Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During the fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan, which took place between June and September 2021, a significant number of COVID-19 cases with deterioration occurred in unvaccinated individuals < 65 years old. However, the risk factors for COVID-19 deterioration in this specific population have not yet been determined. This study developed a prediction method to identify COVID-19 patients < 65 years old who are at a high risk of deterioration. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,675 patients < 65 years old who were admitted to acute care institutions in Fukushima with mild-to-moderate-1 COVID-19 based on the Japanese disease severity criteria prior to the fifth wave. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals in Yamagata. Logistic regression analyses using cluster-robust variance estimation were used to determine predictors of disease deterioration, followed by creation of risk prediction scores. Disease deterioration was defined as the initiation of medication for COVID-19, oxygen inhalation, or mechanical ventilation starting one day or later after admission. RESULTS: The patients whose condition deteriorated (8.6%) tended to be older, male, have histories of smoking, and have high body temperatures, low oxygen saturation values, and comorbidities, such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise variable selection using logistic regression to predict COVID-19 deterioration retained comorbidities of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). Two predictive scores were created based on the optimism-corrected regression coefficients: the DOATS score, including all of the above risk factors, and the DOAT score, which was the DOATS score without oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.85) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUROCs for each score were both 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), and the calibration slopes were both 0.80. A decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical practicability of both scores in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We established two prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of COVID-19 deterioration in mild/moderate patients < 65 years old.

Real-world clinical outcomes of treatment with casirivimab-imdevimab among patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 during the Delta variant pandemic.

Background: Mutations of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may reduce the efficacy of neutralizing monoclonal antibody therapy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We here evaluated the efficacy of casirivimab-imdevimab in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 during the Delta variant surge in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. Methods: We enrolled 949 patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital between July 24, 2021 and September 30, 2021. Clinical deterioration after admission was compared between casirivimab-imdevimab users (n = 314) and non-users (n = 635). Results: The casirivimab-imdevimab users were older (P < 0.0001), had higher body temperature (≥ 38°C) (P < 0.0001) and greater rates of history of cigarette smoking (P = 0.0068), hypertension (P = 0.0004), obesity (P < 0.0001), and dyslipidemia (P < 0.0001) than the non-users. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that receiving casirivimab-imdevimab was an independent factor for preventing deterioration (odds ratio 0.448; 95% confidence interval 0.263-0.763; P = 0.0023). Furthermore, in 222 patients who were selected from each group after matching on the propensity score, deterioration was significantly lower among those receiving casirivimab-imdevimab compared to those not receiving casirivimab-imdevimab (7.66% vs 14.0%; p = 0.021). Conclusion: This real-world study demonstrates that casirivimab-imdevimab contributes to the prevention of deterioration in COVID-19 patients after hospitalization during a Delta variant surge.

Association between frailty and mortality among patients with accidental hypothermia: a nationwide observational study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Frailty has been associated with a risk of adverse outcomes, and mortality in patients with various conditions. However, there have been few studies on whether or not frailty is associated with mortality in patients with accidental hypothermia (AH). In this study, we aim to determine this association in patients with AH using Japan's nationwide registry data. METHODS: The data from the Hypothermia STUDY 2018&19, which included patients of ≥18 years of age with a body temperature of ≤35 °C, were obtained from a multicenter registry for AH conducted at 120 institutions throughout Japan, collected from December 2018 to February 2019 and December 2019 to February 2020. The clinical frailty scale (CFS) score was used to determine the presence and degree of frailty. The primary outcome was the comparison of mortality between the frail and non-frail patient groups. RESULTS: In total, 1363 patients were included in the study, of which 920 were eligible for the analysis. The 920 patients were divided into the frail patient group (N = 221) and non-frail patient group (N = 699). After 30-days of hospitalization, 32.6% of frail patients and 20.6% of non-frail patients had died (p < 0.001). Frail patients had a significantly higher risk of 90-day mortality (Hazard ratio [HR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-2.17; p < 0.001). Based on the Cox proportional hazards analysis using multiple imputation, after adjustment for age, potassium level, lactate level, pH value, sex, CPK level, heart rate, platelet count, location of hypothermia incidence, and rate of tracheal intubation, the HR was 1.69 (95% CI, 1.25-2.29; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that frailty was associated with mortality in patients with AH. Preventive interventions for frailty may help to avoid death caused by AH.

Current status of active cooling, deep body temperature measurement, and face mask wearing in heat stroke and heat exhaustion patients in Japan: a nationwide observational study based on the Heatstroke STUDY 2020 and 2021.

Aim: The study aimed to determine the current status of face mask use, deep body temperature measurement, and active cooling in patients suffering from heat stroke and heat exhaustion in Japan. Methods: This was a prospective, observational, multicenter study using data from the Heatstroke STUDY 2020-2021, a nationwide periodical registry of heat stroke and heat exhaustion patients. Based on the Bouchama heatstroke criteria, we classified the patients into two groups: severe and mild-to-moderate. We compared the outcomes between the two groups and reclassified them into two subgroups according to the severity of the illness, deep body temperature measurements, and face mask use. Cramer's V was used to determine the effect sizes for a comparison between groups. Results: Almost all patients in this study were categorized as having degree III based on the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine heatstroke criteria (JAAM-HS). However, the severe group was significantly worse than the mild-to-moderate group in outcomes like in-hospital death and modified Rankin Scale scores, when discharged. Heat strokes had significantly higher rates of active cooling and lower mortality rates than heat stroke-like illnesses. Patients using face masks often use them during labor, sports, and other exertions, had less severe conditions, and were less likely to be young male individuals. Conclusions: It is suggested that severe cases require a more detailed classification of degree III in the JAAM-HS criteria, and not measuring deep body temperature could have been a factor in the nonperformance of active cooling and worse outcomes.

Real-world clinical outcomes of treatment with molnupiravir for patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 during the Omicron variant pandemic.

It is unclear whether molnupiravir has a beneficial effect on vaccinated patients infected with the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We here evaluated the efficacy of molnupiravir in patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the Omicron variant surge in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. We enrolled patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who were admitted to hospitals between January and April, 2022. Clinical deterioration after admission was compared between molnupiravir users (n = 230) and non-users (n = 690) after 1:3 propensity score matching. Additionally, we performed forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis to evaluate the association between clinical deterioration after admission and molnupiravir treatment in the 1:3 propensity score-matched subjects. The characteristics of participants in both groups were balanced as indicated by covariates with a standardized mean difference of < 0.1. Regarding comorbidities, there was no imbalance between the two groups, except for the presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and cardiac disease. The clinical deterioration rate was significantly lower in the molnupiravir users compared to the non-users (3.90% vs 8.40%; P = 0.034). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that receiving molnupiravir was a factor for preventing deterioration (odds ratio 0.448; 95% confidence interval 0.206-0.973; P = 0.042), independent of other covariates. This real-world study demonstrates that molnupiravir contributes to the prevention of deterioration in COVID-19 patients after hospitalization during the Omicron variant phase.

Influence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the incidence of heat stroke and heat exhaustion in Japan: a nationwide observational study based on the Heatstroke STUDY 2019 (without COVID-19) and 2020 (with COVID-19).

AIM: To assess heat stroke and heat exhaustion occurrence and response during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter, registry-based study describes and compares the characteristics of patients between the months of July and September in 2019 and 2020. Factors affecting heat stroke and heat exhaustion were statistically analyzed. Cramér's V was calculated to determine the effect size for group comparisons. We also investigated the prevalence of mask wearing and details of different cooling methods. RESULTS: No significant differences were observed between 2019 and 2020. In both years, in-hospital mortality rates just exceeded 8%. Individuals >65 years old comprised 50% of cases and non-exertional onset (office work and everyday life) comprised 60%-70%, respectively. The recommendations from the Working Group on Heat Stroke Medicine given during the coronavirus disease pandemic in 2019 had a significant impact on the choice of cooling methods. The percentage of cases, for which intravascular temperature management was performed and cooling blankets were used increased, whereas the percentage of cases in which evaporative plus convective cooling was performed decreased. A total of 49 cases of heat stroke in mask wearing were reported. CONCLUSION: Epidemiological assessments of heat stroke and heat exhaustion did not reveal significant changes between 2019 and 2020. The findings suggest that awareness campaigns regarding heat stroke prevention among the elderly in daily life should be continued in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. In the future, it is also necessary to validate the recommendations of the Working Group on Heatstroke Medicine.

Accidental hypothermia: characteristics, outcomes, and prognostic factors-A nationwide observational study in Japan (Hypothermia study 2018 and 2019).

AIM: This study describes the clinical characteristics and outcomes as well as the prognostic factors of patients with accidental hypothermia (AH) using Japan's nationwide registry data. METHODS: The Hypothermia study 2018 and 2019, which included patients aged 18 years or older with a body temperature of 35°C or less, was a multicenter registry conducted at 87 and 89 institutions throughout Japan, with data collected from December 2018 to February 2019 and December 2019 to February 2020, respectively. RESULTS: In total, 1363 patients were enrolled in the registry, of which 1194 were analyzed in this study. The median (interquartile range) age was 79 (68-87) years, and the median (interquartile range) body temperature at the emergency department was 30.8°C (28.4-33.6°C). Forty-three percent of patients with AH had a mild condition, 35.2% moderate, and 21.9% severe. AH occurred in an indoor setting in 73.4% and was caused by acute medical illness in 49.3% of patients. A total of 101 (8.5%) patients suffered from cardiopulmonary arrest on arrival at the hospital. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 24.5%, the median (interquartile range) intensive care unit stay was 4 (2-7) days, and the median (interquartile range) hospital stay was 13 (4-27) days. In the multivariable logistic analysis, the prognostic factors were age (≥75 years old), male, activities of daily living (needing total assistance), cause of AH (trauma, alcohol), Glasgow Coma Scale score, and potassium level (>5.5 mEq/L). CONCLUSION: The mortality rate of AH was 24.5% in Japan. The prognostic factors developed in this study may be useful for the early prediction, prevention, and awareness of severe AH.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction model for heat-related illness.

In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based mortality prediction model for hospitalized heat-related illness patients. After 2393 hospitalized patients were extracted from a multicentered heat-related illness registry in Japan, subjects were divided into the training set for development (n = 1516, data from 2014, 2017-2019) and the test set (n = 877, data from 2020) for validation. Twenty-four variables including characteristics of patients, vital signs, and laboratory test data at hospital arrival were trained as predictor features for machine learning. The outcome was death during hospital stay. In validation, the developed machine learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, XGBoost) demonstrated favorable performance for outcome prediction with significantly increased values of the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) of 0.415 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.336-0.494], 0.395 [CI 0.318-0.472], 0.426 [CI 0.346-0.506], and 0.528 [CI 0.442-0.614], respectively, compared to that of the conventional acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE)-II score of 0.287 [CI 0.222-0.351] as a reference standard. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were also high over 0.92 in all models, although there were no statistical differences compared to APACHE-II. This is the first demonstration of the potential of machine learning-based mortality prediction models for heat-related illnesses.

Detection of circulating superantigens in an intensive care unit population.

OBJECTIVE: Plasma concentrations of superantigens were measured in an intensive care unit (ICU) population and the relationship of superantigen positive rates with the presence of sepsis was investigated. METHODS: Plasma samples were collected at least twice a week from 78 patients whose primary diagnoses were abdominal disorders (n = 27), respiratory disorders (n = 11), trauma (n = 10), burns (n = 10), cardiovascular disorders (n = 4), neurological disorders (n = 2), and others (n = 14). Five different species of superantigens, i.e., staphylococcal enterotoxins A, B, and C (SEA, SEB, and SEC), toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 (TSST-1), and streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin A (SPEA), were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: Significant levels of plasma superantigens were detected in 16 patients. SEA was found in seven patients, SEB in four patients, SEC in two patients, TSST-1 in six patients, and SPEA in five patients. Superantigen detection rates were 6% (1/17) in patients without systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), 0% (0/21) in SIRS patients without infection, 31% (5/16) in septic patients without shock, and 42% (10/24) in septic shock patients. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of superantigens was confirmed in part of the ICU population. The role of superantigens in the pathogenesis of sepsis remains to be determined.

Coronary-coronary artery bypass for right coronary revascularization in patients undergoing graft replacement of the ascending aorta.

We describe a surgical case of coronary-coronary bypass grafting using the saphenous vein for revascularization of the right coronary artery during concomitant graft replacement of the ascending aorta. This technique of coronary revascularization can be used as an alternative to avert the need for a prosthetic graft to coronary artery bypass grafting in cases with potential problems of anastomotic mismatch because of thin saphenous vein graft.

Primary lung cancer with growth into the lumen of the pulmonary artery.

We describe a 68-year-old man with primary lung cancer, misdiagnosed as pulmonary thromboembolism, with growth into the lumen of the pulmonary artery (PA). The tumor was surgically unresectable because of difficulty with the bronchoplasty; however, it was progressing rapidly and obstructing the main PA. We urgently performed a partial resection of this tumor and occluded the left PA ostium with autologous pericardium to avoid spread into the main PA.

Acute pulmonary embolism after cerebral infarction associated with a mobile thrombus in the ascending aorta.

Although the causes of stroke are diverse, thromboembolism due to a mobile aortic thrombus is rare. We describe a surgical case of acute massive pulmonary embolism after critical cerebral infarction associated with a mobile ascending aortic thrombus in a 52-year-old woman. Concomitant surgical removal of the aortic thrombus and pulmonary embolectomy was performed successfully, and the patient has been stable without recurrent thromboembolic complications after 18 months of follow-up.