Reasons for hospitalisation and cumulative mortality in people, 75 years or older, at high risk of hospital admission: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: A small proportion of the older population accounts for a high proportion of healthcare use. For effective use of limited healthcare resources, it is important to identify the group with greatest needs. The aim of this study was to explore frequency and reason for hospitalisation and cumulative mortality, in an older population at predicted high risk of hospital admission, and to assess if a prediction model can be used to identify individuals with the greatest healthcare needs. Furthermore, discharge diagnoses were explored to investigate if they can be used as basis for specific interventions in the high-risk group. METHODS: All residents, 75 years or older, living in Östergötland, Sweden, on January 1st, 2017, were included. Healthcare data from 2016 was gathered and used by a validated prediction model to create risk scores for hospital admission. The population was then divided into groups by percentiles of risk. Using healthcare data from 2017-2018, two-year cumulative incidence of hospitalisation was analysed using Gray´s test. Cumulative mortality was analysed with the Kaplan-Meier method and primary discharge diagnoses were analysed with standardised residuals. RESULTS: Forty thousand six hundred eighteen individuals were identified (mean age 82 years, 57.8% women). The cumulative incidence of hospitalisation increased with increasing risk of hospital admission (24% for percentiles < 60 to 66% for percentiles 95-100). The cumulative mortality also increased with increasing risk (7% for percentiles < 60 to 43% for percentiles 95-100). The most frequent primary discharge diagnoses for the population were heart diseases, respiratory infections, and hip injuries. The incidence was significantly higher for heart diseases and respiratory infections and significantly lower for hip injuries, for the population with the highest risk of hospital admission (percentiles 85-100). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals 75 years or older, with high risk of hospital admission, were demonstrated to have considerable higher cumulative mortality as well as incidence of hospitalisation. The results support the use of the prediction model to direct resources towards individuals with highest risk scores, and thus, likely the greatest care needs. There were only small differences in discharge diagnoses between the risk groups, indicating that interventions to reduce hospitalisations should be personalised. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03180606, first posted 08/06/2017.

Cost-effectiveness of population screening for atrial fibrillation: the STROKESTOP study.

AIMS: Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) are based on assumptions of long-term clinical effects. The STROKESTOP study, which randomised 27 975 persons aged 75/76 years into a screening invitation group and a control group, has a median follow-up time of 6.9 years. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for AF using clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The analysis is based on a Markov cohort model. The prevalence of AF, the use of oral anticoagulation, clinical event data, and all-cause mortality were taken from the STROKESTOP study. The cost for clinical events, age-specific utilities, utility decrement due to stroke, and stroke death was taken from the literature. Uncertainty in the model was considered in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Per 1000 individuals invited to the screening, there were 77 gained life years and 65 gained quality-adjusted life years. The incremental cost was €1.77 million lower in the screening invitation group. Gained quality-adjusted life years to a lower cost means that the screening strategy was dominant. The result from 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations showed that the AF screening strategy was cost-effective in 99.2% and cost-saving in 92.7% of the simulations. In the base-case scenario, screening of 1000 individuals resulted in 10.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): -22.5 to 1.4] fewer strokes (8.4 ischaemic and 2.2 haemorrhagic strokes), 1.0 (95% CI: -1.9 to 4.1) more cases of systemic embolism, and 2.9 (95% CI: -18.2 to 13.1) fewer bleedings associated with hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Based on the STROKESTOP study, this analysis shows that a broad AF screening strategy in an elderly population is cost-effective. Efforts should be made to increase screening participation.

Prognostic Significance of Sentinel Lymph Node Status in Thick Primary Melanomas (> 4 mm).

BACKGROUND: The key prognostic factors for staging patients with primary cutaneous melanoma are Breslow thickness, ulceration, and sentinel lymph node (SLN) status. The multicenter selective lymphadenectomy trial (MSLT-I) verified SLN status as the most important prognostic factor for patients with intermediate-thickness melanoma (Breslow thickness, 1-4 mm). Although most international guidelines recommend SLN biopsy (SLNB) also for patients with thick (> 4 mm, pT4) melanomas, its prognostic role has been questioned. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether SLN status is prognostic in T4 melanoma tumors. METHODS: Data for all patients with a diagnosis of primary invasive cutaneous melanoma of Breslow thickness greater than 1 mm in Sweden between 2007 and 2020 were retrieved from the Swedish Melanoma Registry, a large prospective population-based registry. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for melanoma-specific survival (MSS) was constructed based on Breslow thickness stratified for SLN status. RESULTS: The study enrolled 10,491 patients, 1943 of whom had a Breslow thickness greater than 4 mm (pT4). A positive SLN was found for 34% of these pT4 patients. The 5-year MSS was 71%, and the 10-year MSS was 62%. There was a statistically significant difference in MSS between the patients with a positive SLN and those with a negative SLN (hazard ratio of 2.4 (95% confidence interval CI 1.6-3.5) for stage T4a and 2.0 (95% CI 1.6-2.5) for satage T4b. CONCLUSION: Sentinel lymph node status gives important prognostic information also for patients with thick (> 4 mm) melanomas, and the authors thus recommend that clinical guidelines be updated to reflect this.

Increasing melanoma incidence and survival trend shifts with improved melanoma-specific survival between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma-specific survival (MSS) is heterogenous between stages and is highly dependent on the T stage for primary localized disease. New systemic therapies for metastatic cutaneous melanoma (CM) have been introduced since 2012 in Sweden. OBJECTIVES: To analyse the incidence and MSS time trends between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden. METHODS: Nationwide, population-based and prospectively collected clinico-pathological data on invasive CM from the Swedish Melanoma Registry (SweMR) were analysed for survival trends between 1990 and 2020 using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: In total, 77 036 primary invasive CMs were diagnosed in 70 511 patients in Sweden between 1990 and 2020. The 5-year MSS [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88.9% (88.3-89.4) for 1990-2000, 89.2% (88.7-89.6) for 2001-2010 and 93.0% (92.7-93.9) for 2011-2020. The odds ratios for being diagnosed with nodular melanoma (vs. superficial spreading melanoma) was significantly reduced by 20% (2001-2010) and by 46% (2011-2020) vs. the reference period 1990-2000. Overall, the MSS improved over both diagnostic periods (2001-2010 and 2011-2020) vs. the reference period 1990-2000 among men and women, respectively [HRmen: 2001-2010: 0.89 (95% CI 0.82-0.96) and 2011-2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.67); HRwomen: 2001-2010: 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91) and 2011-2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.70)]. The risk of death from CM was significantly lower in all age groups for both men and women in the most recent diagnostic period (2011-2020 vs.1990-2000). CONCLUSIONS: The results emphasize the improved MSS among men and women in Sweden. The MSS improvements, specifically for the period 2011-2020, may be correlated to the introduction of new systemic therapies and are here shown for the first time in detail for Sweden.

Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is more cost-effective than open resection: results from a Swedish randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is being implemented worldwide. The aim of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis from a health care perspective. METHODS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on the randomized controlled trial LAPOP, where 60 patients were randomized to open or laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy. For the follow-up of two years, resource use from a health care perspective was recorded, and health-related quality of life was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L. The per-patient mean cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared using nonparametric bootstrapping. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients were included in the analysis. The mean health care costs were lower, €3863 (95% CI: -€8020 to €385), for the laparoscopic group. Postoperative quality of life improved with laparoscopic resection and resulted in a gain in QALYs of 0.08 (95% CI: -0.09 to 0.25). The laparoscopic group had lower costs and improved QALYs in 79% of bootstrap samples. With a cost-per-QALY threshold of €50 000, 95.4% of the bootstrap samples were in favour of laparoscopic resection. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is associated with numerically lower health care costs and improvements in QALYs compared with the open approach. The results support the ongoing transition from open to laparoscopic distal pancreatectomies.

Short- and long-term effect of high versus low-to-moderate intensity exercise to optimise health-related quality of life after oncological treatment-results from the Phys-Can project.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of high intensity (HI) vs low-to-moderate intensity (LMI) exercise on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) up to 18 months after commencement of oncological treatment in patients with breast, colorectal or prostate cancer. In addition, we conducted a comparison with usual care (UC). METHODS: Patients scheduled for (neo)adjuvant oncological treatment (n = 577) were randomly assigned to 6 months of combined resistance and endurance training of HI or LMI. A longitudinal descriptive study (UC) included participants (n = 89) immediately before the RCT started. HRQoL was assessed by EORTC QLQ-C30 at baseline, 3, 6 and 18 months (1 year after completed exercise intervention) follow-up. Linear mixed models were used to study the groups over time. RESULTS: Directly after the intervention, HI scored significant (P = 0.02), but not clinically relevant, higher pain compared with LMI. No other significant difference in HRQoL was found between the exercise intensities over time. Clinically meaningful improvements in HRQoL over time were detected within both exercise intensities. We found favourable significant differences in HRQoL in both exercise intensities compared with UC over time. CONCLUSION: This study adds to the strong evidence of positive effect of exercise and shows that exercise, regardless of intensity, can have beneficial effects on HRQoL during oncological treatment and also for a substantial time after completion of an exercise intervention. In this study, for one year after. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Patients can be advised to exercise at either intensity level according to their personal preferences, and still benefit from both short-term and long-term improvements in HRQoL.

Costs and effects of comprehensive geriatric assessment in primary care for older adults with high risk for hospitalisation.

BACKGROUND: The healthcare system needs effective strategies to identify the most vulnerable group of older patients, assess their needs and plan their care proactively. To evaluate the effectiveness of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) of older adults with a high risk of hospitalisation we conducted a prospective, pragmatic, matched-control multicentre trial at 19 primary care practices in Sweden. METHODS: We identified 1604 individuals aged 75 years and older using a new, validated algorithm that calculates a risk score for hospitalisation from electronic medical records. After a nine-month run-in period for CGA in the intervention group, 74% of the available 646 participants had accepted and received CGA, and 662 participants remained in the control group. Participants at intervention practices were invited to CGA performed by a nurse together with a physician. The CGA was adapted to the primary care context. The participants thereafter received actions according to individual needs during a two-year follow-up period. Participants at control practices received care as usual. The primary outcome was hospital care days. Secondary outcomes were number of hospital care episodes, number of outpatient visits, health care costs and mortality. Outcomes were analysed according to intention to treat and adjusted for age, gender and risk score. We used generalised linear mixed models to compare the intervention group and control group regarding all outcomes. RESULTS: Mean age was 83.2 years, 51% of the 1308 participants were female. Relative risk reduction for hospital care days was - 22% (- 35% to - 4%, p = 0.02) during the two-year follow-up. Relative risk reduction for hospital care episodes was - 17% (- 30% to - 2%, p = 0.03). There were no significant differences in outpatient visits or mortality. Health care costs were significantly lower in the intervention group, adjusted mean difference was € - 4324 (€ - 7962 to - 686, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our findings indicate that CGA in primary care can reduce the need for hospital care days in a high-risk population of older adults. This could be of great importance in order to manage increasing prevalence of frailty and multimorbidity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03180606 , first posted 08/06/2017.

Actinic Keratosis Diagnosis and Increased Risk of Developing Skin Cancer: A 10-year Cohort Study of 17,651 Patients in Sweden.

Actinic keratosis is the most common actinic lesion in fair-skinned populations. It is accepted as an indicator of actinic skin damage and as an occasional precursor of squamous cell carcinoma. The aim of this study was to investigate, in a cohort of patients with a diagnosis of actinic keratosis, the relative risk of developing skin cancer during a follow-up period of 10 years. This registry-based cohort study compared a cohort of 2,893 individuals in south-eastern Sweden, who were diagnosed with actinic keratosis during the period 2000 to 2004, with a matched-control cohort of 14,668 individuals without actinic keratosis during the same inclusion period. The subjects were followed for 10 years to identify skin cancer development in both cohorts. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used as risk measures. Individuals in the actinic keratosis cohort had a markedly higher risk for all skin cancer forms compared with the control cohort (hazard ratio (HR) 5.1, 95% CI 4.7-5.6). The relative risk was highest for developing squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (HR 7.7, 95% CI 6.7-8.8) and somewhat lower for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (HR 4.4, 95% CI 4.1-5.0) and malignant melanoma (MM) (HR 2.7 (2.1-3.6). Patients with a diagnosis of actinic keratosis were found to be at increased risk of developing SCC, BCC and MM in the 10 years following diagnosis of actinic keratosis. In conclusion, a diagnosis of actinic keratosis, even in the absence of documentation of other features of chronic sun exposure, is a marker of increased risk of skin cancer, which should be addressed with individually directed preventive advice.

Clinically useful prediction of hospital admissions in an older population.

BACKGROUND: The healthcare for older adults is insufficient in many countries, not designed to meet their needs and is often described as disorganized and reactive. Prediction of older persons at risk of admission to hospital may be one important way for the future healthcare system to act proactively when meeting increasing needs for care. Therefore, we wanted to develop and test a clinically useful model for predicting hospital admissions of older persons based on routine healthcare data. METHODS: We used the healthcare data on 40,728 persons, 75-109 years of age to predict hospital in-ward care in a prospective cohort. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify significant factors predictive of unplanned hospital admission. Model fitting was accomplished using forward selection. The accuracy of the prediction model was expressed as area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, AUC. RESULTS: The prediction model consisting of 38 variables exhibited a good discriminative accuracy for unplanned hospital admissions over the following 12 months (AUC 0.69 [95% confidence interval, CI 0.68-0.70]) and was validated on external datasets. Clinically relevant proportions of predicted cases of 40 or 45% resulted in sensitivities of 62 and 66%, respectively. The corresponding positive predicted values (PPV) was 31 and 29%, respectively. CONCLUSION: A prediction model based on routine administrative healthcare data from older persons can be used to find patients at risk of admission to hospital. Identifying the risk population can enable proactive intervention for older patients with as-yet unknown needs for healthcare.

Reduced disease-specific survival following a diagnosis of multiple primary cutaneous malignant melanomas-a nationwide, population-based study.

Outcome data comparing patients with multiple primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanomas (MPMs) to single primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanomas (SPMs) show conflicting results. We have analyzed differences in disease-specific survival between these patients in a nationwide population-based setting. From the Swedish Melanoma Register, 27,235 patients were identified with a first invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) between 1990 and 2007, followed-up through 2013. Of these, 700 patients developed MPMs. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). An interval of ≤5 years between CMM diagnoses was significantly correlated to a decreased CMM-specific survival in Stage I-II MPM- vs. SPM-patients (HR 1.32; 95% CI 1.04-1.67; p = 0.02). MPM-patients with longer time interval between diagnoses experienced similar risk of CMM-death as SPM-patients. The risk of CMM-death increased by almost 50% above the expected outcome according to stage of the index CMM by the diagnosis of a second CMM (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.19-1.85; p < 0.001). MPM vs. SPM-patients had a worse outcome (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.05-1.83; p = 0.001). This emphasizes the importance of prevention efforts in SPM-patients to decrease the risk of subsequent CMMs and has implications for more vigilant follow-up in MPM-patients.

The proportion cured of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden 1990-2007: A population-based study.

The survival in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is highly dependent on the stage of the disease. Stage III-IV CMM patients are at high risk of relapse with a heterogeneous outcome, but not all experience excess mortality due to their disease. This group is referred to as the cure proportion representing the proportion of patients who experience the same mortality rate as the general population. The aim of this study was to estimate the cure proportion of patients diagnosed with Stage III-IV CMM in Sweden. From the population-based Swedish Melanoma Register, we included 856 patients diagnosed with primary Stage III-IV CMM, 1990-2007, followed-up through 2013. We used flexible parametric cure models to estimate cure proportions and median survival times (MSTs) of uncured by sex, age, tumor site, ulceration status (in Stage III patients) and disease stage. The standardized (over sex, age and site) cure proportion was lower in Stage IV CMMs (0.15, 95% CI 0.09-0.22) than non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55) with a statistically significant difference of 0.33 (95% CI = 0.24-0.41). Ulcerated Stage III CMMs had a cure proportion of 0.27 (95% CI 0.21-0.32) with a statistically significant difference compared to non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs (difference 0.21; 95% CI = 0.13-0.30). The standardized MST of uncured was approximately 9-10 months longer for non-ulcerated versus ulcerated Stage III CMMs. We could demonstrate a significantly better outcome in patients diagnosed with non-ulcerated Stage III CMMs compared to ulcerated Stage III CMMs and Stage IV disease after adjusting for age, sex and tumor site.

Prognostic factors and disease-specific survival among immigrants diagnosed with cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden.

Little is known about cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) among immigrants in Europe. We aimed to investigate clinical characteristics and disease-specific survival among first- and second-generation immigrants in Sweden. This nationwide population-based study included 27,235 patients from the Swedish Melanoma Register diagnosed with primary invasive CMM, 1990-2007. Data were linked to nationwide, population-based registers followed up through 2013. Logistic regression and Cox regression models were used to determine the association between immigrant status, stage and CMM prognosis, respectively. After adjustments for confounders, first generation immigrants from Southern Europe were associated with significantly more advanced stages of disease compared to Swedish-born patients [Stage II vs. I: Odds ratio (OR) = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.61-3.50. Stage III-IV vs I: OR = 2.40, 95% CI = 1.08-5.37]. The ORs of stage II-IV versus stage I disease were increased among men (OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.1-3.3; p = 0.020), and women (OR = 4.8; 95% CI = 2.6-9.1; p < 0.001) in a subgroup of immigrants from former Yugoslavia compared to Swedish-born patients. The CMM-specific survival was significantly decreased among women from former Yugoslavia versus Swedish-born women [hazard ratio (HR)=2.2; 95% CI = 1.1-4.2; p = 0.043]. After additional adjustments including stage, the survival difference was no longer significant. No survival difference between the second generation immigrant group and Swedish-born patients were observed. In conclusion, a worse CMM-specific survival in women from former Yugoslavia was associated with more advanced stages of CMM at diagnosis. Secondary prevention efforts focusing on specific groups may be needed to further improve the CMM prognosis.

Cutaneous malignant melanoma in the Swedish organ transplantation cohort: A study of clinicopathological characteristics and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Risk of cutaneous melanoma is increased among organ transplant recipients (OTRs) but outcome has rarely been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess melanoma characteristics and prognosis among OTRs versus the general population. METHODS: Using Swedish health care registers, we identified melanomas in OTRs (n = 49) and in the general population (n = 22,496), given a diagnosis between 1984 and 2008 and followed up through December 31, 2012. Tumor slides of posttransplantation melanomas were reviewed. Odds ratios for comparison of histopathological characteristics and hazard ratios of melanoma-specific death were calculated. RESULTS: Among OTRs the trunk was the most common anatomic melanoma site (50% among female vs 51% among male) and 73% (n = 36) of all melanomas were histologically associated with a melanocytic nevus, 63% (n = 31) atypical/dysplastic. Compared with population melanomas, posttransplantation melanomas were more advanced at diagnosis (Clark level III-V: odds ratio 2.2 [95% confidence interval 1.01-4.7, P = .03], clinical stages III-IV: odds ratio 4.2 [1.6-10.8, P = .003]). Risk of melanoma-specific death was increased among OTRs: adjusted hazard ratio 3.0 (1.7-5.3, P = .0002). LIMITATIONS: Only posttransplantation melanoma slides were reviewed. CONCLUSIONS: Melanomas were more advanced at diagnosis and melanoma-specific survival was poorer in OTRs than in the general population. Prophylactic excision of truncal nevi among OTRs may be advised.

Population-Based Validation of the MIA and MSKCC Tools for Predicting Sentinel Lymph Node Status.

Importance: Patients with melanoma are selected for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) based on their risk of a positive SLN. To improve selection, the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) developed predictive models, but the utility of these models remains to be tested. Objective: To determine the clinical utility of the MIA and MSKCC models. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based comparative effectiveness research study including 10 089 consecutive patients with cutaneous melanoma undergoing SLNB from the Swedish Melanoma Registry from January 2007 to December 2021. Data were analyzed from May to August 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures,: The predicted probability of SLN positivity was calculated using the MSKCC model and a limited MIA model (using mitotic rate as absent/present instead of count/mm2 and excluding the optional variable lymphovascular invasion) for each patient. The operating characteristics of the models were assessed and compared. The clinical utility of each model was assessed using decision curve analysis and compared with a strategy of performing SLNB on all patients. Results: Among 10 089 included patients, the median (IQR) age was 64.0 (52.0-73.0) years, and 5340 (52.9%) were male. The median Breslow thickness was 1.8 mm, and 1802 patients (17.9%) had a positive SLN. Both models were well calibrated across the full range of predicted probabilities and had similar external area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC; MSKCC: 70.8%; 95% CI, 69.5-72.1 and limited MIA: 69.7%; 95% CI, 68.4-71.1). At a risk threshold of 5%, decision curve analysis indicated no added net benefit for either model compared to performing SLNB for all patients. At risk thresholds of 10% or higher, both models added net benefit compared to SLNB for all patients. The greatest benefit was observed in patients with T2 melanomas using a threshold of 10%; in that setting, the use of the nomograms led to a net reduction of 8 avoidable SLNBs per 100 patients for the MSKCC nomogram and 7 per 100 patients for the limited MIA nomogram compared to a strategy of SLNB for all. Conclusions and Relevance: This study confirmed the statistical performance of both the MSKCC and limited MIA models in a large, nationally representative data set. However, decision curve analysis demonstrated that using the models only improved selection for SLNB compared to biopsy in all patients when a risk threshold of at least 7% was used, with the greatest benefit seen for T2 melanomas at a threshold of 10%. Care should be taken when using these nomograms to guide selection for SLNB at the lowest thresholds.

Population-based prognostic instrument (SweMR 2.0) for melanoma-specific survival - An ideal tool for individualised treatment decisions for Swedish patients.

INTRODUCTION: The prognosis for patients with melanoma has improved due to better treatments in recent years and updated tools to accurately predict an individual's risk are warranted. This study aims to describe a prognostic instrument for patients with cutaneous melanoma and its potential as a clinical device for treatment decisions. METHODS: Patients with localised invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed in 1990-2021 with data on tumour thickness were identified from the population-based Swedish Melanoma Registry. The parametric Royston-Parmar (RP) method was used to estimate melanoma-specific survival (MSS) probabilities. Separate models were constructed for patients (≤1 mm) and (>1 mm) and prognostic groups were created based on all combinations of age, sex, tumour site, tumour thickness, absence/presence of ulceration, histopathologic type, Clark's level of invasion, mitoses and sentinel lymph node (SLN) status. RESULTS: In total, 72 616 patients were identified, 41 764 with melanoma ≤1 mm and 30 852 with melanoma >1 mm. The most important variable was tumour thickness for both (≤1 mm) and (>1 mm), that explained more than 50% of the survival. The second most important variables were mitoses (≤1 mm) and SLN status (>1 mm). The prognostic instrument successfully created probabilities for >30 000 prognostic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The Swedish updated population-based prognostic instrument, predicts MSS survival up to 10 years after diagnosis. The prognostic instrument gives more representative and up-to-date prognostic information for Swedish patients with primary melanoma than the present AJCC staging. Additional to clinical use and the adjuvant setting, the information retrieved could be used to plan future studies.

A decision support model for cost-effectiveness of radical prostatectomy in localized prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a probabilistic decision support model to calculate the lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between radical prostatectomy and watchful waiting for different patient groups. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A randomized trial (SPCG-4) provided most data for this study. Data on survival, costs and quality of life were inputs in a decision analysis, and a decision support model was developed. The model can generate cost-effectiveness information on subgroups of patients with different characteristics. RESULTS: Age was the most important independent factor explaining cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness value varied from 21,026 Swedish kronor (SEK) to 858,703 SEK for those aged 65 to 75 years, depending on Gleason scores and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. Information from the decision support model can support decision makers in judging whether or not radical prostatectomy (RP) should be used to treat a specific patient group. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness ratio for RP varies with age, Gleason scores, and PSA values. Assuming a threshold value of 200,000 SEK per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, for patients aged ≤70 years the treatment was always cost-effective, except at age 70, Gleason 0-4 and PSA ≤10. Using the same threshold value at age 75, Gleason 7-9 (regardless of PSA) and Gleason 5-6 (with PSA >20) were cost-effective. Hence, RP was not perceived to be cost-effective in men aged 75 years with low Gleason and low PSA. Higher threshold values for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer could be discussed.

Cost-Effectiveness of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment Adapted to Primary Care.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic trial of comprehensive geriatric assessment adapted to primary care, compared with care as usual. DESIGN: Within-trial cost-effectiveness study of a prospective controlled multicenter trial. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Nineteen primary care practices in Sweden. The original trial included 1304 individuals aged ≥75 years at high risk of hospitalization selected using a prediction model. From the original trial, 369 individuals participated in the cost-effectiveness analysis, 185 in the intervention group and 184 in the control group. Mean age was 83.9 years and 57% of the participants were men. METHODS: We obtained health care costs from administrative registries. Community costs and health-related quality of life data were obtained from a questionnaire sent to participants. Health-related quality of life was measured using EQ-5D-3L and quality-adjusted life years were calculated. We analyzed all outcomes according to intention to treat, and adjusted them to age, gender, and risk score (risk of hospitalization in the next 12 months). The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with the intervention at follow-up after 24 months. RESULTS: The difference in total cost (incremental cost) between intervention and control groups was USD -11,275 (95% CI -407 to -22,142). The incremental effect in quality-adjusted life years was -0.05 (95% CI -0.17 to 0.08). In the cost-effectiveness plane that illustrates the uncertainty of the analysis, 77.9 of the observations were within the south-east quadrant, implying lower cost and greater effect in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The results suggests that a primary care comprehensive geriatric assessment intervention delivered to older adults at high risk of hospitalization is cost-effective at follow-up after 24 months. The use of a prediction model to select participants and an intervention with a low cost is promising but requires further study.

Montreal Cognitive Assessment: Normative Data for Cognitively Healthy Swedish 80- to 94-Year-Olds.

BACKGROUND: The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) is sensitive to cognitive impairment; however, it is also sensitive to demographic and socio-cultural factors. This necessitates reliable sub-population norms, but these are often lacking for older adults. OBJECTIVE: To present demographically adjusted regression-based MoCA norms for cognitively healthy Swedish older adults. METHODS: A pseudo-random sample of community-dwelling 80- to 94-year-olds, stratified by age and gender, was invited to the study. Initial telephone interviews and medical records searches (n = 218) were conducted to screen for cognitive impairment. N = 181 eligible participants were administered a protocol including the Swedish version of the MoCA and assessments of global cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination, MMSE) and depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9, PHQ-9). Individuals scoring in the range of possible cognitive impairment on the MMSE or more than mild depression on the PHQ-9 were excluded (n = 23); three discontinued the test-session. RESULTS: Norms were derived from the remaining n = 158. They were evenly distributed by gender, on average 85 years old, and with a mean education of 11 years. MoCA scores were independently influenced by age and education, together explaining 17.2% of the total variance. Higher age and lower education were associated with lower performance and 46% performed below the original cut-off (< 26/30). CONCLUSION: The negative impact of increasing age on MoCA performance continues linearly into the nineties in normal aging. Demographic factors should be considered when interpreting MoCA performance and a tool for computing demographically corrected standard scores is provided.

Prediction modelling the impact of onset to treatment time on the modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days for patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Introduction: Shortening the time from stroke onset to treatment increases the effectiveness of endovascular stroke therapies. Aim: This study aimed to predict the modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days post-stroke (mRS-90d score) in patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) with respect to four types of treatment: conservative therapy (CVT), intravenous thrombolysis only (IVT), mechanical thrombectomy only (MT) and pretreatment with IVT before MT (IVT+MT). Patients and methods: This nationwide observational study included 124 484 confirmed cases of acute stroke in Sweden over 6 years (2012-2017). The associations between onset-to-treatment time (OTT), patient age and hospital admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score with the five-levelled mRS-90d score were retrospectively studied. A generalised linear model (GLM) was fitted to predict the mRS-90d scores for each patient group. Results: The fitted GLM for CVT patients is a function of age and NIHSS score. For IVT, MT and IVT+MT patients, GLMs additionally employed OTT variables. By reducing the mean OTTs by 15 min, the number needed-to-treat (NNT) for one patient to make a favourable one-step shift in the mRS was 30 for IVT, 48 for MT and 21 for IVT+MT. Discussion and conclusion: This study demonstrates linear associations of mRS-90d score with OTT for IVT, MT and IVT+MT, and shows in absolute effects measures that OTT reductions for IVT and/or MT produces substantial health gains for patients with AIS. Even moderate OTT reductions led to sharp drops in the NNT.