Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.

The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes.

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces.

Background: In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide. Methods: We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961-1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate). Results: Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively. Conclusions: Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.

Assessment and Models of Insect Damage to Cones and Seeds of Pinus strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

Insect damage to cones and seeds has a strong impact on the regeneration of conifer forest ecosystems, with broader implications for ecological and economic services. Lack of control of insect populations can lead to important economic and environmental losses. Pinus strobiformis is the most widespread of the white pines in Mexico and is widely distributed throughout the mountains of northern Mexico. Relatively few studies have examined insect damage to the cones and seeds of these pines, especially in Mexico. In this study, we therefore analyzed insect damage to cones and seeds of P. strobiformis in Mexico by using X-ray and stereomicroscopic analysis. The specific objectives of the study were (a) to characterize insect damage by measuring external and internal cone traits, (b) to assess the health of seeds and cones of P. strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico, and (c) to estimate the relative importance of the effects of different environmental variables on cone and seed damage caused by insects. We found that 80% of P. strobiformis seeds and 100% of the tree populations studied had damage caused by insects. Most seeds were affected by Leptoglossus occidentalis, Tetyra bipunctata, Megastigmus albifrons, and the Lepidoptera complex (which includes Apolychrosis synchysis, Cydia latisigna, Eucosma bobana, and Dioryctria abietivorella). The cones of all tree populations were affected by some type of insect damage, with Lepidoptera causing most of the damage (72%), followed by Conophthorus ponderosae (15%), the hemipteran L. occidentalis (7%), and the wasp M. albifrons (6%). The proportion of incomplete seeds in P. strobiformis at the tree level, cone damage by M. albifrons and seed damage in L. occidentalis were associated with various climate and soil variables and with crown dieback. Thus, cone and seed insect damage can be severe and potentially impact seed production in P. strobiformis and the reforestation potential of the species. The study findings will enable managers to better identify insects that cause damage to cone and seeds. In addition, identification of factors associated with damage may be useful for predicting the levels of insect predation on seeds and cones.

Tall Pinus luzmariae trees with genes from P. herrerae.

CONTEXT: Pinus herrerae and P. luzmariae are endemic to western Mexico, where they cover an area of more than 1 million hectares. Pinus herrerae is also cultivated in field trials in South Africa and South America, because of its considerable economic importance as a source of timber and resin. Seed quality, afforestation success and desirable traits may all be influenced by the presence of hybrid trees in seed stands. AIMS: We aimed to determine the degree of hybridization between P. herrerae and P. luzmariae in seed stands of each species located in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango, Mexico. METHODS: AFLP molecular markers from samples of 171 trees across five populations were analyzed with STRUCTURE and NewHybrids software to determine the degree of introgressive hybridization. The accuracy of STRUCTURE and NewHybrids in detecting hybrids was quantified using the software Hybridlab 1.0. Morphological analysis of 131 samples from two populations of P. herrerae and two populations of P. luzmariae was also conducted by Random Forest classification. The data were compared by Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) in GenAlex 6.501. RESULTS: Hybridization between Pinus herrerae and P. luzmariae was observed in all seed stands under study and resulted in enhancement of desirable silvicultural traits in the latter species. In P. luzmariae, only about 16% molecularly detected hybrids correspond to those identified on a morphological basis. However, the morphology of P. herrerae is not consistent with the molecularly identified hybrids from one population and is only consistent with 3.3 of those from the other population. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of hybrid vigour (heterosis) in Mexican pines. Information about hybridization and introgression is essential for developing effective future breeding programs, successful establishment of plantations and management of natural forest stands. Understanding how natural hybridization may influence the evolution and adaptation of pines to climate change is a cornerstone to sustainable forest management including adaptive silviculture.

Gradual Distance Dispersal Shapes the Genetic Structure in an Alpine Grasshopper.

The location of the high mountains of southern Europe has been crucial in the phylogeography of most European species, but how extrinsic (topography of sky islands) and intrinsic features (dispersal dynamics) have interacted to shape the genetic structure in alpine restricted species is still poorly known. Here we investigated the mechanisms explaining the colonisation of Cantabrian sky islands in an endemic flightless grasshopper. We scrutinised the maternal genetic variability and haplotype structure, and we evaluated the fitting of two migration models to understand the extant genetic structure in these populations: Long-distance dispersal (LDD) and gradual distance dispersal (GDD). We found that GDD fits the real data better than the LDD model, with an onset of the expansion matching postglacial expansions after the retreat of the ice sheets. Our findings suggest a scenario with small carrying capacity, migration rates, and population growth rates, being compatible with a slow dispersal process. The gradual expansion process along the Cantabrian sky islands found here seems to be conditioned by the suitability of habitats and the presence of alpine corridors. Our findings shed light on our understanding about how organisms which have adapted to live in alpine habitats with limited dispersal abilities have faced new and suitable environmental conditions.

Spatial genetic structure in Pinus cembroides Zucc. at population and landscape levels in central and northern Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Spatial genetic structure (SGS) analysis is a powerful approach to quantifying gene flow between trees, thus clarifying the functional connectivity of trees at population and landscape scales. The findings of SGS analysis may be useful for conservation and management of natural populations and plantations. Pinus cembroides is a widely distributed tree species, covering an area of about 2.5 million hectares in Mexico. The aim of this study was to examine five natural seed stands of P. cembroides in the Sierra Madre Occidental to determine the SGS at population (within the seed stand) and landscape (among seed stands) levels in order to establish guidelines for the conservation and management of the species. We hypothesized that P. cembroides, in which the seeds are dispersed by birds and mammals, creates weaker SGS than species with wind-dispersed seeds. METHODS: DNA fingerprinting was performed using the amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) technique. In order to estimate the SGS at population and landscape levels, we measured the geographical (spatial) distance as the Euclidean distance. We also estimated the genetic distances between individuals using the pairwise kinship coefficient. RESULTS: The results showed non-significant autocorrelation in four out of five seed stands studied (i.e., a mainly random distribution in the space of the genetic variants of P. cembroides at population level). DISCUSSION: SGS was detected at the landscape scale, supporting the theory of isolation by distance as a consequence of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. However, the SGS may also have been generated by our sampling strategy. We recommended establishing a close network of seed stands of P. cembroides to prevent greater loss of local genetic variants and alteration of SGS. We recommend seed stands of P. cembroides of a minimum width of 225 m.

Predicting Pinus monophylla forest cover in the Baja California Desert by remote sensing.

The Californian single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla var. californiarum), a subspecies of the single-leaf pinyon (the world's only one-needled pine), inhabits semi-arid zones of the Mojave Desert (southern Nevada and southeastern California, US) and also of northern Baja California (Mexico). This tree is distributed as a relict subspecies, at elevations of between 1,010 and 1,631 m in the geographically isolated arid Sierra La Asamblea, an area characterized by mean annual precipitation levels of between 184 and 288 mm. The aim of this research was (i) to estimate the distribution of P. monophylla var. californiarum in Sierra La Asamblea by using Sentinel-2 images, and (ii) to test and describe the relationship between the distribution of P. monophylla and five topographic and 18 climate variables. We hypothesized that (i) Sentinel-2 images can be used to predict the P. monophylla distribution in the study site due to the finer resolution (×3) and greater number of bands (×2) relative to Landsat-8 data, which is publically available free of charge and has been demonstrated to be useful for estimating forest cover, and (ii) the topographical variables aspect, ruggedness and slope are particularly important because they represent important microhabitat factors that can determine the sites where conifers can become established and persist. An atmospherically corrected a 12-bit Sentinel-2A MSI image with 10 spectral bands in the visible, near infrared, and short-wave infrared light region was used in combination with the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). Supervised classification of this image was carried out using a backpropagation-type artificial neural network algorithm. Stepwise multiple linear binominal logistical regression and Random Forest classification including cross validation were used to model the associations between presence/absence of P. monophylla and the five topographical and 18 climate variables. Using supervised classification of Sentinel-2 satellite images, we estimated that P. monophylla covers 6,653 ± 319 ha in the isolated Sierra La Asamblea. The NDVI was one of the variables that contributed most to the prediction and clearly separated the forest cover (NDVI > 0.35) from the other vegetation cover (NDVI < 0.20). Ruggedness was the most influential environmental predictor variable, indicating that the probability of occurrence of P. monophylla was greater than 50% when the degree of ruggedness terrain ruggedness index was greater than 17.5 m. The probability of occurrence of the species decreased when the mean temperature in the warmest month increased from 23.5 to 25.2 °C. Ruggedness is known to create microclimates and provides shade that minimizes evapotranspiration from pines in desert environments. Identification of the P. monophylla stands in Sierra La Asamblea as the most southern populations represents an opportunity for research on climatic tolerance and community responses to climate variability and change.