Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry.

BACKGROUND: To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon ß-1a (IFN) using observational data. METHODS: We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression. RESULTS: A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Comparing ocrelizumab to interferon/glatiramer acetate in people with multiple sclerosis over age 60.

BACKGROUND: Ongoing controversy exists regarding optimal management of disease modifying therapy (DMT) in older people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). There is concern that the lower relapse rate, combined with a higher risk of DMT-related infections and side effects, may alter the risk-benefit balance in older pwMS. Given the lack of pwMS above age 60 in randomised controlled trials, the comparative efficacy of high-efficacy DMTs such as ocrelizumab has not been shown in older pwMS. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of ocrelizumab, a high-efficacy DMT, versus interferon/glatiramer acetate (IFN/GA) in pwMS over the age of 60. METHODS: Using data from MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included pwMS above 60 who switched to or started on ocrelizumab or IFN/GA. We analysed relapse and disability outcomes after balancing covariates using an inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) method. Propensity scores were obtained based on age, country, disease duration, sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale, prior relapses (all-time, 12 months and 24 months) and prior DMT exposure (overall number and high-efficacy DMTs). After weighting, all covariates were balanced. Primary outcomes were time to first relapse and annualised relapse rate (ARR). Secondary outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). RESULTS: A total of 248 participants received ocrelizumab, while 427 received IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR for ocrelizumab was 0.01 and 0.08 for IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR ratio was 0.15 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.33, p<0.001) for ocrelizumab compared with IFN/GA. On IPTW-weighted Cox regression models, HR for time to first relapse was 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.26, p<0.001). The hazard of first relapse was significantly reduced in ocrelizumab users after 5 months compared with IFN/GA users. However, the two groups did not differ in CDP or CDI over 3.57 years. CONCLUSION: In older pwMS, ocrelizumab effectively reduced relapses compared with IFN/GA. Overall relapse activity was low. This study adds valuable real-world data for informed DMT decision making with older pwMS. Our study also confirms that there is a treatment benefit in older people with MS, given the existence of a clear differential treatment effect between ocrelizumab and IFN/GA in the over 60 age group.

Effectiveness of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation versus natalizumab in progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab was not shown to modify disability in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). This matched observational study compared the effectiveness of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) with natalizumab in progressive MS. METHODS: Patients with primary/secondary progressive MS from seven AHSCT MS centres and the MSBase registry, treated with AHSCT or natalizumab, were matched on a propensity score derived from sex, age, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), number of relapses 12/24 months before baseline, time from MS onset, the most effective prior therapy and country. The pairwise-censored groups were compared on hazards of 6-month confirmed EDSS worsening and improvement, relapses and annualised relapse rates (ARRs), using Andersen-Gill proportional hazards models and conditional negative binomial model. RESULTS: 39 patients treated with AHSCT (37 with secondary progressive MS, mean age 37 years, EDSS 5.7, 28% with recent disability progression, ARR 0.54 during the preceding year) were matched with 65 patients treated with natalizumab. The study found no evidence for difference in hazards of confirmed EDSS worsening (HR 1.49, 95% CI 0.70 to 3.14) and improvement (HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.22 to 10.29) between AHSCT and natalizumab over up to 4 years. The relapse activity was also similar while treated with AHSCT and natalizumab (ARR: mean±SD 0.08±0.28 vs 0.08±0.25; HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.39 to 2.82). In the AHSCT group, 3 patients experienced febrile neutropenia during mobilisation, 9 patients experienced serum sickness, 6 patients required intensive care unit admission and 36 patients experienced complications after discharge. No treatment-related deaths were reported. CONCLUSION: This study does not support the use of AHSCT to control disability in progressive MS with advanced disability and low relapse activity.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Improvements in quality of life over 2 years with cladribine tablets in people with relapsing multiple sclerosis: The CLARIFY-MS study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) negatively affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate HRQoL in people with highly active relapsing MS treated with cladribine tablets (CladT; 3.5 mg/kg cumulative dose over 2 years) in CLARIFY-MS. METHODS: Changes in the MS quality of life (MSQoL)-54 scores were analysed using a repeated mixed-effects linear model. Subgroup analyses were performed for participants who were pretreatment-naïve and those pretreated with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) before initiating CladT. Safety and tolerability of CladT were also assessed. RESULTS: MSQoL-54 physical (mean change = 4.86; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.18, 6.53) and mental health (4.80; 95% CI = 3.13, 6.46) composite scores (primary endpoints) showed significant improvement at Month 24 versus Baseline (p < 0.0001). Changes in the MSQoL-54 scores were consistent across the pretreatment-naïve and DMT-pretreated subgroups. No new severe or opportunistic infections occurred. Most post-baseline lymphopenia events were Grade 1-2 in severity. Transient Grade-3 lymphopenia was observed in 19.7% (95/482) of participants. Grade-4 lymphopenia was not observed. CONCLUSIONS: CladT treatment significantly improved the mean MSQoL-54 physical and mental health composite scores over 2 years. CladT efficacy in HRQoL, relapse rates and Expanded Disability Status Scale scores demonstrates its multidimensional effects in MS treatment.

Comparing switch to ocrelizumab, cladribine or natalizumab after fingolimod treatment cessation in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: To compare the effectiveness and treatment persistence of ocrelizumab, cladribine and natalizumab in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis switching from fingolimod. METHODS: Using data from MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included subjects who had used fingolimod for ≥6 months and then switched to ocrelizumab, cladribine or natalizumab within 3 months after fingolimod discontinuation. We analysed relapse and disability outcomes after balancing covariates using an inverse-probability-treatment-weighting method. Propensity scores for the three treatments were obtained using multinomial-logistic regression. Due to the smaller number of cladribine users, comparisons of disability outcomes were limited to natalizumab and ocrelizumab. RESULTS: Overall, 1045 patients switched to ocrelizumab (n=445), cladribine (n=76) or natalizumab (n=524) after fingolimod. The annualised relapse rate (ARR) for ocrelizumab was 0.07, natalizumab 0.11 and cladribine 0.25. Compared with natalizumab, the ARR ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 0.67 (0.47 to 0.96) for ocrelizumab and 2.31 (1.30 to 4.10) for cladribine; the hazard ratio (95% CI) for time to first relapse was 0.57 (0.40 to 0.83) for ocrelizumab and 1.18 (0.47 to 2.93) for cladribine. Ocrelizumab users had an 89% lower discontinuation rate (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.20) than natalizumab, but also a 51% lower probability of confirmed disability improvement (95% CI, 0.32 to 0.73). There was no difference in disability accumulation. CONCLUSION: After fingolimod cessation, ocrelizumab and natalizumab were more effective in reducing relapses than cladribine. Due to the low ARRs in all three treatment groups, additional observation time is required to determine if statistical difference in ARRs results in long-term disability differences.

Autoimmunity and long-term safety and efficacy of alemtuzumab for multiple sclerosis: Benefit/risk following review of trial and post-marketing data.

Does preexisting or treatment-emergent autoimmunity increase the risk of subsequent autoimmune disease in individuals with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) after alemtuzumab? In the extended phase 2/3 trials, 34/96 (35.4%) patients with and 395/1120 (35.3%) without preexisting autoimmunity developed non-MS autoimmunity. Thyroid autoimmunity after alemtuzumab courses 1 or 2 did not increase subsequent non-thyroid autoimmune adverse events. Therefore, autoimmune disease before or after alemtuzumab treatment does not predict autoimmunity after further courses, so should not preclude adequate alemtuzumab dosing to control MS. Finally, post-marketing safety data contribute toward a full record of the alemtuzumab benefit/risk profile for the MS field.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Pregnancy-induced brain magnetic resonance imaging changes in women with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The effect of pregnancy on brain changes and radiological disease activity in women with multiple sclerosis (MS) is not well understood. This study was undertaken to describe the dynamics of lesion activity and brain volume changes during the pregnancy and postpartum periods. METHODS: This observational study of 62 women with relapsing-remitting MS included magnetic resonance imaging (221 scans) as well as clinical visits at baseline (<24 and >6 months before pregnancy), prepregnancy (<6 months before pregnancy), postpartum (<3 months after delivery), and follow-up (>12 and <24 months after delivery) periods. RESULTS: The majority of women had a mild disability and a short disease duration (median = 5.5 years). Eighteen (29.0%) women had a relapse during the year preceding pregnancy onset, nine (14.5%) during pregnancy, and 20 (32.3%) in the year following delivery. Disability status remained unchanged during follow-up. Women in the postpartum period (n = 62) had higher T2 lesion volume (median = 1.18 ml vs. 0.94 ml), greater annualized T2 lesion volume increase (0.23 ml vs. 0.0 ml), lower brain parenchymal fraction (85.6% vs. 86.4%), and greater annualized brain volume loss (-1.74% vs. -0.16%) compared with the prepregnancy period (all p < 0.001). At 12-24 months after delivery, women (n = 41) had higher T2 lesion volume (1.16 ml vs. 1.0 ml) and lower brain parenchymal fraction (86.0% vs. 86.5%) compared to the prepregnancy period (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The postpartum period was associated with an increase in T2 lesion volume and accelerated brain volume loss in a considerable proportion of women. This should be considered in treatment decision-making and designing clinical trials.

Risk of requiring a wheelchair in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: Data from the ORATORIO trial and the MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). METHODS: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0-6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. RESULTS: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: -4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.

Brainstem lesions are associated with diffuse spinal cord involvement in early multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Early infratentorial and focal spinal cord lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are associated with a higher risk of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The role of diffuse spinal cord lesions remains less understood. The purpose of this study was to evaluate focal and especially diffuse spinal cord lesions in patients with early relapsing-remitting MS and their association with intracranial lesion topography, global and regional brain volume, and spinal cord volume. METHODS: We investigated 58 MS patients with short disease duration (< 5 years) from a large academic MS center and 58 healthy controls matched for age and sex. Brain, spinal cord, and intracranial lesion volumes were compared among patients with- and without diffuse spinal cord lesions and controls. Binary logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between the volume and topology of intracranial lesions and the presence of focal and diffuse spinal cord lesions. RESULTS: We found spinal cord involvement in 75% of the patients (43/58), including diffuse changes in 41.4% (24/58). Patients with diffuse spinal cord changes exhibited higher volumes of brainstem lesion volume (p = 0.008). The presence of at least one brainstem lesion was associated with a higher probability of the presence of diffuse spinal cord lesions (odds ratio 47.1; 95% confidence interval 6.9-321.6 p < 0.001) as opposed to focal spinal cord lesions (odds ratio 0.22; p = 0.320). Patients with diffuse spinal cord lesions had a lower thalamus volume compared to patients without diffuse spinal cord lesions (p = 0.007) or healthy controls (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Diffuse spinal cord lesions are associated with the presence of brainstem lesions and with a lower volume of the thalamus. This association was not found in patients with focal spinal cord lesions. If confirmed, thalamic atrophy in patients with diffuse lesions could increase our knowledge on the worse prognosis in patients with infratentorial and SC lesions.

The clinical and paraclinical correlates of employment status in multiple sclerosis.

PURPOSE: To identify the clinical and paraclinical markers of employment status in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional sub-study investigating 1226 MS patients. To minimalized confounding effect, two groups of patients, matched by sex, age, and education, were selected: 307 patients with full time employment and 153 unemployed patients receiving disability pension. We explored associations between employment status and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), 25 Foot Walk Test (25FWT), Nine Hole Peg Test (9HPT), Brief International Cognitive Assessment for MS (BICAMS), Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), SLOAN charts (SLOAN), and brain volumetric MRI measures. RESULTS: Both groups differed significantly on all variables of interest (p < 0.001). In the univariate analyses, EDSS, SDMT (Symbol Digit Modalities Test) adjusted for BDI, 25FWT, and 9HPT best explained variability in vocational status. In multivariate analyses, the combination of EDSS, 25FWT, SDMT, BDI, and corpus callosum fraction (CCF) explained the greatest variability. As a next step, after patients were matched by EDSS, differences in SDMT, 25FWT (both p < 0.001), 9HPT, CCF, and T2 lesion volume were still present (all p < 0.005) between both groups. The best multivariate model consisted of SDMT, BDI, and T2 lesion volume. CONCLUSIONS: EDSS, walking ability, cognitive performance, and MRI volumetric parameters are independently associated with employment status.

Quantitative proteomic analysis of cerebrospinal fluid of women newly diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.

PURPOSE: The lack of reliable diagnostic and/or prognostic biomarkers for multiple sclerosis (MS) is the major obstacle to timely and accurate patient diagnosis in MS patients. To identify new proteins associated with MS we performed a detailed proteomic analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients newly diagnosed with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and healthy controls. MATERIAL: Reflecting significantly higher prevalence of MS in women we included only women patients and controls in the study. To eliminate a potential effect of therapy on the CSF composition, only the therapy-naïve patients were included. METHODS: Pooled CSF samples were processed in a technical duplicate, and labeled with stable-isotope coded TMT tags. To maximize the proteome coverage, peptide fractionation using 2D-LC preceded mass analysis using Orbitrap Fusion Tribrid Mass Spectrometer. Differential concentration of selected identified proteins between patients and controls was verified using specific antibodies. RESULTS: Of the identified 900 CSF proteins, we found 69 proteins to be differentially abundant between patients and controls. In addition to several proteins identified as differentially abundant in MS patients previously, we observed several linked to MS for the first time, namely eosinophil-derived neurotoxin and Nogo receptor. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm differential abundance of several previously proposed protein markers, and provide indirect support for involvement of copper-iron disbalance in MS. Most importantly, we identified two new differentially abundant CSF proteins that seem to be directly connected with myelin loss and axonal damage via TLR2 signaling and Nogo-receptor pathway in women newly diagnosed with RRMS.

Clinicogenomic factors of biotherapy immunogenicity in autoimmune disease: A prospective multicohort study of the ABIRISK consortium.

BACKGROUND: Biopharmaceutical products (BPs) are widely used to treat autoimmune diseases, but immunogenicity limits their efficacy for an important proportion of patients. Our knowledge of patient-related factors influencing the occurrence of antidrug antibodies (ADAs) is still limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The European consortium ABIRISK (Anti-Biopharmaceutical Immunization: prediction and analysis of clinical relevance to minimize the RISK) conducted a clinical and genomic multicohort prospective study of 560 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS, n = 147), rheumatoid arthritis (RA, n = 229), Crohn's disease (n = 148), or ulcerative colitis (n = 36) treated with 8 different biopharmaceuticals (etanercept, n = 84; infliximab, n = 101; adalimumab, n = 153; interferon [IFN]-beta-1a intramuscularly [IM], n = 38; IFN-beta-1a subcutaneously [SC], n = 68; IFN-beta-1b SC, n = 41; rituximab, n = 31; tocilizumab, n = 44) and followed during the first 12 months of therapy for time to ADA development. From the bioclinical data collected, we explored the relationships between patient-related factors and the occurrence of ADAs. Both baseline and time-dependent factors such as concomitant medications were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Mean age and disease duration were 35.1 and 0.85 years, respectively, for MS; 54.2 and 3.17 years for RA; and 36.9 and 3.69 years for inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). In a multivariate Cox regression model including each of the clinical and genetic factors mentioned hereafter, among the clinical factors, immunosuppressants (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.408 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.253-0.657], p < 0.001) and antibiotics (aHR = 0.121 [0.0437-0.333], p < 0.0001) were independently negatively associated with time to ADA development, whereas infections during the study (aHR = 2.757 [1.616-4.704], p < 0.001) and tobacco smoking (aHR = 2.150 [1.319-3.503], p < 0.01) were positively associated. 351,824 Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and 38 imputed Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles were analyzed through a genome-wide association study. We found that the HLA-DQA1*05 allele significantly increased the rate of immunogenicity (aHR = 3.9 [1.923-5.976], p < 0.0001 for the homozygotes). Among the 6 genetic variants selected at a 20% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold, the minor allele of rs10508884, which is situated in an intron of the CXCL12 gene, increased the rate of immunogenicity (aHR = 3.804 [2.139-6.764], p < 1 × 10-5 for patients homozygous for the minor allele) and was chosen for validation through a CXCL12 protein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) on patient serum at baseline before therapy start. CXCL12 protein levels were higher for patients homozygous for the minor allele carrying higher ADA risk (mean: 2,693 pg/ml) than for the other genotypes (mean: 2,317 pg/ml; p = 0.014), and patients with CXCL12 levels above the median in serum were more prone to develop ADAs (aHR = 2.329 [1.106-4.90], p = 0.026). A limitation of the study is the lack of replication; therefore, other studies are required to confirm our findings. CONCLUSION: In our study, we found that immunosuppressants and antibiotics were associated with decreased risk of ADA development, whereas tobacco smoking and infections during the study were associated with increased risk. We found that the HLA-DQA1*05 allele was associated with an increased rate of immunogenicity. Moreover, our results suggest a relationship between CXCL12 production and ADA development independent of the disease, which is consistent with its known function in affinity maturation of antibodies and plasma cell survival. Our findings may help physicians in the management of patients receiving biotherapies.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. CONCLUSION: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

Comparison of fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide for multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Oral immunotherapies have become a standard treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Direct comparison of their effect on relapse and disability is needed. METHODS: We identified all patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate or fingolimod, with minimum 3-month treatment persistence and disability follow-up in the global MSBase cohort study. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Three pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates and hazards of disability accumulation, disability improvement and treatment discontinuation (analysed with negative binomial models and weighted conditional survival models, with pairwise censoring). RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 614 (teriflunomide), 782 (dimethyl fumarate) or 2332 (fingolimod) patients, followed over the median of 2.5 years. Annualised relapse rates were lower on fingolimod compared with teriflunomide (0.18 vs 0.24; p=0.05) and dimethyl fumarate (0.20 vs 0.26; p=0.01) and similar on dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide (0.19 vs 0.22; p=0.55). No differences in disability accumulation (p≥0.59) or improvement (p≥0.14) were found between the therapies. In patients with ≥3-month treatment persistence, subsequent discontinuations were less likely on fingolimod than teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (p<0.001). Discontinuation rates on teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate were similar (p=0.68). CONCLUSION: The effect of fingolimod on relapse frequency was superior to teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate. The effect of the three oral therapies on disability outcomes was similar during the initial 2.5 years on treatment. Persistence on fingolimod was superior to the two comparator drugs.

Why patients with multiple sclerosis perceive improvement of gait during treatment with natalizumab?

Gait impairment is one of the common manifestations of multiple sclerosis (MS) and contributes to a loss of quality of life. Natalizumab, an anti-α4 integrin monoclonal antibody, has been shown to have an effect in treatment of MS, reducing relapses and inflammatory lesions. Aim of our study was to assess how patients perceive gait impairment over the first year of treatment with natalizumab and what is the objective correlate of this change. This is an open-label prospective observational study. Subjective gait evaluation was measured by Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 (MSWS-12). Objective gait assessment included Timed 25-Foot Walk Test (T25FW) and spatiotemporal parameters of gait measured by a GAITRite instrument during a self-selected speed of walking (normal walk) and a fast speed of walking (fast walk). We analysed data of 50 patients with a relapsing-remitting form of MS, median EDSS 3.5 (range 1.5-5). MSWS-12 score significantly decreased between the baseline and month 12 of treatment (p < 0.001). Walking velocity and step length were significantly improved in Normal walk tests (p < 0.001). During the Fast walk tests, a step length and a double support time of the gait cycle were significantly improved (p = 0.001). Change in MSWS-12 score confirmed the clinically significant improvement of gait in patients with MS treated with natalizumab for 1 year. The analysis of spatiotemporal gait parameters has shown a significant improvement in self-selected gait velocity and step length.

Brain MRI disease burden and sex differences in cognitive performance of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence that shows worse cognitive functioning in male patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), the role of brain pathology in this context is under-investigated. OBJECTIVE: To investigate sex differences in cognitive performance of MS patients, in the context of brain pathology and disease burden. METHODS: Brain MRI, neurological examination, neuropsychological assessment (Brief International Cognitive Assessment in MS-BICAMS, and Paced Auditory Verbal Learning Test-PASAT), and patient-reported outcome questionnaires were performed/administered in 1052 MS patients. RESULTS: Females had higher raw scores in the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) (57.0 vs. 54.0; p < 0.001) and Categorical Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) (63.0 vs. 57.0; p < 0.001), but paradoxically, females evaluated their cognitive performance by MS Neuropsychological Questionnaire as being worse (16.6 vs 14.5, p = 0.004). Females had a trend for a weaker negative correlation between T2 lesion volume and SDMT ([Formula: see text] = - 0.37 in females vs. - 0.46 in men; interaction p = 0.038). On the other hand, women had a trend for a stronger correlation between Brain Parenchymal Fraction (BPF) and a visual memory test (Spearman's [Formula: see text] = 0.31 vs. 0.21; interaction p = 0.016). All these trends were not significant after correction for false discovery rate. CONCLUSIONS: Although, females consider their cognition as worse, males had at a group level slightly worse verbal memory and information processing speed. However, the sex differences in cognitive performance were smaller than the variability of scores within the same sex group. Brain MRI measures did not explain the sex differences in cognitive performance among MS patients.

Lipid measures are associated with cognitive functioning in multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND: An association between lipid measures and cognitive decline in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) has been suggested. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate relationships between lipid profile and cognitive performance in a large observational cohort of MS patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 211 patients with 316 available pairs of lipid and cognitive measures performed over follow-up. The time between lipid and cognitive measures did not exceed 90 days. Baseline data were analyzed by non-parametric Spearman rank correlation test. Repeated measures were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusted for sex, age, education level, disease-modifying therapy status, and depression. RESULTS: Baseline analyses showed a correlation between higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and lower Categorical Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) (rho=-0.15; p = 0.04), lower Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) (rho=-0.16; p = 0.02) and lower Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R) scores (rho=-0.12; p = 0.04). Higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was negatively correlated with lower SDMT scores (rho=-0.16; p = 0.02) and lower Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test-3 (PASAT-3) scores (rho=-0.24; p = 0.03). Mixed model analyses of repeated measures showed a negative association between higher LDL-C and lower CVLT (B=-0.02; p < 0.001, Cohen´s d = 0.08) and lower BVMT-R (B=-0.01; p = 0.03, Cohen´s d=-0.12). Also, the negative association between HDL-C and PASAT-3 was confirmed in the mixed model analysis (B=-0.18; p = 0.01, Cohen´s d = 0.07). Additional adjustments of the models for disability assessed by Expanded Disability Status Scale or Normalized Brain Volume did not change the results of the models substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a mild negative impact of dyslipidemia on cognitive performance in patients with MS. We propose that dyslipidemia contributes, at least in part, to cognitive decline in MS patients, independent of brain atrophy.