Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management. SUBJECT/PATIENTS: A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multi-centre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast CT-KUB. METHODS: SSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest AIC) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n=1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n=789). RESULTS: Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). Mean age (±[SD]) was 47 (±14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (OR 0.8, 95%CI 0.64-1.01, p=0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95%CI 0.59-1.05, p=0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.97-1.75, p =0.08), stone size >5-7mm (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.16-0.25, p<0.0001), stone size >7mm (OR 0.11, 95%CI 0.08-0.15, p<0.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.43-0.81, p=0.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95%CI 0.25-0.39, p<0.001) ), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95%CI 1.1 - 1.67, p = 0.001), oral NSAID use (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.99 - 1.71, p=0.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR1.17, 95%CI 0.9 - 1.53, p=0.24) remained. Concordance-statistic (C-statistic) was 0.77 (95%CI 0.75 - 0.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these. CONCLUSION: The presented nomogram is available to use as an online calculator via www.BURSTurology.com and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management versus early intervention.

Predicting the Need for Biopsy to Detect Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer in Patients with a Magnetic Resonance Imaging-detected Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System/Likert ≥3 Lesion: Development and Multinational External Validation of the Imperial Rapid Access to Prostate Imaging and Diagnosis Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Although multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has high sensitivity, its lower specificity leads to a high prevalence of false-positive lesions requiring biopsy. OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a scoring system for MRI-detected Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PIRADS)/Likert ≥3 lesions containing clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The multicentre Rapid Access to Prostate Imaging and Diagnosis (RAPID) pathway included 1189 patients referred to urology due to elevated age-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and/or abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE); April 27, 2017 to October 25, 2019. INTERVENTION: Visual-registration or image-fusion targeted and systematic transperineal biopsies for an MRI score of ≥4 or 3 + PSA density ≥0.12 ng/ml/ml. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Fourteen variables were used in multivariable logistic regression for Gleason ≥3 + 4 (primary) and Gleason ≥4 + 3, and PROMIS definition 1 (any ≥4 + 3 or ≥6 mm any grade; secondary). Nomograms were created and a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. Models with varying complexity were externally validated in 2374 patients from six international cohorts. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The five-item Imperial RAPID risk score used age, PSA density, prior negative biopsy, prostate volume, and highest MRI score (corrected c-index for Gleason ≥3 + 4 of 0.82 and 0.80-0.86 externally). Incorporating family history, DRE, and Black ethnicity within the eight-item Imperial RAPID risk score provided similar outcomes. The DCA showed similar superiority of all models, with net benefit differences increasing in higher threshold probabilities. At 20%, 30%, and 40% of predicted Gleason ≥3 + 4 prostate cancer, the RAPID risk score was able to reduce, respectively, 11%, 21%, and 31% of biopsies against 1.8%, 6.2%, and 14% of missed csPCa (or 9.6%, 17%, and 26% of foregone biopsies, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The Imperial RAPID risk score provides a standardised tool for the prediction of csPCa in patients with an MRI-detected PIRADS/Likert ≥3 lesion and can support the decision for prostate biopsy. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this multinational study, we developed a scoring system incorporating clinical and magnetic resonance imaging characteristics to predict which patients have prostate cancer requiring treatment and which patients can safely forego an invasive prostate biopsy. This model was validated in several other countries.

Long-term outcomes of two ablation techniques for treatment of radio-recurrent prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: In men with recurrence of prostate cancer post radiation therapy, further treatment remains a challenge. The default salvage option of androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) has adverse effects. Alternatively, selected men may be offered salvage therapy to the prostate. Herein, we present long-term oncological outcomes of two whole-gland ablation techniques, cryotherapy (sCT) and high-intensity-focused ultrasound (sHIFU). METHODS: Men undergoing sCT (1995-2004) and sHIFU (2006-2018) at Western University were identified. Oncological endpoints included biochemical recurrence (BCR), ADT initiation, metastases, castration resistance (CRPC), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Survival analysis with competing risks of mortality was performed. Multivariable analysis was performed using Fine and Gray regression. RESULTS: A total of 187 men underwent sCT and 113 sHIFU. Mean (SD) age of the entire cohort was 69.9 (5.9 years), median pre-radiation PSA 9.6 ng/ml (IQR 6.1-15.2), and pre-salvage PSA 4.5 ng/ml (IQR 2.8-7.0). Median total follow-up was 116 months (IQR 67.5-173.8). A total of 170 (57.6%) developed BCR, 68 (23.4%) metastases, 143 (49.3%) were started on ADT, 58 (20.1%) developed CRPC, and 162 (56%) patients died of which 59 (36.4%) were of prostate cancer. On multivariable analysis, sHIFU (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.15-2.36, p = 0.006) and pre-salvage PSA (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06-1.13, p < 0.0001) were associated with a higher risk of BCR. Similarly, sHIFU patients had a higher risk of CRPC (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.23-4.35, p = 0.009). The cumulative incidence (for both treatments) of PCSM was 16.5% (95% CI 12.2-21.4%) at 10 years and 28.4% (95% CI 22.1-34.9%) at 20 years, with no difference between treatment modalities. Pre-salvage PSA was a common predictor for the measured oncological outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Although sHIFU had higher BCR and CRPC rates, there were no differences in PCSM when compared with sCT. The long-term oncological data on two ablation techniques highlighted that only 50% of patients started ADT after 10-year follow-up.

A prospective randomized trial of acute tocolysis in term labour with atosiban or ritodrine.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effects of the tocolytics atosiban and ritodrine in term labour. STUDY DESIGN: Women in term labour, requiring acute tocolysis, were prospectively randomized for treatment with either atosiban i.v. (n=70) or ritodrine i.v. (n=70). There were three indications for acute tocolysis: (1) fetal distress followed by continuation of labour, (2) fetal distress followed by emergency caesarean section (CS), and (3) arrest of contractions in women waiting for a secondary CS in the absence of fetal distress. Primary endpoints were maternal blood pressure (MBP) and maternal heart rate (MHR). Secondary endpoints were intra-uterine pressure, fetal heart rate (FHR), 5'-Apgar score and umbilical arterial pH. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics did not differ between the study groups. The ritodrine group showed a significant rise in MHR (p<0.001), MHR remained unaltered in the atosiban group (p=0.31). No significant changes occurred in systolic and diastolic BP in either group. FHR rose by a maximum of 11.6 bpm (8.5%) in the ritodrine group (p<0.001) compared to a rise of 4.9 bpm (4.8%) in the atosiban group (p=0.27). No differences were found in blood loss and fetal outcome. Compared to baseline, uterine pressure was reduced by a maximum of 55% (p<0.001) after ritodrine administration, compared to a maximal reduction of 54% (p<0.001) after atosiban administration. These effects did not differ between the two treatment groups. CONCLUSION: Considering the maternal effects, our results suggest a possible role for atosiban bolus in acute tocolysis in term labour.