Profiles of travelers to intermediate-high health risk areas following the reopening of borders in the COVID-19 crisis: A clustering approach.

BACKGROUND: The reactivation of international travel in 2021 has created a new scenario in which the profile of the traveler to medium-high health risk areas may well have changed. However, few studies have analyzed this new profile since the reopening of borders in that year. METHODS: We designed an ad hoc questionnaire that was administered face-to-face by our medical team during appointments with 330 travelers in the second half of 2021. Information was collected on the following topics: sociodemographic and socioeconomic status; type of travel and previous travel experience; health status and risk perception (of COVID-19 and tropical infectious diseases). Using all features simultaneously, an unsupervised machine learning approach (k-means) is implemented to characterize groups of travelers. Pairwise chi-squared tests were performed to identify key features that showed statistically significant differences between clusters. RESULTS: The travelers were clustered into seven groups. We associated the clusters with different intensities of perceived risk of acquiring COVID-19 and tropical infectious diseases on the trip. The perceived risk of both diseases was low in the group "middle or lower middle class young inexperienced male tourist" but high in the group "middle or lower middle-class young with children inexperienced business traveler". CONCLUSIONS: Broadening our knowledge of the profiles of travelers to intermediate-high health risk areas would help to tailor the health advice provided by practitioners to their characteristics and type of travel. In a changing health context, the k-means approach supposes a flexible statistical method that calculates travelers' profiles and can be easily adapted to process new information.

Growth, inequality and poverty: a robust relationship?

The consequences of poverty and inequality for growth have long preoccupied academics and policy-makers. This paper revisits the inequality-growth and poverty-growth links. Using a panel of 158 countries between 1960 and 2010, we find that the correlation of growth with poverty is consistently negative: A 10 p.p. decrease in the headcount poverty rate is associated with a subsequent increase in per capita GDP between 0.5 and 1.2% per year. In contrast, the correlation of growth with inequality is empirically fragile-it can be positive or negative, depending on the empirical specification and econometric approach employed. However, the indirect effect of inequality on growth through its correlation with poverty is robustly negative. Closer inspection shows that these results are driven by the sample observations featuring high poverty rates.

Child health inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

We investigate child height inequality and inequality of predicted height in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region by socioeconomic, demographic and geographical factors. We characterize their changes in age-cohorts (from 0-1 up to 4-5 years old) and determine the contribution of each factor to these changes. We extract data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 33 SSA countries covering the period from 2009 to 2016. Our measure of health is the standardized height of children below the age of five, adjusted by the age and gender distribution in each country. We show that height inequality is lower for older children than for their younger peers. However, the share of inequality caused by our set of factors rises along the age distribution in more than 80% of countries. We find that family background (reflected by maternal education and the household wealth), followed by home infrastructures related to water, toilet and cooking facilities, and the region of residence contribute to explaining the differences observed in child health inequality along the age distribution in SSA.

CO2 emissions and energy technologies in Western Europe.

In this paper, we investigate the path to the green transition in Europe. In so doing, we implement an empirical model of dynamic panel data on a sample of sixteen Western European countries over the period 1980 to 2019. The model is consistent with various features of neoclassical growth theory incorporating energy use. Our focus is on the short-run determinants of carbon emissions within that set of countries. We provide evidence that the relationship between economic activity and CO2 emissions is strong in economies where economic booms depend on energy-intensive sectors. Also, the mitigating role of renewable energy technologies is key when energy intensity rebounds. These circumstances may constitute a challenge for the climate transition goals targeted in the EU's Recovery Plan, whose main objective at this very moment is to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Road accidents and business cycles in Spain.

This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.