Modelling Eurasian beaver foraging habitat and dam suitability, for predicting the location and number of dams throughout catchments in Great Britain.

Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) populations are expanding across Europe. Depending on location, beaver dams bring multiple benefits and/or require management. Using nationally available data, we developed: a Beaver Forage Index (BFI), identifying beaver foraging habitat, and a Beaver Dam Capacity (BDC) model, classifying suitability of river reaches for dam construction, to estimate location and number of dams at catchment scales. Models were executed across three catchments, in Great Britain (GB), containing beaver. An area of 6747 km2 was analysed for BFI and 16,739 km of stream for BDC. Field surveys identified 258 km of channel containing beaver activity and 89 dams, providing data to test predictions. Models were evaluated using a categorical binomial Bayesian framework to calculate probability of foraging and dam construction. BFI and BDC models successfully categorised the use of reaches for foraging and damming, with higher scoring reaches being preferred. Highest scoring categories were ca. 31 and 79 times more likely to be used than the lowest for foraging and damming respectively. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression showed that modelled dam capacity was significantly related (p = 0.01) to observed damming and was used to predict numbers of dams that may occur. Estimated densities of dams, averaged across each catchment, ranged from 0.4 to 1.6 dams/km, though local densities may be up to 30 dams/km. These models provide fundamental information describing the distribution of beaver foraging habitat, where dams may be constructed and how many may occur. This supports the development of policy and management concerning the reintroduction and recolonisation of beaver.

What are the Conditions of Riparian Ecosystems? Identifying Impaired Floodplain Ecosystems across the Western U.S. Using the Riparian Condition Assessment (RCA) Tool.

Environmental stressors associated with human land and water-use activities have degraded many riparian ecosystems across the western United States. These stressors include (i) the widespread expansion of invasive plant species that displace native vegetation and exacerbate streamflow and sediment regime alteration; (ii) agricultural and urban development in valley bottoms that decouple streams and rivers from their floodplains and reduce instream wood recruitment and retention; and (iii) flow modification that reduces water quantity and quality, degrading aquatic habitats. Here we apply a novel drainage network model to assess the impacts of multiple stressors on reach-scale riparian condition across two large U.S. regions. In this application, we performed a riparian condition assessment evaluating three dominant stressors: (1) riparian vegetation departure from historical condition; (2) land-use intensity within valley bottoms; and (3) floodplain fragmentation caused by infrastructure within valley bottoms, combining these stressors in a fuzzy inference system. We used freely available, geospatial data to estimate reach-scale (500 m) riparian condition for 52,800 km of perennial streams and rivers, 25,600 km in Utah, and 27,200 km in 12 watersheds of the interior Columbia River Basin (CRB). Model outputs showed that riparian condition has been at least moderately impaired across ≈70% of the streams and rivers in Utah and ≈49% in the CRB. We found 84% agreement (Cohen's ĸ = 0.79) between modeled reaches and field plots, indicating that modeled riparian condition reasonably approximates on-the-ground conditions. Our approach to assessing riparian condition can be used to prioritize watershed-scale floodplain conservation and restoration by providing network-scale data on the extent and severity of riparian degradation. The approach that we applied here is flexible and can be expanded to run with additional riparian stressor data and/or finer resolution input data.

Riparian vegetation as an indicator of riparian condition: Detecting departures from historic condition across the North American West.

Floodplain riparian ecosystems support unique vegetation communities and high biodiversity relative to terrestrial landscapes. Accordingly, estimating riparian ecosystem health across landscapes is critical for sustainable river management. However, methods that identify local riparian vegetation condition, an effective proxy for riparian health, have not been applied across broad, regional extents. Here we present an index to assess reach-scale (500 m segment) riparian vegetation condition across entire drainage networks within large, physiographically-diverse regions. We estimated riparian vegetation condition for 53,250 km of perennial streams and rivers, 25,685 km in Utah, and 27,565 km in twelve watersheds of the interior Columbia River Basin (CRB), USA. We used nationally available, existing land cover classification derived from 30 m Landsat imagery (LANDFIRE EVT) and a modeled estimate of pre-European settlement land cover (LANDFIRE BpS). The index characterizes riparian vegetation condition as the ratio of existing native riparian vegetation cover to pre-European settlement riparian vegetation cover at a given reach. Roughly 62% of Utah and 48% of CRB watersheds showed significant (>33%) to large (>66%) departure from historic condition. Riparian vegetation change was predominantly caused by human land-use impacts (development and agriculture), or vegetation change (native riparian to invasive or upland vegetation types) that likely resulted from flow and disturbance regime alteration. Through comparisons to ground-based classification results, we estimate the existing vegetation component of the index to be 85% accurate. Our assessments yielded riparian condition maps that will help resource managers better prioritize sites and treatments for reach-scale conservation and restoration activities.

An occupancy-based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States.

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so-called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889-2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post-development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34-61) and 15% (95% CI 6-33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001-2011), top performing (based on AICc ) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.

Una Cuantificación Basada en la Ocupación del Estado Altamente en Peligro de los Peces del Desierto del Suroeste de los Estados Unidos Resumen Los peces del desierto son unos de los vertebrados en mayor peligro a nivel mundial debido a su bajo valor económico y a que compiten por el agua con los humanos. Un complejo ecológico de peces, dos miembros de la familia Catostomidae (Catostomus latipinnis, C. discobolus) y un bagre (Gila robusta) (todos manejados colectivamente como las llamadas tres especies), endémico a la cuenca estadunidense del Río Colorado, está afectado por múltiples factores estresantes y supuestamente ha declinado dramáticamente. Construimos una serie de modelos de ocupación para determinar las relaciones entre las tendencias de ocupación, la extinción local y las tasas de colonización, para identificar los factores limitantes potenciales y para evaluar la idoneidad del manejo colectivo de las tres especies. Durante un periodo histórico (1889 - 2011), los modelos con el mejor desempeño (AICc) incluyeron una tendencia positiva de tiempo en la probabilidad de extinción local y una tendencia negativa en la probabilidad de colonización local. La probabilidad de extinción local incrementó conforme disminuyó la frecuencia de inundaciones pos-desarrollo. Al final de la serie de tiempo, el 47% (95% IC 34 - 61) y el 15% (95% IC 6 - 33) de los sitios permanecieron ocupados por los catostómidos y el bagre, respectivamente, y los modelos con las dos especies de catostómidos como un grupo y el bagre como otro tuvieron el mejor desempeño. Para un periodo contemporáneo (2001 - 2011), los modelos con el mejor desempeño (basados en AICc) incluyeron a la mayor descarga anual. La probabilidad de extinción local disminuyó y la probabilidad de colonización local incrementó conforme incrementó la mayor descarga. Para el periodo contemporáneo, los resultados de los modelos que dividieron a las tres especies en grupos separados fueron similares a los resultados de los modelos que combinaron a los dos catostómidos pero no al bagre. Colectivamente, estos resultados confirmaron que las declinaciones de estos peces estuvieron fuertemente asociadas con el desarrollo del agua y que, en relación a su distribución histórica, las tres especies han declinado dramáticamente. Además, el bagre se distinguió por declinar más dramáticamente y por lo tanto tal vez requiera de manejo por separado. Nuestra estrategia de modelado puede ser útil en otras situaciones en las que los datos de importancia son escasos y el estado de conservación y la mejor estrategia de manejo para múltiples especies son inciertos.

An innovative aerial assessment of Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem mountain pine beetle-caused whitebark pine mortality.

An innovative aerial survey method called the Landscape Assessment System (LAS) was used to assess mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae)-caused mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) across the species distribution in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE; 894 774 ha). This large-scale implementation of the LAS method consisted of 8673 km of flight lines, along which 4653 geo-tagged, oblique aerial photos were captured at the catchment level (a subset of 12-digit USGS hydrologic units) and geographic information system (GIS) processed. The Mountain Pine Beetle-caused Mortality Rating System, a landscape-scale classification system designed specifically to measure the cumulative effects of recent and older MPB attacks on whitebark pine, was used to classify mortality with a rating from 0 to 6 based on the amount of red (recent attack) and gray (old attack) trees visible. The approach achieved a photo inventory of 79% of the GYE whitebark pine distribution. For the remaining 21%, mortality levels were estimated based on an interpolated surface. Results that combine the photo-inventoried and interpolated mortality indicate that nearly half (46%) of the GYE whitebark pine distribution showed severe mortality (3-4 or 5.3-5.4 rating), 36% showed moderate mortality (2-2.9 rating), 13% showed low mortality (1-1.9 rating), and 5% showed trace levels of mortality (0-0.9). These results reveal that the proliferation of MPB in the subalpine zone of the GYE due to climate warming has led to whitebark pine mortality that is more severe and widespread than indicated from either previous modeling research or USDA Forest Service Aerial Detection surveys. Sixteen of the 22 major mountain ranges of the GYE have experienced widespread moderate-to-severe mortality. The majority of catchments in the other six mountain ranges show low-to-moderate mortality. Refugia from MPB outbreaks, at least for now, also exist and correspond to locations that have colder microclimates. The spatially explicit mortality information produced by this project has helped forest managers develop and implement conservation strategies that include both preservation and restoration efforts. Future research aimed at documenting and quantifying the ecological impacts of widespread decline and collapse of this foundation and keystone species is warranted.

Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.