Can the EuroSCORE predict midterm survival after aortic valve replacement?

OBJECTIVES: The EuroSCORE as a predictor for midterm survival after isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) and combined AVR with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery was tested. Survival in different risk-stratification groups also was compared to the survival of the general Dutch population. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: A single-center study performed in an educational hospital. PARTICIPANTS: All patients (N = 1,652) who underwent AVR with (n = 711) or without (n = 941) CABG surgery from January 2004 through December 2009. INTERVENTIONS: AVR with or without CABG surgery. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Univariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs as independent predictors of midterm mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the survival of different patients' risk subgroups, based on both the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs, with the normal Dutch population matched for age and sex. Both additive and logistic EuroSCOREs were significant predictors of midterm mortality after isolated AVR and AVR with CABG surgery. This was also true for the different risk-stratification groups. Except for survival after AVR with CABG surgery in the high-risk group based on the additive EuroSCORE, no difference was found between survival after surgery and survival of the age- and sex-matched normal population. CONCLUSIONS: Both EuroSCORE models can predict midterm survival after isolated AVR and combined AVR with CABG surgery. However, the EuroSCORE is not a predictor for midterm survival when comparing the patient groups with the general Dutch population matched for age and sex. Except for high-risk patients undergoing AVR with CABG surgery, other risk subgroups have similar midterm survival to that of their age- and sex-matched cohorts of the Dutch population.

Predictive value of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in predicting the operative mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. DESIGN: This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: This was a single-center study performed in an educational hospital. PARTICIPANTS: All patients (n = 1,885) who underwent AVR with (n = 813) or without (n = 1,072) CABG surgery between 1998 and 2007. INTERVENTIONS: AVR with or without CABG surgery. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Variable life-adjusted display curves were constructed to compare the observed operative mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the discriminatory power of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. Calibration between the predicted and the observed operative mortality was checked by comparing the predicted probability of the mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE. In the isolated AVR group, the additive EuroSCORE was 5.8% predicted mortality and the logistic EuroSCORE was 7.2%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 3.2%. In the AVR with CABG surgery group, the additive EuroSCORE was 7.2% and the logistic EuroSCORE was 8.8%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 5.3%. ROC curve analyses showed a high discriminatory power for both EuroSCOREs in both patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs had good discriminatory power, they were not able to predict the actual operative mortality accurately. Both EuroSCOREs overestimated the operative mortality, especially in low-risk patients.