Predictors of health workers' knowledge about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations in government and faith-based hospitals in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Health workers' knowledge deficiencies about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations have been reported. However, predictors of the treatment knowledge have not been examined. In this paper, predictors of artesunate-based treatment knowledge among inpatient health workers in two hospital sectors in Kenya are reported. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 367 and 330 inpatient health workers randomly selected and interviewed at 47 government hospitals in 2016 and 43 faith-based hospitals in 2017 respectively, was undertaken. Multilevel ordinal and binary logistic regressions examining the effects of 11 factors on five knowledge outcomes in government and faith-based hospital sectors were performed. RESULTS: Among respective government and faith-based health workers, about a third of health workers had high knowledge of artesunate treatment policies (30.8% vs 32.9%), a third knew all dosing intervals (33.5% vs 33.3%), about half knew preparation solutions (49.9% vs 55.8%), half to two-thirds knew artesunate dose for both weight categories (50.8% vs 66.7%) and over three-quarters knew the preferred route of administration (78.7% vs 82.4%). Eight predictors were significantly associated with at least one of the examined knowledge outcomes. In the government sector, display of artesunate administration posters, paediatric ward allocation and repeated surveys were significantly associated with more than one of the knowledge outcomes. In the faith-based hospitals, availability of artesunate at hospitals and health worker pre-service training were associated with multiple outcomes. Exposure to in-service malaria case-management training and access to malaria guidelines were only associated with higher knowledge about artesunate treatment policy. CONCLUSION: Programmatic interventions ensuring display of artesunate administration posters in the wards, targeting of health workers managing adult patients in the medical wards, and repeated knowledge assessments are likely to be beneficial for improving the knowledge of government health workers about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations. The availability of artesunate and focus on improvements of nurses' knowledge should be prioritized at the faith-based hospitals.

Using health-facility data to assess subnational coverage of maternal and child health indicators, Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a systematic approach to obtain the best possible national and subnational statistics for maternal and child health coverage indicators from routine health-facility data. METHODS: Our approach aimed to obtain improved numerators and denominators for calculating coverage at the subnational level from health-facility data. This involved assessing data quality and determining adjustment factors for incomplete reporting by facilities, then estimating local target populations based on interventions with near-universal coverage (first antenatal visit and first dose of pentavalent vaccine). We applied the method to Kenya at the county level, where routine electronic reporting by facilities is in place via the district health information software system. FINDINGS: Reporting completeness for facility data were well above 80% in all 47 counties and the consistency of data over time was good. Coverage of the first dose of pentavalent vaccine, adjusted for facility reporting completeness, was used to obtain estimates of the county target populations for maternal and child health indicators. The country and national statistics for the four-year period 2012/13 to 2015/16 showed good consistency with results of the 2014 Kenya demographic and health survey. Our results indicated a stagnation of immunization coverage in almost all counties, a rapid increase of facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections and limited progress in antenatal care coverage. CONCLUSION: While surveys will continue to be necessary to provide population-based data, web-based information systems for health facility reporting provide an opportunity for more frequent, local monitoring of progress, in maternal and child health.

A review of data quality of an electronic tuberculosis surveillance system for case-based reporting in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Kenya recently transitioned from a paper to an electronic system for recording and reporting of tuberculosis (TB) data. METHODS: During September-October 2013, the data quality of the new system was evaluated through an audit of data in paper source documents and in the national electronic system, and an analysis of all 99 281 cases reported in 2012. RESULTS: While the new electronic system overall is robust, this assessment demonstrated limitations in the concordance and completeness of data reaching the national level. CONCLUSIONS: Additional oversight and training in data entry are needed to strengthen TB surveillance data quality in Kenya.

Measuring availability of and facility readiness to deliver comprehensive abortion care: experiences and lessons learnt from integrating abortion into WHO's health facility assessments.

Routine assessment of health facility capacity to provide abortion and post-abortion care can inform policy and programmes to expand access and improve quality. Since 2018, abortion and/or post-abortion care have been integrated into two WHO health facility assessment tools: the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment and the Harmonised Health Facility Assessment. We discuss lessons learnt through experiences integrating abortion into these standardised tools. Our experiences highlight the feasibility of including abortion in health facility assessments across a range of legal contexts. Factors facilitating the integration of abortion include cross-country collaboration and experience sharing, timely inputs into tool adaptations, clear leadership, close relationships among key stakeholders as in assessment coordination groups, use of locally appropriate terminology to refer to abortion and reference to national policies and guidelines. To facilitate high-quality data collection, we identify considerations around question sequencing in tool design, appropriate terminology and the need to balance the normalisation of abortion with adequate sensitisation and education of data collectors. To facilitate appropriate and consistent analysis, future work must ensure adequate disaggregation of recommended and non-recommended abortion methods, alignment with national guidelines and development of a standardised approach for measuring abortion service readiness. Measurement of abortion service availability and readiness should be a routine practice and a standardised component of health facility assessment tools. Evidence generated by health facility assessments that include abortion monitoring can guide efforts to expand access to timely and effective care and help normalise abortion as a core component of sexual and reproductive healthcare.

Mapping health service coverage inequalities in Africa: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Addressing inequities in health service coverage is a global priority, especially with the resurgence of interest in universal health coverage. However, in Africa, which has the lowest health service coverage index, there is limited information on the progress of countries in addressing inequalities related to health services. Thus, we seek to map the evidence on inequalities in health service coverage in Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a scoping review following the Joanna Briggs Institute Manual for Evidence Synthesis. We preregistered this protocol with the Open Science Framework on 26 July 2022 (https://osf.io/zd5bt). We will consider any empirical research that assesses inequalities in relation to services for reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (eg, family planning), infectious diseases (eg, tuberculosis treatment) and non-communicable diseases (eg, cervical cancer screening) in Africa. We will search MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library from their inception onwards. We will also hand-search Google and Global Index Medicus, and screen reference lists of relevant studies. We will evaluate studies for eligibility and extract data from included studies using pre-piloted and standardised forms. We will further extract a core set of health service coverage indicators, which are disaggregated by place of residence, race/ethnicity/culture, occupation, gender, religion, education, socioeconomic status and social capital plus equity stratifiers. We will summarise data using a narrative approach involving thematic syntheses and descriptive statistics. We will report our findings according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as primary data will not be collected. This work will contribute to identifying knowledge gaps in the evidence of inequalities in health service coverage in Africa, and propose strategies that could help overcome current challenges. We will disseminate our findings to knowledge users through a publication in a peer-reviewed journal and organisation of workshops.

Financing health system elements in Africa: A scoping review.

Countries that are reforming their health systems to progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) need to consider total resource requirements over the long term to plan for the implementation and sustainable financing of UHC. However, there is a lack of detailed conceptualization as to how the current health financing mechanisms interplay across health system elements. Thus, we aimed to generate evidence on how to utilize resources from different sources of funds in Africa. We conducted a scoping review of empirical research following the six-stage methodological framework for Scoping Review by Arksey & O'Malley and Levac, Colquhoun & O'Brien. We searched for published and grey literature in Medline, Cochrane Library, PubMed, WHO database, World bank and Google Scholar search engines databases and summarized data using a narrative approach, involving thematic syntheses and descriptive statistics. We included 156 studies out of 1,168 studies among which 13% were conceptual studies while 87% were empirical studies. These selected studies focused on the financing of the 13 health system elements. About 45% focused on service delivery, 13% on human resources, 5% on medical products, and 3% on infrastructure and governance. Studies reporting multiple health system elements were 8%, while health financing assessment frameworks was 23%. The publication years ranged from 1975 to 2021. While public sources were the most dominant form of financing, global documentation of health expenditure does not track funding on all the health system dimensions that informed the conceptual framework of this scoping review. There is a need to advocate for expenditure tracking for health systems, including intangibles. Further analysis would inform the development of a framework for assessing financing sources for health system elements based on efficiency, feasibility, sustainability, equity, and displacement.

Making districts functional for universal health coverage attainment: lessons from Ghana.

Ensuring the sub national level in the health system can function effectively is central to attainment of health results in countries. However, the current health agenda has not prioritized how districts can deploy their existing resources effectively, to maximize the efficiency equity and effectiveness in their use. Ghana initiated a self-assessment process to understand the functionality of districts to deliver on health results. The assessment was conducted by health managers in 33 districts during August-October 2022 using tools pre-developed by the World Health Organization. Functionality was explored around service provision, oversight, and management capacities, each with defined dimensions and attributes. The objective of the study was to highlight specific functionality improvements needed by districts in terms of investments and access to service delivery in achieving Universal Health Care. The results showed a lack of correlation between functionality and performance as is currently defined in Ghana; a higher functionality of oversight capacity compared to service provision or management capacities; and specifically low functionality for dimensions relating to capacity to make available quality services, responsiveness to beneficiaries and the systems and three structures for health management. The findings highlight the need to shift from quantitative outcome indicator-based performance approaches to measures of total health and wellbeing of beneficiaries. Specific functionality improvements are needed to improve the engagement and answerability to the beneficiaries, investments in access to services, and in building management architecture.

Estimating the economic impact of COVID-19 disruption on access to sexual and reproductive health and rights in Eastern and Southern Africa.

Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulted in the disruption of Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) services in the Eastern and Southern Africa region. To date, studies estimating the impact of COVID-19 disruptions have mainly focused on SRHR services without estimating the economic implication. Method: We used national service coverage data on the effectiveness of interventions from the lives saved tool (LiST), a mathematical modeling tool that estimates the effects of service coverage change in mortality. We computed years lost due to COVID-19 disruption on SRHR using life expectancy at birth, number of years of life lost due to child mortality, and life expectancy at average maternal death. We calculated the economic value of the lives saved, using the values of statistical life year for each of the countries, comparing 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 2020 (COVID-19 era). Findings: The total life-years lost were 1,335,663, with 1,056,174 life-years lost attributed to child mortality and 279,249 linked to maternal mortalities, with high case-fatality rates in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, and Tanzania. The findings show COVID-19 disruptions on SRHR services between 2019 and 2020 resulted in US$ 3.6 billion losses, with the highest losses in Angola (USD 777 million), South Africa (USD 539 million), and Democratic Republic of Congo (USD 361 million). Conclusion: The monetized value of disability adjusted life years can be used as evidence for advocacy, increased investment, and appropriate mitigation strategies. Countries should strengthen their health systems functionality, incorporating and transforming lessons learned from shock events.

Assessing capacities and resilience of health services during the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons learned from use of rapid key informant surveys.

This article is part of the Research Topic: 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict.' Problem: Many countries lacked rapid and nimble data systems to track health service capacities to respond to COVID-19. They struggled to assess and monitor rapidly evolving service disruptions, health workforce capacities, health products availability, community needs and perspectives, and mitigation responses to maintain essential health services. Method: Building on established methodologies, the World Health Organization developed a suite of methods and tools to support countries to rapidly fill data gaps and guide decision-making during COVID-19. The tools included: (1) a national "pulse" survey on service disruptions and bottlenecks; (2) a phone-based facility survey on frontline service capacities; and (3) a phone-based community survey on demand-side challenges and health needs. Use: Three national pulse surveys revealed persisting service disruptions throughout 2020-2021 (97 countries responded to all three rounds). Results guided mitigation strategies and operational plans at country level, and informed investments and delivery of essential supplies at global level. Facility and community surveys in 22 countries found similar disruptions and limited frontline service capacities at a more granular level. Findings informed key actions to improve service delivery and responsiveness from local to national levels. Lessons learned: The rapid key informant surveys provided a low-resource way to collect action-oriented health services data to inform response and recovery from local to global levels. The approach fostered country ownership, stronger data capacities, and integration into operational planning. The surveys are being evaluated to inform integration into country data systems to bolster routine health services monitoring and serve as health services alert functions for the future.

Factors associated with hospital length of stay in patients admitted with suspected malaria in Kenya: secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate factors associated with hospital length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted with suspected malaria using a competing risk approach. SETTING: County government referrals and major faith-based hospitals in Kenya in 2018. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey data. PARTICIPANTS: Data were extracted from 2396 medical records of patients admitted with suspected malaria at 90 hospitals. OUTCOME MEASURES: LOS, defined as time to discharge, was the primary event of interest, and time to death was the competing event against patient factors assessed during admission and hospitalisation. RESULTS: Among the patients analysed, 2283 were discharged, 49 died and 64 were censored. The median LOS was 4 days (IQR: 3-6 days). The cumulative incidence of discharge significantly decreased (p<0.05) by 12.7% (subdistribution-HR (SDHR): 0.873; 95% CI 0.789 to 0.967) when the respiratory rate was assessed, by 14.1% (SDHR 0.859; 95% CI 0.754 to 0.978) when oxygen saturation was monitored, by 23.1% (SDHR 0.769; 95% CI 0.709 to 0.833) and 23.4% (SDHR 0.766; 95% CI 0.704 to 0.833) when haemoglobin/haematocrit and glucose/random blood sugar were performed, respectively, and by 30.4% (SDHR 0.696; 95% CI 0.626 to 0.774) when patients had at least one clinical feature of severe malaria. Conversely, patients with confirmed severe malaria and those treated with injectable artesunate had a significantly increased cumulative incidence of discharge by 21.4% (SDHR 1.214; 95% CI 1.082 to 1.362) and 33.9% (SDHR 1.339; 95% CI 1.184 to 1.515), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Factors of inpatient clinical processes that influence hospital LOS were identified. These can be targeted during quality improvement interventions to enhance health service delivery in Kenya. Early recognition and appropriate management of the signs of malaria severity could greatly affect beneficial outcomes. Strengthening clinical practices and nursing care according to national case management guidelines should be a priority for malaria control managers in Kenya.

Sub optimal HIV status ascertainment at antenatal clinics and the impact on HIV prevalence estimates: A cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: While many countries including Kenya transitioned from sentinel surveillance to the use of routine antenatal care (ANC) data to estimate the burden of HIV, countries in Sub Saharan Africa reported several challenges of this transition, including low uptake of HIV testing and sub national / site-level differences in HIV prevalence estimates. In Kenya voluntary HIV testing is offered to all 1st ANC clients. However, some women may decline testing. We aim to predict the HIV positivity (as a proxy of prevalence) at ANC assuming 100% uptake of HIV testing and compare this to the observed positivity. METHODS: Using a cross sectional study design, we examine routine data on HIV testing among all women attending ANC in Kwale County, Kenya, for the period January 2015 to December 2019.We used a generalized estimating equation with binomial distribution to model the observed HIV prevalence as explained by HIV status ascertainment. We then used marginal standardization to predict the HIV prevalence at 100% HIV status ascertainment and make recommendations to improve the utility of ANC routine data for HIV surveillance. RESULTS: HIV testing at ANC was at 91.3%, slightly above the global target of 90%. If there was 100% HIV status ascertainment at ANC, the HIV prevalence would be 2.7% (95% CI 2.3-3.2). This was 0.3% lower than the observed prevalence. Across the yearly predictions, there was no difference between the observed and predicted values except for 2018 where the HIV prevalence was underestimated with an absolute bias of -0.2 percent. This implies missed opportunities for identifying new HIV infections in the year 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Imperfect HIV status ascertainment at ANC overestimates HIV prevalence among women attending ANC in Kwale County. However, the use of ANC routine data may underestimate the true population prevalence. There is need to address both community level and health facility level barriers to the uptake of ANC services.

Cross-sectional study to predict subnational levels of health workers' knowledge about severe malaria treatment in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: This study applied a Bayesian hierarchical ecological spatial model beyond predictor analysis to test for the best fitting spatial effects model to predict subnational levels of health workers' knowledge of severe malaria treatment policy, artesunate dosing, and preparation. SETTING: County referral government and major faith-based hospitals across 47 counties in Kenya in 2019. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: A secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data from 345 health workers across 89 hospitals with inpatient departments who were randomly selected and interviewed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Three ordinal outcome variables for severe malaria treatment policy, artesunate dose and preparation were considered, while 12 individual and contextual predictors were included in the spatial models. RESULTS: A third of the health workers had high knowledge levels on artesunate treatment policy; almost three-quarters had high knowledge levels on artesunate dosing and preparation. The likelihood of having high knowledge on severe malaria treatment policy was lower among nurses relative to clinicians (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.48, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.87), health workers older than 30 years were 61% less likely to have high knowledge about dosing compared with younger health workers (aOR=0.39, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.67), while health workers exposed to artesunate posters had 2.4-fold higher odds of higher knowledge about dosing compared with non-exposed health workers (aOR=2.38, 95% CI 1.22 to 4.74). The best model fitted with spatially structured random effects and spatial variations of the knowledge level across the 47 counties exhibited neighbourhood influence. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of severe malaria treatment policies is not adequately and optimally available among health workers across Kenya. The factors associated with the health workers' level of knowledge were cadre, age and exposure to artesunate posters. The spatial maps provided subnational estimates of knowledge levels for focused interventions.

Cross country lessons sharing on practices, challenges and innovation in primary health care revitalization and universal health coverage implementation among 18 countries in the WHO African Region.

The fifth health sector directors´ policy and planning meeting for the World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for Africa convened to focus on building health system resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure continuity of essential health services, primary health care (PHC) revitalization, and health system strengthening towards achieving universal health coverage (UHC). In this paper, we present short summaries and experiences shared by 18 countries, for which their practices and outcomes have been documented in this manuscript. These actions are aligned with six key themes: (i) defining and making more essential health services available, (ii) increasing service coverage targeting hard to reach populations, (iii) financial risk protection, (iv) improving user satisfaction with services, (v) improving health security, and (vi) improving coverage with health-related sector services. It is through these shared country experiences that lessons are learned that can influence the region´s work and advancement to achieve UHC through a PHC approach.

Use of Digital Health Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa for Health Systems Strengthening Over the Last 10 Years: A Scoping Review Protocol.

Background: Digital Health Interventions (DHIs) refers to the utilization of digital and mobile technology to support the health system in service delivery. Over the recent years, advanced computing, genomics, and artificial intelligence are considered part of digital health. In the context of the World Health Organization (WHO) global strategy 2020-2025, digital health is defined as "the field of knowledge and practice associated with the development and use of digital technologies to improve health." The scoping review protocol details the procedure for developing a comprehensive list of DHIs in Sub-Saharan Africa and documenting their roles in strengthening health systems. Method and Analysis: A scoping review will be done according to the Joanne Briggs institute reviewers manual and following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and explanation. The protocol has been registered at the Open Science Framework (OSF) database at https://osf.io/5kzq7. The review will include DHIs conceptualized/developed/designed, adapted, piloted, deployed, scaled up, and addressing health challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. We will retrieve data from the global DHI repository-the WHO Digital Health Atlas (DHA)- and supplement it with information from the WHO eHealth Observatory, eHealth Survey (2015), and eHealth country profiles report. Additional searches will be conducted in four (4) electronic databases: PubMed, HINARI-Reasearch4Life, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. The review will also include gray literature and reference lists of selected studies. Data will be organized in conceptual categories looking at digital health interventions' distinct function toward achieving health sector objectives. Discussion: Sub-Saharan Africa is an emerging powerhouse in DHI innovations with rapid expansion and evolvement. The enthusiasm for digital health has experienced challenges including an escalation of short-lived digital health interventions, duplication, and minimal documentation of evidence on their impact on the health system. Efficient use of resources is important when striving toward the use digital health interventions in health systems strengthening. This can be achieved through documenting successes and lessons learnt over time. Conclusion: The review will provide the evidence to guide further investments in DHIs, avoid duplication, circumvent barriers, focus on gaps, and scale-up successful interventions.

eHealth or e-Chaos: The use of Digital Health Interventions for Health Systems Strengthening in sub-Saharan Africa over the last 10 years: A scoping review.

Background: Digital health solutions are a potent and complementary intervention in health system strengthening to accelerate universal access to health services. Implementing scalable, sustainable, and integrated digital solutions in a coordinated manner is necessary to experience the benefits of digital interventions in health systems. We sought to establish the breadth and scope of available digital health interventions (DHIs) and their functions in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We conducted a scoping review according to the Joanne Briggs Institute's reviewers manual and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses - Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and explanation. We retrieved data from the WHO Digital Health Atlas (DHA), the WHO e-Health country profiles report of 2015, and electronic databases. The protocol has been deposited in an open-source platform - the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/5kzq7. Results: The researchers retrieved 983 digital tools used to strengthen health systems in sub-Saharan Africa over the past 10 years. We included 738 DHIs in the analysis while 245 were excluded for not meeting the inclusion criteria. We observed a disproportionate distribution of DHIs towards service delivery (81.7%, n = 603), health care providers (91.8%, n = 678), and access and use of information (84.1%, n = 621). Fifty-three percent (53.4%, n = 394) of the solutions are established and 47.5% (n = 582) were aligned to 20% (n = 5) of the system categories. Conclusions: Sub-Saharan Africa is endowed with digital health solutions in both numbers and distinct functions. It is lacking in coordination, integration, scalability, sustainability, and equitable distribution of investments in digital health. Digital health policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa need to urgently institute coordination mechanisms to terminate unending duplication and disjointed vertical implementations and manage solutions for scale. Central to this would be to build digital health leadership in countries within SSA, adopt standards and interoperability frameworks; advocate for more investments into lagging components, and promote multi-purpose solutions to halt the seeming "e-chaos" and progress to sustainable e-health solutions.

Investments for effective functionality of health systems towards Universal Health Coverage in Africa: A scoping review.

The health challenges in Africa underscore the importance of effectively investing in health systems. Unfortunately, there is no information on systems investments adequate for an effective functional health system. We aimed to address this by conducting a scoping review of existing evidence following the Joanna Briggs Institute Manual for Evidence Synthesis and preregistered with the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/bvg4z). We included any empirical research describing interventions that contributed to the functionality of health systems in Africa or any low-income or lower-middle-income regions. We searched Web of Science, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and ERIC from their inception, and hand-searched other relevant sources. We summarized data using a narrative approach involving thematic syntheses and descriptive statistics. We identified 554 unique reports describing 575 interventions, of which 495 reported evidence of effectiveness. Most interventions were undertaken in Africa (80.9%), covered multiple elements of health systems (median: 3), and focused on service delivery (77.4%) and health workforce (65.6%). Effective interventions contributed to improving single (35.6%) or multiple (64.4%) capacities of health systems: access to essential services (75.6%), quality of care (70.5%), demand for essential services (38.6%), or health systems resilience (13.5%). For example, telemedicine models which covered software (technologies) and hardware (health workers) elements were used as a strategy to address issues of access to essential services. We inventoried these effective interventions for improving health systems functionality in Africa. Further analyses could deepen understanding of how such interventions differ in their incorporation of evidence for potential scale across African countries.

On the resilience of health systems: A methodological exploration across countries in the WHO African Region.

The need for resilient health systems is recognized as important for the attainment of health outcomes, given the current shocks to health services. Resilience has been defined as the capacity to "prepare and effectively respond to crises; maintain core functions; and, informed by lessons learnt, reorganize if conditions require it". There is however a recognized dichotomy between its conceptualization in literature, and its application in practice. We propose two mutually reinforcing categories of resilience, representing resilience targeted at potentially known shocks, and the inherent health system resilience, needed to respond to unpredictable shock events. We determined capacities for each of these categories, and explored this methodological proposition by computing country-specific scores against each capacity, for the 47 Member States of the WHO African Region. We assessed face validity of the computed index, to ensure derived values were representative of the different elements of resilience, and were predictive of health outcomes, and computed bias-corrected non-parametric confidence intervals of the emergency preparedness and response (EPR) and inherent system resilience (ISR) sub-indices, as well as the overall resilience index, using 1000 bootstrap replicates. We also explored the internal consistency and scale reliability of the index, by calculating Cronbach alphas for the various proposed capacities and their corresponding attributes. We computed overall resilience to be 48.4 out of a possible 100 in the 47 assessed countries, with generally lower levels of ISR. For ISR, the capacities were weakest for transformation capacity, followed by mobilization of resources, awareness of own capacities, self-regulation and finally diversity of services respectively. This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of empirical evidence on health systems and service resilience, which is of great importance to the functionality and performance of health systems, particularly in the context of COVID-19. It provides a methodological reflection for monitoring health system resilience, revealing areas of improvement in the provision of essential health services during shock events, and builds a case for the need for mechanisms, at country level, that address both specific and non-specific shocks to the health system, ultimately for the attainment of improved health outcomes.

COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has affected the African region in many ways. We aimed to generate robust information on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in this region since the beginning of the pandemic and throughout 2022. METHODS: For each of the 47 countries of the WHO African region, we consolidated COVID-19 data from reported infections and deaths (from WHO statistics); published literature on socioecological, biophysical, and public health interventions; and immunity status and variants of concern, to build a dynamic and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 burden. The model is consolidated through a partially observed Markov decision process, with a Fourier series to produce observed patterns over time based on the SEIRD (denoting susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and dead) modelling framework. The model was set up to run weekly, by country, from the date the first infection was reported in each country until Dec 31, 2021. New variants were introduced into the model based on sequenced data reported by countries. The models were then extrapolated until the end of 2022 and included three scenarios based on possible new variants with varying transmissibility, severity, or immunogenicity. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, our model estimates the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the African region to be 505·6 million (95% CI 476·0-536·2), inferring that only 1·4% (one in 71) of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the region were reported. Deaths are estimated at 439 500 (95% CI 344 374-574 785), with 35·3% (one in three) of these reported as COVID-19-related deaths. Although the number of infections were similar between 2020 and 2021, 81% of the deaths were in 2021. 52·3% (95% CI 43·5-95·2) of the region's population is estimated to have some SARS-CoV-2 immunity, given vaccination coverage of 14·7% as of Dec 31, 2021. By the end of 2022, we estimate that infections will remain high, at around 166·2 million (95% CI 157·5-174·9) infections, but deaths will substantially reduce to 22 563 (14 970-38 831). INTERPRETATION: The African region is estimated to have had a similar number of COVID-19 infections to that of the rest of the world, but with fewer deaths. Our model suggests that the current approach to SARS-CoV-2 testing is missing most infections. These results are consistent with findings from representative seroprevalence studies. There is, therefore, a need for surveillance of hospitalisations, comorbidities, and the emergence of new variants of concern, and scale-up of representative seroprevalence studies, as core response strategies. FUNDING: None.

Transitioning to Digital Systems: The Role of World Health Organization's Digital Adaptation Kits in Operationalizing Recommendations and Interoperability Standards.

INTRODUCTION: The transition from paper to digital systems requires quality assurance of the underlying content and application of data standards for interoperability. The World Health Organization (WHO) developed digital adaptation kits (DAKs) as an operational and software-neutral mechanism to translate WHO guidelines into a standardized format that can be more easily incorporated into digital systems. METHODS: WHO convened health program area and digital leads, reviewed existing approaches for requirements gathering, mapped to established standards, and incorporated research findings to define DAK components. RESULTS: For each health domain area, the DAKs distill WHO guidelines to specify the health interventions, personas, user scenarios, business process workflows, core data elements mapped to terminology codes, decision-support logic, program indicators, and functional and nonfunctional requirements. DISCUSSION: DAKs aim to catalyze quality of care and facilitate data use and interoperability as part of WHO's vision of SMART (Standards-based, Machine-readable, Adaptive, Requirements-based, and Testable) guidelines. Efforts will be needed to strengthen a collaborative approach for the uptake of DAKs within the local digital ecosystem and national health policies.

Assessing access barriers to tuberculosis care with the tool to Estimate Patients' Costs: pilot results from two districts in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The poor face geographical, socio-cultural and health system barriers in accessing tuberculosis care. These may cause delays to timely diagnosis and treatment resulting in more advanced disease and continued transmission of TB. By addressing barriers and reasons for delay, costs incurred by TB patients can be effectively reduced. A Tool to Estimate Patients' Costs has been developed. It can assist TB control programs in assessing such barriers. This study presents the Tool and results of its pilot in Kenya. METHODS: The Tool was adapted to the local setting, translated into Kiswahili and pretested. Nine public health facilities in two districts in Eastern Province were purposively sampled. Responses gathered from TB patients above 15 years of age with at least one month of treatment completed and signed informed consent were double entered and analyzed. Follow-up interviews with key informants on district and national level were conducted to assess the impact of the pilot and to explore potential interventions. RESULTS: A total of 208 patients were interviewed in September 2008. TB patients in both districts have a substantial burden of direct (out of pocket; USD 55.8) and indirect (opportunity; USD 294.2) costs due to TB. Inability to work is a major cause of increased poverty. Results confirm a 'medical poverty trap' situation in the two districts: expenditures increased while incomes decreased. Subsequently, TB treatment services were decentralized to fifteen more facilities and other health programs were approached for nutritional support of TB patients and sputum sample transport. On the national level, a TB and poverty sub-committee was convened to develop a comprehensive pro-poor approach. CONCLUSIONS: The Tool to Estimate Patients' Costs proved to be a valuable instrument to assess the costs incurred by TB patients, socioeconomic situations, health-seeking behavior patterns, concurrent illnesses such as HIV, and social and gender-related impacts. The Tool helps to identify and tackle bottlenecks in access to TB care, especially for the poor. Reducing delays in diagnosis, decentralization of services, fully integrated TB/HIV care and expansion of health insurance coverage would alleviate patients' economic constraints due to TB.