was seen between ILI and precipitation, relative humidity or temperature. There was a significant association between the incidence of ILI in children 5-9 years of age and number of scheduled school days per month. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a significant burden of ILI with distinct seasonality in the Brazilian tropics and highest rates among young school-age children. Seasonal peaks of ILI in children 5-9 years of age were positively associated with the number of school days, indicating that children may play a role in the timing of seasonal influenza transmission.

Porcine Deltacoronavirus Occurrence in the United States Breeding Herds since Its Emergence in 2014.

PDCoV, an enveloped RNA virus, causes atrophic enteritis in neonatal piglets, leading to diarrhea, malabsorption, dehydration, and death. The study aims to fill the gap in the current epidemiological information about PDCoV in the U.S. pig population after its emergence in 2014. Data from the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP) between January 2015 and December 2023 were analyzed, representing approximately 60% of the U.S. breeding herd. Participating herds report weekly PDCoV health status. In total, 244 PDCoV outbreaks occurred in 186 sites from 22 production systems across 16 states. Case counts peaked during winter, and incidence ranged from 0.44% in 2017 to 4.28% in 2023. For sites that experienced more than one PDCoV outbreak during the study period, the interval between outbreaks was a median of 2.11 years. The South and Midwest regions reported the majority of cases. In 2017, a shift in the spatial distribution of cases from the Midwest to the South was observed. The findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and strengthened control measures to mitigate the impact of PDCoV in U.S. breeding herds.

Improvements in swine herd biosecurity reduce the incidence risk of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in breeding herds in the Midwestern United States.

OBJECTIVE: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a significant disease of swine. The purpose of this study was to determine whether application of a comprehensive, science-based approach to breeding herd biosecurity, known as next-generation biosecurity (NGB), could reduce PRRS incidence risk across a large commercial production company. ANIMALS: Pigs (381,404 sows across 76 breeding herds). METHODS: From 2009 to 2020, the annual incidence risk of PRRS in sow farms managed by the same company averaged 33%, ranging from 20% to 50%. To measure the effect of NGB on PRRS incidence risk, a retrospective cohort study was conducted from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2023, across breeding herds managed by the same company. During the analysis, 2 groups of herds emerged: those that implemented protocols for all phases of NGB (NGB COMPLETE), and those that implemented all described protocols of biosecurity except for air filtration (NGB INCOMPLETE). RESULTS: During the 2-year assessment period, 56 breeding herds were classified as NGB COMPLETE, while 20 herds were NGB INCOMPLETE. The PRRS incidence risk in NGB COMPLETE herds was 8.9% as compared to 40.0% in NGB INCOMPLETE herds. From disease year 1 (July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022) and disease year 2 (July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023), system-wide PRRS incidence risk was 8.6% and 9.2%, respectively. The association between NGB status and PRRS incidence risk for the 2-year period was statistically significant at a P value of .006. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results of the present report provided evidence that improvements in biosecurity result in lower PRRS incidence risk under large-scale commercial swine production conditions.

Time Farms Stay Naïve for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Hesitation on eliminating Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSV) from breeding herds exists since it is difficult to predict how long the herd will remain virus-free. We aimed to estimate the time that breeding herds remained virus-free (naïve) after PRRSV elimination was achieved. METHODS: Production systems voluntarily shared their breeding herds' health status weekly between July 2009 and October 2021. PRRSV incidence rate and the total number of days a breeding herd remained virus-free were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 221 (17%) herds reached the naïve status 273 times. The median time sites remained in this status was approximately two years. The overall PRRS incidence rate after sites achieved a naïve status was 23.43 PRRS outbreaks per 100 farm years. CONCLUSION: Estimates obtained here provide insights on how frequently and for how long sites remain naïve, which contribute to informing management practices for PRRS control.

Sow mortality in a pig production system in the midwestern USA: Reasons for removal and factors associated with increased mortality.

BACKGROUND: Sow mortality has become a growing concern in the pig production industry over the past decade. Therefore, we aimed to describe sow mortality and associated factors in a production system in the midwestern USA. METHODS: Mortality records from 2009 to 2018 for four farrow-to-wean farms were described. Environmental, farm- and individual-level factors associated with weekly mortality and individual risk of dying throughout a sow's lifetime were assessed. RESULTS: Deaths occurred at a median of 116 days from last service, or 26 days postpartum. The median parity upon death was two. Overall, the main reasons for death were locomotion (27%) and reproduction (24%). A higher weekly number of deaths was associated with spring (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.27, compared to winter). Sows had a higher mortality when they were exposed to at least one porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreak during their lifetime (IRR 1.55) and when housed in groups (pens) during gestation (IRR 1.32). Conversely, they had  a lower mortality when housed in filtered farms (IRR 0.76), accounting for an interaction term between parity at removal and PRRS outbreak exposure. LIMITATIONS: Issues with data completion and information accuracy were present, and prospective data collection throughout sows' lifetimes is still needed. CONCLUSION: Efforts to reduce infectious diseases within the herd and manage environmental stressors should help reduce mortality.

Disentangling transport movement patterns of trucks either transporting pigs or while empty within a swine production system before and during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Transport of pigs between sites occurs frequently as part of genetic improvement and age segregation. However, a lack of transport biosecurity could have catastrophic implications if not managed properly as disease spread would be imminent. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive study of vehicle movement trends within swine systems in the Midwest. In this study, we aimed to describe and characterize vehicle movement patterns within one large Midwest swine system representative of modern pig production to understand movement trends and proxies for biosecurity compliance and identify potential risky behaviors that may result in a higher risk for infectious disease spread. Geolocation tracking devices recorded vehicle movements of a subset of trucks and trailers from a production system every 5 min and every time tracks entered a landmark between January 2019 and December 2020, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We described 6,213 transport records from 12 vehicles controlled by the company. In total, 114 predefined landmarks were included during the study period, representing 5 categories of farms and truck wash facilities. The results showed that trucks completed the majority (76.4%, 2,111/2,762) of the recorded movements. The seasonal distribution of incoming movements was similar across years (P > 0.05), while the 2019 winter and summer seasons showed higher incoming movements to sow farms than any other season, year, or production type (P < 0.05). More than half of the in-movements recorded occurred within the triad of sow farms, wean-to-market stage, and truck wash facilities. Overall, time spent at each landmark was 9.08% higher in 2020 than in 2019, without seasonal highlights, but with a notably higher time spent at truck wash facilities than any other type of landmark. Network analyses showed high connectivity among farms with identifiable clusters in the network. Furthermore, we observed a decrease in connectivity in 2020 compared with 2019, as indicated by the majority of network parameter values. Further network analysis will be needed to understand its impact on disease spread and control. However, the description and quantification of movement trends reported in this study provide findings that might be the basis for targeting infectious disease surveillance and control.

Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography.

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

Assessing the role of sow parity on PRRSv detection by RT-qPCR through weekly processing fluids monitoring in breeding herds.

The use of processing fluids to monitor the breeding herd's porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) status has gained industry acceptance. However, little is known about PRRS virus RT-qPCR detection dynamics in processing fluids and factors that may contribute to maintain PRRS virus in the herd after an outbreak. This study aimed to describe weekly RT-qPCR processing fluid results in breeding herds after an outbreak and to evaluate the proportion of RT-qPCR positive results among parity groups. Processing tissues of 15 first parity (P1), 15 second parity (P2), and 15 third parity or higher (P3+) litters (parity groups) were collected weekly for between 19 and 46 weeks in nine breeding herds. Processing fluids were aggregated, and RT-qPCR tested by parity group weekly. Additionally, a subset of 743 processing fluid samples of litters that formed 50 parity groups, as previously described, were RT-qPCR tested individually at the litter level. The agreement between RT-qPCR results of processing fluid samples of parity groups (15 litters) and results based on individual litter testing was assessed using overall percent of agreement, Kappa statistic, and McNemar test. The association between RT-qPCR results and the parity group was evaluated using a generalized estimating equations model, after accounting for the effects of sampling week, breeding herd PRRS control strategy (i.e., open to replacements v/s closed) and herd. An autoregressive correlation structure was used to account for the repeated samplings within a herd in time. The overall agreement was 98 %, and Kappa statistic 0.955 (McNemar p = 1.0). Sensitivity of parity group processing fluid samples was estimated at 100 % (95 % CI 89-100 %), while specificity was estimated at 94 % (95 % CI 71-100 %). Although P1 aggregated litters had on average a higher proportion of RT-qPCR positive results from outbreak week 25 onwards, the proportion was not significantly different to the one observed for P2 and P3+ aggregated litters (p > 0.13). Additionally, herds that interrupted gilt entry had lower odds of PRRS RT-qPCR positivity than herds that continued entering gilts (OR = 0.35, 95 % CI 0.16-0.78). PRRS virus persistence in processing fluids was not affected by the sow parity effect in most of the breeding herds studied. No evidence of disagreement between RT-qPCR results of an aggregated sample of 15 litters and those of individual litters was observed. This level of litter aggregation testing strategy may be of particular use at the last stages of an elimination program under low PRRS virus prevalence.

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRSV2) Viral Diversity within a Farrow-to-Wean Farm Cohort Study.

Describing PRRSV whole-genome viral diversity data over time within the host and within-farm is crucial for a better understanding of viral evolution and its implications. A cohort study was conducted at one naïve farrow-to-wean farm reporting a PRRSV outbreak. All piglets 3-5 days of age (DOA) born to mass-exposed sows through live virus inoculation with the recently introduced wild-type virus two weeks prior were sampled and followed up at 17-19 DOA. Samples from 127 piglets were individually tested for PRRSV by RT-PCR and 100 sequences were generated using Oxford Nanopore Technologies chemistry. Female piglets had significantly higher median Ct values than males (15.5 vs. 13.7, Kruskal-Wallis p < 0.001) at 3-5 DOA. A 52.8% mortality between sampling points was found, and the odds of dying by 17-19 DOA decreased with every one unit increase in Ct values at 3-5 DOA (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94, p = 0.01). Although the within-pig percent nucleotide identity was overall high (99.7%) between 3-5 DOA and 17-19 DOA samples, ORFs 4 and 5a showed much lower identities (97.26% and 98.53%, respectively). When looking solely at ORF5, 62% of the sequences were identical to the 3-5 DOA consensus. Ten and eight regions showed increased nucleotide and amino acid genetic diversity, respectively, all found throughout ORFs 2a/2b, 4, 5a/5, 6, and 7.

Analyses of Early ZIKV Genomes Are Consistent with Viral Spread from Northeast Brazil to the Americas.

The Americas, particularly Brazil, were greatly impacted by the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015 and 2016. Efforts were made to implement genomic surveillance of ZIKV as part of the public health responses. The accuracy of spatiotemporal reconstructions of the epidemic spread relies on the unbiased sampling of the transmission process. In the early stages of the outbreak, we recruited patients exhibiting clinical symptoms of arbovirus-like infection from Salvador and Campo Formoso, Bahia, in Northeast Brazil. Between May 2015 and June 2016, we identified 21 cases of acute ZIKV infection and subsequently recovered 14 near full-length sequences using the amplicon tiling multiplex approach with nanopore sequencing. We performed a time-calibrated discrete phylogeographic analysis to trace the spread and migration history of the ZIKV. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a consistent relationship between ZIKV migration from Northeast to Southeast Brazil and its subsequent dissemination beyond Brazil. Additionally, our analysis provides insights into the migration of ZIKV from Brazil to Haiti and the role Brazil played in the spread of ZIKV to other countries, such as Singapore, the USA, and the Dominican Republic. The data generated by this study enhances our understanding of ZIKV dynamics and supports the existing knowledge, which can aid in future surveillance efforts against the virus.

Growing pig incidence rate, control and prevention of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in a large pig production system in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, PEDV was introduced in the United States (U.S.) and rapidly spread across the country. Here we describe the occurrence of PEDV in the growing pig herd of one large U.S. production system through an active surveillance set in place between October 2019 and November 2020 designed to assess disease status upon placement into the growing pig site, before shipping to the slaughter plant and when diarrhea events were present at the site. We also assessed the impact of preventive procedures implemented in PEDV incidence that comprised site-specific equipment segregation and biosecurity changes regarding personnel movement between sites. RESULTS: 36.50% (100/274) of the sites had at least one PEDV introduction event before preventive procedures were implemented, yielding an incidence rate of 2.41 per 100 farm-weeks. Most (63/100) of them occurred in sites where animals were placed negative and PEDV was detected in clinical samples in a median of 8 weeks post placement. After preventive procedures were implemented, the overall PEDV incidence rate dropped to 0.37 per 100 farm-weeks (84.65% reduction, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of systematic surveillance to identify the burden of diseases, areas of improvement in prevention and control, and to allow the measurement of the impact of policy/protocol changes.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome prevalence and processing fluids use for diagnosis in United States breeding herds.

Introduction: Processing fluids have been recently adopted by the U.S. swine industry as a breeding herd PRRS monitoring tool due to their increased representativeness of animals within the herd. Here, we use the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP) database, representative of ~50% of the U.S. swine breeding herd, to describe processing fluids submissions for PRRS diagnosis and their relation to PRRS prevalence and time to stability over time between 2009 and 2020. Methods: An ecological time series Poisson regression modeling the number of status 1 farms and weekly percentage of processing fluids submissions for PRRS diagnosis was done. Time to stability was calculated for sites that detected a PRRS outbreak within the study period and modeled through a proportional hazards mixed effect survival model using production system as a random-effect factor and epiweek as a panel variable. Results: Processing fluids diagnosis submissions increased starting in 2017. The difference between each year's highest and lowest weekly prevalence averaged 10.9% between 2009 and 2017, whereas it averaged 5.0% in 2018-2020 period. Each year's lowest weekly prevalence ranged from 11.3 to 19.5% in 2009-2017 and from 22.4 to 29.2% in 2018-2020. We also detected an increasing proportion of breeding sites that did not reach stability within 1 year of reporting an outbreak (chi-square for trend p < 0.0001). The total time to stability was not associated with the region of the country in which the site was located, the site's air filtration status, its PRRS status before the outbreak, or the different statuses a site achieved to be classified as stable, when accounting for the production system in the multivariate model. However, a higher proportion of system-wide processing fluids use was associated with increased time to stability. Discussion: Altogether, the temporal concurrence of processing fluids used for PRRS virus monitoring suggests that the adoption of this sampling strategy may help explain the changes observed in PRRS status 1 prevalence since 2018, although further studies are still needed.

Measuring How Recombination Re-shapes the Evolutionary History of PRRSV-2: A Genome-Based Phylodynamic Analysis of the Emergence of a Novel PRRSV-2 Variant.

While the widespread and endemic circulation of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus type 2 (PRRSV-2) causes persistent economic losses to the U.S. swine industry, unusual increases of severe cases associated with the emergence of new genetic variants are a major source of concern for pork producers. Between 2020 and 2021, such an event occurred across pig production sites in the Midwestern U.S. The emerging viral clade is referred to as the novel sub-lineage 1C (L1C) 1-4-4 variant. This genetic classification is based on the open reading frame 5 (ORF5) gene. However, although whole genome sequence (WGS) suggested that this variant represented the emergence of a new strain, the true evolutionary history of this variant remains unclear. To better elucidate the variant's evolutionary history, we conducted a recombination detection analysis, time-scaled phylogenetic estimation, and discrete trait analysis on a set of L1C-1-4-4 WGSs (n = 19) alongside other publicly published WGSs (n = 232) collected over a 26-year period (1995-2021). Results from various methodologies consistently suggest that the novel L1C variant was a descendant of a recombinant ancestor characterized by recombination at the ORF1a gene between two segments that would be otherwise classified as L1C and L1A in the ORF5 gene. Based on analysis of different WGS fragments, the L1C-1-4-4 variant descended from an ancestor that existed around late 2018 to early 2019, with relatively high substitution rates in the proximal ORF1a as well as ORF5 regions. Two viruses from 2018 were found to be the closest relatives to the 2020-21 outbreak strain but had different recombination profiles, suggesting that these viruses were not direct ancestors. We also assessed the overall frequency of putative recombination amongst ORF5 and other parts of the genome and found that recombination events which leave detectable numbers of descendants are not common. However, the rapid spread and high virulence of the L1C-1-4-4 recombinant variant demonstrates that inter-sub-lineage recombination occasionally found amongst the U.S. PRRSV-2 might be an evolutionary mechanisms that contributed to this emergence. More generally, recombination amongst PRRSV-2 accelerates genetic change and increases the chance of the emergence of high fitness variants.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus 2 (PRRSV-2) genetic diversity and occurrence of wild type and vaccine-like strains in the United States swine industry.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus genotype 2 (PRRSV-2) genetic diversity in the U.S. was assessed using a database comprising 10 years' worth of sequence data obtained from swine production systems routine monitoring and outbreak investigations. A total of 26,831 ORF5 PRRSV-2 sequences from 34 production systems were included in this analysis. Within group mean genetic distance (i.e. mean proportion of nucleotide differences within ORF5) per year according to herd type was calculated for all PRRSV-2 sequences. The percent nucleotide difference between each sequence and the ORF5 sequences from four commercially available PRRSV-2 vaccines (Ingelvac PRRS MLV, Ingelvac PRRS ATP, Fostera PRRS, and Prevacent PRRS) within the same lineage over time was used to classify sequences in wild-type or vaccine-like. The mean ORF5 genetic distance fluctuated from 0.09 to 0.13, being generally smaller in years in which there was a relative higher frequency of dominant lineage. Vaccine-like sequences comprised about one fourth of sequences obtained through routine monitoring of PRRS. We found that lineage 5 sequences were mostly Ingelvac PRRS MLV-like. Lineage 8 sequences up to 2011 were 62.9% Ingelvac PRRS ATP-like while the remaining were wild-type viruses. From 2012 onwards, 51.9% of lineage 8 sequences were Ingelvac PRRS ATP-like, 45.0% were Fostera PRRS-like, and only 3.2% were wild-type. For lineage 1 sequences, 0.1% and 1.7% of the sequences were Prevacent PRRS-like in 2009-2018 and 2019, respectively. These results suggest that repeated introductions of vaccine-like viruses through use of modified live vaccines might decrease within-lineage viral diversity as vaccine-like strains become more prevalent. Overall, this compilation of private data from routine monitoring provides valuable information on PRRSV viral diversity.