Optimization of Sampling for Monitoring Chemicals in the Food Supply Chain Using a Risk-Based Approach: The Case of Aflatoxins and Dioxins in the Dutch Dairy Chain.

Food safety monitoring faces the challenge of tackling multiple chemicals along the various stages of the food supply chain. Our study developed a methodology for optimizing sampling for monitoring multiple chemicals along the dairy supply chain. We used a mixed integer nonlinear programming approach to maximize the performance of the sampling in terms of reducing the risk of the potential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in the population. Decision variables are the number of samples collected and analyzed at each stage of the food chain (feed mills, dairy farms, milk trucks, and dairy processing plants) for each chemical, given a predefined budget. The model was applied to the case of monitoring for aflatoxin B1 /M1 (AFB1 /M1 ) and dioxins in a hypothetical Dutch dairy supply chain, and results were calculated for various contamination scenarios defined in terms of contamination fraction and concentrations. Considering various monitoring budgets for both chemicals, monitoring for AFB1 /M1 showed to be more effective than for dioxins in most of the considered scenarios, because AFB1 /M1 could result into more DALYs than dioxins when both chemicals are in same contamination fraction, and costs for analyzing one AFB1 /M1 sample are lower than for one dioxins sample. The results suggest that relatively more resources be spent on monitoring AFB1 /M1 when both chemicals' contamination fractions are low; when both contamination fractions are higher, relatively more budget should be addressed to monitoring dioxins.

Effects of different broiler production systems on health care costs in the Netherlands.

This study analyzed the effects of different broiler production systems on health care costs in the Netherlands. In addition to the conventional production system, the analysis also included 5 alternative animal welfare systems representative of the Netherlands. The study was limited to the most prevalent and economically relevant endemic diseases in the broiler farms. Health care costs consisted of losses and expenditures. The study investigated whether higher animal welfare standards increased health care costs, in both absolute and relative terms, and also examined which cost components (losses or expenditures) were affected and, if so, to what extent. The results show that health care costs represent only a small proportion of total production costs in each production system. Losses account for the major part of health care costs, which makes it difficult to detect the actual effect of diseases on total health care costs. We conclude that, although differences in health care costs exist across production systems, health care costs only make a minor contribution to the total production costs relative to other costs, such as feed costs and purchase of 1-d-old chicks.

Mid-term financial impact of animal welfare improvements in Dutch broiler production.

This study used a stochastic bioeconomic simulation model to simulate the business and financial risk of different broiler production systems over a 5-yr period. Simulation analysis was conducted using the @Risk add-in in MS Excel. To compare the impact of different production systems on economic feasibility, 2 cases were considered. The first case focused on the economic feasibility of a completely new system, whereas the second examined economic feasibilities when a farm switches from a conventional to an animal welfare-improving production system. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the key drivers of economic feasibility and to reveal systematic differences across production systems. The study shows that economic feasibility of systems with improved animal welfare predominantly depends on the price that farmers receive. Moreover, the study demonstrates the importance of the level and variation of the price premium for improved welfare, particularly in the first 5 yr after conversion. The economic feasibility of the production system increases with the level of welfare improvements for a sufficiently high price level for broiler meat and low volatility in producer prices. If this is not the case, however, risk attitudes of farmers become important as well as the use of potential risk management instruments.

Quantifying the effect of heat stress on daily milk yield and monitoring dynamic changes using an adaptive dynamic model.

Automation and use of robots are increasingly being used within dairy farming and result in large amounts of real time data. This information provides a base for the new management concept of precision livestock farming. From 2003 to 2006, time series of herd mean daily milk yield were collected on 6 experimental research farms in the Netherlands. These time series were analyzed with an adaptive dynamic model following a Bayesian method to quantify the effect of heat stress. The effect of heat stress was quantified in terms of critical temperature above which heat stress occurred, duration of heat stress periods, and resulting loss in milk yield. In addition, dynamic changes in level and trend were monitored, including the estimation of a weekly pattern. Monitoring comprised detection of potential outliers and other deteriorations. The adaptive dynamic model fitted the data well; the root mean squared error of the forecasts ranged from 0.55 to 0.99 kg of milk/d. The percentages of potential outliers and signals for deteriorations ranged from 5.5 to 9.7%. The Bayesian procedure for time series analysis and monitoring provided a useful tool for process control. Online estimates (based on past and present only) and retrospective estimates (determined afterward from all data) of level and trend in daily milk yield showed an almost yearly cycle that was in agreement with the calving pattern: most cows calved in winter and early spring versus summer and autumn. Estimated weekly patterns in terms of weekday effects could be related to specific management actions, such as change of pasture during grazing. For the effect of heat stress, the mean estimated critical temperature above which heat stress was expected was 17.8±0.56°C. The estimated duration of the heat stress periods was 5.5±1.03 d, and the estimated loss was 31.4±12.2 kg of milk/cow per year. Farm-specific estimates are helpful to identify management factors like grazing, housing and feeding, that affect the impact of heat stress. The effect of heat stress can be decreased by modifying these factors.

Factors underlying Dutch farmers' intentions to adapt their agronomic management to reduce Fusarium species infection in wheat.

Infection of wheat by Fusarium species can lead to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and mycotoxin contamination, thereby reducing food quality and food safety, and leading to economic losses. Agronomic management through the implementation of various pre-harvest measures can reduce the probability of Fusarium spp. infection in the wheat field. To design interventions that could stimulate wheat farmers to (further) improve their agronomic management to reduce FHB, it is key to understand farmers' behaviour towards adapting their management. The aim of this paper was to understand the intention, underlying behavioural constructs, and beliefs of Dutch wheat farmers to adapt their agronomic management to reduce FHB and mycotoxin contamination in wheat, applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Data were collected from 100 Dutch wheat farmers via a questionnaire. The standard TPB analysis was extended with an assessment of the robustness of the belief results to account for the statistical validity of the analysis on TPB beliefs (i.e. to address the so-called expectancy-value muddle). Forty-six percent of the farmers had a positive intention to change their management in the next 5 years. The two behavioural constructs significantly related to this intention were attitude and social norm, whereas association with the perceived behavioural control construct was insignificant indicating that farmers did not perceive any barriers to change their behaviour. Relevant attitudinal beliefs indicated specific attributes of wheat, namely yield, quality and safety (lower mycotoxin contamination). This indicates that strengthening these beliefs-by demonstrating that a change in management will result in a higher yield and quality and lower mycotoxin levels-will result in a stronger attitude and, subsequently, a higher intention to change management. Interventions to strengthen these beliefs should preferably go by the most important referents for social norms, which were the buyers and the farmer cooperatives in this study.

Effects of milk fat composition, DGAT1, and SCD1 on fertility traits in Dutch Holstein cattle.

Recently, selective breeding was proposed as a means of changing the fatty acid composition of milk to improve its nutritional quality. Before implementing such breeding objectives, effects on other economically important traits should be investigated. The objectives of this study were to examine 1) the effect of milk fat composition, and 2) the effect of polymorphisms of DGAT1 and SCD1 genes on female fertility in commercial Dutch Holstein-Friesian cattle. Data on 1,745 first-lactation cows were analyzed by fitting linear mixed models. We found that higher concentrations of trans fatty acids within total milk fat negatively affected reproductive performance. Furthermore, results suggested a potential effect of the DGAT1 polymorphism on nonreturn rates for insemination 28 and 56 d after the first service. Our results can be used to assess the correlated effects of breeding for improved milk fat composition on reproduction, thereby allowing for better evaluation of breeding programs before implementation.

The technical and economic impact of veterinary interventions aimed at reducing antimicrobial use on broiler farms.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat for both human and animal health. One of the main drivers of antimicrobial resistance is inappropriate antimicrobial use in livestock production. The aim of this study was to examine the technical and economic impact of tailor-made interventions, aimed at reducing antimicrobial use in broiler production. Historical (i.e., before intervention) and observational (i.e., after intervention) data were collected at 20 broiler farms. Results indicate that average daily gain and mortality generally increased after intervention, whereas feed conversion and antimicrobial use decreased. Economic performance after interventions was generally higher than before the interventions. Sensitivity analyses on price changes confirm the robustness of the findings.

Modeling the rejection probability in plant imports.

Phytosanitary inspection of imported plants and flowers is a major means for preventing pest invasions through international trade, but in a majority of countries availability of resources prevents inspection of all imports. Prediction of the likelihood of pest infestation in imported shipments could help maximize the efficiency of inspection by targeting inspection on shipments with the highest likelihood of infestation. This paper applies a multinomial logistic (MNL) regression model to data on import inspections of ornamental plant commodities in the Netherlands from 1998 to 2001 to investigate whether it is possible to predict the probability that a shipment will be (i) accepted for import, (ii) rejected for import because of detected pests, or (iii) rejected due to other reasons. Four models were estimated: (i) an all-species model, including all plant imports (136,251 shipments) in the data set, (ii) a four-species model, including records on the four ornamental commodities that accounted for 28.9% of inspected and 49.5% of rejected shipments, and two models for single commodities with large import volumes and percentages of rejections, (iii) Dianthus (16.9% of inspected and 46.3% of rejected shipments), and (iv) Chrysanthemum (6.9 and 8.6%, respectively). All models were highly significant (P < 0.001). The models for Dianthus and Chrysanthemum and for the set of four ornamental commodities showed a better fit to data than the model for all ornamental commodities. Variables that characterized the imported shipment's region of origin, the shipment's size, the company that imported the shipment, and season and year of import, were significant in most of the estimated models. The combined results of this study suggest that the MNL model can be a useful tool for modeling the probability of rejecting imported commodities even with a small set of explanatory variables. The MNL model can be helpful in better targeting of resources for import inspection. The inspecting agencies could enable development of these models by appropriately recording inspection results.

Improving food safety within the dairy chain: an application of conjoint analysis.

This study determined the relative importance of attributes of food safety improvement in the production chain of fluid pasteurized milk. The chain was divided into 4 blocks: "feed" (compound feed production and its transport), "farm" (dairy farm), "dairy processing" (transport and processing of raw milk, delivery of pasteurized milk), and "consumer" (retailer/catering establishment and pasteurized milk consumption). The concept of food safety improvement focused on 2 main groups of hazards: chemical (antibiotics and dioxin) and microbiological (Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, and Staphylococcus aureus). Adaptive conjoint analysis was used to investigate food safety experts' perceptions of the attributes' importance. Preference data from individual experts (n = 24) on 101 attributes along the chain were collected in a computer-interactive mode. Experts perceived the attributes from the "feed" and "farm" blocks as being more vital for controlling the chemical hazards; whereas the attributes from the "farm" and "dairy processing" were considered more vital for controlling the microbiological hazards. For the chemical hazards, "identification of treated cows" and "quality assurance system of compound feed manufacturers" were considered the most important attributes. For the microbiological hazards, these were "manure supply source" and "action in salmonellosis and M. paratuberculosis cases". The rather high importance of attributes relating to quality assurance and traceability systems of the chain participants indicates that participants look for food safety assurance from the preceding participants. This information has substantial decision-making implications for private businesses along the chain and for the government regarding the food safety improvement of fluid pasteurized milk.