New methods for separating causes from effects in genomics data.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of molecular pathways is a challenging problem and its solution relies on the identification of causal molecular interactions in genomics data. Causal molecular interactions can be discovered using randomized experiments; however such experiments are often costly, infeasible, or unethical. Fortunately, algorithms that infer causal interactions from observational data have been in development for decades, predominantly in the quantitative sciences, and many of them have recently been applied to genomics data. While these algorithms can infer unoriented causal interactions between involved molecular variables (i.e., without specifying which one is the cause and which one is the effect), causally orienting all inferred molecular interactions was assumed to be an unsolvable problem until recently. In this work, we use transcription factor-target gene regulatory interactions in three different organisms to evaluate a new family of methods that, given observational data for just two causally related variables, can determine which one is the cause and which one is the effect. RESULTS: We have found that a particular family of causal orientation methods (IGCI Gaussian) is often able to accurately infer directionality of causal interactions, and that these methods usually outperform other causal orientation techniques. We also introduced a novel ensemble technique for causal orientation that combines decisions of individual causal orientation methods. The ensemble method was found to be more accurate than any best individual causal orientation method in the tested data. CONCLUSIONS: This work represents a first step towards establishing context for practical use of causal orientation methods in the genomics domain. We have found that some causal orientation methodologies yield accurate predictions of causal orientation in genomics data, and we have improved on this capability with a novel ensemble method. Our results suggest that these methods have the potential to facilitate reconstruction of molecular pathways by minimizing the number of required randomized experiments to find causal directionality and by avoiding experiments that are infeasible and/or unethical.

A comprehensive assessment of methods for de-novo reverse-engineering of genome-scale regulatory networks.

De-novo reverse-engineering of genome-scale regulatory networks is an increasingly important objective for biological and translational research. While many methods have been recently developed for this task, their absolute and relative performance remains poorly understood. The present study conducts a rigorous performance assessment of 32 computational methods/variants for de-novo reverse-engineering of genome-scale regulatory networks by benchmarking these methods in 15 high-quality datasets and gold-standards of experimentally verified mechanistic knowledge. The results of this study show that some methods need to be substantially improved upon, while others should be used routinely. Our results also demonstrate that several univariate methods provide a "gatekeeper" performance threshold that should be applied when method developers assess the performance of their novel multivariate algorithms. Finally, the results of this study can be used to show practical utility and to establish guidelines for everyday use of reverse-engineering algorithms, aiming towards creation of automated data-analysis protocols and software systems.

Algorithms for Discovery of Multiple Markov Boundaries.

Algorithms for Markov boundary discovery from data constitute an important recent development in machine learning, primarily because they offer a principled solution to the variable/feature selection problem and give insight on local causal structure. Over the last decade many sound algorithms have been proposed to identify a single Markov boundary of the response variable. Even though faithful distributions and, more broadly, distributions that satisfy the intersection property always have a single Markov boundary, other distributions/data sets may have multiple Markov boundaries of the response variable. The latter distributions/data sets are common in practical data-analytic applications, and there are several reasons why it is important to induce multiple Markov boundaries from such data. However, there are currently no sound and efficient algorithms that can accomplish this task. This paper describes a family of algorithms TIE* that can discover all Markov boundaries in a distribution. The broad applicability as well as efficiency of the new algorithmic family is demonstrated in an extensive benchmarking study that involved comparison with 26 state-of-the-art algorithms/variants in 15 data sets from a diversity of application domains.

Expanding the understanding of biases in development of clinical-grade molecular signatures: a case study in acute respiratory viral infections.

BACKGROUND: The promise of modern personalized medicine is to use molecular and clinical information to better diagnose, manage, and treat disease, on an individual patient basis. These functions are predominantly enabled by molecular signatures, which are computational models for predicting phenotypes and other responses of interest from high-throughput assay data. Data-analytics is a central component of molecular signature development and can jeopardize the entire process if conducted incorrectly. While exploratory data analysis may tolerate suboptimal protocols, clinical-grade molecular signatures are subject to vastly stricter requirements. Closing the gap between standards for exploratory versus clinically successful molecular signatures entails a thorough understanding of possible biases in the data analysis phase and developing strategies to avoid them. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a recently introduced data-analytic protocol as a case study, we provide an in-depth examination of the poorly studied biases of the data-analytic protocols related to signature multiplicity, biomarker redundancy, data preprocessing, and validation of signature reproducibility. The methodology and results presented in this work are aimed at expanding the understanding of these data-analytic biases that affect development of clinically robust molecular signatures. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Several recommendations follow from the current study. First, all molecular signatures of a phenotype should be extracted to the extent possible, in order to provide comprehensive and accurate grounds for understanding disease pathogenesis. Second, redundant genes should generally be removed from final signatures to facilitate reproducibility and decrease manufacturing costs. Third, data preprocessing procedures should be designed so as not to bias biomarker selection. Finally, molecular signatures developed and applied on different phenotypes and populations of patients should be treated with great caution.

Causal graph-based analysis of genome-wide association data in rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: GWAS owe their popularity to the expectation that they will make a major impact on diagnosis, prognosis and management of disease by uncovering genetics underlying clinical phenotypes. The dominant paradigm in GWAS data analysis so far consists of extensive reliance on methods that emphasize contribution of individual SNPs to statistical association with phenotypes. Multivariate methods, however, can extract more information by considering associations of multiple SNPs simultaneously. Recent advances in other genomics domains pinpoint multivariate causal graph-based inference as a promising principled analysis framework for high-throughput data. Designed to discover biomarkers in the local causal pathway of the phenotype, these methods lead to accurate and highly parsimonious multivariate predictive models. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of causal graph-based method TIE* to analysis of GWAS data. To test the utility of TIE*, we focus on anti-CCP positive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) GWAS datasets, where there is a general consensus in the community about the major genetic determinants of the disease. RESULTS: Application of TIE* to the North American Rheumatoid Arthritis Cohort (NARAC) GWAS data results in six SNPs, mostly from the MHC locus. Using these SNPs we develop two predictive models that can classify cases and disease-free controls with an accuracy of 0.81 area under the ROC curve, as verified in independent testing data from the same cohort. The predictive performance of these models generalizes reasonably well to Swedish subjects from the closely related but not identical Epidemiological Investigation of Rheumatoid Arthritis (EIRA) cohort with 0.71-0.78 area under the ROC curve. Moreover, the SNPs identified by the TIE* method render many other previously known SNP associations conditionally independent of the phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: Our experiments demonstrate that application of TIE* captures maximum amount of genetic information about RA in the data and recapitulates the major consensus findings about the genetic factors of this disease. In addition, TIE* yields reproducible markers and signatures of RA. This suggests that principled multivariate causal and predictive framework for GWAS analysis empowers the community with a new tool for high-quality and more efficient discovery. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Anthony Almudevar, Dr. Eugene V. Koonin, and Prof. Marianthi Markatou.

Using gene expression profiles from peripheral blood to identify asymptomatic responses to acute respiratory viral infections.

BACKGROUND: A recent study reported that gene expression profiles from peripheral blood samples of healthy subjects prior to viral inoculation were indistinguishable from profiles of subjects who received viral challenge but remained asymptomatic and uninfected. If true, this implies that the host immune response does not have a molecular signature. Given the high sensitivity of microarray technology, we were intrigued by this result and hypothesize that it was an artifact of data analysis. FINDINGS: Using acute respiratory viral challenge microarray data, we developed a molecular signature that for the first time allowed for an accurate differentiation between uninfected subjects prior to viral inoculation and subjects who remained asymptomatic after the viral challenge. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that molecular signatures can be used to characterize immune responses to viruses and may improve our understanding of susceptibility to viral infection with possible implications for vaccine development.