The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 N501Y lineages.

The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three "501Y lineages" coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes. Following their emergence, the adaptive evolution of 501Y lineage viruses has involved repeated selectively favored convergent mutations at 35 genome sites, mutations we refer to as the 501Y meta-signature. The ongoing convergence of viruses in many other lineages on this meta-signature suggests that it includes multiple mutation combinations capable of promoting the persistence of diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the face of mounting host immune recognition.

Natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats created a generalist virus and highly capable human pathogen.

Virus host shifts are generally associated with novel adaptations to exploit the cells of the new host species optimally. Surprisingly, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has apparently required little to no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to October 2020. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus the early SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses. In contrast, our analysis detects evidence for significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting at the base of the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in these ancestral bat hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor about 1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. While an undiscovered "facilitating" intermediate species cannot be discounted, collectively, our results support the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 being capable of efficient human-human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans, which created a relatively generalist virus.

Selection Analysis Identifies Clusters of Unusual Mutational Changes in Omicron Lineage BA.1 That Likely Impact Spike Function.

Among the 30 nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (1) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (2) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (3) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any virus within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and, in combination with other mutations, adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron overall previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

In vitro selection of Remdesivir resistance suggests evolutionary predictability of SARS-CoV-2.

Remdesivir (RDV), a broadly acting nucleoside analogue, is the only FDA approved small molecule antiviral for the treatment of COVID-19 patients. To date, there are no reports identifying SARS-CoV-2 RDV resistance in patients, animal models or in vitro. Here, we selected drug-resistant viral populations by serially passaging SARS-CoV-2 in vitro in the presence of RDV. Using high throughput sequencing, we identified a single mutation in RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (NSP12) at a residue conserved among all coronaviruses in two independently evolved populations displaying decreased RDV sensitivity. Introduction of the NSP12 E802D mutation into our SARS-CoV-2 reverse genetics backbone confirmed its role in decreasing RDV sensitivity in vitro. Substitution of E802 did not affect viral replication or activity of an alternate nucleoside analogue (EIDD2801) but did affect virus fitness in a competition assay. Analysis of the globally circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants (>800,000 sequences) showed no evidence of widespread transmission of RDV-resistant mutants. Surprisingly, we observed an excess of substitutions in spike at corresponding sites identified in the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (i.e., H69, E484, N501, H655) indicating that they can arise in vitro in the absence of immune selection. The identification and characterisation of a drug resistant signature within the SARS-CoV-2 genome has implications for clinical management and virus surveillance.

Evolutionary history of human Plasmodium vivax revealed by genome-wide analyses of related ape parasites.

Wild-living African apes are endemically infected with parasites that are closely related to human Plasmodium vivax, a leading cause of malaria outside Africa. This finding suggests that the origin of P. vivax was in Africa, even though the parasite is now rare in humans there. To elucidate the emergence of human P. vivax and its relationship to the ape parasites, we analyzed genome sequence data of P. vivax strains infecting six chimpanzees and one gorilla from Cameroon, Gabon, and Côte d'Ivoire. We found that ape and human parasites share nearly identical core genomes, differing by only 2% of coding sequences. However, compared with the ape parasites, human strains of P. vivax exhibit about 10-fold less diversity and have a relative excess of nonsynonymous nucleotide polymorphisms, with site-frequency spectra suggesting they are subject to greatly relaxed purifying selection. These data suggest that human P. vivax has undergone an extreme bottleneck, followed by rapid population expansion. Investigating potential host-specificity determinants, we found that ape P. vivax parasites encode intact orthologs of three reticulocyte-binding protein genes (rbp2d, rbp2e, and rbp3), which are pseudogenes in all human P. vivax strains. However, binding studies of recombinant RBP2e and RBP3 proteins to human, chimpanzee, and gorilla erythrocytes revealed no evidence of host-specific barriers to red blood cell invasion. These data suggest that, from an ancient stock of P. vivax parasites capable of infecting both humans and apes, a severely bottlenecked lineage emerged out of Africa and underwent rapid population growth as it spread globally.

The Timing and Magnitude of the Type I Interferon Response Are Correlated with Disease Tolerance in Arbovirus Infection.

Infected hosts possess two alternative strategies to protect themselves against the negative impact of virus infections: resistance, used to abrogate virus replication, and disease tolerance, used to avoid tissue damage without controlling viral burden. The principles governing pathogen resistance are well understood, while less is known about those involved in disease tolerance. Here, we studied bluetongue virus (BTV), the cause of bluetongue disease of ruminants, as a model system to investigate the mechanisms of virus-host interactions correlating with disease tolerance. BTV induces clinical disease mainly in sheep, while cattle are considered reservoirs of infection, rarely exhibiting clinical symptoms despite sustained viremia. Using primary cells from multiple donors, we show that BTV consistently reaches higher titers in ovine cells than cells from cattle. The variable replication kinetics of BTV in sheep and cow cells were mostly abolished by abrogating the cell type I interferon (IFN) response. We identified restriction factors blocking BTV replication, but both the sheep and cow orthologues of these antiviral genes possess anti-BTV properties. Importantly, we demonstrate that BTV induces a faster host cell protein synthesis shutoff in primary sheep cells than cow cells, which results in an earlier downregulation of antiviral proteins. Moreover, by using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq), we also show a more pronounced expression of interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) in BTV-infected cow cells than sheep cells. Our data provide a new perspective on how the type I IFN response in reservoir species can have overall positive effects on both virus and host evolution. IMPORTANCE The host immune response usually aims to inhibit virus replication in order to avoid cell damage and disease. In some cases, however, the infected host avoids the deleterious effects of infection despite high levels of viral replication. This strategy is known as disease tolerance, and it is used by animal reservoirs of some zoonotic viruses. Here, using a virus of ruminants (bluetongue virus [BTV]) as an experimental system, we dissected virus-host interactions in cells collected from species that are susceptible (sheep) or tolerant (cow) to disease. We show that (i) virus modulation of the host antiviral type I interferon (IFN) responses, (ii) viral replication kinetics, and (iii) virus-induced cell damage differ in tolerant and susceptible BTV-infected cells. Understanding the complex virus-host interactions in disease tolerance can allow us to disentangle the critical balance between protective and damaging host immune responses.

Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment. RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42-3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76-1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22-1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68-1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron. CONCLUSIONS: The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.

The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased clinical severity of COVID-19 in Scotland: A genomics-based retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. METHODS: In this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the Alpha variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. RESULTS: Our cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus pre-Alpha variants). CONCLUSIONS: The Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages.

Conserved recombination patterns across coronavirus subgenera.

Recombination contributes to the genetic diversity found in coronaviruses and is known to be a prominent mechanism whereby they evolve. It is apparent, both from controlled experiments and in genome sequences sampled from nature, that patterns of recombination in coronaviruses are non-random and that this is likely attributable to a combination of sequence features that favour the occurrence of recombination break points at specific genomic sites, and selection disfavouring the survival of recombinants within which favourable intra-genome interactions have been disrupted. Here we leverage available whole-genome sequence data for six coronavirus subgenera to identify specific patterns of recombination that are conserved between multiple subgenera and then identify the likely factors that underlie these conserved patterns. Specifically, we confirm the non-randomness of recombination break points across all six tested coronavirus subgenera, locate conserved recombination hot- and cold-spots, and determine that the locations of transcriptional regulatory sequences are likely major determinants of conserved recombination break-point hotspot locations. We find that while the locations of recombination break points are not uniformly associated with degrees of nucleotide sequence conservation, they display significant tendencies in multiple coronavirus subgenera to occur in low guanine-cytosine content genome regions, in non-coding regions, at the edges of genes, and at sites within the Spike gene that are predicted to be minimally disruptive of Spike protein folding. While it is apparent that sequence features such as transcriptional regulatory sequences are likely major determinants of where the template-switching events that yield recombination break points most commonly occur, it is evident that selection against misfolded recombinant proteins also strongly impacts observable recombination break-point distributions in coronavirus genomes sampled from nature.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is an immune escape variant with an altered cell entry pathway.

Vaccines based on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 are a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. The emergence of hypermutated, increasingly transmissible variants of concern (VOCs) threaten this strategy. Omicron (B.1.1.529), the fifth VOC to be described, harbours multiple amino acid mutations in spike, half of which lie within the receptor-binding domain. Here we demonstrate substantial evasion of neutralization by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants in vitro using sera from individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. These data were mirrored by a substantial reduction in real-world vaccine effectiveness that was partially restored by booster vaccination. The Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 did not induce cell syncytia in vitro and favoured a TMPRSS2-independent endosomal entry pathway, these phenotypes mapping to distinct regions of the spike protein. Impaired cell fusion was determined by the receptor-binding domain, while endosomal entry mapped to the S2 domain. Such marked changes in antigenicity and replicative biology may underlie the rapid global spread and altered pathogenicity of the Omicron variant.

Selection analysis identifies unusual clustered mutational changes in Omicron lineage BA.1 that likely impact Spike function.

Among the 30 non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (i) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (ii) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (iii) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any genomes within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron over all previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the N501Y lineages coincides with a major global shift in the SARS-CoV-2 selective landscape.

The emergence and rapid rise in prevalence of three independent SARS-CoV-2 "501Y lineages", B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1, in the last three months of 2020 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to adapt to both rising population immunity, and public health interventions such as vaccines and social distancing. Viruses giving rise to the different 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique and convergent mutations. As a consequence, all have gained epidemiological and immunological properties that will likely complicate the control of COVID-19. Here, by examining patterns of mutations that arose in SARSCoV-2 genomes during the pandemic we find evidence of a major change in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes and gene segments (such as S, nsp2 and nsp6), that likely coincided with the emergence of the 501Y lineages. In addition to involving continuing sequence diversification, we find evidence that a significant portion of the ongoing adaptive evolution of the 501Y lineages also involves further convergence between the lineages. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring how members of these known 501Y lineages, and others still undiscovered, are convergently evolving similar strategies to ensure their persistence in the face of mounting infection and vaccine induced host immune recognition.

No evidence for distinct types in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

A recent study by Tang et al. claimed that two major types of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) had evolved in the ongoing CoV disease-2019 pandemic and that one of these types was more 'aggressive' than the other. Given the repercussions of these claims and the intense media coverage of these types of articles, we have examined in detail the data presented by Tang et al., and show that the major conclusions of that paper cannot be substantiated. Using examples from other viral outbreaks, we discuss the difficulty in demonstrating the existence or nature of a functional effect of a viral mutation, and we advise against overinterpretation of genomic data during the pandemic.

Natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats, not humans, created a highly capable human pathogen.

RNA viruses are proficient at switching host species, and evolving adaptations to exploit the new host's cells efficiently. Surprisingly, SARS-CoV-2 has apparently required no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with no observed selective sweeps since genome sampling began. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses . In contrast, our analysis detects significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting on the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in ancestral hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor ∼1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. Collectively our results demonstrate the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 was capable of near immediate human-human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans.

Adaptive Evolution of RH5 in Ape Plasmodium species of the Laverania Subgenus.

Plasmodium falciparum, the major cause of malaria morbidity and mortality in humans, has been shown to have emerged after cross-species transmission of one of six host-specific parasites (subgenus Laverania) infecting wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla). Binding of the parasite-encoded ligand RH5 to the host protein basigin is essential for erythrocyte invasion and has been implicated in host specificity. A recent study claimed to have found two amino acid changes in RH5 that "drove the host shift leading to the emergence of P. falciparum as a human pathogen." However, the ape Laverania data available at that time, which included only a single distantly related chimpanzee parasite sequence, were inadequate to justify any such conclusion. Here, we have investigated Laverania Rh5 gene evolution using sequences from all six ape parasite species. Searching for gene-wide episodic selection across the entire Laverania phylogeny, we found eight codons to be under positive selection, including three that correspond to contact residues known to form hydrogen bonds between P. falciparum RH5 and human basigin. One of these sites (residue 197) has changed subsequent to the transmission from apes to humans that gave rise to P. falciparum, suggesting a possible role in the adaptation of the gorilla parasite to the human host. We also found evidence that the patterns of nucleotide polymorphisms in P. falciparum are not typical of Laverania species and likely reflect the recent demographic history of the human parasite.IMPORTANCE A number of closely related, host-specific malaria parasites infecting wild chimpanzees and gorillas have recently been described. The most important cause of human malaria, Plasmodium falciparum, is now known to have resulted from a cross-species transmission of one of the gorilla parasites. Overcoming species-specific interactions between a parasite ligand, RH5, and its receptor on host cells, basigin, was likely an important step in the origin of the human parasite. We have investigated the evolution of the Rh5 gene and found evidence of adaptive changes during the diversification of the ape parasite species at sites that are known to form bonds with human basigin. One of these changes occurred at the origin of P. falciparum, implicating it as an important adaptation to the human host.