Is experience of the HIV/AIDS epidemic associated with responses to COVID-19? Evidence from the Rural Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Starting in late 2019, the coronavirus "SARS-CoV-2", which causes the disease Covid-19, spread rapidly and extensively. Although many have speculated that prior experience with infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS, Ebola, or SARS would better prepare populations in sub-Saharan Africa for COVID-19, this has not been formally tested, primarily due to data limitations. METHODS: We use longitudinal panel data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH, waves 2006, 2008, and 2020) to examine the association between exposure to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and perceptions of, and behavioral response to, the COVID-19 pandemic. We measured exposure to HIV infection through perceived prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the community, worry about HIV infection, perceived likelihood of HIV infection, and actual HIV status; and the experience of HIV/AIDS-related mortality through self-reports of knowing members of the community and extended family who died from AIDS (measured in 2006 or 2008). Our outcome measures were perceptions of COVID-19 presence in the community, perceptions of individual vulnerability to COVID-19, and prevention strategies to avoid COVID-19 collected through phone-interviews in 2020. RESULTS: Based on our data analysis using multivariable regression models, we found that the experience of HIV-related mortality was positively associated with perceptions of COVID-19 prevalence in the community and preventive behaviors for COVID-19. However, perceived vulnerability to HIV-AIDS infection and actual HIV positive status 10-years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic are generally not associated with COVID-19 perceptions and behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that COVID-19-related behaviors are impacted more by experience of AIDS mortality instead of HIV/AIDS risk perceptions, and that individuals may be correctly viewing HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 transmission as distinct disease processes.

Past local government health spending was not correlated with COVID-19 control in US counties.

CONTEXT: Wide variation in state and county health spending prior to 2020 enables tests of whether historically better state and locally funded counties achieved faster control over COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic in the Unites States prior to federal supplemental funding. OBJECTIVE: We used time-to-event and generalized linear models to examine the association between pre-pandemic state-level public health spending, county-level non-hospital health spending, and effective COVID-19 control at the county level. We include 2,775 counties that reported 10 or more COVID-19 cases between January 22, 2020, and July 19, 2020, in the analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Control of COVID-19 was defined by: (i) elapsed time in days between the 10th case and the day of peak incidence of a county's local epidemic, among counties that bent their case curves, and (ii) doubling time of case counts within the first 30 days of a county's local epidemic for all counties that reported 10 or more cases. RESULTS: Only 26% of eligible counties had bent their case curve in the first 6 months of the pandemic. Government health spending at the county level was not associated with better COVID-19 control in terms of either a shorter time to peak in survival analyses, or doubling time in generalized linear models. State-level public spending on hazard preparation and response was associated with a shorter time to peak among counties that were able to bend their case incidence curves. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing resource availability for public health in local jurisdictions without thoughtful attention to bolstering the foundational capabilities inside health departments is unlikely to be sufficient to prepare the country for future outbreaks or other public health emergencies.

The Role of Public Health Expenditures in COVID-19 control: Evidence from Local Governments in England.

For over 150 years the local health departments of England have been critical in controlling 19th and 20th century infectious epidemics. However, recent administrative changes have hollowed out their flexibility to serve communities. We use administrative data on past budgetary allocations per capita to public health departments at upper tier local areas (UTLAs) of England to examine whether public health funding levels were correlated with more rapid control of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between March and July of 2020. The dependent variable was the number of days between a UTLA's 10th case of COVID-19 and the day when new cases per 100,000 peaked and began to decline. Our models controlled for regional socio-economic factors. We found no correlation between local public health expenditure and the speed of control of COVID-19. However, overall public expenditure allocated to improve local areas helped reduce time to reach peak. Contrary to expectation, more dense areas such as London experienced shorter duration. Higher income areas had more rapid success in accelerating the time of the first peak in the first wave of their local COVID-19 incidence. We contribute to understanding the impact of how public expenditure and socio-economic factors affect an epidemic.