The Natural Disease Course of Pancreatic Cyst-Associated Neoplasia, Dysplasia, and Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Results of a Microsimulation Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Estimates on the progression of precursor lesions to pancreatic cancer (PC) are scarce. We used microsimulation modeling to gain insight into the natural disease course of PC and its precursors. This information is pivotal to explore the efficacy of PC screening. METHODS: A Microsimulation Screening Analysis model was developed in which pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasms and cysts can evolve from low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) to PC. The model was calibrated to Dutch PC incidence data and Japanese precursor prevalence data (autopsy cases without PC) and provides estimates of PC progression (precursor lesion onset and stage duration). RESULTS: Mean LGD state durations of cysts and pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasms were 15.8 years and 17.1 years, respectively. Mean HGD state duration was 5.8 years. For lesions that progress to PC, the mean duration was 4.8-4.9 years for LGD lesions and 4.0-4.1 years for HGD lesions. In 13.7% of individuals who developed PC, the HGD state lasted less than 1 year. The probability that an individual at age 50 years developed PC in the next 20 years was estimated to be 1.8% in the presence of any cyst and 6.1% in case of an LGD mucinous cyst. This 20-year PC risk was estimated to be 5.1% for individuals with an LGD pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasm. CONCLUSIONS: Mean duration of HGD lesions before development of PC was estimated to be 4.0 years. This implies a window of opportunity for screening, presuming the availability of a reliable diagnostic test. The probability that an LGD cyst will progress to cancer was predicted to be low.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms in High-Risk Individuals: Incidence, Growth Rate, and Malignancy Risk.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In high-risk individuals (HRIs), we aimed to assess the cumulative incidence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and compare IPMN growth, neoplastic progression rate, and the value of growth as predictor for neoplastic progression to these in sporadic IPMNs. METHODS: We performed annual surveillance of Dutch HRIs, involving carriers of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) and PV-negative familial pancreatic cancer kindreds. HRIs with IPMNs were compared with Italian individuals without familial risk under surveillance for sporadic IPMNs. RESULTS: A total of 457 HRIs were followed for 48 (range 2-172) months; the estimated cumulative IPMN incidence was 46% (95% confidence interval, 28%-64%). In comparison with 442 control individuals, IPMNs in HRIs were more likely to grow ≥2.5 mm/y (31% vs 7%; P < .001) and develop worrisome features (32% vs 19%; P = .010). PV carriers with IPMNs more often displayed neoplastic progression (n = 3 [11%] vs n = 6 [1%]; P = .011), while familial pancreatic cancer kindreds did not (n = 0 [0%]; P = 1.000). The malignancy risk in a PV carrier with an IPMN was 23% for growth rates ≥2.5 mm/y (n = 13), 30% for ≥5 mm/y (n = 10), and 60% for ≥10 mm/y (n = 5). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of IPMNs in HRIs is higher than previously reported in the general population. Compared with sporadic IPMNs, they have an increased growth rate. PV carriers with IPMNs are suggested to be at a higher malignancy risk. Intensive follow-up should be considered for PV carriers with an IPMN growing ≥2.5 mm/y, and surgical resection for those growing ≥5 mm/y.

The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies.

Evidence supporting the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer (PC) screening is scant. Most clinical studies concern small populations with short follow-up durations. Mathematical models are useful to estimate long-term effects of PC screening using short-term indicators. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of PC screening on life expectancy (LE) in model-based studies. Therefore, we searched four databases (Embase, Medline, Web-of-science, Cochrane) until 30 May 2022 to identify model-based studies evaluating the impact of PC screening on LE in different risk populations. Two authors independently screened identified papers, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of studies. A descriptive analysis was performed and the impact of screening strategies on LE of different risk groups was reported. Our search resulted in 419 studies, of which eight met the eligibility criteria (mathematical model, PC screening, LE). Reported relative risks (RR) for PC varied from 1 to 70. In higher risk individuals (RR > 5), annual screening (by imaging with 56% sensitivity for HGD/early stage PC) predicted to increase LE of screened individuals by 20 to 260 days. In the general population, one-time PC screening was estimated to decrease LE (2-110 days), depending on the test characteristics and treatment mortality risk. In conclusion, although the models use different and sometimes outdated or unrealistic assumptions, it seems that PC screening in high-risk populations improves LE, and that this gain increases with a higher PC risk. Updated model studies, with data from large clinical trials are necessary to predict the long-term effect of PC screening more accurately.

Timeline of Development of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Successful Early Detection in High-Risk Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to investigate the progression to neoplasia from serial prediagnostic pancreatic imaging tests in high-risk individuals and identify factors associated with successful early detection. METHODS: We retrospectively examined the development of pancreatic abnormalities in high-risk individuals who were diagnosed with PC or underwent pancreatic surgery, or both, in 16 international surveillance programs. RESULTS: Of 2552 high-risk individuals under surveillance, 28 (1%) developed neoplastic progression to PC or high-grade dysplasia during a median follow-up of 29 months after baseline (interquartile range [IQR], 40 months). Of these, 13 of 28 (46%) presented with a new lesion (median size, 15 mm; range 7-57 mm), a median of 11 months (IQR, 8; range 3-17 months) after a prior examination, by which time 10 of 13 (77%) had progressed beyond the pancreas. The remaining 15 of 28 (54%) had neoplastic progression in a previously detected lesion (12 originally cystic, 2 indeterminate, 1 solid), and 11 (73%) had PC progressed beyond the pancreas. The 12 patients with cysts had been monitored for 21 months (IQR, 15 months) and had a median growth of 5 mm/y (IQR, 8 mm/y). Successful early detection (as high-grade dysplasia or PC confined to the pancreas) was associated with resection of cystic lesions (vs solid or indeterminate lesions (odds ratio, 5.388; 95% confidence interval, 1.525-19.029) and small lesions (odds ratio, 0.890/mm; 95% confidence interval 0.812-0.976/mm). CONCLUSIONS: In nearly half of high-risk individuals developing high-grade dysplasia or PC, no prior lesions are detected by imaging, yet they present at an advanced stage. Progression can occur before the next scheduled annual examination. More sensitive diagnostic tools or a different management strategy for rapidly growing cysts are needed.

Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals. DESIGN: From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit. RESULTS: 366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Protein biomarkers in pancreatic juice and serum for identification of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To date, surveillance of high-risk individuals for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not lived up to expectations, as identification of curable stages through imaging remains challenging. Biomarkers are therefore needed. Pancreatic juice (PJ) may be a promising source, because it is in direct contact with the ductal epithelial lining from which PDAC arises. We aimed to develop a panel of biomarkers from serum and PJ to detect PDAC for future surveillance purposes. METHODS: All patients who underwent PJ collection on secretin stimulation at the Erasmus MC were included. Both PJ and serum were evaluated. Protein levels were determined by the Lowry assay. Potential biomarkers (interleukin-8, interferon-γ, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin [NGAL], mucin 5, subtype AC [MUC5AC], mucin 2, phospholipase A2 group IB) were selected based on previously reported outcomes and assessed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) values were determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. RESULTS: This study included 59 cases and 126 surveilled control subjects (who underwent PJ collection), of whom 71 had a hereditary predisposition (35 genetic, 36 familial) and 55 had (suspected neoplastic) pancreatic cysts. CA19-9 values were available for 53 cases and 48 control subjects. Serum CA19-9, as well as PJ interleukin-8, NGAL and MUC5AC, were associated with PDAC independent of age, gender, and presence of diabetes mellitus. Serum CA19-9 had a significantly higher area under the curve (AUC; .86; 95% confidence interval [CI], .79-.94) than individual PJ markers (AUC, .62-.70). A combination of PJ markers and serum CA19-9 (panel 2: sensitivity 42% [95% CI, 29-57] and specificity 96% [95% CI, 86-100]) did not improve diagnostic performance compared with CA19-9 alone (sensitivity 70% [95% CI, 56-82] and specificity 85% [95% CI, 72-94]). CONCLUSIONS: High levels of serum CA19-9 and PJ-derived proteins are associated with PDAC. Prospective surveillance studies including individuals at risk of developing PDAC are required to validate these findings.

Identifying key factors for the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer screening: A model-based analysis.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high-risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5-yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery-related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: -57% for "Progressive-only" vs -41% for "Indolent Included"). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high-risk individuals.

Assessment of Glucose and HbA1c Monitoring in a Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance Program for High-Risk Individuals.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies suggest that new-onset diabetes mellitus is an early manifestation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Therefore, the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium recommends glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) monitoring in high-risk individuals (HRIs) undergoing surveillance. However, evidence that such monitoring improves PDAC detection is lacking. Our aim was to investigate the association between serum glucose and HbA1c values and the development of PDAC in HRIs undergoing surveillance. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the familial pancreatic cancer surveillance cohort, which follows hereditary predisposed HRIs yearly by magnetic resonance imaging and/or endoscopic ultrasound and blood sampling. Those who underwent fasting glucose and/or HbA1c monitoring at least once were eligible candidates. RESULTS: Four hundred four HRIs met the inclusion criteria. During a median follow-up of 41 months (range 14-120), 9 individuals developed PDAC and 4 (without PDAC) were diagnosed with new-onset diabetes mellitus. Glucose levels ranged from 3.4 to 10.7 mmol/L (mean 5.6 ± 0.7) and HbA1c levels from 25 to 68 mmol/mol (mean 37.7 ± 4.1). The mean values did not differ significantly between PDAC cases and controls. The percentage of individuals with at least one elevated value were comparable between PDAC cases and controls for glucose (33% and 27%, P = 0.707) and HbA1c (22% and 14%, P = 0.623). No consistent glucose or HbA1c trends over time suggested a correlation with PDAC development. DISCUSSION: In this HRI surveillance cohort, measuring glucose and HbA1c values did not contribute to PDAC detection. Larger and longer-term studies are needed to determine the final role of glucose and HbA1c monitoring in PDAC surveillance.

Modelling the impact of bias in fecal immunochemical testing on long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: As the impact of unmanaged bias (i.e. systematic source of inaccuracy) in fecal immunochemical test (FIT) analytical performance on long-term colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes is unknown, we assessed the impact bias in FIT performance in an ongoing FIT-based CRC screening program. METHODS: This study consisted of two parts: cross-sectional observational data analysis to estimate change in short-term outcomes and microsimulation modelling to estimate change in long-term outcomes assuming different levels of bias by assuming 15 % lower up to 15 % higher Hemoglobin detected in the stool compared to observed. Two scenarios were considered: bias occurring 1) one-time only, due to the occasional bias associated with the FIT kits used in 2020 and 2) consistently due to a constant bias associated with the FIT kits used from 2020 onwards. RESULTS: With a hypothetical bias of -15 % to +15 %, we observed a positivity rate ranging from 6.7 % to 7.8 %, and a detection rate for CRC between 0.65 % and 0.68 %. Single biases in FIT performance resulted in less than 0.1 % change in long-term CRC screening outcomes, while consistent biases resulted in a much larger change (up to 1.4 % in CRC cases and CRC-related deaths and up to 2.07 % in total costs). Detecting lower Hemoglobin concentrations resulted in a relatively larger change on long-term CRC outcomes in comparison to positive bias. CONCLUSIONS: Because of the substantial impact of consistent FIT bias, it is important to set evidence-based acceptance criteria of bias on long-term CRC screening outcomes and in particular, the introduction of an asymmetrical or upward shifted tolerance interval for FIT bias.

The additive value of CA19.9 monitoring in a pancreatic cyst surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for surgery. We aimed to evaluate the role of CA19.9 monitoring for early detection and management in a cyst surveillance population. METHODS: The PACYFIC-registry is a prospective collaboration that investigates the yield of pancreatic cyst surveillance performed at the discretion of the treating physician. We included participants for whom at least one serum CA19.9 value was determined by a minimum follow-up of 12 months. RESULTS: Of 1865 PACYFIC participants, 685 met the inclusion criteria for this study (mean age 67 years, SD 10; 61% female). During a median follow-up of 25 months (IQR 24, 1966 visits), 29 participants developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer. At baseline, CA19.9 ranged from 1 to 591 kU/L (median 10 kU/L [IQR 14]), and was elevated (≥37 kU/L) in 64 participants (9%). During 191 of 1966 visits (10%), an elevated CA19.9 was detected, and these visits more often led to an intensified follow-up (42%) than those without an elevated CA19.9 (27%; p < 0.001). An elevated CA19.9 was the sole reason for surgery in five participants with benign disease (10%). The baseline CA19.9 value was (as continuous or dichotomous variable at the 37 kU/L threshold) not independently associated with HGD or pancreatic cancer development, whilst a CA19.9 of ≥ 133 kU/L was (HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this pancreatic cyst surveillance cohort, CA19.9 monitoring caused substantial harm by shortening surveillance intervals (and performance of unnecessary surgery). The current CA19.9 cutoff was not predictive of HGD and pancreatic cancer, whereas a higher cutoff may decrease false-positive values. The role of CA19.9 monitoring should be critically appraised prior to implementation in surveillance programs and guidelines.

Systematic Review of Development and Content Validity of Patient-reported Outcome Measures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Do We Measure What We Measure?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patient-reported outcome measures are increasingly important in daily care and research in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. This study provides an overview of the content and content validity of IBD-specific patient-reported outcome measures on three selected constructs. METHODS: Databases were searched up to May 2019 for development and/or content validity studies on IBD-specific self-report measures on health-related quality of life, disability, and self-report disease activity in adults. Evidence was synthesised on content validity in three aspects: relevance, comprehensiveness, and comprehensibility following the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments methodology. Questionnaire items were organised in themes to provide an overview of important aspects of these constructs. RESULTS: For 14/44 instruments, 25 content validity studies were identified and 25/44 measures had sufficient content validity, the strongest evidence being of moderate quality, though most evidence is of low or very low quality. The Crohn's Life Impact Questionnaire and IBD questionnaire-32 on quality of life, the IBD-Control on disease activity, and the IBD Disability Index Self-Report and its 8-item version on disability, have the strongest evidence of sufficient relevance, comprehensiveness, and comprehensibility, ranging from moderate to very low quality. A fair number of recurring items themes, possibly important for the selected constructs, was identified. CONCLUSIONS: The body of evidence for content validity of IBD-specific health-related quality of life, self-report disease activity, and disability self-report measures is limited. More content validity studies should be performed after reaching consensus on the constructs of interest for IBD, and studies should involve patients.