South African Paediatric Surgical Outcomes Study: a 14-day prospective, observational cohort study of paediatric surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Children comprise a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa. The burden of paediatric surgical disease exceeds available resources in Africa, potentially increasing morbidity and mortality. There are few prospective paediatric perioperative outcomes studies, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We conducted a 14-day multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of paediatric patients (aged <16 yrs) undergoing surgery in 43 government-funded hospitals in South Africa. The primary outcome was the incidence of in-hospital postoperative complications. RESULTS: We recruited 2024 patients at 43 hospitals. The overall incidence of postoperative complications was 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.4-11.0]. The most common postoperative complications were infective (7.3%; 95% CI: 6.2-8.4%). In-hospital mortality rate was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-1.5), of which nine of the deaths (41%) were in ASA physical status 1 and 2 patients. The preoperative risk factors independently associated with postoperative complications were ASA physcial status, urgency of surgery, severity of surgery, and an infective indication for surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors, frequency, and type of complications after paediatric surgery differ between LMICs and high-income countries. The in-hospital mortality is 10 times greater than in high-income countries. These findings should be used to develop strategies to improve paediatric surgical outcomes in LMICs, and support the need for larger prospective, observational paediatric surgical outcomes research in LMICs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03367832.

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications.

BACKGROUND: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. METHODS: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. RESULTS: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. CONCLUSIONS: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03044899.

The development of a nurse-led preoperative anaesthesia screening tool by Delphi consensus.

BACKGROUND: Low- and middle-income countries have a critical shortage of specialist anaesthetists. Most patients arriving for surgery are of low perioperative risk. Without immediate access to preoperative specialist care, an appropriate interim strategy may be to ensure that only high-risk patients are seen preoperatively by a specialist. Matching human resources to the burden of disease with a nurse-administered pre-operative screening tool to identify high-risk patients who might benefit from specialist review prior to the day of surgery may be an effective strategy. OBJECTIVE: To develop a nurse-administered preoperative anaesthesia screening tool to identify patients who would most likely benefit from a specialist review before the day of surgery, and those patients who could safely be seen by the anaesthetist on the day of surgery. This would ensure adequate time for optimisation of high-risk patients preoperatively and limit avoidable day-of-surgery cancellations. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to identify preoperative screening questions for use in a three-round Delphi consensus process. A panel of 16 experienced full-time clinical anaesthetists representing all university-affiliated anaesthesia departments in South Africa participated to define a nurses' screening tool for preoperative assessment. RESULTS: Ninety-eight studies were identified, which generated 79 questions. An additional 14 items identified by the facilitators were added to create a list of 93 questions for the first round. The final screening tool consisted of 81 questions, of which 37 were deemed critical to identify patients who should be seen by a specialist prior to the day of surgery. CONCLUSION: A structured nurse-administered preoperative screening tool is proposed to identify high-risk patients who are likely to benefit from a timely preoperative specialist anaesthetist review to avoid cancellation on the day of surgery.

South African cardiovascular risk stratification guideline for non-cardiac surgery.

Executive summary The South African (SA) guidelines for cardiac patients for non-cardiac surgery were developed to address the need for cardiac risk assessment and risk stratification for elective non-cardiac surgical patients in SA, and more broadly in Africa.The guidelines were developed by updating the Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines on Perioperative Cardiac Risk Assessment and Management for Patients Who Undergo Non-cardiac Surgery, with a search of literature from African countries and recent publications. The updated proposed guidelines were then evaluated in a Delphi consensus process by SA anaesthesia and vascular surgical experts. The recommendations in these guidelines are:1. We suggest that elective non-cardiac surgical patients who are 45 years and older with either a history of coronary artery disease, congestive cardiac failure, stroke or transient ischaemic attack, or vascular surgical patients 18 years or older with peripheral vascular disease require further preoperative risk stratification as their predicted 30-day major adverse cardiac event (MACE) risk exceeds 5% (conditional recommendation: moderate-quality evidence).2. We do not recommend routine non-invasive testing for cardiovascular risk stratification prior to elective non-cardiac surgery in adults (strong recommendation: low-to-moderate-quality evidence).3. We recommend that elective non-cardiac surgical patients who are 45 years and older with a history of coronary artery disease, or stroke or transient ischaemic attack, or congestive cardiac failure or vascular surgical patients 18 years or older with peripheral vascular disease should have preoperative natriuretic peptide (NP) screening (strong recommendation: high-quality evidence).4. We recommend daily postoperative troponin measurements for 48 - 72 hours for non-cardiac surgical patients who are 45 years and older with a history of coronary artery disease, or stroke or transient ischaemic attack, or congestive cardiac failure or vascular surgical patients 18 years or older with peripheral vascular disease, i.e. (i) a baseline risk >5% for MACE 30 days after elective surgery (if no preoperative NP screening), or (ii) an elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal-prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurement before elective surgery (defined as BNP >99 pg/mL or a NT-proBNP >300 pg/mL) (conditional recommendation: moderate-quality evidence).Additional recommendations are given for the management of myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) and medications for comorbidities.

Towards the quantification of perioperative cardiovascular risk in the African context: A sub-analysis of the South African Surgical Outcomes Study and the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular disease in patients requiring non-cardiac surgery in Africa is not known. These patients are at increased risk for postoperative cardiovascular complications. OBJECTIVES: In this sub-study, to use data on comorbidities and surgical outcomes from two large observational studies, the South African Surgical Outcomes Study (SASOS) and the African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS), to investigate the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in elective surgical patients and the risk of postoperative cardiovascular complications in this population. METHODS: SASOS and ASOS were both prospective, observational cohort studies that collected data over 1 week in each participating centre. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications, which included prespecified and defined cardiovascular complications. We defined the cardiovascular disease burden of patients aged ≥45 years presenting for surgery (main objective), determined the relative risk of developing postoperative cardiovascular complications (secondary objective) and assessed the utility of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) for preoperative cardiovascular risk stratification of elective, non-cardiac surgical patients in Africa (third objective). RESULTS: The primary outcome analysis of 3 045 patients showed that patients with major cardiac complications were significantly older, with a higher prevalence of hypertension, coronary artery disease or congestive cardiac failure, and had undergone major surgery. In-hospital mortality for the cohort was 1.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial burden of cardiovascular disease in patients presenting for non-cardiac surgery in Africa is shown in the principal findings of this study. The RCRI has moderate discrimination for major cardiac complications and major adverse cardiac events in African patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.