Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban-rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions.

Climatic and Economic Background Determine the Disparities in Urbanites' Expressed Happiness during the Summer Heat.

Climate-change-induced extreme weather events increase heat-related mortality and health risks for urbanites, which may also affect urbanites' expressed happiness (EH) and well-being. However, the links among EH, climate, and socioeconomic factors remain unclear. Here we collected ∼6 million geotagged tweets from 44 Chinese prefecture-level cities based on Sina Weibo and performed a quadratic regression model to explore the relationships between summer heat and EH. A three-stage analysis was developed to examine spatiotemporal heterogeneity and identify factors contributing to disparities in urbanites' EH. Results show that all cities exhibited a similar hump-shaped relationship, with an overall optimal temperature (OT) of 22.8 °C. The estimated OT varied geographically, with 25.3, 23.8, and 20.0 °C from north to south. Moreover, a 1 standard deviation increase in heatwave intensity was associated with a 0.813 (95% CI: 0.177, 1.449) standard deviation decrease in EH. Notably, within the geographic scope of this study, it was observed that urbanites in northern China and economically underdeveloped cities faced significantly lower heat risks during the summer heat. This research provides insight for future studies and practical applications concerning extreme weather events, urbanites' mental health, and sustainable urban development goal.

Seasonal hysteresis of surface urban heat islands.

Temporal dynamics of urban warming have been extensively studied at the diurnal scale, but the impact of background climate on the observed seasonality of surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) remains largely unexplored. On seasonal time scales, the intensity of urban-rural surface temperature differences ([Formula: see text]) exhibits distinctive hysteretic cycles whose shape and looping direction vary across climatic zones. These observations highlight possible delays underlying the dynamics of the coupled urban-biosphere system. However, a general argument explaining the observed hysteretic patterns remains elusive. A coarse-grained model of SUHI coupled with a stochastic soil water balance is developed to demonstrate that the time lags between radiation forcing, air temperature, and rainfall generate a rate-dependent hysteresis, explaining the observed seasonal variations of [Formula: see text] If solar radiation is in phase with water availability, summer conditions cause strong SUHI intensities due to high rural evaporative cooling. Conversely, cities in seasonally dry regions where evapotranspiration is out of phase with radiation show a summertime oasis effect controlled by background climate and vegetation properties. These seasonal patterns of warming and cooling have significant implications for heat mitigation strategies as urban green spaces can reduce [Formula: see text] during summertime, while potentially negative effects of albedo management during winter are mitigated by the seasonality of solar radiation.

The effect of plant water storage on water fluxes within the coupled soil-plant system.

In addition to buffering plants from water stress during severe droughts, plant water storage (PWS) alters many features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of water movement in the soil-plant system. How PWS impacts water dynamics and drought resilience is explored using a multi-layer porous media model. The model numerically resolves soil-plant hydrodynamics by coupling them to leaf-level gas exchange and soil-root interfacial layers. Novel features of the model are the considerations of a coordinated relationship between stomatal aperture variation and whole-system hydraulics and of the effects of PWS and nocturnal transpiration (Fe,night) on hydraulic redistribution (HR) in the soil. The model results suggest that daytime PWS usage and Fe,night generate a residual water potential gradient (Δψp,night) along the plant vascular system overnight. This Δψp,night represents a non-negligible competing sink strength that diminishes the significance of HR. Considering the co-occurrence of PWS usage and HR during a single extended dry-down, a wide range of plant attributes and environmental/soil conditions selected to enhance or suppress plant drought resilience is discussed. When compared with HR, model calculations suggest that increased root water influx into plant conducting-tissues overnight maintains a more favorable water status at the leaf, thereby delaying the onset of drought stress.

Soil-plant-atmosphere conditions regulating convective cloud formation above southeastern US pine plantations.

Loblolly pine trees (Pinus taeda L.) occupy more than 20% of the forested area in the southern United States, represent more than 50% of the standing pine volume in this region, and remove from the atmosphere about 500 g C m-2 per year through net ecosystem exchange. Hence, their significance as a major regional carbon sink can hardly be disputed. What is disputed is whether the proliferation of young plantations replacing old forest in the southern United States will alter key aspects of the hydrologic cycle, including convective rainfall, which is the focus of the present work. Ecosystem fluxes of sensible (Hs) and latent heat (LE) and large-scale, slowly evolving free atmospheric temperature and water vapor content are known to be first-order controls on the formation of convective clouds in the atmospheric boundary layer. These controlling processes are here described by a zero-order analytical model aimed at assessing how plantations of different ages may regulate the persistence and transition of the atmospheric system between cloudy and cloudless conditions. Using the analytical model together with field observations, the roles of ecosystem Hs and LE on convective cloud formation are explored relative to the entrainment of heat and moisture from the free atmosphere. Our results demonstrate that cloudy-cloudless regimes at the land surface are regulated by a nonlinear relation between the Bowen ratio Bo=Hs/LE and root-zone soil water content, suggesting that young/mature pines ecosystems have the ability to recirculate available water (through rainfall predisposition mechanisms). Such nonlinearity was not detected in a much older pine stand, suggesting a higher tolerance to drought but a limited control on boundary layer dynamics. These results enable the generation of hypotheses about the impacts on convective cloud formation driven by afforestation/deforestation and groundwater depletion projected to increase following increased human population in the southeastern United States.

The angiogenic growth of cities.

Describing the space-time evolution of urban population is a fundamental challenge in the science of cities, yet a complete theoretical treatment of the underlying dynamics is still missing. Here, we first reconstruct the evolution of London (UK) over 180 years and show that urban growth consists of an initial phase of diffusion-limited growth, followed by the development of the railway transport network and a consequential shift from central to suburban living. Such dynamics-which are analogous to angiogenesis in biological systems-can be described by a minimalist reaction-diffusion model coupled with economic constraints and an adaptive transport network. We then test the generality of our approach by reproducing the evolution of Sydney, Australia, from 1851 to 2011. We show that the rail system coevolves with urban population, displaying hierarchical characteristics that remain constant over time unless large-scale interventions are put in place to alter the modes of transport. These results demonstrate that transport schemes are first-order controls of long-term urbanization patterns and efforts aimed at creating more sustainable and healthier cities require careful consideration of population-transport feedbacks.

Economic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities.

As the climate warms, increasing heat-related health risks are expected, and can be exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHIs can also offer protection against cold weather, but a clear quantification of their impacts on human health across diverse cities and seasons is still being explored. Here we provide a 500 m resolution assessment of mortality risks associated with UHIs for 85 European cities in 2015-2017. Acute impacts are found during heat extremes, with a 45% median increase in mortality risk associated with UHI, compared to a 7% decrease during cold extremes. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater integrated protective effects. On average, UHI-induced heat-/cold-related mortality is associated with economic impacts of €192/€ - 314 per adult urban inhabitant per year in Europe, comparable to air pollution and transit costs. These findings urge strategies aimed at designing healthier cities to consider the seasonality of UHI impacts, and to account for social costs, their controlling factors, and intra-urban variability.

An ecohydrological journey of 4500 years reveals a stable but threatened precipitation-groundwater recharge relation around Jerusalem.

Groundwater is a key water resource in semiarid and seasonally dry regions around the world, which is replenished by intermittent precipitation events and mediated by vegetation, soil, and regolith properties. Here, a climate reconstruction of 4500 years for the Jerusalem region was used to determine the relation between climate, vegetation, and groundwater recharge. Despite changes in air temperature and vegetation characteristics, simulated recharge remained linearly related to precipitation over the entire analyzed period, with drier decades having lower rates of recharge for a given annual precipitation due to soil memory effects. We show that in recent decades, the lack of changes in the precipitation­groundwater recharge relation results from the compensating responses of vegetation to increasing CO2, i.e., increased leaf area and reduced stomatal conductance. This multicentury relation is expected to be modified by climate change, with changes up to −20% in recharge for unchanged precipitation, potentially jeopardizing water resource availability.

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics.

The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of 'super-spreaders' on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.

Correction: Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217592.].

Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.

A remediation performance model for enhanced metabolic reductive dechlorination of chloroethenes in fractured clay till.

A numerical model of metabolic reductive dechlorination is used to describe the performance of enhanced bioremediation in fractured clay till. The model is developed to simulate field observations of a full scale bioremediation scheme in a fractured clay till and thereby to assess remediation efficiency and timeframe. A relatively simple approach is used to link the fermentation of the electron donor soybean oil to the sequential dechlorination of trichloroethene (TCE) while considering redox conditions and the heterogeneous clay till system (clay till matrix, fractures and sand stringers). The model is tested on lab batch experiments and applied to describe sediment core samples from a TCE-contaminated site. Model simulations compare favorably to field observations and demonstrate that dechlorination may be limited to narrow bioactive zones in the clay matrix around fractures and sand stringers. Field scale simulations show that the injected donor is expected to be depleted after 5 years, and that without donor re-injection contaminant rebound will occur in the high permeability zones and the mass removal will stall at 18%. Long remediation timeframes, if dechlorination is limited to narrow bioactive zones, and the need for additional donor injections to maintain dechlorination activity may limit the efficiency of ERD in low-permeability media. Future work should address the dynamics of the bioactive zones, which is essential to understand for predictions of long term mass removal.