Prevalence and incidence of clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents in Rwanda, Africa.

AIMS: To determine prevalence and incidence estimates for clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes from the Life For a Child Program (LFAC) with onset < 26 years in six representative districts, and the capital, of Rwanda. METHODS: Cases were identified from the LFAC registry and visits to district hospitals. Denominators were calculated from district-level population surveys. Period prevalence data were collected from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2012 and annual incidence rates were calculated, retrospectively, for 2004-2011. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: The prevalence of known Type 1 diabetes in seven districts in Rwanda for ages < 26 years was 16.4 [95% CI 14.6-18.4]/100 000 and for < 15 years was 4.8 [3.5-6.4]/100 000. Prevalence was higher in females (18.5 [15.8-21.4]/100 000) than males (14.1 [11.8-16.7]/100 000; P = 0.01) and rates increased with age. The annual incidence rate for those < 26 years was stable between 2007 and 2011 with a mean incidence over that time of 2.7 [2.0-3.7]/100 000 ( < 15 years = 1.2 [0.5-2.0]/100 000). Incidence rates were higher in females than males and peaked in males at ages 17 and 22 years and in females at age 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our report of known Type 1 diabetes cases shows lower incidence and prevalence rates in Rwanda than previously reported in the USA and most African countries. Incidence of recognized cases has increased over time, but has recently stabilized. However, the likelihood of missed cases due to death before diagnosis and misdiagnosis is high and therefore more definitive studies are needed.

Characterizing sudden death and dead-in-bed syndrome in Type 1 diabetes: analysis from two childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes registries.

AIMS: Type 1 diabetes mellitus increases the risk for sudden unexplained death, generating concern that diabetes processes and/or treatments underlie these deaths. Young (< 50 years) and otherwise healthy patients who are found dead in bed have been classified as experiencing 'dead-in-bed' syndrome. METHODS: We thus identified all unwitnessed deaths in two related registries (the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County) yielding 1319 persons with childhood-onset (age < 18 years) Type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1965 and 1979. Cause of death was determined by a Mortality Classification Committee (MCC) of at least two physician epidemiologists, based on the death certificate and additional records surrounding the death. RESULTS: Of the 329 participants who had died, the Mortality Classification Committee has so far reviewed and assigned a final cause of death to 255 (78%). Nineteen (8%) of these were sudden unexplained deaths (13 male) and seven met dead-in-bed criteria. The Mortality Classification Committee adjudicated cause of death in the seven dead-in-bed persons as: diabetic coma (n =4), unknown (n=2) and cardiomyopathy (n=1, found on autopsy). The three dead-in-bed individuals who participated in a clinical study had higher HbA(1c) , lower BMI and higher daily insulin dose compared with both those dying from other causes and those surviving. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden unexplained death in Type 1 diabetes seems to be increased 10-fold and associated with male sex, while dead-in-bed individuals have a high HbA(1c) and insulin dose and low BMI. Although sample size is too small for definitive conclusions, these results suggest specific sex and metabolic factors predispose to sudden unexplained death and dead-in-bed death.

Strategic plan: building a international strategy for risk reduction supercourse.

There is an important need to develop a global expert disaster network for Mitigating against disasters such the Chi-Chi Earthquake, the Tsunami, Avian flu. This systems needs to target both man made and natural disasters. We propose the building of a Global Health Disaster Network, with advanced features such as educational capabilities, and expert knowledge reachback. We provide a strategic plan to building a global disaster Network and Mitigation system.

Apparent epidemic of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in Midwestern Poland.

There is no information concerning the risk of developing insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) in eastern Europe. An IDDM registry has been developed in Midwest Poland for 1970-1984. The risk of developing IDDM in Polish children was determined through utilization of the registry. The incidence of IDDM in Polish children was very low compared with other Caucasian populations. There was a major increase in risk beginning in 1982; the incidence almost doubled from 3.5/100,000 in 1970-1981 to 6.6/100,000 in 1982-1984. The pattern of IDDM in the high-risk period was different from that in the low-risk period, with an altered seasonal pattern and unusual increased incidence in younger children. The rapid increase in incidence as well as altered epidemiologic patterns during this period suggest that major alterations of environmental factors were responsible for the change in risk.

The Pittsburgh study of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Risk for diabetes among relatives of IDDM.

AN analysis has been made of the family histories of a survey of 1280 cases of IDDM entering Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh between December 31, 1964 and January 1, 1981, discharged on insulin and initial age of onset under 17 yr. Family histories revealed an increased occurrence of IDDM among relatives in the affected families. The risk to siblings was estimated by age-corrected proband exclusion (3.3%) by age 20 and by the Li-Mantel segregation ratio estimator (6.0%). The comparison of these risk measures is discussed. The occurrence of IDDM among the parents is 2.6% and of NIDDM among the parents is 2.4%. A comparison of risk to relatives (parents, sibs, uncles, half-sibs) observed in the Pittsburgh Study to those of six other studies reveal essentially equivalent rates. There is no increased risk to siblings of a diabetic who had an early age of onset. There is an increased risk to siblings of a diabetic (10.5%) in families where at least one parent has insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) and also an increased risk to siblings of a diabetic (8.8%) when at least one parent has non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM). The average age of onset for second cases in a family is significantly older than age of onset in single case families.

The Pittsburgh insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) morbidity and mortality study. Mortality results.

A follow-up study of 1966 patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) who were diagnosed at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh (CHP) between 1950 and 1981 has been completed. The mean age of the population at follow-up was 21.2 yr with a mean duration of IDDM of 12.9 yr. Nine percent of the patients were deceased, a sevenfold excess in mortality compared with the U.S. population. The relative increase in mortality was greater for females than males and greater for blacks than whites. Before age 20, the primary excess in mortality was at onset of IDDM, or within 6 mo after onset, and was due to acute diabetic complications. After age 20, the annual mortality risk was approximately 2%, which was more than 20 times greater than for the U.S. population. Renal disease was responsible for the majority of these deaths. There was a reduced risk of dying for diabetic patients who were diagnosed between 1966 and 1971 compared with patients diagnosed during earlier years.

The Pittsburgh insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) registry. The incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (1965-1976).

An insulin-dependent Diabetes Mellitus Registry has been developed in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, through hospital record review and surveillance of pediatric practices. The yearly incidence ranged from 10/100,000 for nonwhite males to 16/100,000 for white males. There were no temporal trends in incidence for 1965-1976 nor major sex differences. Nonwhites had a slightly lower incidence, primarily in the younger age groups.

Prevalence of complications in IDDM by sex and duration. Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study II.

The prevalence of and interrelationships among all four major complications of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) and their risk factors are being examined in a large epidemiologic study of IDDM subjects diagnosed in childhood. This article focuses on the baseline prevalence of complications in the 657 subjects diagnosed between 1950 and 1980 and currently aged 8-48 yr, with a mean duration of 20 yr. In addition to background retinopathy being virtually universal after 20 yr of diabetes, proliferative retinopathy affects 70% of IDDM subjects after 30 yr duration. As with overt nephropathy, prevalence of proliferative retinopathy is marginally higher in females than in males at short durations; the previously reported male excess is limited to the subjects with IDDM of longer duration (greater than or equal to 25 yr). Somewhat different patterns of microalbuminuria are also seen by sex. Males show a threefold increase in prevalence from 10 to 25 yr duration, whereas females show a more constant prevalence across these durations. A further rise in microalbuminuria is seen in males but not females at greater than or equal to 30 yr duration, giving a combined prevalence of microalbuminuria and overt nephropathy at greater than or equal to 30 yr duration of 84% (males) and 59% (females). Distal symmetrical polyneuropathy shows a constant rise with duration and is only marginally higher in men. Prevalence of cardiovascular (coronary and cerebral) disease shows no sex difference, whereas peripheral vascular disease is particularly common in women after 30 yr duration (greater than 30%) compared with men (11%) when determined by ankle/arm blood pressure ratio less than 0.8 at rest or after exercise.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

HLA heterogeneity of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus at diagnosis. The Pittsburgh IDDM study.

Although some previous studies have suggested that insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) is a heterogeneous condition with variant forms being associated with HLA-DR types, the evidence, thus far, is conflicting. To address this issue, we have examined the presenting characteristics of a consecutive admission series of 200 newly diagnosed cases of IDDM from the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh. Because HLA-DR frequencies vary by race, data are presented only for the 172 white cases with complete HLA-DR typing. HLA-DR3 was found more frequently among male cases and DR4 among female cases (P less than 0.005). Generally, patients with DR4 presented with a severer clinical picture, being more likely to have impaired consciousness and significant dehydration. In addition, patients with DR4 were more likely to be acidotic, ketotic, and to more frequently report a recent viral infection. This latter finding was supported by a greater frequency of antibodies to Coxsackie-B viruses in the DR4 cases at presentation. These results therefore suggest that there is considerable heterogeneity in IDDM, at least in presenting characteristics, according to HLA-DR type.

A randomized walking trial in postmenopausal women: effects on physical activity and health 10 years later.

BACKGROUND: It is important to determine if permanent lifestyle changes may result from physical activity interventions and whether health may be affected by these changes. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a 10-year follow-up of physical activity and self-reported health status in participants of a randomized clinical trial of walking intervention. METHODS: Of the original 229 volunteer postmenopausal women who participated in the original clinical trial, 196 (N = 96 intervention and 100 controls) completed the 10-year follow-up telephone interview. The interview protocol included questions on self-reported walking for exercise and purposes other than exercise, the Paffenbarger sport and exercise index, functional status, and various chronic diseases and conditions. RESULTS: The median values for both usual walking for exercise and total walking were significantly higher for walkers compared with controls (for both, P = .01), with median differences of 706 and 420 kcal/wk, respectively. After excluding women who reported heart disease during the original trial, 2 women in the walking group (2%) and 11 women in the control group (12%) reported physician-diagnosed heart disease over the last 10 years (P = .07). There were also fewer hospitalizations, surgeries, and falls among women in the walking group, although these differences were not statistically significant (P>.05). CONCLUSIONS: Although limited by self-report, this study may be the first to demonstrate long-term exercise compliance to a randomized control trial in older women and to suggest that health benefits may have ensued as a result of these increased activity levels.

Counting diabetes in the next millennium. Application of capture-recapture technology.

Monitoring diabetes is critical for our understanding of the etiology and natural history of disease and for public health actions. However, traditional methods for monitoring are either too expensive (e.g., IDDM registries, NIDDM-OGTT prevalence surveys) or too inaccurate (routinely collected data or passive surveillance) for broad accurate, national programs for monitoring the incidence and prevalence of disease. We suggest that one technology called capture-recapture would considerably increase our ability to "count" diabetes, both nationally and globally. Implementation of this approach could lead to accurate inter- and intracountry data on rates of disease. Moreover, such tracking of diabetes could serve as the model for the monitoring of all disease in the 21st century and beyond.

International comparisons of IDDM mortality. Clues to prevention and the role of diabetes care.

A striking difference in all-cause mortality has been noted between individuals with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) from Finland and Allegheny County, PA. Mortality rates among people 25-37 yr of age from the Allegheny County IDDM Registry were over two times greater than the rates observed from the Finland IDDM Registry. Applying the Finnish rate to the structure of the IDDM population from Allegheny County suggests that about one-half of the deaths in the Allegheny County cohort may be theoretically preventable. Most deaths that might be avoided appear to be caused by the acute complications of diabetes. Deaths from acute-related causes were higher (as a proportion of all deaths) in the Allegheny County cohort than in Finland (46.2 vs. 33.3%). There is some indication that barriers to health care may be present among individuals with IDDM in the United States. Individuals without health insurance from the Children's Hospital IDDM Registry in Pittsburgh had fewer physician visits than those with insurance. Even for those with insurance, out-of-pocket health-care expenses were significant. People with lower household incomes (less than $20,000) spent more, as a percentage of their income, on medical supplies than those with higher incomes and may have been less likely to monitor blood glucose levels and visit an eye doctor because of it. These findings suggest that health system barriers, such as the access to care and the financial burden of diabetes care, in the United States may be affecting the health of adults with IDDM. Further investigation is needed to clarify the extent of barriers to care in IDDM and their contribution to adverse health outcomes.

Puberty, IDDM, and death in Japan. Diabetes Epidemiology Research International Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of age at onset on the prognosis of childhood IDDM in Japan. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 987 prepubertal-onset and 345 pubertal-onset IDDM cases who were registered by two nationwide surveys and who were diagnosed between 1965 and 1979. The living status was identified as of 1 January 1990 with the ascertainment rate of 96.5%. Prognosis was evaluated by cause- and age-specific mortality rates and life-table analyses; in addition, an attained-age-matched case-control study was analyzed by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 person-years for the pubertal-onset cases were significantly higher than those of the prepubertal-onset cases (835 [95% CI 573-1,168] vs. 391 [283-526]). Life-table analyses revealed that the survival rate of the pubertal-onset cases was lower than that of the prepubertal-onset cases for each observation period. Life-table analyses after the age of 15 years indicated that the prognosis of pubertal cases was almost the same as that of the prepubertal cases despite having a shorter duration of diabetes. The attained-age-matched case-control study indicated that the pubertal onset was a potent determinant of death. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of pubertal-onset IDDM was considerably poorer than that of prepubertal-onset IDDM.

National diabetes programs. Application of capture-recapture to count diabetes?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of capture-recapture methods using multiple, routinely collected, computerized data sources to estimate the numbers and prevalence of diabetes. Methods employed for regional and national monitoring of diabetes have been too inaccurate or too expensive. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A survey was undertaken that used four sources of ascertainment to identify prevalent cases of known diabetes in community of Northern Italy: diabetic clinic and family physicians, hospital discharges, prescriptions, and reagent strips and insulin syringes. Capture-recapture methods were employed to estimate the number of missing cases and to adjust for undercount to accurately estimate the number of people who had diabetes. RESULTS: We identified 2,069 unique prevalent cases of known diabetes with the intensive case-finding procedure. The diabetic clinic and family physicians data source identified the largest number of cases. The evaluation of the two sample capture-recapture estimates showed that they were all biased downward because of dependencies between sources. Log-linear modeling was employed to take into account the dependence among all data sources and the heterogeneity of diabetic patients. This method estimated that 2,586 cases existed, resulting in an ascertainment-adjusted prevalence of 2.77% (95% confidence interval, 2.44-3.10). Thus, despite the active case identification, approximately 20% could not be identified. However, the number of cases and rates could easily be adjusted using capture-recapture. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that a two-sample capture-recapture estimate could be very biased if the investigator is not assured that the sources are independent. However, if at least three data sources are employed, log-linear models allow estimation of the number and prevalence rate adjusted for the degree of undercount (in spite of both the dependence of data sources and the heterogeneity of the diabetic population). The critical factor, however, is that the application of multiple sources with capture-recapture methods could be applied across broad geographical areas and across time to have cost-effective monitoring of diabetes at local and national level.

A major improvement in the prognosis of individuals with IDDM in the past 30 years in Japan. The Diabetes Epidemiology Research International Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the time trends of mortality among individuals with IDDM in Japan. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A historical prospective study of two independent population-based cohorts composed of individuals who were diagnosed between 1965 and 1969 (1960s cohort) and between 1975 and 1979 (1970s cohort), which included 286 IDDM patients (onset age < 18 years) for the 1960s cohort and 779 patients for the 1970s cohort, was performed. After 10 years of observation, mortality status and causes of deaths between the two cohorts were compared. RESULTS: The age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 person-years of the 1960s cohort was 754 (95% CI, 471-1,141); in contrast, that of the 1970s cohort was only 196 (95% CI, 107-329) (P < 0.001). The standardized mortality ratio of the 1960s cohort was 1,432 (95% CI, 898-2,161), and that of the 1970s cohort was 489 (95% CI, 267-821). Analyses of the causes of deaths revealed a marked decline in recent years in the number of deaths by acute complications and renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: A major decline in the mortality of diabetic children in Japan may be attributed to the dramatic changes in the quality of care and medical infrastructure that occurred after the mid-1970s.

Islet cell autoimmunity in white and black children and adolescents with IDDM.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the frequency of islet cell antibodies (ICA) and antibodies to GAD65 and IA-2(ICA512) between black and white children and adolescents at the diagnosis of IDDM in a large consecutive series of cases from Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: ICA and antibodies to GAD65 and IA-2 were measured in 437 white and black children and adolescents who were diagnosed with IDDM at < 19 years of age at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh from January 1983 to December 1985, from January to December 1989, and from January 1996 to December 1997. RESULTS: The prevalence of ICA(H), GAD65, and IA-2 antibodies was significantly lower in blacks than whites at onset of the disease. In contrast, the prevalence of ICA(R) alone was higher in blacks. None of the antibodies were present in 12% of the blacks compared with 4% in whites. The same pattern was seen in both sexes. The prevalence of antibodies in white patients with onset of IDDM at <11 years of age was no different than in those who developed IDDM during adolescence. In contrast, black patients showed a significantly lower prevalence of almost all antibodies in the adolescent group. CONCLUSIONS: Black adolescents were more likely to not have antibodies, suggesting either that they have a nonautoimmune type of diabetes or that antibodies are not being detected by these assays.

Was there an epidemic of diabetes in nonwhite adolescents in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of IDDM in children aged < 20 years at diagnosis in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, for the period from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1994 and to compare the incidence between whites and nonwhites in the same area and for the same time period. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All new patients diagnosed between January 1990 and December 1994 who were aged < 20 years, on insulin, and residents of Allegheny County at diagnosis were identified from medical records of 23 hospitals in the Allegheny County area. To verify the completeness of the hospitals using the capture-recapture method, pediatricians and diabetologists were used as a secondary source. RESULTS: A total number of 257 patients were identified. The overall age-standardized incidence rate was 16.7/100,000. Nonwhites had a slightly higher incidence (17.6/100,000) than whites (16.5/100,000). In the 15-19 years age-group, the incidence in nonwhites (30.4/100,000) was almost three times higher than that in white (11.2/100,000) and more than two times higher than that in the previous period (from 1985 to 1989) (13.8/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: For the first time in the Allegheny County registry, and in any other registry, nonwhites showed a higher incidence of IDDM than whites. The high incidence in the 15-19 years age-group was responsible for this phenomenon. This epidemic of diabetes in adolescent nonwhites may be the result of a rising incidence of classical IDDM or another type of diabetes. Further studies using population-based registries are needed to determine whether this increase is being seen in other areas and other ethnic groups and to clarify the reasons for the increase in IDDM among blacks.

Mortality trends in type 1 diabetes. The Allegheny County (Pennsylvania) Registry 1965-1999.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate long-term mortality and its temporal trends as of 1 January 1999 among the 1,075 patients with type 1 diabetes (onset age <18 years, diagnosed between 1965 and 1979) who comprise the Allegheny County population-based registry. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Overall, sex- and race-specific mortality rates per person-year of follow-up were determined. Standardized mortality ratios were also calculated. Survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard model were also used. Temporal trends were examined by dividing the cohort into three groups by year of diagnosis (1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). RESULTS: Living status of 972 cases was ascertained as of January 1, 1999 (ascertainment rate 90.4%). The mean duration of diabetes was 25.2 +/- 5.8 (SD) years. Overall, 170 deaths were observed. The crude mortality rate was 627 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 532-728) and standardized mortality ratio was 519 (440-602). Life-table analyses by the Kaplan-Meier method indicated cumulative survival rates of 98.0% at 10 years, 92.1% at 20 years, and 79.6% at 30 years duration of diabetes. There was a significant improvement in the survival rate between the cohort diagnosed during 1965-1969 and that diagnosed during 1975-1979 by the log-rank test (P = 0.03). Mortality was higher in African-Americans than in Caucasians, but there were no differences seen by sex. The improvement in recent years was seen in both ethnic groups and sexes. CONCLUSIONS: An improvement in long-term survival was observed in the more recently diagnosed cohort. This improvement is consistent with the introduction of HbA1 testing, home blood glucose monitoring, and improved blood pressure therapy in the 1980s.

A comparison of the epidemiology of youth-onset insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus between Japan and the United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania).

Children in the United States are almost 20 times more likely to develop insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) than children in Japan. Little is known about the differences between the two countries that might account for this very large difference in risk. The current research compared the characteristics of IDDM in Japan with those of the United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania). Seasonality, relationship to socioeconomic status, and age at onset were similar. There was some suggestion of a sex difference. Of interest was that reported recent infections at onset were much higher in the United States. In addition, the risk to first-degree relatives in Japan appeared to be somewhat lower than in the United States, although this may have been the result of differences in ascertainment. These results are discussed in relation to potential factors that might account for the major incidence differences.

Shanghai, China, has the lowest confirmed incidence of childhood diabetes in the world.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in 0- to 14-year-old children in Shanghai, China, from 1980 to 1991. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were collected from hospitals with pediatric departments. The secondary source of validation was primary and middle schools. RESULTS: The average crude annual incidence rate was 0.61/100,000 (95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.77). The ascertainment-corrected incidence rates were 0.72/100,000 (0.57-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of childhood diabetes in Shanghai, China, was one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in the world.