Impact of donor ferritin testing on iron deficiency prevention and blood availability in France: A cohort simulation study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Implementing a ferritin testing policy for whole blood (WB) donors may prevent iron deficiency (ID, ferritin <26 ng/mL) and anaemia, but may induce donation losses. As part of a national prevention plan in France, we aimed to estimate its impact on ID, anaemias and WB donations among donors at high risk of ID. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A micro-simulation model was developed to evaluate different scenarios compared to the current situation without ferritin testing as a reference scenario. The following scenarios were simulated: a minimum scenario with a 6-month deferral for donors with absent iron store (AIS, ferritinemia <15 ng/ml), a main scenario with additional delayed invitations for donors with ferritinemia 15-25 ng/ml and a supplementation scenario with additional iron supplementation for 50% of the donors with AIS. RESULTS: In the main scenario, 52,699 WB donations per year were estimated to be lost after 1 year (-8%), falling to 27,687 (-4.7%) after 5 years. IDs and anaemias were reduced by 13.6% and 29.3%, respectively, after 1 year. The supplementation scenario increased the number of prevented IDs and anaemias to 24.1% and 35.4%, respectively, after 1 year, and halved the number of anaemias at 5 years. The latter scenario also had the least impact on the number of donations (-3.2% after 5 years). CONCLUSION: A ferritin testing policy resulting in delayed donations for ID donors is effective in reducing IDs and anaemias, but significantly impacts the number of donations, thereby posing a self-sufficiency challenge.

Understanding mortality in multiple myeloma: Findings of a European retrospective chart review.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide real-world data on the characteristics and treatment of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the time of death. METHODS: The study was a retrospective patient chart review across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK during 2016, and included patients who had died in the 3 months before the index date. RESULTS: Data from 786 patients were reviewed. At the time of death, 37% of patients were receiving active treatment, 12% were in a treatment-free interval and 51% were receiving only supportive care. Death before and during active first-line treatment was not uncommon (6% and 24% of patients, respectively) but these deaths were often not solely due to disease progression; factors such as renal failure and infection frequently played a role (in 30% and 20% of patients at first-line, respectively). Most deaths at later lines were due to progressive disease. Cox model results suggested that early deaths were associated with advanced disease stage, high-risk cytogenetics and poor response and relapse profiles. CONCLUSIONS: These real-world data could be used to help develop strategies for improving survival in patients with MM and to support management tailored to the stage of disease.

Main barriers to effective implementation of stroke care pathways in France: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke Care Pathways (SCPs) aim to improve quality of care by providing better access to stroke units, rehabilitation centres, and home care for dependent patients. The objective of this study was to identify the main barriers to effective implementation of SCPs in France. METHODS: We selected 4 types of SCPs currently implemented in France that differed in terms of geographical location, population size, socio-economic conditions, and available health care facilities. We carried out 51 semi-structured interviews of 44 key health professionals involved in these SCPs and used the interview data to (i) create a typology of the organisational barriers to effective SCP implementation by axial coding, (ii) define barrier contents by vertical coding. The typology was validated by a panel of 15 stroke care professionals. RESULTS: Four main barriers to effective SCP implementation were identified: lack of resources (31/44 interviewees), coordination problems among staff (14/44) and among facilities (27/44), suboptimal professional and organisational practices (16/44), and inadequate public education about stroke (13/44). Transposition of the findings onto a generic SCP highlighted alternative care options and identified 10 to 17 barriers that could disrupt continuity of care. CONCLUSION: Lack of resources was considered to be the chief obstacle to effective SCP implementation. However, the main weakness of existing SCPs was poor communication and cooperation among health professionals and among facilities. We intend to use this knowledge to construct a robust set of quality indicators for use in SCP quality improvement initiatives, in comparisons between SCPs, and in the assessment of the effective implementation of clinical practice guidelines.

A budget impact analysis of a digital monitoring solution in patients treated with oral anticancer agents: a medico-economic analysis of the randomized phase 3 CAPRI trial.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Remote patient monitoring (RPM) has demonstrated numerous benefits in cancer care, including improved quality of life, overall survival, and reduced medical resource use. This study presents a budget impact analysis of a nurse navigator-led RPM program, based on the CAPRI trial, from the perspective of the French national health insurance (NHI). The study aimed to assess the impact of the program on medical resource utilization and costs. METHODS: Medical resource utilization data were collected from both medico-administrative sources and patient-reported questionnaires. Costs were calculated by applying unit costs to resource utilization and estimating the average monthly cost per patient. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore different perspectives and varying resource consumption. RESULTS: The analysis included 559 cancer patients participating in the CAPRI program. From the NHI perspective, the program resulted in average savings of €377 per patient over the 4.58-month follow-up period, mainly due to reduced hospitalizations. The all-payers perspective yielded even greater savings of €504 per patient. Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the findings. CONCLUSION: The budget impact analysis demonstrated that the CAPRI RPM program was associated with cost savings from the perspective of the NHI. The program's positive impact on reducing hospitalizations outweighed the additional costs associated with remote monitoring. These findings highlight the potential economic benefits of implementing RPM programs in cancer care. Further research is warranted to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness and scalability of such programs in the real-world settings.

Cost-Effectiveness of Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine for Adults over 65 in France.

BACKGROUND: In France, influenza accounts for an average of over one million consultations with GPs, 20,000 hospitalizations, and 9000 deaths per year, particularly among the over-65s. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) compared to standard (SD-QIV) and high-dose (HD-QIV) quadrivalent influenza vaccines for individuals aged 65 and older in France. METHODS: The age-structured SEIR transmission model, calibrated to simulate a mean influenza season, incorporates a contact matrix to estimate intergroup contact rates. Epidemiological, economic, and utility outcomes are evaluated. Vaccine effectiveness and costs are derived from literature and national insurance data. Quality of life adjustments for influenza attack rates and hospitalizations are applied. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses are also conducted. RESULTS: Compared to SD-QIV, aQIV demonstrates substantial reductions in healthcare utilization and mortality, avoiding 89,485 GP consultations, 2144 hospitalizations, and preventing 1611 deaths. Despite an investment of EUR 110 million, aQIV yields a net saving of EUR 14 million in healthcare spending. Compared to HD-QIV, aQIV saves 62 million euros on vaccination costs. Cost-effectiveness analysis reveals an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 7062 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the cost-effectiveness of aQIV versus SD-QIV and HD-QIV, preventing influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Adjuvant Nivolumab for Patients with Resected Esophageal Cancer or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer in France.

INTRODUCTION: Esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer (EC/GEJC) is a poor prognosis disease with a high risk of recurrence even in patients curatively resected. Adjuvant nivolumab is currently used for patients with completely resected (R0) EC/GEJC who have residual pathologic disease following prior neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to determine the cost effectiveness of nivolumab in this indication in France according to the collective perspective excluding indirect costs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A simplified four-health-state semi-Markov model was developed to model EC/GEJC patients who have residual disease after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by R0 over a 15-year time horizon, comparing adjuvant nivolumab versus surveillance, which was the recommended French clinical practice before immunotherapy arrival. Time-to-recurrence (TTR) from CheckMate 577 was used to inform transition from disease-free to post-recurrence health state; patients who recurred were split according to the distribution of type of recurrence observed during the trial. Post-recurrence survival (PRS) according to the type of recurrence was derived from a real-world registry. RESULTS: Adjuvant treatment with nivolumab led to an incremental survival gain of 1.19 years (+ 34%), mostly in the disease-free state, an incremental cost of €48,634 and QALY of 0.98 resulting in an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of €49,572/QALY with limited uncertainty. 'Cure assumption' at 5 years had an important impact on the results (€41,115/QALY; - 17%), as that tends to increase life-years and QALYs while costs remain the same. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed reference ICUR (€52,542/QALY) with 80% probability of nivolumab being cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €75,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that adjuvant nivolumab is cost effective in the treatment of EC/GEJC patients who have residual disease after neoadjuvant CRT followed by R0 resection. Compared with previously evaluated cost-effectiveness analyses for other immune-checkpoint inhibitors indicated in metastatic settings, ICUR appears particularly low in this early setting thanks to the important impact on health outcomes and capped treatment duration.

The burden of liver disease in Europe: a review of available epidemiological data.

To survey the burden of liver disease in Europe and its causes 260 epidemiological studies published in the last five years were reviewed. The incidence and prevalence of cirrhosis and primary liver cancer are key to understand the burden of liver disease. They represent the end-stage of liver pathology and thus are indicative of the associated mortality. About 0.1% of Hungarian males will die of cirrhosis every year compared with 0.001% of Greek females. WHO estimate that liver cancer is responsible for around 47,000 deaths per year in the EU. Harmful alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis B and C and metabolic syndromes related to overweight and obesity are the leading causes of cirrhosis and primary liver cancer in Europe. Chronic hepatitis B affects 0.5-0.7% of the European population. In the last decade the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C was 0.13-3.26%. It is of great concern that about 90% of people in Europe infected by viral hepatitis are unaware of their status. Available data suggest the prevalence rate of NAFLD is 2-44% in the general European population (including obese children) and 42.6-69.5% in people with type 2 diabetes. Each of these four major causes of liver disease is amenable to prevention and treatment, reducing the burden of liver disease in Europe and saving lives. Further surveys are urgently needed to implement cost-effective prevention programmes and novel treatments to tackle this problem.

The role of calling EMS versus using private transportation in improving the management of stroke in France.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the time from symptom onset to brain imaging between patients calling emergency medical services (EMS) and those using private means for transportation. METHODS: We focused on symptom onset-to-brain imaging times of ≤2 hours and ≤3 hours 30 minutes, assuming a one-hour interval between imaging and thrombolysis. Other variables were the patient's age, gender, stroke type, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, presence of an on-site stroke unit, and period of symptom onset. Univariate analyses and a hierarchical linear regression model were used, as appropriate, and adjusted for these variables. RESULTS: A total of 1,105 stroke patients (28%) were included in the analyses, 40.6% of them transported by EMS. Patients using EMS were significantly older (72.8 vs. 70.5 years; p = 0.008), they had a higher NIHSS score (8 vs. 6.1; p = 0.0001), fewer were ischemic (85.1% vs. 90.6%; p = 0.005), and more of them reached hospitals with an on-site stroke unit (81.3% vs. 72.9%; p = 0.002). For the EMS-call patients, the median symptom onset-to-brain imaging time was significantly shorter (3 hours 21 minutes vs. 5 hours 57 minutes), and after adjustment, maximum delays of 2 hours and 3 hours 30 minutes were independently associated with EMS call: 28% vs. 18% (p = 0.015) and 66% vs. 45% (p < 0.0001) of patients, respectively, leading to an adjusted odds ratio of 2.77 (95% confidence interval, 2.007-3.828; p < 0.0001) for the threshold of 3 hours 30 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: The symptom onset-to-brain imaging time was significantly shorter in case of EMS transportation, but most patients did not reach the hospital in time to be eligible for thrombolysis. Efforts are still needed to reduce delays, especially public education and EMS activation. These efforts should be combined with new approaches for the quality management of stroke patients.

Prognostic models for short-term annual risk of severe complications and mortality in patients living with type 2 diabetes using a national medical claim database.

OBJECTIVE: Prognostic models in patients living with diabetes allow physicians to estimate individual risk based on medical records and biological results. Clinical risk factors are not always all available to evaluate these models so that they may be complemented with models from claims databases. The objective of this study was to develop, validate and compare models predicting the annual risk of severe complications and mortality in patients living with type 2 diabetes (T2D) from a national claims data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Adult patients with T2D were identified in a national medical claims database through their history of treatments or hospitalizations. Prognostic models were developed using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF) and neural network (NN) to predict annual risk of outcome: severe cardiovascular (CV) complications, other severe T2D-related complications, and all-cause mortality. Risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, the adjusted Diabetes Severity and Comorbidity Index (aDSCI) and diabetes medications. Model performance was assessed using discrimination (C-statistics), balanced accuracy, sensibility and specificity. RESULTS: A total of 22,708 patients with T2D were identified, with mean age of 68 years and average duration of T2D of 9.7 years. Age, aDSCI, disease duration, diabetes medications and chronic cardiovascular disease were the most important predictors for all outcomes. Discrimination with C-statistic ranged from 0.715 to 0.786 for severe CV complications, from 0.670 to 0.847 for other severe complications and from 0.814 to 0.860 for all-cause mortality, with RF having consistently the highest discrimination. CONCLUSION: The proposed models reliably predict severe complications and mortality in patients with T2D, without requiring medical records or biological measures. These predictions could be used by payers to alert primary care providers and high-risk patients living with T2D.

Remdesivir and dexamethasone as tools to relieve hospital care systems stressed by COVID-19: A modelling study on bed resources and budget impact.

Remdesivir and dexamethasone are the only drugs providing reductions in the lengths of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients. We assessed the impacts of remdesivir on hospital-bed resources and budgets affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. A stochastic agent-based model was combined with epidemiological data available on the COVID-19 outbreak in France and data from two randomized control trials. Strategies involving treating with remdesivir only patients with low-flow oxygen and patients with low-flow and high-flow oxygen were examined. Treating all eligible low-flow oxygen patients during the entirety of the second wave would have decreased hospital-bed occupancy in conventional wards by 4% [2%; 7%] and intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy by 9% [6%; 13%]. Extending remdesivir use to high-flow-oxygen patients would have amplified reductions in ICU-bed occupancy by up to 14% [18%; 11%]. A minimum remdesivir uptake of 20% was required to observe decreases in bed occupancy. Dexamethasone had effects of similar amplitude. Depending on the treatment strategy, using remdesivir would, in most cases, generate savings (up to 722€) or at least be cost neutral (an extra cost of 34€). Treating eligible patients could significantly limit the saturation of hospital capacities, particularly in ICUs. The generated savings would exceed the costs of medications.

Machine learning versus regression modelling in predicting individual healthcare costs from a representative sample of the nationwide claims database in France.

BACKGROUND: Innovative provider payment methods that avoid adverse selection and reward performance require accurate prediction of healthcare costs based on individual risk adjustment. Our objective was to compare the performances of a simple neural network (NN) and random forest (RF) to a generalized linear model (GLM) for the prediction of medical cost at the individual level. METHODS: A 1/97 representative sample of the French National Health Data Information System was used. Predictors selected were: demographic information; pre-existing conditions, Charlson comorbidity index; healthcare service use and costs. Predictive performances of each model were compared through individual-level (adjusted R-squared (adj-R2), mean absolute error (MAE) and hit ratio (HiR)), and distribution-level metrics on different sets of covariates in the general population and by pre-existing morbid condition, using a quasi-Monte Carlo design. RESULTS: We included 510,182 subjects alive on 31st December, 2015. Mean annual costs were 1894€ (standard deviation 9326€) (median 393€, IQ range 95€; 1480€), including zero-claim subjects. All models performed similarly after adjustment on demographics. RF model had better performances on other sets of covariates (pre-existing conditions, resource counts and past year costs). On full model, RF reached an adj-R2 of 47.5%, a MAE of 1338€ and a HiR of 67%, while GLM and NN had an adj-R2 of 34.7% and 31.6%, a MAE of 1635€ and 1660€, and a HiR of 58% and 55 M, respectively. RF model outperformed GLM and NN for most conditions and for high-cost subjects. CONCLUSIONS: RF should be preferred when the objective is to best predict medical costs. When the objective is to understand the contribution of predictors, GLM was well suited with demographics, conditions and base year cost.

Evaluation of the PRADO home discharge support programme for orthopaedic surgery in 2018.

BACKGROUND: Between 2015 and 2017, nearly 80,000 hospital stays in orthopaedic surgery were entered into a home discharge support programme (PRADO) offered by the statutory health insurance system. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the PRADO programme on enrolled stays in orthopaedic surgery over the last three years. HYPOTHESIS: The home discharge support programme used in orthopaedic surgery shortens hospital stays and decreases the rate of readmission within 30days. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The home discharge support programme PRADO was evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively. The quantitative study used a multicentre retrospective cohort design with matching to controls identified in the national healthcare database. All hospital stays entered into the home discharge support programme between January 2015 and December 2017 were enrolled in the study. Follow-up was 6months after discharge. The main outcome measure was the rate of readmission within 30days after discharge. The secondary outcome measures were emergency department visits, admission to rehabilitation, mean stay duration, visits to recommended healthcare professionals, medication consumption, and total healthcare expenditure at 6months. The statistical analysis used the per protocol approach. The qualitative study involved semi-structured individual and group interviews designed to investigate adhesion of the professionals and their perceptions of programme implementation, funding, and costs. RESULTS: Of 82,202 stays in the programme, 71,761 (87%) were matched and included in the analysis. Characteristics were comparable between the programme stays and the control stays. The programme stays had a significant reduction in the number of all-cause ambulatory and non-ambulatory readmissions (4.5% vs. 4.9%, p<0.0001 and 3.9% vs. 4.2%, p=0.0009, respectively). Emergency department visits and rehabilitation admissions within 30days were significantly less common in the programme group than in the control group (mean values, 2.1% vs. 2.3%, p=0.01 and 3.4% vs. 8.4%, p≤0.0001, respectively). Mean stay length was not significantly different between the two groups. Visits to recommended healthcare professionals occurred significantly more often and earlier in the programme group. The delivery of analgesics and heparin was significantly higher in the programme group, whereas no difference occurred in the delivery of antibiotics. Mean total health expenditures at 6months were lower in the programme group (2248 € vs. 2485 €). The success of the PRADO programme was dependent on leadership from the medical staff within the institution and on assistance provided by the hospital throughout its implementation. The criteria for patient eligibility to the programme were not routinely shared by or clear to the healthcare staff. DISCUSSION: The PRADO programme effectively improves the care of orthopaedic surgery patients and raises the issue of whether some admissions to rehabilitation may be unnecessary. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III; comparative retrospective study.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative colorectal cancer screening strategies in high-risk individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current guidelines recommend colonoscopy every 3-5 years for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening of individuals with a familial history of CRC. The objective of this study was to compare the cost effectiveness of screening alternatives in this population. METHODS: Eight screening strategies were compared with no screening: fecal immunochemical test (FIT), Stool DNA and blood-based screening every 2 years, colonoscopy, computed tomography colonography, colon capsules, and sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, and colonoscopy at 45 years followed, if negative, by FIT every 2 years. Screening test and procedures performance were obtained from the literature. A microsimulation model reproducing the natural history of CRC was used to estimate the cost (€2018) and effectiveness [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] of each strategy. A lifetime horizon was used. Costs and effectiveness were discounted at 3.5% annually. RESULTS: Compared with no screening, colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy at a 30% uptake were the most effective strategy (46.3 and 43.9 QALY/1000). FIT at a 30 µg/g threshold with 30% uptake was only half as effective (25.7 QALY). Colonoscopy was associated with a cost of €484,000 per 1000 individuals whereas sigmoidoscopy and FIT were associated with much lower costs (€123,610 and €66,860). Incremental cost-effectiveness rate for FIT and sigmoidoscopy were €2600/QALY (versus no screening) and €3100/QALY (versus FIT), respectively, whereas it was €150,000/QALY for colonoscopy (versus sigmoidoscopy). With a lower threshold (10 µg/g) and a higher uptake of 45%, FIT was more effective and less costly than colonoscopy at a 30% uptake and was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €4240/QALY versus no screening. CONCLUSION: At 30% uptake, current screening is the most effective screening strategy for high-risk individuals but is associated with a high ICER. Sigmoidoscopy and FIT at lower thresholds (10 µg/g) and a higher uptake should be given consideration as cost-effective alternatives. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening strategies in high-risk individuals Fecal occult blood testing with an immunochemical test (FIT) is generally considered as the most cost-effective alternative in colorectal cancer screening programs for average risk individuals without family history.Current screening guidelines for high-risk individuals with familial history recommend colonoscopy every 3-5 years.Colonoscopy every 3-5 years for individuals with familial history is the most effective strategy but is associated with a high incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.Compared with colonoscopy, if screening based on FIT is associated with a higher participation rate, it can achieve a similar effectiveness at a lower cost.

Epidemiology and disease burden of sickle cell disease in France: A descriptive study based on a French nationwide claim database.

CONTEXT: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a severe hematological disorder. The most common acute complication of SCD is vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC), but SCD is a systemic disease potentially involving all organs. SCD prevalence estimates rely mostly on extrapolations from incidence-based newborn screening programs, although recent improvements in survival may have led to an increase in prevalence, and immigration could account for a substantial number of prevalent patients in Europe. The primary objective of this study was to estimate SCD prevalence in France. METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted using a representative sample of national health insurance data. SCD patients followed up in France between 2006 and 2011 were captured through hydroxyurea reimbursement and with the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) SCD specific code D570.1.2, excluding code D573 (which corresponds to sickle cell trait (SCT)). Nevertheless, we assumed that ICD-10 diagnosis coding for inpatient stays could be imperfect, with the possibility of SCT being miscoded as SCD. Therefore, prevalence was analyzed in two groups of patients [with at least one (G1) or two (G2) inpatient stay] based on the number of SCD-related inpatient stays in the six-year study period, assuming that SCT patients are rarely rehospitalized compared to SCD. The prevalence of SCD in the sample, which was considered to be representative of the French population, was then extrapolated to the general population. The rate of vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC) events was estimated based on hospitalizations, emergencies, opioid reimbursements, transfusions, and sick leave. RESULTS: Based on the number of patients identified for G1 and G2, the 2016 French prevalence was estimated to be between 48.6 per 100,000 (G1) or 32,400 patients and 29.7 per 100,000 (G2) or 19,800 patients. An average of 1.51 VOC events per year were identified, with an increase frequency of 15 to 24 years of age. The average annual number of hospitalizations was between 0.70 (G1) and 1.11 (G2) per patient. Intensive care was observed in 7.6% of VOC-related hospitalizations. Fewer than 34% of SCD patients in our sample received hydroxyurea at any point in their follow-up. The annual average cost of SCD care is €5,528.70 (G1) to €6,643.80 (G2), with most costs arising from hospitalization and lab testing. CONCLUSION: Our study estimates SCD prevalence in France at between 19,800 and 32,400 patients in 2016, higher than previously published. This study highlights the significant disease burden associated with vaso-occlusive events.

Suitability of three indicators measuring the quality of coordination within hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Coordination within hospitals is a major attribute of medical care and influences quality of care. This study tested the validity of 3 indicators covering two key aspects of coordination: the transfer of written information between professionals (medical record content, radiology exam order) and the holding of multidisciplinary team meetings during treatment planning. METHODS: The study was supervised by the French health authorities (COMPAQH project). Data for the three indicators were collected in a panel of 30 to 60 volunteer hospitals by 6 Clinical Research Assistants. The metrological qualities of the indicators were assessed: (i) Feasibility was assessed using a grid of 19 potential problems, (ii) Inter-observer reliability was given by the kappa coefficient () and internal consistency by Cronbach's alpha test, (iii) Discriminatory power was given by an analysis of inter-hospital variability using the Gini coefficient as a measure of dispersion. RESULTS: Overall, 19281 data items were collected and analyzed. All three indicators presented acceptable feasibility and reliability (, 0.59 to 0.97) and showed wide differences among hospitals (Gini, 0.08 to 0.11), indicating that they are suitable for making comparisons among hospitals. CONCLUSION: This set of 3 indicators provides a proxy measurement of coordination. Further research on the indicators is needed to find out how they can generate a learning process. The medical record indicator has been included in the French national accreditation procedure for healthcare organisations. The two other indicators are currently being assessed for inclusion.

Facing the COVID-19 epidemic in NYC: a stochastic agent-based model of various intervention strategies.

Global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has created an unprecedented infectious disease crisis worldwide. Despite uncertainties about COVID-19, model-based forecasting of competing mitigation measures on its course is urgently needed to inform mitigation policy. We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City and evaluated the potential impact of quarantine duration (from 4 to 16 weeks), quarantine lifting type (1-step lifting for all individuals versus a 2-step lifting according to age), post-quarantine screening, and use of a hypothetical effective treatment against COVID-19 on the disease's cumulative incidence and mortality, and on ICU-bed occupancy. The source code of the model has been deposited in a public source code repository (GitHub®). The model calibrated well and variation of model parameter values had little impact on outcome estimates. While quarantine is efficient to contain the viral spread, it is unlikely to prevent a rebound of the epidemic once lifted. We projected that lifting quarantine in a single step for the full population would be unlikely to substantially lower the cumulative mortality, regardless of quarantine duration. By contrast, a two-step quarantine lifting according to age was associated with a substantially lower cumulative mortality and incidence, up to 71% and 23%, respectively, as well as lower ICU-bed occupancy. Although post-quarantine screening was associated with diminished epidemic rebound, this strategy may not prevent ICUs from being overcrowded. It may even become deleterious after a 2-step quarantine lifting according to age if the herd immunity effect does not had sufficient time to become established in the younger population when the quarantine is lifted for the older population. An effective treatment against COVID-19 would considerably reduce the consequences of the epidemic, even more so if ICU capacity is not exceeded.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative colon cancer screening strategies in the context of the French national screening program.

BACKGROUND: A nationwide colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program was set up in France from 2009 for average-risk, asymptomatic people aged 50-74 years based on an immunochemical fecal occult blood test [faecal immunochemical test (FIT)] every 2 years, followed by colonoscopy if positive. The European standard recommends a participation rate of 45% for the program to be cost-effective, yet the latest published rate in France was 34%. The objective of this study was to compare the cost effectiveness of screening alternatives taking real-world participation rates into account. METHODS: Eight screening strategies were compared, based either on a screening test (Guaiac or FIT testing, blood-based, stool DNA, computed tomography colonography, colon capsules, and sigmoidoscopy) followed by full colonoscopy if positive or direct colonoscopy. A microsimulation model was used to estimate the cost effectiveness associated with each strategy. RESULTS: Compared with no screening, FIT was associated with a 14.0 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) increase of €50,520 per 1000 individuals, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3600/QALY. Only stool DNA and blood-based testing were associated with a QALY increase compared with FIT, with stool DNA weakly dominated by blood-based testing, and the latter associated with an ICER of €154,600/QALY compared with FIT. All other strategies were dominated by FIT. CONCLUSION: FIT every 2 years appears to be the most cost-effective CRC screening strategy when taking into account a real-world participation rate of 34%.

Author Correction: A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France.

Many European countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing nationwide protection measures and lockdowns1. However, the epidemic could rebound when such measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a requirement for a second or more, repeated lockdowns2. Here, we present results of a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of post-lockdown measures, including physical distancing, mask-wearing and shielding individuals who are the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on cumulative disease incidence and mortality, and on intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy. While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if most people do not adhere to these measures, or if they are not maintained for a sufficiently long period.

Lockdown exit strategies and risk of a second epidemic peak: a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France.

Most European countries have responded to the COVID-19 threat by nationwide implementation of barrier measures and lockdown. However, assuming that population immunity will build up through the epidemic, it is likely to rebound once these measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a second or multiple repeated lockdowns. In this report, we present results of epidemiological modelling that has helped inform policy making in France. We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, and examined the potential impact of post-quarantine measures, including social distancing, mask-wearing, and shielding of the population the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on the disease's cumulative incidence and mortality, and on ICU-bed occupancy. The model calibrated well and variation of model parameter values had little impact on outcome estimates. While quarantine is effective in containing the viral spread, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound of the epidemic once lifted, regardless of its duration. Both social distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing the overwhelming of ICUs and a second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower cumulative incidence, mortality, and maintaining an adequate number of ICU beds to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if these measures were not applied by most people or not maintained for a sufficiently long period, as herd immunity progressively establishes in the less vulnerable population.