Multiplicative fitness, rapid haplotype discovery, and fitness decay explain evolution of human MHC.

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a central component of the vertebrate immune system and hence evolves in the regime of a host-pathogen evolutionary race. The MHC is associated with quantitative traits which directly affect fitness and are subject to selection pressure. The evolution of haplotypes at the MHC HLA (HLA) locus is generally thought to be governed by selection for increased diversity that is manifested in overdominance and/or negative frequency-dependent selection (FDS). However, recently, a model combining purifying selection on haplotypes and balancing selection on alleles has been proposed. We compare the predictions of several population dynamics models of haplotype frequency evolution to the distributions derived from 6.59-million-donor HLA typings from the National Marrow Donor Program registry. We show that models that combine a multiplicative fitness function, extremely high haplotype discovery rates, and exponential fitness decay over time produce the best fit to the data for most of the analyzed populations. In contrast, overdominance is not supported, and population substructure does not explain the observed haplotype frequencies. Furthermore, there is no evidence of negative FDS. Thus, multiplicative fitness, rapid haplotype discovery, and rapid fitness decay appear to be the major factors shaping the HLA haplotype frequency distribution in the human population.

Bw4 ligand and direct T-cell receptor binding induced selection on HLA A and B alleles.

Introduction: The HLA region is the hallmark of balancing selection, argued to be driven by the pressure to present a wide variety of viral epitopes. As such selection on the peptide-binding positions has been proposed to drive HLA population genetics. MHC molecules also directly binds to the T-Cell Receptor and killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR). Methods: We here combine the HLA allele frequencies in over six-million Hematopoietic Stem Cells (HSC) donors with a novel machine-learning-based method to predict allele frequency. Results: We show for the first time that allele frequency can be predicted from their sequences. This prediction yields a natural measure for selection. The strongest selection is affecting KIR binding regions, followed by the peptide-binding cleft. The selection from the direct interaction with the KIR and TCR is centered on positively charged residues (mainly Arginine), and some positions in the peptide-binding cleft are not associated with the allele frequency, especially Tyrosine residues. Discussion: These results suggest that the balancing selection for peptide presentation is combined with a positive selection for KIR and TCR binding.