Efficient and targeted COVID-19 border testing via reinforcement learning.

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, countries have relied on a variety of ad hoc border control protocols to allow for non-essential travel while safeguarding public health, from quarantining all travellers to restricting entry from select nations on the basis of population-level epidemiological metrics such as cases, deaths or testing positivity rates1,2. Here we report the design and performance of a reinforcement learning system, nicknamed Eva. In the summer of 2020, Eva was deployed across all Greek borders to limit the influx of asymptomatic travellers infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and to inform border policies through real-time estimates of COVID-19 prevalence. In contrast to country-wide protocols, Eva allocated Greece's limited testing resources on the basis of incoming travellers' demographic information and testing results from previous travellers. By comparing Eva's performance against modelled counterfactual scenarios, we show that Eva identified 1.85 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as random surveillance testing, with up to 2-4 times as many during peak travel, and 1.25-1.45 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as testing policies that utilize only epidemiological metrics. We demonstrate that this latter benefit arises, at least partially, because population-level epidemiological metrics had limited predictive value for the actual prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic travellers and exhibited strong country-specific idiosyncrasies in the summer of 2020. Our results raise serious concerns on the effectiveness of country-agnostic internationally proposed border control policies3 that are based on population-level epidemiological metrics. Instead, our work represents a successful example of the potential of reinforcement learning and real-time data for safeguarding public health.

Diagnostic accuracy of HPV16 early antigen serology for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer is independent of age and sex.

A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.

Reproductive factors, hormonal interventions, and gastric cancer risk in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer incidence is higher in men, and a protective hormone-related effect in women is postulated. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 2,084 cases and 7,102 controls from 11 studies in seven countries were included. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) assessing associations of key reproductive factors and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) with gastric cancer were estimated by pooling study-specific ORs using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A duration of fertility of ≥ 40 years (vs. < 20), was associated with a 25% lower risk of gastric cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58-0.96). Compared with never use, ever, 5-9 years and ≥ 10 years use of MHT in postmenopausal women, showed ORs of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.58-0.92), 0.53 (95% CI: 0.34-0.84) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.50-1.00), respectively. The associations were generally similar for anatomical and histologic subtypes. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that reproductive factors and MHT use may lower the risk of gastric cancer in women, regardless of anatomical or histologic subtypes. Given the variation in hormones over the lifespan, studies should address their effects in premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Furthermore, mechanistic studies may inform potential biological processes.

Dietary intake of vitamin C and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, a consortium of epidemiological studies on GC. METHODS: Fourteen case-control studies were included in the analysis (5362 cases, 11,497 controls). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary intake of vitamin C and GC, adjusted for relevant confounders and for intake of fruit and vegetables. The dose-response relationship was evaluated using mixed-effects logistic models with second-order fractional polynomials. RESULTS: Individuals in the highest quartile of dietary vitamin C intake had reduced odds of GC compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.72). Additional adjustment for fruit and vegetables intake led to an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.98). A significant inverse association was observed for noncardia GC, as well as for both intestinal and diffuse types of the disease. The results of the dose-response analysis showed decreasing ORs of GC up to 150-200 mg/day of vitamin C (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.71), whereas ORs for higher intakes were close to 1.0. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our pooled study suggest that vitamin C is inversely associated with GC, with a potentially beneficial effect also for intakes above the currently recommended daily intake (90 mg for men and 75 mg for women).

Association of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 with mortality and adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early risk stratification is necessary to prevent chronic kidney disease progression and complications. This systematic review aims to evaluate the association of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2), a member of the interleukin-1 receptor family, with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and renal function deterioration among chronic kidney disease patients. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, CENTRAL and Google Scholar were systematically searched from inception to December 20, 2023. Cohort studies examining the prognostic role of sST2 levels in pre-dialysis and dialysis patients were included. In case of 3 or more studies per outcome, conventional and dose-response meta-analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Overall, 21 studies were included comprising 15,100 patients. In pre-dialysis patients, the qualitative synthesis of studies suggested that high sST2 is associated with significantly increased all-cause mortality, while evidence regarding cardiovascular events or kidney disease progression was conflicting. In the dialysis population, high sST2 was linked to an elevated risk of all-cause (Hazard ratio-HR: 3.00, 95% confidence intervals-CI: 1.95-4.61) and cardiovascular (HR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.69-3.34) mortality. Dose-response meta-analysis suggested a log-linear association of sST2 with both all-cause (χ2: 34.65, p value < 0.001) and cardiovascular (χ2: 29.14, p value < 0.001) mortality, whereas findings regarding cardiovascular events were limited with mixed results. CONCLUSIONS: High sST2 values are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in pre-dialysis and dialysis patients, as well as with an elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality in the dialysis population. Further studies are needed to elucidate its potential association with cardiovascular events and kidney disease progression.

A risk prediction model for head and neck cancers incorporating lifestyle factors, HPV serology and genetic markers.

Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.

Human endogenous retroviruses in cancer: Oncogenesis mechanisms and clinical implications.

Human Endogenous Retroviruses (HERVs) are viral sequences integrated into the human genome, resulting from the infection of human germ-line cells by ancient exogenous retroviruses. Despite losing their replication and retrotransposition abilities, HERVs appear to have been co-opted in human physiological functions while their aberrant expression is linked to human disease. The role of HERVs in multiple malignancies has been demonstrated, however, the extent to which HERV activation and expression participate in the development of cancer is not yet fully comprehended. In this review article, we discuss the presumed role of HERVs in carcinogenesis and their promising diagnostic and prognostic implications. Additionally, we explore recent data on the HERVs in cancer therapeutics, either through the manipulation of their expression, to induce antitumor innate immunity responses or as cancer immunotherapy targets. Finally, more precise and higher resolution high-throughput sequencing approaches will further elucidate HERV participation in human physiological and pathological processes.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in more and less developed countries: Analysis from the INHANCE consortium.

OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the pooled case-control data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to compare cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption risk factors for head and neck cancer between less developed and more developed countries. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The location of each study was categorized as either a less developed or more developed country. We compared the risk of overall head and neck cancer and cancer of specific anatomic subsites associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Additionally, age and sex distribution between categories was compared. RESULTS: The odds ratios for head and neck cancer sites associated with smoking duration differed between less developed and more developed countries. Smoking greater than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oral cavity and laryngeal cancer in more developed countries, whereas the risk was greater for oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer in less developed countries. Alcohol consumed for more than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx cancer in less developed countries. The proportion of cases that were young (<45 years) or female differed by country type for some HNC subsites. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the degree of industrialization and economic development affects the relationship between smoking and alcohol with head and neck cancer.

Tea consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from epidemiological studies on the role of tea drinking in gastric cancer risk remains inconsistent. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between tea consumption and gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. METHODS: A total of 9438 cases and 20,451 controls from 22 studies worldwide were included. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer for regular versus non-regular tea drinkers were estimated by one and two-stage modelling analyses, including terms for sex, age and the main recognised risk factors for gastric cancer. RESULTS: Compared to non-regular drinkers, the estimated adjusted pooled OR for regular tea drinkers was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.97). When the amount of tea consumed was considered, the OR for consumption of 1-2 cups/day was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.09) and for >3 cups/day was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.80-1.03). Stronger inverse associations emerged among regular drinkers in China and Japan (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49-0.91) where green tea is consumed, in subjects with H. pylori infection (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.58-0.80), and for gastric cardia cancer (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.84). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a weak inverse association between tea consumption and gastric cancer.

Allium vegetables intake and the risk of gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

BACKGROUND: The role of allium vegetables on gastric cancer (GC) risk remains unclear. METHODS: We evaluated whether higher intakes of allium vegetables reduce GC risk using individual participant data from 17 studies participating in the "Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project", including 6097 GC cases and 13,017 controls. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using a two-stage modelling approach. RESULTS: Total allium vegetables intake was inversely associated with GC risk. The pooled OR for the highest versus the lowest study-specific tertile of consumption was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.56-0.90), with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I2 > 50%). Pooled ORs for high versus low consumption were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.55-0.86) for onions and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93) for garlic. The inverse association with allium vegetables was evident in Asian (OR 0.50, 95% CI, 0.29-0.86) but not European (OR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.81-1.13) and American (OR 0.66, 95% CI, 0.39-1.11) studies. Results were consistent across all other strata. CONCLUSIONS: In a worldwide consortium of epidemiological studies, we found an inverse association between allium vegetables and GC, with a stronger association seen in Asian studies. The heterogeneity of results across geographic regions and possible residual confounding suggest caution in results interpretation.

Development and Analytical Validation of a One-Step Five-Plex RT-ddPCR Assay for the Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 Transcripts in Clinical Samples.

Highly sensitive methodologies for SARS-CoV-2 detection are essential for the control of COVID-19 pandemic. We developed and analytically validated a highly sensitive and specific five-plex one-step RT-ddPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2. We first designed in-silico novel primers and probes for the simultaneous absolute quantification of three different regions of the nucleoprotein (N) gene of SARS-CoV-2 (N1, N2, N3), a synthetic RNA as an external control (RNA-EC), and Beta-2-Microglobulin (B2M) as an endogenous RNA internal control (RNA-IC). The developed assay was analytically validated using synthetic DNA and RNA calibrator standards and then was applied to 100 clinical specimens previously analyzed with a commercially available CE-IVD RT-qPCR assay. The analytical validation of the developed assay resulted in very good performance characteristics in terms of analytical sensitivity, linearity, analytical specificity, and reproducibility and recovery rates even at very low viral concentrations. The simultaneous absolute quantification of the RNA-EC and RNA-IC provides the necessary metrics for quality control assessment. Direct comparison of the developed one-step five-plex RT-ddPCR assay with a CE-IVD RT-qPCR kit revealed a very high concordance and a higher sensitivity [concordance: 99/100 (99.0%, Spearman's correlation coefficient: -0.850, p < 0.001)]. The developed assay is highly sensitive, specific, and reproducible and has a broad linear dynamic range, providing absolute quantification of SARS-COV-2 transcripts. The inclusion of two RNA quality controls, an external and an internal, is highly important for standardization of SARS-COV-2 molecular testing in clinical and wastewater samples.

Salt intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

PURPOSE: Previous studies show that consuming foods preserved by salting increases the risk of gastric cancer, while results on the association between total salt or added salt and gastric cancer are less consistent and vary with the exposure considered. This study aimed to quantify the association between dietary salt exposure and gastric cancer, using an individual participant data meta-analysis of studies participating in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. METHODS: Data from 25 studies (10,283 cases and 24,643 controls) from the StoP Project with information on salt taste preference (tasteless, normal, salty), use of table salt (never, sometimes, always), total sodium intake (tertiles of grams/day), and high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (tertiles of grams/day) were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age, and gastric cancer risk factors) odds ratios (aORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: Gastric cancer risk was higher for salty taste preference (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25-2.03), always using table salt (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.16-1.54), and for the highest tertile of high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.51) vs. the lowest tertile. No significant association was observed for the highest vs. the lowest tertile of total sodium intake (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.82-1.43). The results obtained were consistent across anatomic sites, strata of Helicobacter pylori infection, and sociodemographic, lifestyle and study characteristics. CONCLUSION: Salty taste preference, always using table salt, and a greater high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake increased the risk of gastric cancer, though the association was less robust with total sodium intake.

Estimation of the determinants for HIV late presentation using the traditional definition and molecular clock-inferred dates: Evidence that older age, heterosexual risk group and more recent diagnosis are prognostic factors.

OBJECTIVES: HIV late presentation (LP) has been increasing in recent years in Europe. Our aim was to investigate the characteristics of LP in Greece using in addition to the traditional definition for LP, the time interval between HIV infection and diagnosis. METHODS: Our nationwide sample included HIV-1 sequences generated from 6166 people living with HIV (PLWH) in Greece during the period 1999-2015. Our analysis was based on the molecularly inferred HIV-1 infection dates for PLWH infected within local molecular transmission clusters of subtypes A1 and B. RESULTS: Analysis of the determinants of LP was conducted using either CD4 counts or AIDS-defining condition at diagnosis or the time from infection to diagnosis. Older age, heterosexual transmission risk group and more recent diagnosis were associated with increased risk for LP. In contrast to previous studies, people who inject drugs (PWID) had a shorter median time to diagnosis (0.63 years) compared to men who have sex with men (MSM) (1.72 years) and heterosexuals (2.43 years). Using HIV infection dates that provide an unbiased marker for LP compared to CD4 counts at diagnosis, which are age-dependent, we estimated that the time to diagnosis increased gradually with age. Migrants infected regionally do not differ with respect to LP status compared to native Greeks. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that older people and heterosexuals are among those at higher risk for LP; and given the growing number of older people among newly diagnosed cases, tailored interventions are needed in these populations.

The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on Stroke Epidemiology and Care: A Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging data indicate an increased risk of cerebrovascular events with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and highlight the potential impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the management and outcomes of acute stroke. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the aforementioned considerations. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of observational cohort studies reporting on the occurrence and/or outcomes of patients with cerebrovascular events in association with their SARS-CoV-2 infection status. We used a random-effects model. Summary estimates were reported as odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We identified 18 cohort studies including 67,845 patients. Among patients with SARS-CoV-2, 1.3% (95% CI = 0.9-1.6%, I2 = 87%) were hospitalized for cerebrovascular events, 1.1% (95% CI = 0.8-1.3%, I2 = 85%) for ischemic stroke, and 0.2% (95% CI = 0.1-0.3%, I2 = 64%) for hemorrhagic stroke. Compared to noninfected contemporary or historical controls, patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection had increased odds of ischemic stroke (OR = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.43-8.92, I2 = 43%) and cryptogenic stroke (OR = 3.98, 95% CI = 1.62-9.77, I2 = 0%). Diabetes mellitus was found to be more prevalent among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to noninfected historical controls (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.00-1.94, I2 = 0%). SARS-CoV-2 infection status was not associated with the likelihood of receiving intravenous thrombolysis (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 0.65-3.10, I2 = 0%) or endovascular thrombectomy (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.35-1.74, I2 = 0%) among hospitalized ischemic stroke patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Odds of in-hospital mortality were higher among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to noninfected contemporary or historical stroke patients (OR = 5.60, 95% CI = 3.19-9.80, I2 = 45%). INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 appears to be associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke, and potentially cryptogenic stroke in particular. It may also be related to an increased mortality risk. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:380-388.

Changes in Stroke Hospital Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

[Figure: see text].

Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. METHODS: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45-69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. RESULTS: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (-0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (-0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = -1.4% (-2.4% to -0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1-3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

The association of women's birth size with risk of molecular breast cancer subtypes: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because birth size appears to be positively associated with breast cancer risk, we have studied whether this risk may differ according to molecular breast cancer subtypes. METHODS: A cohort of 22,931 women born 1920-1966 were followed up for breast cancer occurrence from 1961 to 2012, and 870 were diagnosed during follow-up. Archival diagnostic material from 537 patients was available to determine molecular breast cancer subtype, specified as Luminal A, Luminal B (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-), Luminal B (HER2+), HER2 type, and Triple negative (TN) breast cancer. Information on the women's birth weight, birth length and head circumference at birth was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each molecular subtype, applying Cox regression, and stratified by maternal height. RESULTS: Birth length (per 2 cm increments) was positively associated with Luminal A (HR = 1.2, 95% CI, 1.0-1.3), Luminal B (HER2+) (HR = 1.3, 95% CI, 1.0-1.7), and TN breast cancer (HR = 1.4, 95% CI, 1.0-1.9). No clear association was found for birth weight and head circumference. The positive associations of birth length were restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall (above population median). CONCLUSION: We found a positive association of birth length with risk of Luminal A, Luminal B (HER2+) and TN breast cancer that appears to be restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall. This may support the hypothesis that breast cancer risk is influenced by determinants of longitudinal growth and that this finding deserves further scrutiny.

Associations of air pollution and greenness with mortality in Greece: An ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have documented the adverse effects of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on health, while there has been less research on the effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and especially ozone (O3). Furthermore, there is limited evidence for the synergistic effects of exposure to pollutants and greenness. We investigated the association of long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness with natural-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Greece using an ecological study design. METHODS: Mortality and socioeconomic data were obtained from 1035 municipal units from the 2011 census data. Annual average PM2.5, NO2, BC and O3 concentrations for 2010 were derived from 100 × 100 m surfaces predicted by hybrid LUR models. The normalized difference vegetation index was used to assess greenness. We applied Poisson regression models on standardized mortality rates adjusted for socioeconomic indicators and lung cancer rates, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The analysis was conducted initially for the whole country and then separately for urban and rural areas. We assessed interactions between pollutants and greenness and applied two-exposure models. RESULTS: An interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5, NO2 and BC was associated with increases in natural-cause mortality (Relative Risk (RR) 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.11; RR 1.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.04) and RR 1.02 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.03), respectively), while PM2.5 and NO2 were also associated with cause-specific mortality. Greenness was associated with lower natural-cause (RR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.94, 0.96 per IQR) and cause-specific mortality. For all outcomes we estimated a protective association with O3 (natural-cause mortality RR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76, 0.82 per IQR). All associations were stronger in urban areas. We estimated negative statistically significant interactions between air pollution and greenness for respiratory morality and positive ones for cardiovascular mortality. Estimates were mostly robust to co-exposure adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support associations of air pollution and greenness with mortality, both in urban and rural areas of Greece. Further research is needed to elaborate on the synergies in cause-specific mortality. Our results on the interactions between pollutants and greenness may imply differential biological mechanisms for cause-specific mortality and warrant further investigation.

Modified Mediterranean diet score adapted to a southern Mediterranean population and its relation to overweight and obesity risk.

OBJECTIVES: The current study aimed to develop a modified Mediterranean diet (MMD) score adjusted to the southern Mediterranean countries' cultural specificities and to evaluate associations between adherence to this modified score and overweight/obesity risk in Moroccan adults. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. SETTING: Rural and urban areas of the five greatest provinces of Morocco. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 1516 participants were recruited between September 2009 and February 2017. Dietary assessment was obtained using a validated Moroccan FFQ. We constructed a MMD score focusing on twelve components. The MMD score ranged from 0 (no adherence to the traditional southern Mediterranean diet (MD)) to 12 (maximal adherence) and was categorised as low (scores 0-4), moderate (scores 5-7) and high (scores 8-12). RESULTS: Among the whole population, 754 (50·5 %) were women and 738 (49·5 %) were men, and the mean age was about 55·60 ± 13·70. In total, 58 % of participants were moderately active. Regarding educational level, 50·7 % were illiterate. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 43·3 and 8·6 %, respectively. In multivariate analyses, close adherence to MMD (scores 8-12) was associated with reduced overweight/obesity risk (OR 0·61, 95 % CI 0·44, 0·84). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was very high among Moroccan adults. Adherence to the traditional southern MD may help prevent overweight and obesity.