Correction: Geospatial characteristics of measles transmission in China during 2005-2014.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005474.].

Geospatial characteristics of measles transmission in China during 2005-2014.

Measles is a highly contagious and severe disease. Despite mass vaccination, it remains a leading cause of death in children in developing regions, killing 114,900 globally in 2014. In 2006, China committed to eliminating measles by 2012; to this end, the country enhanced its mandatory vaccination programs and achieved vaccination rates reported above 95% by 2008. However, in spite of these efforts, during the last 3 years (2013-2015) China documented 27,695, 52,656, and 42,874 confirmed measles cases. How measles manages to spread in China-the world's largest population-in the mass vaccination era remains poorly understood. To address this conundrum and provide insights for future public health efforts, we analyze the geospatial pattern of measles transmission across China during 2005-2014. We map measles incidence and incidence rates for each of the 344 cities in mainland China, identify the key socioeconomic and demographic features associated with high disease burden, and identify transmission clusters based on the synchrony of outbreak cycles. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we identify 21 epidemic clusters, of which 12 were cross-regional. The cross-regional clusters included more underdeveloped cities with large numbers of emigrants than would be expected by chance (p = 0.011; bootstrap sampling), indicating that cities in these clusters were likely linked by internal worker migration in response to uneven economic development. In contrast, cities in regional clusters were more likely to have high rates of minorities and high natural growth rates than would be expected by chance (p = 0.074; bootstrap sampling). Our findings suggest that multiple highly connected foci of measles transmission coexist in China and that migrant workers likely facilitate the transmission of measles across regions. This complex connection renders eradication of measles challenging in China despite its high overall vaccination coverage. Future immunization programs should therefore target these transmission foci simultaneously.

Combined interventions for mitigation of an influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a physical training camp in Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVES: Many studies have suggested the effectiveness of single control measures in the containment and mitigation of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The effects of combined interventions by multiple control measures in reducing the impact of an influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a closed physical training camp in Beijing, China were evaluated. METHODS: Oseltamivir was prescribed for the treatment of confirmed cases and possible cases and as prophylaxis for all other participants in this training camp. Public health control measures were applied simultaneously, including the isolation of patients and possible cases, personal protection and hygiene, and social distancing measures. Symptom surveillance of all participants was initiated, and the actual attack rate was calculated. For comparison, the theoretical attack rate for this outbreak was projected using the Newton-Raphson numerical method. RESULTS: A total of 3256 persons were present at the physical training camp. During the outbreak, 405 (68.3%) possible cases and 26 (4.4%) confirmed cases were reported before the intervention and completed oseltamivir treatment; 162 (27.3%) possible cases were reported after the intervention and received part treatment and part prophylaxis. The other 2663 participants completed oseltamivir prophylaxis. Of the possible cases, 181 with fever ≥38.5°C were isolated. The actual attack rate for this outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was 18.2%, which is much lower than the theoretical attack rate of 80% projected. CONCLUSIONS: Combined interventions of large-scale antiviral ring prophylaxis and treatment and public health control measures could be applied to reduce the magnitude of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks in closed settings.

Rapid Increase in Scrub Typhus Incidence in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne disease, which has recently reemerged in China. In this study, we describe the distribution and incidence of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2014 and quantify differences in scrub typhus cases with respect to sex, age, and occupation. The results of our study indicate that the annual incidence of scrub typhus has increased during the study period. The number of cases peaked in 2014, which was 12.8 times greater than the number of cases reported in 2006. Most (77.97%) of the cases were reported in five provinces (Guangdong, Yunnan, Anhui, Fujian, and Shandong). Our study also demonstrates that the incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females compared to males (P < 0.001) and was highest in the 60-69 year age group, and that farmers had a higher incidence rate than nonfarmers (P < 0.001). Different seasonal trends were identified in the number of reported cases between the northern and southern provinces of China. These findings not only demonstrate that China has experienced a large increase in scrub typhus incidence, but also document an expansion in the geographic distribution throughout the country.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. METHOD: Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. RESULTS: During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

Peripheral blood mononuclear cell traffic plays a crucial role in mother-to-infant transmission of hepatitis B virus.

The role of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in HBV intrauterine infection is not fully defined. Particularly the origin of PBMCs in HBV-infected neonates remains to be addressed. We carried out a population-based nested case-control study by enrolling 312 HBsAg-positive mothers and their babies. PBMC HBV DNA as well as serum HBsAg and HBV DNA was tested in cohort entry samples. Totally, 45.5% (142/312) of the newborns were found to be infected with HBV in perinatal transmission. 119 mother-infant pairs were identified to be different in the genetic profile of maternal and fetal PBMCs by AS-PCR and hemi-nested PCR. Among them, 57.1% (68/119) of the maternal PBMCs in index cases were positive for HBV DNA while 83.8% (57/68) of the HBV DNA positive maternal PBMCs passed the placental barrier and entered the fetus. Furthermore, maternal PBMC HBV infection was significantly associated with newborn infants HBV infection. PBMC traffic from mother to fetus resulted in a 9.5-fold increased risk of HBV infection in PBMC HBV DNA positive newborn infants. These data indicate that maternal PBMCs infected with HBV contribute to HBV intrauterine infection of newborn infants via PBMC traffic from mother to fetus.

Spatiotemporal Clustering Analysis and Risk Assessments of Human Cutaneous Anthrax in China, 2005-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. METHODS: CA cases reported during 2005-2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS: The group of 30-39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. CONCLUSION: CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005-2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. METHODS: Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. RESULTS: A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005-2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Association between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic and climate factors in Heilongjiang Province, China.

The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate variation and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Heilongjiang Province, a highly endemic area for HFRS in China. Monthly notified HFRS cases and climatic data for 2001-2009 in Heilongjiang Province were collected. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, we found that relative humidity with a one-month lag (ß = -0.010, P = 0.003) and a three-month lag (ß = 0.008, P = 0.003), maximum temperature with a two-month lag (ß = 0.082, P = 0.028), and southern oscillation index with a two-month lag (ß = -0.048, P = 0.019) were significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Our study also showed that predicted values expected under the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were highly consistent with observed values (Adjusted R(2) = 83%, root mean squared error = 108). Thus, findings may help add to the knowledge gap of the role of climate factors in HFRS transmission in China and also assist national local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Japanese encephalitis in China, 2002-2010.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002-2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. METHODS: Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002-2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003-2005; 2006; and 2007-2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. RESULTS: JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. CONCLUSION: JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Association between the frequency of class II HLA antigens and the susceptibility to intrauterine infection of hepatitis B virus.

Multiple factors determine the susceptibility to intrauterine hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. These factors include the HBV structure, HBV mutation, HBV DNA level, placental barrier, the immune status of the mother, and the genetic make-ups of the newborn infants. Since HLA system is an integral component of the immune response, we hypothesized that the highly polymorphic HLA genes are the key determinants of intrauterine HBV infection. In this study, we selected newborn infants of HBsAg-positive mothers, and divided the infants into 2 groups: intrauterine infection group and non-intrauterine infection group according to the status whether or not they were infected at birth. Each infected infant was compared with 2 controls from the same birth cohort. HLA-DR allele typing was performed using a PCR-sequence specific primer (PCR-SSP) for 24 subjects with intrauterine infection and 48 controls without infection. We found that, among the fifteen (15) HLA-DR alleles assessed, HLA-DRB1*07 was the one, and the only one, significantly in excess (OR = 6.66, P = 0.004) in the intrauterine infection group compared to the non-intrauterine infection group. Our findings thus suggest that high frequency of HLA class II molecules, e.g. HLA-DRB1*07, is associated with the susceptibility of the infants to intrauterine HBV infection.