Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Vietnamese.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The prevalence of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) has progressively increased worldwide but there are few studies in Asian populations. This study aimed to develop and validate a scoring system to predict severe ALGIB in Vietnamese. METHODS: Risk factors for severe ALGIB were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis using data from a retrospective cohort of 357 patients admitted to a tertiary hospital. These factors were weighted to develop the severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (SALGIB) score to predict severe ALGIB. The performance of SALGIB was validated in a prospective cohort of 324 patients admitted to 6 other hospitals using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: There were four factors at admission independently associated with severe ALGIB in the derivation cohort: heart rate ≥ 100/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, hematocrit < 35%, and platelets ≤ 150 × 103/µL. The SALGIB score determined severe ALGIB with AUC values of 0.91 and 0.86 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A SALGIB score < 2 associated with low risk of severe ALGIB in both cohorts (3.7% and 1.2%; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The SALGIB score has good performance in discriminating risk of severe ALGIB in Vietnamese.

An External Validation Study of the Oakland and Glasgow-Blatchford Scores for Predicting Adverse Outcomes of Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding in an Asian Population.

AIMS: This study is aimed at (1) validating the performance of Oakland and Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) scores and (2) comparing these scores with the SALGIB score in predicting adverse outcomes of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) in a Vietnamese population. METHODS: A multicenter cohort study was conducted on ALGIB patients admitted to seven hospitals across Vietnam. The adverse outcomes of ALGIB consisted of blood transfusion; endoscopic, radiologic, or surgical interventions; severe bleeding; and in-hospital death. The Oakland and GBS scores were calculated, and their performance was compared with that of SALGIB, a locally developed prediction score for adverse outcomes of ALGIB in Vietnamese, based on the data at admission. The accuracy of these scores was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared by the chi-squared test. RESULTS: There were 414 patients with a median age of 60 (48-71). The rates of blood transfusion, hemostatic intervention, severe bleeding, and in-hospital death were 26.8%, 15.2%, 16.4, and 1.4%, respectively. The SALGIB score had comparable performance with the Oakland score (AUC: 0.81 and 0.81, respectively; p = 0.631) and outperformed the GBS score (AUC: 0.81 and 0.76, respectively; p = 0.002) for predicting the presence of any adverse outcomes of ALGIB. All of the three scores had acceptable and comparable performance for in-hospital death but poor performance for hemostatic intervention. The Oakland score had the best performance for predicting severe bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: The Oakland and SALGIB scores had excellent and comparable performance and outperformed the GBS score for predicting adverse outcomes of ALGIB in Vietnamese.