Consumption in Non-Pastoral Regions Drove Three-Quarters of Forage-Livestock Conflicts in China.

Forage-livestock conflict (FLC) is a major anthropogenic cause of rangeland degradation. It poses tremendous threats to the environment owing to its adverse impacts on carbon sequestration, water supply and regulation, and biodiversity conservation. Existing policy interventions focus on the in situ FLCs induced by local production activities but overlook the role of consumption activities in driving FLCs. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal variations in China's FLCs and the domestic final consumers at the county level by combining remote sensing data and multi-regional input-output model. Results show that during 2005-2015, China's pastoralism induced an average of 82 million tons of FLCs per year. Domestic final demand was responsible for 85-93% of the FLCs in China. There was spatiotemporal heterogeneity in domestic consumption driving China's FLCs. In particular, the final demand of non-pastoral regions was responsible for around three-quarters (74-79%) of the total FLCs throughout the decade. The rangeland-based livestock raising, agricultural and sideline product processing, and catering sectors are important demand-side drivers. These findings can support targeted demand-side strategies and interregional cooperation to reduce China's FLCs, thus mitigating rangeland degradation.

Spatial and Cross-Sectoral Transfer of Air Pollutant Emissions from the Fleet Electrification in China by 2030.

Fleet electrification shifts emission sources from the tailpipe to electricity generation and automotive supply chains subsequently, with emission transfer among regions. Such a spatial and cross-sectoral transfer of air pollutant emissions might embody uncertain environmental benefits spatially, which has not been comprehensively quantified, mainly due to the complexity of manufacturing processes of electric vehicle (EV) components (e.g., battery). We developed a hybrid life cycle assessment by combining inventory data of major processes and cross-sectoral input-output information and identified how China's EV deployment would influence the spatial redistribution of air pollutant emissions currently (2017) and in the future (2030). The results indicate that fleet electrification could readily reduce life cycle nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions by 12-93%, and the reductions are estimated to be concentrated in major cities and urban agglomerations. However, increased demand for electricity and power battery production could increase PM2.5 and SO2 emissions in 17-55% of grids under all the scenarios, which emerge in coal-rich (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Shanxi) and industrial (e.g., Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu) provinces. By tracing the upstream, 31-55% of vehicle-cycle emissions are from deep supply chains but exhibit diverse sources. It suggests the necessity to relieve emissions leakage of fleet electrification by synchronizing effective environmental management across multiple sectors through EV supply chains.

Multiperspective Decoupling Analyses between Global Embodied Carbon Chains and Global Value Chains.

Decoupling global economic growth from carbon emissions is essential for mitigating global climate change while maintaining continuous economic growth. Traditional production-side decoupling analysis alone is insufficient to capture the decoupling status between carbon emissions and the value added throughout global supply chains. This study investigates the decoupling status between value added and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during 1995-2019 from consumption and income perspectives. We find that the decoupling statuses of 17 regions (especially Russia, Australia, and Malta) show significant differences across multiple perspectives. For example, Malta's direct GHG emissions decreased with its GDP growth from a production perspective (i.e., achieved strong decoupling). However, its consumption-based GHG emissions increased with the growth of consumption-based value added (i.e., expansive negative decoupling). Moreover, most international pairs have not yet achieved strong decoupling from consumption and income perspectives. International multilateral cooperation is crucial for decoupling global GHG emissions from economic growth across global supply chains. This study provides insights into the decoupling between embodied GHG emissions and value added from consumption and income perspectives. The findings of this study can complement existing policies on global GHG emission mitigation and sustainable development.

Impacts of Trans-Provincial Thermal Power Transmission on Air-Quality Recovery and Related Health Outcomes in China.

Trans-provincial thermal power transmission has become an important measure for optimizing power allocation and alleviating the mismatch between regional power production and consumption in China, however, leading to inter-regional redistribution of air pollution. Here, we investigated the impacts of thermal power transmission on air-quality recovery and related health outcomes in China. The results showed that the redistribution of air pollutant emissions contributed to air-quality improvements and health benefits in the eastern regions but to the opposite side in the western regions. On a national scale, trans-provincial thermal power transmission contributed to a change in air quality from slightly polluted to good conditions for a period of 9 days under the standard of 75 µg m-3, accounting for 1.8% of the total number of polluted days in 4 months of 2017 and promoting air-quality recovery in China. Furthermore, the recovery totally reduced the number of premature deaths (exposed to fine particulate matter, PM2.5) by 2392 persons (95% confidence interval: 1495-3124) in 2017. Owing to thermal power retrofits and stable power transmission structure, transmission network expansion during the last decade has not brought significant changes in its impacts on air pollution. However, the environmental inequity caused by thermal power transmission stimulates further attention on coordinating regional interests in air pollution control through various production-side and consumption-side measures.

Cascading impacts of global metal mining on climate change and human health caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly disrupted global metal mining and associated supply chains. Here we analyse the cascading effects of the metal mining disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, climate change, and human health. We find that the pandemic reduced global metal mining by 10-20% in 2020. This reduction subsequently led to losses in global economic output of approximately 117 billion US dollars, reduced CO2 emissions by approximately 33 million tonnes (exceeding Hungary's emissions in 2015), and reduced human health damage by 78,192 disability-adjusted life years. In particular, copper and iron mining made the most significant contribution to these effects. China and rest-of-the-world America were the most affected. The cascading effects of the metal mining disruption associated with the pandemic on the economy, climate change, and human health should be simultaneously considered in designing green economic stimulus policies.

Role of Trade in India's Rising Atmospheric Mercury Emissions.

India is among the largest emitters of atmospheric mercury (Hg) in the world. India's production activities have associated Hg emissions which can be attributed to final demands (e.g., purchases by households, governments, and private investments) of nations driving upstream production from the demand perspective, or primary inputs (e.g., labor and capital supply) of nations enabling downstream production from the supply perspective. This study identifies key nations and sectors that directly and indirectly drove India's Hg emissions from both the demand and supply perspectives during 2004-2014. While domestic final demand was the dominant driver from the demand perspective (driving about 80-85% of the total), USA, China, and UAE are important foreign drivers. Similarly, from the supply perspective, domestic primary inputs were the dominant drivers. However, the share of foreign inputs enabling Hg emissions increased from 16 to 23% during the decade. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Australia, and China are the top foreign supply-side drivers. The Construction sector is an important demand-side driver, whereas fossil fuel sectors are important supply-side drivers. These findings can guide global and national policies for demand- and supply-side management of Hg emissions in India and assist in the successful implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Global Supply Chain Drivers of Agricultural Antibiotic Emissions in China.

Antibiotic pollution causes serious environmental and social issues. China is the largest antibiotic producer and user in the world, with a large share of antibiotics used in agriculture. This study quantified agricultural antibiotic emissions of mainland China in 2014 as well as critical drivers in global supply chains. Results show that China's agriculture discharged 4131 tons of antibiotics. Critical domestic supply chain drivers are mainly located in Central China, North China, and East China. Foreign final demand contributes 9% of agricultural antibiotic emissions in mainland China and leads to 5-40% of emissions in each province. Foreign primary inputs (e.g., labor and capital) contribute 5% of agricultural antibiotic emissions in mainland China and lead to 2-63% of emissions in each province. Critical international drivers include the final demand of the United States and Japan for foods and textile products, as well as the primary inputs of the oil seeds sector in Brazil. The results indicate the uniqueness of supply chain drivers for antibiotic emissions compared with other emissions. Our findings reveal supply chain hotspots for multiple-perspective policy decisions to control China's agricultural antibiotic emissions as well as for international cooperation.

Looping Mercury Cycle in Global Environmental-Economic System Modeling.

The Minamata Convention on Mercury calls for Hg control actions to protect the environment and human beings from the adverse impacts of Hg pollution. It aims at the entire life cycle of Hg. Existing studies on the Hg cycle in the global environmental-economic system have characterized the emission-to-impact pathway of Hg pollution. That is, Hg emissions/releases from the economic system can have adverse impacts on human health and ecosystems. However, current modeling of the Hg cycle is not fully looped. It ignores the feedback of Hg-related environmental impacts (including human health impacts and ecosystem impacts) to the economic system. This would impede the development of more comprehensive Hg control actions. By synthesizing recent information on Hg cycle modeling, this critical review found that Hg-related environmental impacts would have feedbacks to the economic system via the labor force and biodiversity loss. However, the interactions between Hg-related activities in the environmental and economic systems are not completely clear. The cascading effects of Hg-related environmental impacts to the economic system throughout global supply chains have not been revealed. Here, we emphasize the knowledge gaps and propose possible approaches for looping the Hg cycle in global environmental-economic system modeling. This progress is crucial for formulating more dynamic and flexible Hg control measures. It provides new perspectives for the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

The carbon emissions related to the land-use changes from 2000 to 2015 in Shenzhen, China: Implication for exploring low-carbon development in megacities.

Megacities exploit enormous amounts of lands from outside of the city boundary. However, there is a large knowledge gap in the impact of socioeconomic activities associated land-use changes on carbon emissions of megacities during the urbanization. In the current work, we combined the material-flow analysis, environmental extended input-output model, and land matrix data to construct a hybrid network framework. Such a framework was used to estimate the carbon emissions driving from trade between sectors and associated land use changes during 2000-2015 in Shenzhen, China. Results indicated that the total carbon emissions of Shenzhen had a growth rate of 262.7% from 2000 to 2010 and a declining rate of 17.6% from 2010 to 2015. This pattern is associated with large declining rates in the overall energy and carbon intensities by 53.8% and 63.2% during the period of 2000-2015. Meanwhile, embodied carbon emissions of Shenzhen kept rising by approximately twofold, accompanied by the increasing trends in the land-use related carbon emissions both inside and outside of city boundary. The land uses per unit GDP showed a dramatical decline by 85.7% and with a large contribution of the transportation and industrial land, and this caused a gradual increase in overall land-use related emissions with average growth rate of 7.1%. In addition, the land-use change related carbon emissions of the transportation and industrial land had a cumulative growth of 85%. As for the embodied land-use related carbon emissions, the dominated contributor was the Agriculture sector which drove an average of 0.13 MtC yr-1 emissions via importing agricultural products from outside of Shenzhen. This study provides a scientific foundation for corporately mitigate carbon emissions between megacities and their surrounding regions.

Motor deficits at presentation and predictors of overall survival in central nervous system lymphomas.

PURPOSE: Central nervous system lymphomas (CNSL) can present with motor and non-motor symptoms. In many central nervous system tumors, motor deficits are associated with significant morbidity and functional impairment, and correlate with worse prognosis. CNSLs however, often exhibit remarkable response to chemotherapy and radiotherapy with corresponding symptom improvement. We investigate the survival outcomes and trajectories of motor and functional recovery in a cohort of patients presenting with and without initial motor deficits. METHODS: Patients who underwent biopsy and with a histologically confirmed CNSL between 2008 and 2019 were retrospectively identified. Baseline demographic variables, comorbidities, presenting symptoms, histological type, neuroimaging features (location and number of lesions), and treatment administered (pre- and post-operative steroid use and chemotherapy regime) were recorded. Dates of death were obtained from the National Registry of Births and Deaths. Motor power and performance status at admission, 1 month and 6 months were determined. RESULTS: We identified 119 patients, of whom 34% presented with focal motor deficits. The median overall survival (OS) was 26.6 months. Those with focal motor deficits had longer OS (median 42.4 months) than those without (median 23.3 months; p = 0.047). In multivariate Cox analysis, age (HR 1.04 per year; p = 0.003), CCI (HR 1.31 per point; p < 0.001), leptomeningeal/ependymal involvement (HR 2.53; p = 0.016), thalamus involvement (HR 0.34; p = 0.019), neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (HR 1.06 per point; p = 0.034), positive HIV status (HR 5.31; p = 0.003), preoperative steroids use (HR 0.49; p = 0.018), postoperative high-dose steroids (HR 0.26; p < 0.001) and postoperative low-dose steroids (HR 0.28; p = 0.010) were significant predictors of OS. By one month, 43% of surviving patients had full power, increasing to 61% by six months. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of patients with initial motor deficits recovered in motor strength by six months. In our population, those presenting with motor deficits had paradoxically better overall survival.

Potential Role of Fiscal Decentralization on Interprovincial Differences in CO2 Emissions in China.

Spatial differences in CO2 emissions must be taken into account in CO2 mitigation. In this work, a spatial within-between logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition model was developed by using cluster analysis to evaluate the potential role of fiscal decentralization in driving interprovincial differences in CO2 emissions in China. The results revealed that the direct impact of fiscal decentralization emerged as a major emission driver after 2009. The differences of provincial CO2 emissions from the national average can be mainly attributed to emission differences between the distinct provincial clusters. The direct and indirect impacts of fiscal decentralization contributed to the shaping of differences in CO2 emission between provinces and their provincial cluster average, and between provincial cluster average and the national average. Reducing the differences in CO2 emission between distinct provincial clusters should be considered a breakthrough for the Chinese government. The provinces with CO2 emissions below the national average and above the average emissions of its provincial cluster still have the potential for further mitigation. Optimizing the expenditure authority of the central and provincial governments and improving the energy efficiency of the provincial fiscal expenditure are the two effective ways to further promote CO2 mitigation.

Planetary Boundaries for Forests and Their National Exceedance.

Achieving forest sustainability is a declared sustainable development goal (SDG 15). Measuring the safe operating space─planetary boundaries─of global forests is essential to determine global forest pressure and manage forests sustainably. Here, we quantify the forestry planetary boundary (FPB) and national forestry boundaries. Results show that, in 2015, the FPB was 7.1 billion m3 of forest stock increments. Global timber harvests account for 58.7% of the FPB. Timber harvests of 47 nations, mostly in Africa and Asia, have exceeded their national forestry boundaries. Their boundary-exceeding timber harvest is mainly driven by the final demand of developed nations (e.g., the United States and Japan) and emerging economies (e.g., India and China) through global supply chains. This study highlights the importance of the FPB in global forest management and trade-related policymaking. The findings can guide global and national forest harvesting activities and help promote international cooperation to mitigate global deforestation.

An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics.

Implementing an integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of water environments should include recognizing and eliminating warning signs based on future predictions. However, existing methodologies tend to ignore the warning methods already in place, and current studies fail to quantify water ecology issues adequately. To help solve these problems, the ecological footprint that involves water uses a procedural indicator system, which adopts an early warning methodology system approach. This reconstruction has devised definitions, recognizes hazards, states forecasts status, analyses signs, judges situations, distinguishes levels, and eliminates risks. Based on these procedures, a dynamic system model has been developed, comprising five subsystems with an overarching parent system. These subsystems are population, ecology, water resources, water environment, and water ecology. The simulation involves carrying rates for the water environment, water resource, water ecology, and the level of harmony between society and the environment. All these serve to describe the water environment carrying capacity, i.e., the upper limit of the capacity to supply resources, remove pollutants, and offer sustainable ecological services. To properly quantify the carrying capacity, the water environment carrying rate was assessed by a comprehensive analysis of the water environment, water resources, and water ecological carrying rate. The carrying rates were calculated as the ratios of currently existing pressure to the maximum pressure that can be born. When values are greater than 1, they indicate overload because the actual pressure is greater than the pressure they can bear. The degree of coordination between economy and environment was standardized to range between 0 and 1. The larger the value, the more harmonious the relationship. For this research, the North Canal basin, a basin consisting of several rivers flowing through Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in northern China and its surrounding areas, was chosen. The results showed that water environment and resource carrying rates would decline to 2.60 and 0.94, respectively, while the water ecology carrying rate would remain high at 10.98 by the year 2025. In addition, the degree of coordination would increase from 0.65 to 0.79. These statistics mean that the overload statuses will be high for a long time, although they are expected to ease gradually. Besides, the relationship between society and the environment would become more stable. Considering both the overload statuses and the relationship between society and the environment, the warning signs would not vanish. Based on predictions, the measures used were explained from three perspectives, i.e., alleviating pressures, enhancing carrying capacities, and finding a balance between society and the environment. Finally, the effects of the measures were estimated quantitatively.

CO2 Emissions Embodied in International Migration from 1995 to 2015.

While present international CO2 mitigation agreements account for the impact of population composition and structure on emissions, the impact of international migration is overlooked. This study quantifies the CO2 footprint of international immigrants and reveals their non-negligible impacts on global CO2 emissions. Results show that the CO2 footprint of international immigrants has increased from 1.8 gigatonnes (Gt) in 1995 to 2.9 Gt in 2015. In 2015, the U.S. had the largest total and per capita CO2 emissions caused by international immigrants. Oceania and the Middle East are highlighted for their large portions of immigrant-caused CO2 emissions in total CO2 emissions (around 20%). Changes in the population and structure of global migration have kept increasing global CO2 emissions during 1995-2015, while the reduction of CO2 emission intensity helped offset global CO2 emissions. The global CO2 mitigation targets must consider the effects of global migration. Moreover, demand-side measures need to focus on major immigrant influx nations.

Spatially Explicit Global Hotspots Driving China's Mercury Related Health Impacts.

Over 100 nations signed the Minamata Convention on Mercury to control the adverse effects of mercury (Hg) emissions on human beings. A spatially explicit analysis is needed to identify the specific sources and distribution of Hg-related health impacts. This study maps China's Hg-related health impacts and global supply chain drivers (i.e., global final consumers and primary suppliers) at a high spatial resolution. Here we show significant spatial heterogeneity in hotspots of China's Hg-related health impacts. Approximately 1% of the land area holds only 40% of the Chinese population but nearly 70% of the fatal heart attack deaths in China. Moreover, approximately 3% of the land area holds nearly 60% of the population but 70% of the intelligence quotient (IQ) decrements. The distribution of hotspots of China's Hg-related health impacts and global supply chain drivers are influenced by various factors including population, economy, transportation, resources, and dietary intake habits. These spatially explicit hotspots can support more effective policies in various stages of the global supply chains and more effective international cooperation to reduce Hg-related health impacts. This can facilitate the successful implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Spatial Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus in China.

Food, energy, and water resources, which are interconnected with one another, are essential to human beings and sustainable development goals. Existing studies have quantified direct interconnections of food, energy, and water (FEW) systems in China but overlooked their indirect and spatial interconnections through production systems of other products. Quantifying both the direct and indirect spatial interconnections of food, energy, and water systems is the basis of holistic FEW resource management. The spatial interconnections of the FEW systems within China's economic supply chains at the provincial level were quantified from both demand-driven and supply-push perspectives in this study. Results show that food and energy subsystems have tighter coupling relations than the other relationships in the FEW nexus from the demand perspective, and food and water subsystems have tighter coupling relations from the supply perspective. Findings of this study highlight the necessity of demand-side and supply-side measures by identifying critical final consumers and primary suppliers. For example, primary inputs of energy extraction sectors in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang are crucial for national water withdrawals. Sustainable management of FEW resources in China can be better achieved through strengthening the interdepartmental and interregional cooperation from both the demand and supply sides.

Rapid Increase in Cement-Related Mercury Emissions and Deposition in China during 2005-2015.

The cement industry has become the largest mercury (Hg) emission source in China. Better understanding Hg emission and deposition characteristics and drivers of Hg emission changes can increase the awareness of related risks and support effective policy making. The results show that due to the substantial increase in the use of new suspension preheater and precalciner (NSP) technology in China, an approximate two-fold increase from 80.0 to 144.0 Mg year-1 was observed for the cement-related Hg emissions during 2005-2015, which has resulted in a considerable increase in atmospheric deposition over terrestrial China from 37.9 to 75.9 Mg year-1. Compared to the great majority of emission sectors, the same increase in Hg emissions from cement production can cause more deposition due to the large share of highly water-soluble divalent Hg in the sector. Each 1% increase in the share of divalent Hg can result in an increase of 0.37 Mg year-1 in deposition over terrestrial China. Technical improvement and diversification of cement products are two major driving forces offsetting the economy-induced growth in cement-related Hg emissions during 2005-2015. Measures aimed at reducing the Hg emission intensity against the further increase in the use of NSP technology and avoiding overcapacity against the stimulation of real estate and increasing cement demands are urgently needed for the cement industry in China.

Toward low-carbon development: Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities.

Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities is a critical task for local governments formulating and implementing environmental policies. From the perspectives of carbon intensity and carbon inequality, this study develops an improved carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions-reduction index to quantify emissions-reduction pressure on 284 cities in China. Results indicate that driven by the decrease of overall carbon intensity and the rise of inter-city carbon inequality, emissions-reduction pressure on 41.38% of provinces and 49.65% of cities was greater than the overall national level; emissions-reduction pressure on 52.35% of cities exceeded the provincial average level. The central government determines national emissions-reduction pressure by adjusting carbon-inequality tolerance between cities and determines carbon-inequality preference based on population and economic output principles. These determinations become benchmarks for local governments' CO2 emissions-reduction pressure. Provinces and cities that exceed benchmarks become foci for promoting energy savings, emissions reduction, and low-carbon development in the future.

Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Interconnected Grids in China.

While direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's power sector from the generation side have been widely investigated, driving forces from the electricity consumption perspective and inter-regional electricity transmission have been overlooked to a large extent. This study quantified relative contributions of six factors to changes in GHG emissions from interconnected grids in China during 2008-2015. These six factors include three generation-side factors (i.e., fuel mix of thermal power generation, energy efficiency of thermal power generation, and electricity structure), two consumption-side factors (i.e., electricity efficiency of GDP and GDP), and electricity transmission structure. GDP growth and changes in fuel mix of thermal power generation are two major drivers of increased GHG emission during 2008-2015, especially for the North China Grid. In contrast, changes in electricity transmission structure (especially in East China Grid and Southern China Grid), the increase in electricity efficiency of GDP (except for Northwest China Grid), improvements in energy efficiency of thermal power generation (especially in North China Grid and Central China Grid), and changes in electricity structure (especially in Southern Power Grid) are major factors offsetting GHG emission increments. Findings of this study can provide multiple-perspective policy implications for GHG mitigation in China's power sector.

Quantifying the Urban Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The Case of the Detroit Metropolitan Area.

The efficient provision of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources to cities is challenging around the world. Because of the complex interdependence of urban FEW systems, changing components of one system may lead to ripple effects on other systems. However, the inputs, intersectoral flows, stocks, and outputs of these FEW resources from the perspective of an integrated urban FEW system have not been synthetically characterized. Therefore, a standardized and specific accounting method to describe this system is needed to sustainably manage these FEW resources. Using the Detroit Metropolitan Area (DMA) as a case, this study developed such an accounting method by using material and energy flow analysis to quantify this urban FEW nexus. Our results help identify key processes for improving FEW resource efficiencies of the DMA. These include (1) optimizing the dietary habits of households to improve phosphorus use efficiency, (2) improving effluent-disposal standards for nitrogen removal to reduce nitrogen emission levels, (3) promoting adequate fertilization, and (4) enhancing the maintenance of wastewater collection pipelines. With respect to water use, better efficiency of thermoelectric power plants can help reduce water withdrawals. The method used in this study lays the ground for future urban FEW analyses and modeling.