Benefits and Risks Associated With Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention in Old and Very Old Adults : Real-World Evidence From a Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: There is little consensus on using statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in adults aged 75 years or older due to the underrepresentation of this population in randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the benefits and risks of using statins for primary prevention in old (aged 75 to 84 years) and very old (aged ≥85 years) adults. DESIGN: Sequential target trial emulation comparing matched cohorts initiating versus not initiating statin therapy. SETTING: Territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 75 years or older who met indications for statin initiation from January 2008 to December 2015 were included. Participants with preexisting diagnosed CVDs at baseline, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), were excluded from the analysis. Among 69 981 eligible persons aged 75 to 84 years and 14 555 persons aged 85 years or older, 41 884 and 9457 had history of CHD equivalents (for example, diabetes) in the respective age groups. INTERVENTION: Initiation of statin therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, or heart failure), all-cause mortality, and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction). RESULTS: Of 42 680 matched person-trials aged 75 to 84 years and 5390 matched person-trials aged 85 years or older (average follow-up, 5.3 years), 9676 and 1600 of them developed CVDs in each age group, respectively. Risk reduction for overall CVD incidence was found for initiating statin therapy in adults aged 75 to 84 years (5-year standardized risk reduction, 1.20% [95% CI, 0.57% to 1.82%] in the intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis; 5.00% [CI, 1.11% to 8.89%] in the per protocol [PP] analysis) and in those aged 85 years or older (ITT: 4.44% [CI, 1.40% to 7.48%]; PP: 12.50% [CI, 4.33% to 20.66%]). No significantly increased risks for myopathies and liver dysfunction were found in both age groups. LIMITATION: Unmeasured confounders, such as lifestyle factors of diet and physical activity, may exist. CONCLUSION: Reduction for CVDs after statin therapy were seen in patients aged 75 years or older without increasing risks for severe adverse effects. Of note, the benefits and safety of statin therapy were consistently found in adults aged 85 years or older. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health Bureau, the Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Development and validation of 10-year risk prediction models of cardiovascular disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care using interpretable machine learning-based methods.

AIM: To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods. METHODS: In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients. CONCLUSION: Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care.

Evaluating different low-density lipoprotein cholesterol thresholds to initiate statin for prevention of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A target trial emulation study.

AIM: The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) when initiating therapy at different baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we emulated a sequence of trials on patients with T2DM with elevated LDL-C levels in every calendar month from January 2008 to December 2014. Pooled logistic regression was applied to obtain the hazard ratios for the major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure), all-cause mortality and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction) of statin therapy. RESULTS: The estimated hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of CVD incidence for statin initiation were 0.78 (0.72, 0.84) in patients with baseline LDL-C of 1.8-2.5 mmol/L (i.e., 70-99 mg/dL) and 0.90 (0.88, 0.92) in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L (i.e., ≥100 mg/dL) in intention-to-treat analysis, which was 0.59 (0.51, 0.68) and 0.77 (0.74, 0.81) in per-protocol analysis, respectively. No significant increased risks were observed for the major adverse events. The absolute 10-year risk difference of overall CVD in per-protocol analysis was -7.1% (-10.7%, -3.6%) and -3.9% (-5.1%, -2.7%) in patients with baseline LDL-C 1.8-2.5 and ≥2.6 mmol/L, respectively. The effectiveness and safety were consistently observed in patients aged >75 years initiating statin at both LDL-C thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the threshold of 2.6 mmol/L, initiating statin in patients with a lower baseline LDL-C level at 1.8-2.5 mmol/L can further reduce the risks of CVD and all-cause mortality without significantly increasing the risk of major adverse events in patients with T2DM, including patients aged >75 years.

A comparison of cardiovascular disease, cancer, mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy following treatment for hyperthyroidism: A Bayesian network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This network meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association of anti-thyroid drugs (ATD), radioactive iodine (RAI), and thyroidectomy with subsequent outcomes in patients with newly-diagnosed hyperthyroidism. METHODS: The Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for observational studies and randomized controlled trials. Included studies were published on or before 1st May 2022 involving at least two of the treatments among ATD, RAI, and thyroidectomy for hyperthyroidism. Pairwise comparisons and Bayesian network meta-analysis were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their credible interval (CrI) of outcomes, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, overall mortality, and Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO). RESULTS: A total of 22 cohort studies with 131,297 hyperthyroidism patients were included. Thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO than ATD (HR = 0.54, 95% CrI: 0.31, 0.96; HR = 0.31, 95% CrI: 0.12, 0.64) and RAI (HR = 0.62, 95% CrI: 0.41, 0.95; HR = 0.18, 95% CrI: 0.07, 0.35). RAI had a higher risk of GO (HR = 1.70, 95% CrI: 1.02, 2.99) than ATD treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian network meta-analysis indicated that thyroidectomy was associated with lower risks of mortality and GO in newly-diagnosed hyperthyroid patients compared to ATD and RAI. Relative to ATD, RAI therapy increased the risk of GO.

Age-specific associations between the number of co-morbidities, all-cause mortality and public direct medical costs in patients with type 2 diabetes: A retrospective cohort study.

AIM: To evaluate the association between the number of co-morbidities, all-cause mortality and public health system expenditure in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) across different age groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective observational study of T2D patients using electronic health records in Hong Kong was conducted. Patients were stratified by age (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80 years) and the number of co-morbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4), defined using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and prevalent chronic diseases identified in local surveys. The association between the number of co-morbidities, all-cause mortality and direct medical costs was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression and the gamma generalized linear model with log link function. RESULTS: A total of 262 212 T2D patients with a median follow-up of 10 years were included. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were the most common co-morbidities in all age groups. After age stratification, cardiovascular diseases dominated the top pair of co-morbidities in the older age groups (65-79 and ≥ 80 years), while inflammatory and liver disease were predominant among younger individuals. Compared with co-morbidity-free T2D patients, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of death for patients aged younger than 50 and 80 years or older with two co-morbidities were 1.31 (1.08-1.59) and 1.25 (1.15-1.36), respectively, and increased to 3.08 (2.25-4.21) and 1.98 (1.82-2.16), respectively, as the number of co-morbidities increased to four or more. Similar trends were observed for medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific co-morbidity patterns were observed for patients with T2D. A greater number of co-morbidities was associated with increased mortality and healthcare costs, with stronger relationships observed among younger patients.

Psychometric properties of EQ-5D-5L for use in patients with Graves' disease.

BACKGROUND: The EQ-5D-5 L is a commonly used generic measure of health. This study aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D-5 L in patients with Graves' disease (GD). METHODS: A prospective cohort of patients with GD recruited at three public hospitals in Hong Kong completed the EQ-5D-5 L and ThyPRO-39 questionnaires at baseline, 1-month, and 6-month follow-ups. Convergent validity was tested by examining the Spearman correlation between EQ-5D-5 L and ThyPRO-39 scores at baseline. 1-month test-retest reliability was assessed by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Gwet's Agreement Coefficient 2 (AC2), and percentage agreement. Responsiveness of EQ-5D-5 L index and EQ-VAS scores was assessed using effect size statistics (standardized effect size [SES] and standardized response mean [SRM]). RESULTS: Of 125 recruited patients, 101 (80.8%) and 100 (80.0%) patients were followed up at 1- and 6-month, respectively. For convergent validity, there was a moderate negative correlation between EQ-5D-5 L index or EQ-VAS score and ThyPRO-39 overall QoL-impact score (-0.350, -0.451), between EQ-VAS score and composite score (-0.483), and strong negative correlation between EQ-5D-5 L index score and composite score (-0.567). The Gwet's AC2 and percentage agreement were the highest in self-care (0.964 and 0.967), followed by mobility (0.952 and 0.962), usual activities (0.934 and 0.948), pain/discomfort (0.801 and 0.887), and anxiety/depression (0.788 and 0.882). The ICC for the EQ-5D-5 L index and the EQ-VAS was 0.707 and 0.700. For patients who reported having 'worsened' health at 6-month follow-up, the SES and SRM were - 0.66 and - 0.42 for EQ-5D-5 L index and - 1.15 and - 1.00 for EQ-VAS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5 L demonstrated convergent validity, test-retest reliability, and responsiveness to worsened health status among patients with GD.

Long-term outcome of patients treated with antithyroid drugs, radioactive iodine or surgery for persistent or relapsed Graves' disease.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to compare long-term mortality, morbidity, and cumulative healthcare costs between antithyroid drugs, radioactive iodine, and surgical treatment for patients with persistent or relapsed Graves' disease. METHODS: Data on patients with persistent or relapsed Graves' disease between 2006 and 2018 were retrieved from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. Hazard ratios (HRs) estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compare the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, psychological disease, Graves' ophthalmopathy, and cancer across treatment groups. The 10-year healthcare cost and change in co-morbidity status were also estimated. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 79 months (22 636 person-years), a total of 3443 patients (antithyroid drug 2294, radioactive iodine 755, surgery 394) were analysed. Compared with antithyroid drug treatment, surgery was associated with significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR 0.40, 95 per cent c.i. 0.36 to 0.45), cardiovascular disease (HR 0.54, 0.48 to 0.60), atrial fibrillation (HR 0.11, 0.09 to 0.14), psychological disease (HR 0.85, 0.79 to 0.92), Graves' ophthalmopathy (HR 0.09, 0.08 to 0.10), and cancer (HR 0.56, 0.50 to 0.63). Patients who underwent surgery also had a lower risk of all outcome events than those in the radioactive iodine group. The 10-year direct cumulative healthcare cost was €14 754 for surgery compared with €17 390 for antithyroid drugs, and €17 918 for the radioactive iodine group. CONCLUSION: Patients who underwent surgery for persistent or relapsed Graves' disease had lower risks of all-cause mortality and analysed morbidities. The 10-year cumulative healthcare cost in the surgery group was lowest among the three treatment alternatives.

Feasibility and acceptability of electronic EQ-5D-5L for routine measurement of HRQOL in patients with chronic musculoskeletal problems in Hong Kong primary care.

BACKGROUND: Information on HRQOL can enhance patient diagnosis and management but it is rarely available in routine clinical practice. This mixed-method study evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of the electronic EQ-5D-5L measurement of HRQOL in patients with chronic musculoskeletal problems in primary care. METHODS: In three primary care clinics, 665 patients with musculoskeletal problems completed the electronic EQ-5D-5L and Visual Analogue Scale (e-EQ-5D-5L/VAS), and a questionnaire on socio-demographics, perceived ease of use (PEOU), and perceived usefulness (PU) at baseline and two follow-ups. Patient completion and response rates, and time to complete the e-EQ-5D-5L/VAS were measured. During the same consultations, 49 doctors reviewed the e-EQ-5D-5L/VAS reports and completed a clinician questionnaire on PEOU, PU, and time spent to address each report. Individual interviews along with focus group discussions were conducted on patients, doctors, and research assistants for further exploration. RESULTS: Mean completion time reduced from baseline to first and second follow-up (120.66, 83.99, and 105.22 s, respectively). Completion and response rates were high at each follow-up visit (> 99.8% and > 91.11%, respectively). Doctors needed less than 2 min to read the report but felt the time required to address the report was a significant barrier. Some patients had difficulties using e-platforms, in understanding or answering questions; but, PEOU improved with time (p < 0.001). Most patients found the e-platforms useful (> 85.3%). Clinicians agreed a great majority of the reports were easy to use (76.0-85.1%) and useful (69.2-72.0%), particularly aiding with a holistic view of the patient's musculoskeletal problem. CONCLUSION: The e-EQ-5D-5L/VAS is a feasible and acceptable measurement of HRQOL of patients with chronic musculoskeletal problems in routine primary care in Hong Kong which can assist real-time management decisions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03609762.

Association of genetic variants related to combined exposure to higher BMI and waist-to-hip ratio on lifelong cardiovascular risk in UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the individual and combined association of BMI and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) with CVD risk using genetic scores of the obesity measurements as proxies. DESIGN: A 2 × 2 factorial analysis approach was applied, with participants divided into four groups of lifetime exposure to low BMI and WHR, high BMI, high WHR, and high BMI and WHR based on weighted genetic risk scores. The difference in CVD risk across groups was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. SETTING: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 408 003 participants were included from the prospective observational UK Biobank study. RESULTS: A total of 58 429 CVD events were recorded. Compared to the low BMI and WHR genetic scores group, higher BMI or higher WHR genetic scores were associated with an increase in CVD risk (high WHR: OR, 1·07; 95 % CI (1·04, 1·10)); high BMI: OR, 1·12; 95 % CI (1·09, 1·16). A weak additive effect on CVD risk was found between BMI and WHR (high BMI and WHR: OR, 1·16; 95 % CI (1·12, 1·19)). Subgroup analysis showed similar patterns between different sex, age (<65, ≥65 years old), smoking status, Townsend deprivation index, fasting glucose level and medication uses, but lower systolic blood pressure was associated with higher CVD risk in obese participants. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI and WHR were associated with increased CVD risk, and their effects are weakly additive. Even though there were overlapping of effect, both BMI and WHR are important in assessing the CVD risk in the general population.

Horner Syndrome in Giant Cell Arteritis: Case Series and Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) is a systemic inflammatory vasculitis that affects medium- and large-sized arteries and can result in permanent vision loss. In rare instances, Horner syndrome has been noticed at the time of GCA diagnosis, although the mechanism of both diagnoses occurring at the same time is not entirely understood. We reviewed 53 charts of all patients diagnosed with biopsy-proven GCA in tertiary neuro-ophthalmology practice to find patients who presented with new onset of Horner syndrome at the time of GCA diagnosis. METHODS: Two patients with biopsy-confirmed GCA who presented with concurrent Horner syndrome were found. Data on age, sex, and ophthalmic and neuroradiologic examination findings were collected. RESULTS: Patient 1 was a 67-year-old man who presented with new onset of vertical binocular diplopia and was diagnosed with right fourth cranial nerve palsy. He then developed left ptosis and miosis, and was diagnosed with Horner syndrome by pharmacologic testing. He also had persistently elevated inflammatory markers. Patient 2 was a 71-year-old man who presented with new onset of binocular vertical diplopia, bitemporal headaches, and jaw ache. Both of his inflammatory markers were elevated. On examination, he had left ptosis and myosis, and small comitant left hypertropia. The diagnosis of left Horner syndrome was confirmed on pharmacologic testing and left hypertropia was attributed to skew deviation. Both patients underwent temporal artery biopsy, which confirmed the diagnosis of GCA. Treatment with high dose of oral corticosteroids commenced, and vertical diplopia has completely resolved in both patients. Horner syndrome persisted in Patient 1 and resolved in Patient 2. MRI and MR angiography of the brain and neck were unrevealing in both patients. CONCLUSIONS: This case series describes 2 patients with new diagnosis of GCA and concurrent Horner syndrome, with new diagnosis of likely nuclear/fascicular fourth nerve palsy in one patient and skew deviation in the other. In both patients, vasculitis presumptively affected vertebral arteries and their branches supplying the first-order sympathetic neurons in the brainstem. Considering the severe complication of permanent vision loss in GCA, this diagnosis should be considered in older patients presenting with concurrent new onset of Horner syndrome.

Empty Sella in Neuro-Ophthalmology Patients Without Raised Intracranial Pressure.

BACKGROUND: Empty sella often supports a diagnosis of raised intracranial pressure (ICP) but is also seen in normal individuals. This study's objective was to determine the prevalence of empty and partially empty sella in neuro-ophthalmology patients undergoing MRI for indications other than papilledema or raised ICP. METHODS: Consecutive patients without papilledema or suspected raised ICP who underwent brain MRI between August 2017 and May 2021 were included in this study. Sagittal T1 images were evaluated by 2 independent, blinded neuroradiologists who graded the sella using the published criteria (Categories 1-5, with 1 being normal and 5 showing no visible pituitary tissue). Clinical parameters were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 613 patients (309 men; average age 56.69 ± 18.06 years) were included in this study with optic neuropathy as the most common MRI indication. A total of 176 patients had moderate concavity of the pituitary gland (Category 3), 81 had severe concavity (Category 4), and 26 had no visible pituitary tissue (Category 5). Sella appearance was mentioned in 92 patients' radiology reports (15%). There was a statistically significant difference in age between composite Categories 1 and 2 (mean 52.89 ± 18.91; P < 0.001) and composite Categories 4 and 5 (mean 63.41 ± 15.44), but not the other clinical parameters. CONCLUSION: Empty sella is common in neuro-ophthalmology patients without raised ICP; 17.4% of patients have severe concavity or no pituitary tissue visible. An isolated finding of empty or partially empty sella on imaging is therefore of questionable clinical value in this patient population.

Identifying and articulating the student experience in the Intercalated Enrichment Year.

BACKGROUND: Benefits of intercalation during an undergraduate medical degree are well-recognized. The University of Hong Kong implemented a compulsory Enrichment Year (EY) in its Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery degree programme (MBBS) in 2016. In their third year of study, students could work on an area of interest in any of three programme categories (i) intercalation/ university exchange (IC); (ii) research (RA); (iii) service/ humanitarian work (SH). This study aimed to explore the barriers, enablers, and overall student learning experiences from the first cohort of EY students in order to inform future development of the EY. METHODS: An exploratory sequential mixed-method study in 2019-20. Twenty students were purposively selected to attend three semi-structured focus group interviews. Conventional thematic analysis was employed and results assisted the design of a cross-sectional questionnaire. Sixty-three students completed the questionnaire. ANOVA or chi-square test was used to compare the difference in student's characteristics, barriers, enablers and perspectives on EY between programme categories. Adjusting student's characteristics, logistic regressions were conducted to identify the effect of programme categories on the EY experience. RESULTS: Most students (95% in the questionnaire) agreed that EY was worthwhile and more rewarding than expected. EY was positively regarded for enhancing personal growth and interpersonal relationships. The main barriers were financial difficulties, scholarship issues and insufficient information beforehand. A few students had practical (i.e. accommodation, cultural adaptation) problems. Potential enablers included better financial support, more efficient information exchange and fewer assignments and preparation tasks. Similar barriers were encountered by students across all three categories of EY activities. CONCLUSIONS: Personal growth was the most important benefit of the EY. Barriers were consistent with those identified in the literature except for cultural adaptation, which could be related to Hong Kong's unique historical context. Financial limitation was the most concerning barrier, as it could result in unequal access to educational opportunities. Better and timely access to scholarships and other funding sources need to be considered. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Ethics approval was obtained from the local Institutional Review Board of The University of Hong Kong/Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (UW 19-585 ).

Outcomes of Graves' Disease Patients Following Antithyroid Drugs, Radioactive Iodine, or Thyroidectomy as the First-line Treatment.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcomes of first-line choice among ATD, RAI, and thyroidectomy for GD patients remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term morbidity, mortality, relapse, and costs of GD patients receiving first-line treatment. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort of GD patients initiating first-line treatment with ATD, RAI, or thyroidectomy as a first-line primary treatment between 2006 and 2018 from Hong Kong Hospital Authority was analyzed. Risks of all-cause mortality, CVD, AF, psychological disease, diabetes, and hypertension were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The 10-year healthcare costs, change of comorbidities, and risk of relapse were compared across treatments. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 90 months with 47,470 person-years, 6385 patients (ATD, 74.93%; RAI, 19.95%; thyroidectomy, 5.12%) who received first-line treatment for GD were analyzed. Compared with ATD group, patients who had undergone surgery had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.363, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.332-0.396], CVD (HR = 0.216, 95% CI = 0.195-0.239), AF (HR = 0.103, 95% CI = 0.085-0.124), psychological disease (HR = 0.279, 95% CI = 0.258-0.301), diabetes (HR = 0.341, 95% CI = 0.305-0.381), and hypertension (HR = 0.673, 95% CI = 0.632-0.718). Meanwhile, RAI group was also associated with decreased risks of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.931, 95% CI = 0.882-0.982), CVD (HR = 0.784, 95% CI = 0.742-0.828), AF (HR = 0.622, 95% CI = 0.578-0.67), and psychological disease (HR = 0.895, 95% CI = 0.855-0.937). The relapse rate was 2.41% in surgery, 75.60% in ATD, and 19.53% in RAI group. The surgery group was observed with a significant lower Charlson Comorbidity Index score than the other 2 groups at the tenth-year follow-up. The mean 10-year cumulative healthcare costs in ATD, RAI, and surgery group was US$23915, US$24260, and US$20202, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GD patients who received surgery as an initial treatment appeared to have lower chances of all-cause mortality, CVD, AF, psychological disease, diabetes, and hypertension in the long-term when compared to those treated with ATD or RAI. The surgery group had the lowest relapse and direct healthcare costs among the 3 treatment modalities. This long-term cohort study suggested surgery may have a larger role to play as an initial treatment for GD patients.

Effects of bariatric surgery on kidney diseases, cardiovascular diseases, mortality and severe hypoglycaemia among patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery has been widely indicated for the management of obesity and related comorbidities. However, there are uncertainties pertaining to the risks of post-bariatric severe hypoglycaemia (SH), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), end-stage kidney diseases (ESKDs) and all-cause mortality in obese patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), especially among Asian populations. METHODS: A retrospective population-based cohort of 1702 obese T2DM patients who were free of CVD and ESKD were assembled based on the 2006-17 Hospital Authority database. One-to-five propensity-score matching was used to balance baseline covariates between patients in bariatric surgery and control groups. Incidence rates (IRs) of SH, CVD, Stage 4/5 chronic kidney diseases (CKD), ESKD and all-cause mortality events for two groups were calculated. Hazard ratios (HR) for SH, CVD and Stage 4/5 CKD events were assessed using Cox-proportional hazard models. Changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) were measured up to 60 months. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up period of 32 months with 5725 person-years, cumulative incidences of mortality, CVD, Stage 4/5 CKD, ESKD and SH were 0, 0.036, 0.050, 0.017 and 0.020, respectively. The surgery group had a significant reduction in risk of CVD events (HR = 0.464, P = 0.015) and no occurrence of mortality events. However, there were no significant differences in risks of SH [HR = 0.469, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.204-1.081], Stage 4/5 CKD (HR =0.896, 95% CI: 0.519-1.545) and ESKD (HR = 0.666, 95% CI: 0.264-1.683) between two groups, although IRs were lower in the surgery group. Surgical patients had significantly higher eGFR within 12 months and had significantly lower UACR until 48 months. CONCLUSIONS: Among obese T2DM patients, bariatric surgery lowered the risk of CVD and mortality, and was beneficial towards the kidney outcomes.

Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care.

AIMS: To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.

Generative adversarial networks for imputing missing data for big data clinical research.

BACKGROUND: Missing data is a pervasive problem in clinical research. Generative adversarial imputation nets (GAIN), a novel machine learning data imputation approach, has the potential to substitute missing data accurately and efficiently but has not yet been evaluated in empirical big clinical datasets. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of GAIN in imputing missing values in large real-world clinical datasets with mixed-type variables. The computation efficiency of GAIN was also evaluated. The performance of GAIN was compared with other commonly used methods, MICE and missForest. METHODS: Two real world clinical datasets were used. The first was that of a cohort study on the long-term outcomes of patients with diabetes (50,000 complete cases), and the second was of a cohort study on the effectiveness of a risk assessment and management programme for patients with hypertension (10,000 complete cases). Missing data (missing at random) to independent variables were simulated at different missingness rates (20, 50%). The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between imputed values and real values for continuous variables and the proportion of falsely classified (PFC) for categorical variables were used to measure imputation accuracy. Computation time per imputation for each method was recorded. The differences in accuracy of different imputation methods were compared using ANOVA or non-parametric test. RESULTS: Both missForest and GAIN were more accurate than MICE. GAIN showed similar accuracy as missForest when the simulated missingness rate was 20%, but was more accurate when the simulated missingness rate was 50%. GAIN was the most accurate for the imputation of skewed continuous and imbalanced categorical variables at both missingness rates. GAIN had a much higher computation speed (32 min on PC) comparing to that of missForest (1300 min) when the sample size is 50,000. CONCLUSION: GAIN showed better accuracy as an imputation method for missing data in large real-world clinical datasets compared to MICE and missForest, and was more resistant to high missingness rate (50%). The high computation speed is an added advantage of GAIN in big clinical data research. It holds potential as an accurate and efficient method for missing data imputation in future big data clinical research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03299010 ; Unique Protocol ID: HKUCTR-2232.

A pilot study on the validity and psychometric properties of the electronic EQ-5D-5L in routine clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Electronic measurement of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) may facilitate timely and regular assessments in routine clinical practice. This study evaluated the validity and psychometric properties of an electronic version of the EQ-5D-5L (e-EQ-5D-5L) in Chinese patients with chronic knee and/or back problems. METHODS: 151 Chinese subjects completed an electronic version of the Chinese (Hong Kong) EQ-5D-5L when they attended a primary care or orthopedics specialist out-patient clinic in Hong Kong. They also completed the Chinese Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), a Pain Rating Scale, and a structured questionnaire on socio-demographics, co-morbidities and health service utilization. 32 subjects repeated the e-EQ-5D-5L two weeks after the baseline. 102 subjects completed e-EQ-5D-5L and 99 completed the Global Rating on Change Scale at three-month clinic follow up. Construct validity was assessed by the association of EQ-5D-5L scores with external criterion of WOMAC scores. We tested mean differences of WOMAC scores between adjacent response levels of the EQ-5D-5L dimensions by one-way ANOVA, test-retest reliability by intra-class correlation, sensitivity by known group comparisons and responsiveness by changes in EQ-5D-5L scores over 3 months. RESULTS: There was an association between EQ-5D-5L and WOMAC scores. Mean WOMAC scores increased with the increase in adjacent response levels of EQ-5D-5L dimensions. Test-retest intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of EQ-5D-5L utility and EQ-VAS scores were 0.76 and 0.83, respectively, indicating good reliability. There were significant differences in the proportions reporting limitations in the EQ-5D-5L dimensions, the utility and VAS scores between the mild and severe pain groups (utility = 0.28, p = 0.001; VAS = 11.46, p < 0.001), and between primary care and specialist out-patient clinic patients (utility = 0.15, p = 0.001; VAS = 10.21, p < 0.001), supporting sensitivity. Among those reporting 'better' global health at three-months, their EQ-5D-5L utility and EQ-VAS scores were significantly increased from baseline (utility = 0.18, p < 0.001; VAS = 10.75, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The electronic version of the EQ-5D-5L is valid, reliable, sensitive and responsive in the measurement of HRQOL in Chinese patients with chronic knee or back pain in routine clinical practice.

Impact of sleep duration, physical activity, and screen time on health-related quality of life in children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Existing studies on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) mainly covered single growth stages of childhood or adolescence and did not report on the trends in the relationships of HRQoL with sleep duration, physical activity, and screen time. This study aimed to establish the population norm of HRQoL in children and adolescents aged 6-17 years and examine the associations of screen time, sleep duration, and physical activity with HRQoL in this population. METHODS: We conducted a large-scale cross-sectional population-based survey study of Hong Kong children and adolescents aged 6 to 17 years. A representative sample of students were interviewed to assess their HRQoL using PedsQL and EQ-5D-Y-5L. Multivariable homoscedastic Tobit regression with linear form or restricted cubic spline of predictors was used to analyze the associations between screen time, sleep duration, and HRQoL. Multiple imputation by chained equations was performed to deal with missing data. RESULTS: A total of 7555 respondents (mean age 11.5, SD 3.2; 55.1% female) were sampled. Their EQ VAS scores, PedsQL physical summary scores, and psychosocial summary scores were positively correlated with sleep duration and moderate/vigorous activity but was negatively correlated with screen time. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents who had longer exposure to screen, shorter sleep duration, and lower physical activity levels appeared to have poorer HRQoL as assessed by PedsQL and EQ-5D-Y-5L. Advice and guidance on screen time allocation for children and adolescents should be provided at the levels of school, community, and family.

The validity, reliability, sensitivity and responsiveness of a modified Patient Enablement Instrument (PEI-2) as a tool for serial measurements of health enablement.

BACKGROUND: Patient enablement is a core tenet of patient-centred and holistic primary care. The Patient Enablement Instrument (PEI) is a transitional measure limited in its ability to measure changes over time. A modified version, PEI-2, has been developed to measure enablement at a given time-point without comparison to a recalled baseline. OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity, reliability, sensitivity and responsiveness of PEI-2. METHODS: PEI-2 was modified from the Chinese PEI to assess enablement over 4 weeks in a prospective cohort study nested within a community support programme [Trekkers Family Enhancement Scheme (TFES)] in Hong Kong. Construct validity was assessed by factor analysis and convergent validity by Spearman's correlations with health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms. Internal reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha. Test-retest reliability was assessed by intraclass correlation (ICC), responsiveness by 12-24-month change in PEI-2 score and sensitivity by differences in change of PEI-2 score between TFES participants and a control group. RESULTS: PEI-2 demonstrated construct validity with all items loading on one factor (factor loadings >0.7). Convergent validity was confirmed by significant correlations with 12-item Short Form Questionnaire, version 2 (r = 0.1089-0.1919) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (r = -0.2030). Internal reliability was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.9095) and test-retest reliability moderate (ICC = 0.520, P = 0.506). Significant improvements in PEI-2 scores among the TFES group suggested good responsiveness (P < 0.001). The difference in change of PEI-2 scores between TFES and control was significant (P = 0.008), indicating good sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the validity, reliability, sensitivity and responsiveness of PEI-2 in measuring changes in enablement, making it a promising tool for evaluating enablement in cohort and intervention studies.

Effects of continuity of care on health outcomes among patients with diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) has placed a tremendous burden on healthcare systems around the world, resulting in a call for more effective service delivery models. Better continuity of care (CoC) has been associated with improved health outcomes. This review examines the association between CoC and health outcomes in patients with DM and/or HT. METHODS: This was a systematic review with searches carried out on 13 March 2021 through PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE and CINAHL plus, clinical trials registry and bibliography reviews. Eligibility criteria were: published in English; from 2000 onwards; included adult DM and/or HT patients; examined CoC as their main intervention/exposure; and utilised quantifiable outcome measures (categorised into health indicators and service utilisation). The study quality was evaluated with Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) appraisal checklists. RESULTS: Initial searching yielded 21,090 results with 42 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. High CoC was associated with reduced hospitalisation (16 out of 18 studies), emergency room attendances (eight out of eight), mortality rate (six out of seven), disease-related complications (seven out of seven), and healthcare expenses (four out of four) but not with blood pressure (two out of 13), lipid profile (one out of six), body mass index (zero out of three). Six out of 12 studies on diabetic outcomes reported significant improvement in haemoglobin A1c by higher CoC. Variations in the classification of continuity of care and outcome definition were identified, making meta-analyses inappropriate. CASP evaluation rated most studies fair in quality, but found insufficient adjustment on confounders, selection bias and short follow-up period were common limitations of current literatures. CONCLUSION: There is evidence of a strong association between higher continuity of care and reduced mortality rate, complication risks and health service utilisation among DM and/or HT patients but little to no improvement in various health indicators. Significant methodological heterogeneity in how CoC and patient outcomes are assessed limits the ability for meta-analysis of findings. Further studies comprising sufficient confounding adjustment and standardised definitions are needed to provide stronger evidence of the benefits of CoC on patients with DM and/or HT.