Factors associated with parental intention to vaccinate their child against influenza, Finland, February to March, 2022: a web-based survey.

BackgroundInfluenza vaccination for children aged 6 months to 6 years is included in the national vaccination programme in Finland. Although all vaccines in the programme are free of charge, national coverage of influenza vaccination among children under 3 years and 3-6 years during 2020/21 was 43% and 35% respectively, with regional differences.AimTo assess factors underlying parental vaccination intention in order to increase influenza vaccine uptake among children.MethodsWe conducted a web-based survey among parents (n = 17,844) of randomly selected eligible children (aged 6 months-6 years) in February-March 2022 in five Finnish municipalities from regions of high and low coverage. Logistic regressions were used to determine associations between vaccination intention and e.g. sociodemographic factors, attitudes and knowledge. Linkage to the national vaccination register was used to confirm realisation of vaccination intention after the study.ResultsParticipation rate was 13% (n = 2,322 parents). Influenza knowledge, trust in official information, responding parent's education level, adherence to the vaccination programme, number of children and changes in attitudes towards vaccination since COVID-19 were all associated with intention to vaccinate. Vaccination intention for children was 64%, and realised vaccination 51%.ConclusionDespite the low participation rate, both vaccinated and unvaccinated children were represented. Influenza vaccine uptake is not dependent on a single factor. Our results identified the need for open dialogue between parents and healthcare professionals, as the lack of vaccine being offered by healthcare professionals was the most reported reason for not vaccinating.

High vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in the elderly in Finland before and after the emergence of Omicron.

BACKGROUND: The elderly are highly vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Waning immunity and emergence of Omicron have caused concerns about reduced effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The objective was to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe COVID-19 among the elderly. METHODS: This nationwide, register-based cohort analysis included all residents aged 70 years and over in Finland. The follow-up started on December 27, 2020, and ended on March 31, 2022. The outcomes of interest were COVID-19-related hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission timely associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE was estimated as one minus the hazard ratio comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated and taking into account time since vaccination. Omicron-specific VE was evaluated as the effectiveness observed since January 1, 2022. RESULTS: The cohort included 896,220 individuals. Comirnaty (BioNTech/Pfizer) VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization was 93% (95% CI 89-95%) and 85% (95% CI 82-87%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second dose; VE increased to 95% (95% CI 94-96%) 14-60 days after the third dose. VE of other homologous and heterologous three dose series was similar. Protection against severe COVID-19 requiring ICU treatment was even better. Since January 1, 2022, Comirnaty VE was 98% (95% CI 92-99%) and 92% (95% CI 87-95%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second and 98% (95% CI 95-99%) 14-60 days after the third dose. CONCLUSIONS: VE against severe COVID-19 is high among the elderly. It waned slightly after two doses, but a third restored the protection. VE against severe COVID-19 remained high even after the emergence of Omicron.

Social Distancing and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential Early in the Epidemic in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Information about social mixing patterns under heavy social distancing is needed to model the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We conducted a survey on daily person-to-person contacts during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Finland, one month after strong social distancing measures had been introduced nationwide. We defined a contact as exchange of at least a few words in proximity of another person. We also considered physical ("skin-to-skin") contacts separately. Based on 3,171 reported contacts by 1,320 participants of 1-79 years of age, we estimated age-stratified contact matrices essential in modeling virus transmission. RESULTS: Compared with contacts during prepandemic conditions, as learned from the Finnish part of the Polymod study, there was a 72% (95% credible interval, CI = 71, 74) reduction in the daily number of all contacts and a 69% (95% CI = 66, 73) reduction in the daily number of physical contacts in April 2020. The largest reduction, of almost 90%, occurred in physical contacts by individuals more than 70 years of age. The estimated reduction in the transmission potential of the virus attributable solely to reduced contact frequencies varied between 59% (whole population; physical contacts; 95% CI = 52, 68) and 77% (over 20-year olds; physical contacts; 95% CI = 70, 89). CONCLUSIONS: We surmise that the large reduction in the daily numbers of social contacts in the early part of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Finland was likely a major contributor to the steady decline of the epidemic in the country since early April.

Divergent coverage, frequency and costs of organised and opportunistic Pap testing in Finland.

We evaluated the overall coverage, frequency and costs of Pap testing by screening modality and health care provider in Finland. Information about Pap testing in the Finnish female population of 2.7 million was obtained from nationwide population-based registry data. Among women aged 25-69 years, 87% had had a Pap test taken within or outside the organised programme at least once during the last 5 years and half of those screened in the organised programme had also had at least one Pap test taken outside the programme. Of the annual average of 530,000 Pap tests taken, 84% were taken for screening purposes and 16% as follow-up. Forty percent of the 446,000 annual screening tests were taken in the organised programme, 55% as opportunistic tests in public primary or student health care or by private providers and 5% in public secondary health care. One-fifth of all opportunistic screening Pap tests were taken from women aged <25. The voluminous opportunistic Pap testing in public primary health care was concentrated in young women aged 25-29 whereas the bulk of opportunistic testing in private health occurred in age groups eligible for organised screening. The total cost of all screening Pap tests was €22.4 million, of which 71% incurred in opportunistic screening. Of the 84,000 annual follow-up Pap tests and their €8.3 million total costs, ∼60% incurred in organised screening or in secondary health care.

Factors associated with parental Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination intention of daughter: A national survey in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are offered free of charge in Finland to 10-12-year-old children. Nationally about 80% of girls are vaccinated, with regional differences in first dose coverage varying from 62% to 82% in girls born in 2011. This study examined the factors associated with HPV vaccination intention. Furthermore, we assessed the realisation of HPV vaccination among the daughters of the participating parents. METHODS: A web-based survey was conducted for randomly selected parents of girls (N = 6 465) aged 10 to 14 years of age. Data was collected in February and March 2022 in five Finnish high and low coverage municipalities. The national vaccination register was employed to assess realisation of vaccination. RESULTS: Participation rate was 13.7% (n = 883 parents). Almost all parents were aware of the association between HPV and cervical cancer, but only one fifth was aware of other diseases associated with HPV. Adherence to the national vaccination programme, parents' mother tongue, and trusting in official information were associated with positive vaccination intention. The most often reported reason for non-vaccination was fear of adverse effects (22%). Overall, parental attitudes towards HPV vaccination were positive, with 83% of parents indicating their daughter had received or will receive the vaccination. Vaccination realisation was subsequently examined and 88% of the daughters were vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite low knowledge of HPV-related diseases overall, majority of parents held a positive intention to vaccinate their daughter. Realisation of intention was high in our study, higher than the national uptake. Foreign-origin parents had lower intention to vaccinate their daughters. As information on HPV and its vaccine is available in 11 languages, there is a need to re-think accessibility. In-depth interviews are needed to better explore the reasons behind non-vaccination.

Hybrid Immunity Improves the Immune Response after the Fourth COVID-19 Vaccine Dose in Individuals with Medical Conditions Predisposing to Severe COVID-19.

Data on immune responses following COVID-19 booster vaccinations and subsequent infections in the immunocompromised are limited. We studied antibody responses after the fourth dose and subsequent infections to define patient groups benefiting most from boosters. Fourth vaccine (booster) doses were, in Finland, first recommended for severely immunocompromised individuals, whom we invited to participate in our study in 2022. We assessed spike protein-specific IgG and neutralizing antibodies (NAb) against the ancestral and Omicron BA.1 strains one month after the fourth dose from 488 adult participants and compared them to the levels of 35 healthy controls after three doses. We used Bayesian generalized linear modeling to assess factors explaining antibody levels and assessed vaccine-induced and hybrid immunity six months after the last vaccine dose. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and immunosuppressive therapy (IT) were identified as factors explaining sub-optimal antibody responses. The proportion of participants with a normal antibody response and NAbs was significantly lower regarding CKD patients compared to the controls. By the 6-month sampling point, one-third of the participants became infected (documented by serology and/or molecular tests), which notably enhanced antibody levels in most immunocompromised participants. Impaired antibody responses, especially NAbs against the Omicron lineage, suggest limited protection in individuals with CKD and highlight the need for alternative pharmaceutical preventive strategies. Vaccination strategies should take into account the development of robust hybrid immunity responses also among the immunocompromised.

Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The burden and costs of prevention and management of genital disease caused by HPV in women: a population-based registry study in Finland.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the total burden and health care provider costs of prevention, management and treatment of HP-related genital disease outcomes including all organized and opportunistic screening tests. Information about HPV-related disease outcomes in the Finnish female population of 2.7 million was obtained from nationwide population-based registry data. We estimated the incidence, health care resource use, health provider costs and life years lost due to cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer and intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, VaIN, VIN), cervical adenocarcinoma in situ, and external genital warts. The average annual disease burden of HPV-related genital disease in the female population of Finland comprises altogether 241 cases of cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer, 2,898 new cases of CIN, 34,432 cases of minor cytological abnormalities, and almost 4,000 cases of external genital warts. The total annual costs of screening, further diagnostics and treatment of HPV-related genital disease were € 44.7 million of which the annual costs due to cervical cancer screening were € 22.4 million and due to diagnostics, management and treatment of HPV-related genital disease outcomes were € 22.3 million. The latter included € 8.4 million due to minor cervical abnormalities detected by the current cervical screening practice. The extensive opportunistic Pap testing fails to keep the incidence of cervical cancer from increasing among women aged 30-34. In addition opportunistic screening among this and younger age group detects a significant number of cytological abnormalities, most of which are probably treated unnecessarily.

Efficacy and effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine during a growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.

Based on data collected as part of the contact tracing activity of the City of Helsinki Epidemiological Operations Unit, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness of isolating SARS-CoV-2 cases and quarantining their exposed contacts during a mildly growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland in autumn 2020. Based on the observed symptom-to-symptom intervals in 1016 pairs of primary and secondary cases, we estimated that without case isolation or quarantine 40[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] credible interval, CI 25-59) of transmission would have occurred on the day of or after symptom onset. One third of SARS-CoV-2 cases (N = 1521) had initially been quarantined, with a self-reported time until isolation (quarantine) of 0.8 days before symptom onset. This delay translates into an efficacy of 50[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] CI 40-63) of averting secondary infections per quarantined case. Due to later isolation (mean 2.6 days after symptoms), the efficacy was smaller (24[Formula: see text]; 90[Formula: see text] CI 12-41) in those two third of the cases (N = 3101) whose isolation was prompted by their symptoms, i.e. without being previously quarantined. At the population level, we evaluated the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine on the growth rate of the COVID-19 epidemic in the autumn of 2020. Under a wide range of underlying assumptions, the rate would have been at least 2 times higher without case isolation and quarantine. The numbers needed to isolate or quarantine to prevent one secondary case were 2 and 20, respectively.

Decline in varicella cases contacting primary health care after introduction of varicella vaccination in Finland - A population-based register study.

A two-dose varicella vaccination programme at the age of 18 months and 6 years started in September 2017 in Finland with catch-up vaccinations, based on earlier modelling results, for children <12 years (born in 2006 or later) with no history of varicella. Nationwide population-based register data were used to assess the age-specific vaccination coverage and the annual incidence rates of varicella cases contacting public primary health care in 2014-2020. Age-specific incidence rates after (2022) and before (2014-2016) the implementation of the vaccination programme was compared by incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95 % confidence interval. In 2019-2022, the first-dose coverage of varicella vaccination among children following the routine vaccination programme ranged from 85 to 87 % (children born in 2016 or later). The second-dose coverage was 58 % for the children born in 2016. The coverage of the catch-up vaccinations ranged from 18 % (children born in 2006) to 82 % (children born in 2015) for the first dose and from 10 % to 64 % for the second dose in the respective birth cohorts. In 2022, compared to the pre-vaccination period (2014-2016) the annual incidence rate of varicella cases contacting public primary health care declined in all age groups. The reduction ranged from 92 % to 98 % among the children eligible for the vaccinations (born 2006 or later). The 87 % reduction in the incidence rate among the unvaccinated children < 1 year suggests the indirect effect of the vaccinations. Introducing varicella vaccinations with catch-up was associated with rapid reduction in the varicella cases contacting primary health care in all ages. However, the coverage of the routine programme needs to be improved further as presently susceptibles accumulate and enable thus further outbreaks in coming decades.

Nationwide health, socio-economic and genetic predictors of COVID-19 vaccination status in Finland.

Understanding factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination can highlight issues in public health systems. Using machine learning, we considered the effects of 2,890 health, socio-economic and demographic factors in the entire Finnish population aged 30-80 and genome-wide information from 273,765 individuals. The strongest predictors of vaccination status were labour income and medication purchase history. Mental health conditions and having unvaccinated first-degree relatives were associated with reduced vaccination. A prediction model combining all predictors achieved good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.801; 95% confidence interval, 0.799-0.803). The 1% of individuals with the highest predicted risk of not vaccinating had an observed vaccination rate of 18.8%, compared with 90.3% in the study population. We identified eight genetic loci associated with vaccination uptake and derived a polygenic score, which was a weak predictor in an independent subset. Our results suggest that individuals at higher risk of suffering the worst consequences of COVID-19 are also less likely to vaccinate.

Health care costs related to hepatitis B in Finland are mostly due to chronic infections: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Finland is among the countries with low hepatitis B endemicity. We evaluate the hepatitis B-related disease and economic burden needed for evidence-based immunisation policy decision-making. METHODS: Hepatitis B-related cases in 2004-2012 were retrieved from population-based nationwide registers. We evaluated the incidence, health care resource use, health care costs, and life years lost due to hepatitis B-related outcomes. An episode of care was constructed from each individual's hepatitis B-related events retrieved from individually linkable registers. RESULTS: The mean health care costs per an acute hepatitis B case were €450 (SD 240), €2030 (SD 350), and €5400 (SD 3370) in those aged 0-14, 15-64, and ≥65 years, respectively. For chronic infection, the mean cost per case among Finnish-born individuals was €990 and among foreign-born €1360. The costs per case of liver cirrhosis were €15,350 and liver cancer €19,080. In addition, the annual antiviral medication costs per case receiving antiviral medication were €4710 to €5530. Annually <10% of the chronic and approximately 20% of liver cirrhosis cases received antiviral medication. We identified annually 21 acute, 264 chronic, three liver cirrhosis, and four liver cancer cases and 63.7 life years lost due to hepatitis B per 5.3 million inhabitants. The total annual health care costs were €1.2 million of which 60% were antiviral medication costs and 86% accounted for chronic hepatitis B. CONCLUSIONS: When planning prevention of hepatitis B infection, it is pivotal to notice that the overall disease and economic burden due to hepatitis B is mostly due to chronic infection.

Predictors of hospitalisation and death due to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland: A population-based register study with implications to vaccinations.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate how age and underlying medical conditions affect the risk of severe outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they should be weighed while prioritising vaccinations against COVID-19. METHODS: This population-based register study includes all SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test-positive cases until 24 Feb 2021, based on the Finnish National Infectious Diseases Register. The cases were linked to other registers to identify presence of predisposing factors and severe outcomes (hospitalisation, intensive care treatment, death). The odds of severe outcomes were compared in those with and without the pre-specified predisposing factors using logistic regression. Furthermore, population-based rates were compared between those with a given predisposing factor and those without any of the specified predisposing factors using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Age and various comorbidities were found to be predictors of severe COVID-19. Compared to 60-69-year-olds, the odds ratio (OR) of death was 7.1 for 70-79-year-olds, 26.7 for 80-89-year-olds, and 55.8 for ≥ 90-year-olds. Among the 20-69-year-olds, chronic renal disease (OR 9.4), malignant neoplasms (5.8), hematologic malignancy (5.6), chronic pulmonary disease (5.4), and cerebral palsy or other paralytic syndromes (4.6) were strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality; severe disorders of the immune system (8.0), organ or stem cell transplant (7.2), chronic renal disease (6.7), and diseases of myoneural junction and muscle (5.5) were strongly associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation. Type 2 diabetes and asthma, two very common comorbidities, were associated with all three outcomes, with ORs from 2.1 to 4.3. The population-based rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased with age. Taking the 60-69-year-olds as reference, the rate ratio was highest (3.0) for 20-29-year-olds and < 1 for 70-79-year-olds and 80-89-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities predispose for severe COVID-19 among younger ages. In vaccine prioritisation both the risk of infection and the risk of severe outcomes, if infected, should be considered.

Cohort study of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness among healthcare workers in Finland, December 2020 - October 2021.

Recently, Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness has decreased especially against mild disease due to emergence of the Delta variant and waning protection. In this register-based study among healthcare workers in Finland, the vaccine effectiveness of two-dose mRNA vaccine series against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 82% (95% CI 79-85%) 14-90 days after vaccination to 53% (43-62%) after 6 months. Similar trend was observed for other series. Waning was not observed against Covid-19 hospitalization. These results facilitate decision-making of booster doses for healthcare workers.

The indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination on healthcare workers' unvaccinated household members.

Mass vaccination is effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated individuals. However, it remains unclear how effectively COVID-19 vaccines prevent people from spreading the virus to their close contacts. Using nationwide administrative datasets on SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination records, demographics, and unique household IDs, we conducted an observational cohort study to estimate the direct and indirect effectiveness of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in reducing infections among vaccinated healthcare workers and their unvaccinated household members. Our estimates for adults imply indirect effectiveness of 39.1% (95% CI: -7.1% to 65.3%) two weeks and 39.0% (95% CI: 18.9% to 54.0%) eight weeks after the second dose. We find that the indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines within households is smaller for unvaccinated children than for adults and statistically insignificant. Here, we show that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections not only among vaccinated individuals but also among unvaccinated adult household members in a real-world setting.

Effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19 hospitalisation among Finnish elderly and chronically ill-An interim analysis of a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Finland, both mRNA and adenovirus vector (AdV) Covid-19 vaccines have been used after the vaccination campaign started on December 27, 2020. Vaccination of the elderly and chronically ill was prioritized and the interval between doses set to 12 weeks. The objective of this interim analysis was to evaluate first and second dose vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a real-world setting. METHODS: During the first five months of the campaign, a register-based cohort study was conducted in the Finnish elderly aged 70+ years and those aged 16-69 years with medical conditions predisposing to severe Covid-19 (chronically ill). Using Cox regression, VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19 hospitalisation was estimated comparing the hazard in the vaccinated with that in the unvaccinated. RESULTS: The cohorts included 901092 elderly (89% vaccinated) and 774526 chronically ill (69% vaccinated) individuals. Three weeks after the first dose, mRNA VE against infection was 45% (95% confidence interval, 36-53%) and 40% (26-51%) in elderly and chronically ill; mRNA VE against hospitalisation was 63% (49-74%) and 82% (56-93%). In chronically ill, AdV VE was 42% (32-50) and 62% (42-75%) against infection and hospitalisation, respectively. One week after the second dose, mRNA VE against infection was 75% (65-82%) and 77% (65-85%) in elderly and chronically ill; mRNA VE against hospitalisation was 93% (70-98%) and 90% (29-99%). CONCLUSIONS: Covid-19 vaccines protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19 hospitalisation. A single dose provides moderate protection in elderly and chronically ill, although two doses are clearly superior.

Success ofrotavirus vaccination in Finland, a register based study measuring impact beyond overall effectiveness.

INTRODUCTION: Even with vaccines available since 2006, rotavirus continues to be a major cause of acute gastroenteritis globally in children under 5 years old. Finland introduced the rotavirus vaccine to its national vaccination programme in 2009. Since then hospitalizations due to gastroenteritis caused by rotavirus (RVGE) and of all causes (AGE) have been reduced significantly in young children. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of data from register databases consisting of over 200 000 children aged 0.5-2 years. Children born before rotavirus vaccines were available (2002, 2003) and after the implementation of rotavirus vaccination programme (2014, 2015) were followed for episodes of acute infectious gastroenteritis. We calculated the incidences of hospital outpatient and inpatient episodes and used individual vaccination records to estimate the overall, total, direct and indirect vaccine effect (VE %). RESULTS: Among children born in 2014 and 2015, there was a 96% reduction in inpatient RVGE episodes and a 78% reduction in episodes of inpatient AGE compared to the pre-vaccination era, comprising the overall VE. Direct effectiveness was 96% and 53% for RVGE and AGE respectively. Herd effect i.e. indirect protection was estimated to be 67% against inpatient RVGE and 56% against inpatient AGE. Protection acquired by the vaccinated children when compared to pre vaccination era i.e. the total VE was 99% for inpatient RVGE and 79% for inpatient AGE. CONCLUSIONS: Although overall incidences for every disease type studied were reduced, rotavirus is still circulating with seasonality and there is a slight shift of disease towards the older age groups. Together with changes observed in the distribution of rotavirus genotypes, our results indicate that continuous monitoring is still necessary.

Outbreaks of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in day care cohorts in Finland - implications for elimination of transmission.

BACKGROUND: Day care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. Exposure within families and within DCCs are the main risk factors for colonisation with pneumococcal serotypes in DCC attendees. METHODS: Transmission of serotype specific carriage was analysed with a continuous time event history model, based on longitudinal data from day care attendees and their family members. Rates of acquisition, conditional on exposure, were estimated in a Bayesian framework utilising latent processes of carriage. To ensure a correct level of exposure, non-participating day care attendees and their family members were included in the analysis. Posterior predictive simulations were used to quantify transmission patterns within day care cohorts, to estimate the basic reproduction number for pneumococcal carriage in a population of day care cohorts, and to assess the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage to eliminate pneumococcal transmission. RESULTS: The model, validated by posterior predictive sampling, was successful in capturing the strong temporal clustering of pneumococcal serotypes in the day care cohorts. In average 2.7 new outbreaks of pneumococcal carriage initiate in a day care cohort each month. While 39% of outbreaks were of size one, the mean outbreak size was 7.6 individuals and the mean length of an outbreak was 2.8 months. The role of families in creating and maintaining transmission was minimal, as only 10% of acquisitions in day care attendees were from family members. Considering a population of day care cohorts, a child-to-child basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.4 and the critical vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage as 0.3. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal transmission occurs in serotype specific outbreaks of carriage, driven by within-day-care transmission and between-serotype competition. An amplifying effect of the day care cohorts enhances the spread of pneumococcal serotypes within the population. The effect of vaccination, in addition to reducing susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage in the vaccinated, induces a herd effect, thus creating a counter-effect to the amplifying effect of the cohort. Consequently, the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage, required for elimination of transmission, is relatively low. Use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines is expected to induce a notable herd protection against pneumococcal disease.

Clustering of serotypes in a longitudinal study of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in three day care centres.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) causes a wide range of clinical manifestations that together constitute a major burden of disease worldwide. The main route of pneumococcal transmission is through asymptomatic colonisation of the nasopharynx. Studies of transmission are currently of general interest because of the impact of the new conjugate-polysaccharide vaccines on nasopharyngeal colonisation (carriage). Here we report the first longitudinal study of pneumococcal carriage that records serotype specific exposure to pneumococci simultaneously within the two most important mixing groups, families and day care facilities. METHODS: We followed attendees (N = 59) with their family members (N = 117) and the employees (N = 37) in three Finnish day care centres for 9 months with monthly sampling of nasopharyngeal carriage. Pneumococci were cultured, identified and serotyped by standard methods. RESULTS: Children in day care constitute a core group of pneumococcal carriage: of the 36 acquisitions of carriage with documented exposure to homologous pneumococci, the attendee had been exposed in her/his day care centre in 35 cases and in the family in 9 cases. Day care children introduce pneumococci to the family: 66% of acquisitions of a new serotype in a family were associated with simultaneous or previous carriage of the same type in the child attending day care. Consequently, pneumococcal transmission was found to take place as micro-epidemics driven by the day care centres. Each of the three day care centres was dominated by a serotype of its own, accounting for 100% of the isolates of that serotype among all samples from the day care attendees. CONCLUSION: The transmission of pneumococci is more intense within than across clusters defined by day care facilities. The ensuing micro-epidemic behaviour enhances pneumococcal transmission.

Epidemiology of hepatitis B infection in Finland: Implications for immunisation policy.

OBJECTIVES: We describe the current epidemiology of acute and chronic hepatitis B infections in Finland. We estimate the total incidence of chronic hepatitis B following from the current incidence of acute infections and the influx of chronic carriers of hepatitis B associated with net immigration. We evaluate the incidence of hepatitis B infections preventable by a universal vaccination programme among infants. METHODS: We analysed hepatitis B cases reported to the National Infectious Disease Register during 2004-2012 and used pre-developed methods to adjust for acute asymptomatic infections. We estimated the projected incidence of chronic infection by applying age-specific risks of chronic infection to the estimated incidence of acute infection. We estimated the influx of chronic carriers associated with immigration by utilising data on immigration during 2004-2012 and the WHO regional estimates of carriage prevalence. RESULTS: The estimated incidence of acute hepatitis B infection in Finland, adjusted for asymptomatic infections, was 1.67 per 100,000 per year (95% Crl 1.43-1.94) which is 4.2-fold to the register-based incidence. The estimated lifetime risks of acute and chronic hepatitis B infections were 0.13% and 0.01%, respectively. We estimated that annually seven new chronic infections would result from infections acquired in Finland. These new chronic infections accounted for 1.2% of the total incidence of chronic infections. We estimated that eventually three chronic infections per year would be potentially preventable by a universal infant vaccination programme. CONCLUSIONS: Partly due to the fact that hepatitis B infections in neonates and in children are rare, a very limited number of chronic hepatitis B infections resulted from infection acquired within the country. A vast majority of chronic hepatitis B infections occurred among foreign-born persons and were therefore not preventable by a universal infant immunisation programme in Finland. Even with a targeted immunisation programme, the incidence of hepatitis B infection has remained low.