Associations between declining antibiotic use in primary care in Scotland and hospitalization with infection and patient satisfaction: longitudinal population study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing antibiotic use is central to antimicrobial stewardship, but may have unintended consequences. OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between size of decline in antibiotic prescriptions in general practices and (i) rate of hospitalization for infection and (ii) patient satisfaction. METHODS: Routine data analysis for all general practices in Scotland, quarter one 2012 (Q1 2012) to quarter one 2018 (Q1 2018). Practices were grouped into quartiles of rate of change in prescribing and changes in rates of hospitalization were compared across groups. For satisfaction analysis, associations between practice-level patient satisfaction in 2017-18 (Scottish Health and Care Experience Survey) and prior change in antibiotic prescription were examined. RESULTS: Antibiotic prescriptions overall fell from 194.1 prescriptions/1000 patients in Q1 2012 to 165.3 in Q1 2018 (14.9% reduction). The first quartile of practices had a non-significant increase in prescriptions [change per quarter = 0.22 (95% CI -0.42 to 0.86) prescriptions/1000 patients], compared with large reductions in the other three groups, largest in quartile four: -2.95 (95% CI -3.66 to -2.24) prescriptions/1000 patients/quarter (29.7% reduction overall). In all quartiles, hospitalizations with infection increased. The increase was smallest in quartile four (the biggest reduction in prescriptions) and highest in quartile one (no significant change in prescriptions): 2.18 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.19) versus 3.68 (95% CI 2.64 to 4.73) admissions/100 000 patients/quarter, respectively [difference = - 1.50 (95% CI -2.91 to -0.10)]. There was no statistically significant association between change in antibiotic prescriptions and patient satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Very large reductions in antibiotic prescriptions in Scottish general practices have not been associated with increases in hospitalization with infection or changes in patient satisfaction.

Feedback of Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Care (FAPPC) trial: results of a real-world cluster randomized controlled trial in Scotland, UK.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of general practice-level prescribing feedback on antibiotic prescribing in a real-world pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Three hundred and forty general practices in four territorial Health Boards in NHS Scotland were randomized in Quarter 1, 2016 to receive four quarterly antibiotic-prescribing feedback reports or not, from Quarter 2, 2016 to Quarter 1, 2017. Reports included different clinical topics, benchmarking against national and health board rates, and behavioural messaging with improvement actions. The primary outcome was total antibiotic prescribing rate. There were 16 secondary prescribing outcomes and 5 hospital admission outcomes (potential adverse effects of reduced prescribing). The main evaluation timepoint was 1 year after the final report (Quarter 1, 2018), with an additional evaluation in the quarter after the final report (Quarter 2, 2017). Routine administrative NHS data were used to generate the feedback reports and analyse the effects. RESULTS: Total antibiotic prescribing rates were lower at the main evaluation timepoint in both intervention (1.83 versus baseline 1.93 prescriptions/1000 patients/day) and control (1.90 versus baseline 1.98) practices, with no evidence of intervention effect [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) 0.98 (95% CI 0.94-1.02; P = 0.35)]. At the additional timepoint, adjusted total antibiotic prescribing rates were 1.67 and 1.73 prescriptions/1000 patients/day, with evidence of a small intervention effect, ARR 0.99 (0.98-1.00; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: This well-designed, practice-level antibiotic-prescribing feedback had limited evidence of additional effects in the context of decreasing antibiotic prescribing and an established national stewardship programme.

Incidence, Microbiology, and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With Infective Endocarditis.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in management, infective endocarditis remains associated with high mortality and morbidity. We describe temporal changes in the incidence, microbiology, and outcomes of infective endocarditis and the effect of changes in national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines on incident infective endocarditis. METHODS: Using a Scotland-wide, individual-level linkage approach, all patients hospitalized with infective endocarditis from 1990 to 2014 were identified and linked to national microbiology, prescribing, and morbidity and mortality datasets. Linked data were used to evaluate trends in the crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence and outcomes of infective endocarditis hospitalizations. From 2008, microbiology data and associated outcomes adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidity were also analyzed. An interrupted time series analysis was performed to evaluate incidence before and after changes to national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines. RESULTS: There were 7638 hospitalizations (65±17 years, 51% females) with infective endocarditis. The estimated crude hospitalization rate increased from 5.3/100 000 (95% CI, 4.8-5.9) to 8.6/100 000 (95% CI, 8.1-9.1) between 1990 and 1995 but remained stable thereafter. There was no change in crude incidence following the 2008 change in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines (relative risk of change 1.06 [95% CI, 0.94-1.20]). The incidence rate in patients >80 years of age doubled from 1990 to 2014 (17.7/100 000 [95% CI, 13.4-23.3] to 37.9/100 000 [95% CI, 31.5-45.5]). The predicted 1-year age- and comorbidity-adjusted case fatality rate for a 65-year-old patient decreased in women (27.3% [95% CI, 24.6-30.2] to 23.7% [95% CI, 21.1-26.6]) and men (30.7% [95% CI, 27.7-33.8] to 26.8% [95% CI, 24.0-29.7]) from 1990 to 2014. Blood culture data were available from 2008 (n=2267/7638, 30%), with positive blood cultures recorded in 42% (950/2267). Staphylococcus (403/950, 42.4%) and streptococcus (337/950, 35.5%) species were most common. Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus had the highest 1-year mortality (adjusted odds ratio 4.34 [95% CI, 3.12-6.05] and 3.41 [95% CI, 2.04-5.70], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, the crude incidence of infective endocarditis has remained stable. However, the incidence rate has doubled in the elderly. Positive blood cultures were observed in less than half of patients, with Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus bacteremia associated with worse outcomes.

The burden of psychotropic and anticholinergic medicines use in care homes: population-based analysis in 147 care homes.

BACKGROUND: older people living in care-homes are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of psychotropic and anticholinergic drugs. METHODS: anonymised dispensed prescription data from all 4,478 residents aged ≥ 60 years in 147 care-homes in two Scottish health boards were analysed. Psychotropic medicines examined were antipsychotics, antidepressants, hypnotic/anxiolytics, opioids and gabapentinoids. Anticholinergic burden was measured using the modified anticholinergic risk scale (mARS). Variation between care-homes and associations with individual and care-home characteristics were examined using multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS: 63.5% of residents were prescribed at least one psychotropic drug, and 27.0% two or more, most commonly antidepressants (41.6%), opioids (20.3%), hypnotic/anxiolytics (16.9%) and antipsychotics (16.7%). 48.1% were prescribed an anticholinergic drug, and 12.1% had high anticholinergic burden (mARS ≥ 3). Variation between care-homes was high for antipsychotics (intra-cluster correlation coefficient [ICC] 8.2%) and hypnotics/anxiolytics (ICC = 7.3%), and moderate for antidepressants (ICC = 4.7%) and anticholinergics (ICC = 2.8%). Prescribing of all drugs was lower in the oldest old. People with dementia were more likely to be prescribed antipsychotics (adjusted OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.23-1.71) but less likely to be prescribed anticholinergics (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.51-0.74). Prescribing of antipsychotics was higher in Tayside (aOR = 1.52, 95%CI 1.20-1.92), whereas prescribing of antidepressants (particularly tricyclic-related) was lower (aOR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.56-0.79). There was no association with care-home regulator quality scores. CONCLUSION: care-home residents have high psychotropic and anticholinergic burden, with considerable variation between care-homes that is not related to existing measures of quality of care. Research to better understand variation between care-homes and the interaction with local prescribing cultures is needed.

A behavioural approach to specifying interventions: what insights can be gained for the reporting and implementation of interventions to reduce antibiotic use in hospitals?

BACKGROUND: Reducing unnecessary antibiotic exposure is a key strategy in reducing the development and selection of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Hospital antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) interventions are inherently complex, often requiring multiple healthcare professionals to change multiple behaviours at multiple timepoints along the care pathway. Inaction can arise when roles and responsibilities are unclear. A behavioural perspective can offer insights to maximize the chances of successful implementation. OBJECTIVES: To apply a behavioural framework [the Target Action Context Timing Actors (TACTA) framework] to existing evidence about hospital AMS interventions to specify which key behavioural aspects of interventions are detailed. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and interrupted time series (ITS) studies with a focus on reducing unnecessary exposure to antibiotics were identified from the most recent Cochrane review of interventions to improve hospital AMS. The TACTA framework was applied to published intervention reports to assess the extent to which key details were reported about what behaviour should be performed, who is responsible for doing it and when, where, how often and with whom it should be performed. RESULTS: The included studies (n = 45; 31 RCTs and 14 ITS studies with 49 outcome measures) reported what should be done, where and to whom. However, key details were missing about who should act (45%) and when (22%). Specification of who should act was missing in 79% of 15 interventions to reduce duration of treatment in continuing-care wards. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of precise specification within AMS interventions limits the generalizability and reproducibility of evidence, hampering efforts to implement AMS interventions in practice.

Changes in resistance among coliform bacteraemia associated with a primary care antimicrobial stewardship intervention: A population-based interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: Primary care antimicrobial stewardship interventions can improve antimicrobial prescribing, but there is less evidence that they reduce rates of resistant infection. This study examined changes in broad-spectrum antimicrobial prescribing in the community and resistance in people admitted to hospital with community-associated coliform bacteraemia associated with a primary care stewardship intervention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Segmented regression analysis of data on all patients registered with a general practitioner in the National Health Service (NHS) Tayside region in the east of Scotland, UK, from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015 was performed, examining associations between a primary care antimicrobial stewardship intervention in 2009 and primary care prescribing of fluoroquinolones, cephalosporins, and co-amoxiclav and resistance to the same three antimicrobials/classes among community-associated coliform bacteraemia. Prescribing outcomes were the rate per 1,000 population prescribed each antimicrobial/class per quarter. Resistance outcomes were proportion of community-associated (first 2 days of hospital admission) coliform (Escherichia coli, Proteus spp., or Klebsiella spp.) bacteraemia among adult (18+ years) patients resistant to each antimicrobial/class. 11.4% of 3,442,205 oral antimicrobial prescriptions dispensed in primary care over the study period were for targeted antimicrobials. There were large, statistically significant reductions in prescribing at 1 year postintervention that were larger by 3 years postintervention when the relative reduction was -68.8% (95% CI -76.3 to -62.1) and the absolute reduction -6.3 (-7.6 to -5.2) people exposed per 1,000 population per quarter for fluoroquinolones; relative -74.0% (-80.3 to -67.9) and absolute reduction -6.1 (-7.2 to -5.2) for cephalosporins; and relative -62.3% (-66.9 to -58.1) and absolute reduction -6.8 (-7.7 to -6.0) for co-amoxiclav, all compared to their prior trends. There were 2,143 eligible bacteraemia episodes involving 2,004 patients over the study period (mean age 73.7 [SD 14.8] years; 51.4% women). There was no increase in community-associated coliform bacteraemia admissions associated with reduced community broad-spectrum antimicrobial use. Resistance to targeted antimicrobials reduced by 3.5 years postintervention compared to prior trends, but this was not statistically significant for co-amoxiclav. Relative and absolute changes were -34.7% (95% CI -52.3 to -10.6) and -63.5 (-131.8 to -12.8) resistant bacteraemia per 1,000 bacteraemia per quarter for fluoroquinolones; -48.3% (-62.7 to -32.3) and -153.1 (-255.7 to -77.0) for cephalosporins; and -17.8% (-47.1 to 20.8) and -63.6 (-206.4 to 42.4) for co-amoxiclav, respectively. Overall, there was reversal of a previously rising rate of fluoroquinolone resistance and flattening of previously rising rates of cephalosporin and co-amoxiclav resistance. The limitations of this study include that associations are not definitive evidence of causation and that potential effects of underlying secular trends in the postintervention period and/or of other interventions occurring simultaneously cannot be definitively excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study in Scotland, compared to prior trends, there were very large reductions in community broad-spectrum antimicrobial use associated with the stewardship intervention. In contrast, changes in resistance among coliform bacteraemia were more modest. Prevention of resistance through judicious use of new antimicrobials may be more effective than trying to reverse resistance that has become established.

Risk of acute kidney injury following community prescription of antibiotics: self-controlled case series.

BACKGROUND: Development of acute kidney injury (AKI) following the use of antibiotics such as sulphonamides, trimethoprim and aminoglycosides is a frequently described phenomenon. More recently, an association between fluoroquinolone use and AKI has been suggested. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of AKI as an unintended consequence of commonly prescribed antibiotics in a large community cohort using a method that fully adjusts for underlying patient characteristics, including potential unmeasured confounders. METHODS: A self-controlled case study was conducted and included all individuals aged 18 years and over in the Tayside region of Scotland who had a serum creatinine measured between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2012. AKI episodes were defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes definition. Data on oral community-prescribed antibiotics (penicillins, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, macrolides and nitrofurantoin) were collected for all individuals. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for AKI associated with antibiotic exposure versus time periods without antibiotic exposure were calculated. RESULTS: Combined use of sulphonamides, trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin rose by 47% and incidence of community-acquired AKI rose by 16% between 2008 and 2012. During the study period 12 777 individuals developed 14 900 episodes of AKI in the community, of which 68% was AKI Stage 1, 16% Stage 2 and 16% Stage 3. The IRR of AKI during any antibiotic use was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.23], and this was highest during sulphonamides or trimethoprim use; IRR 3.07 (95% CI 2.81-3.35). Fluoroquinolone and nitrofurantoin use was not associated with a significantly increased rate of AKI; IRR 1.13 (95% CI 0.94-1.35) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.91-1.50), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of AKI rose by 16% between 2008 and 2012. In the same period the use of sulphonamides, trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin increased by 47%. A significant increased risk of AKI was seen with the use of sulphonamides and trimethoprim, but not with fluoroquinolones or nitrofurantoin.

Identifying care-home residents in routine healthcare datasets: a diagnostic test accuracy study of five methods.

Background: there is no established method to identify care-home residents in routine healthcare datasets. Methods matching patient's addresses to known care-home addresses have been proposed in the UK, but few have been formally evaluated. Study design: prospective diagnostic test accuracy study. Methods: four independent samples of 5,000 addresses from Community Health Index (CHI) population registers were sampled for two NHS Scotland Health Boards on 1 April 2017, with one sample of adults aged ≥65 years and one of all residents. To derive the reference standard, all 20,000 addresses were manually adjudicated as 'care-home address' or not. The performance of five methods (NHS Scotland assigned CHI Institution Flag, exact address matching, postcode matching, Phonics and Markov) was evaluated compared to the reference standard. Results: the CHI Institution Flag had a high PPV 97-99% in all four test sets, but poorer sensitivity 55-89%. Exact address matching failed in every case. Postcode matching had higher sensitivity than the CHI flag 78-90%, but worse PPV 77-85%. Area under the receiver operating curve values for Phonics and Markov scores were 0.86-0.95 and 0.93-0.98, respectively. Phonics score with cut-off ≥13 had PPV 92-97% with sensitivity 72-87%. Markov PPVs were 90-95% with sensitivity 69-90% with cut-off ≥29.6. Conclusions: more complex address matching methods greatly improve identification compared to the existing NHS Scotland flag or postcode matching, although no method achieved both sensitivity and positive predictive value > 95%. Choice of method and cut-offs will be determined by the specific needs of researchers and practitioners.

Risk factors for resistance and MDR in community urine isolates: population-level analysis using the NHS Scotland Infection Intelligence Platform.

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are common. Antibiotic treatment is usually empirical, with the risk of under-treatment of resistant infections. OBJECTIVES: To characterize risk factors for antibiotic-resistant community urine isolates using routine record-linked health data. METHODS: Within the NHS Scotland Infection Intelligence Platform, national surveillance patient-level data on community urine isolates (January 2012-June 2015) were linked to hospital activity and community prescribing data. Associations between age, gender, comorbidity, care home residence, previous hospitalizations, antibiotic exposure and resistant (any antibiotic) or MDR (≥1 antibiotic from ≥3 categories) urinary isolates were quantified using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 40984 isolates, 28% were susceptible, 45% were resistant and 27% were MDR. Exposure to ≥ 4 different antibiotics in the prior 6 months increased MDR risk (OR 6.81, 95% CI 5.73-8.11). MDR was associated with ≥29 DDD cumulative exposure, in the prior 6 months, for any antibiotic (OR 6.54, 95% CI 5.88-7.27), nitrofurantoin (OR 8.56, 95% CI 6.56-11.18) and trimethoprim (OR 14.61, 95% CI 10.53-20.27). Associations persisted for 10-12 months for nitrofurantoin (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.93-2.76) and trimethoprim (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.57-2.09). Increasing age, comorbidity, previous hospitalization and care home residence were independently associated with MDR. For resistant isolates the factors were the same, but with weaker associations. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, we have demonstrated, using national capability at scale, the risk of MDR in community urine isolates for the first time and quantified the cumulative and sustained impact of antibiotic exposure. These data will inform the development of decision support tools for UTI treatment.

Impact of antimicrobial stewardship interventions on Clostridium difficile infection and clinical outcomes: segmented regression analyses.

Background: Antimicrobial exposure is associated with increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), but the impact of prescribing interventions on CDI and other outcomes is less clear. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of an antimicrobial stewardship intervention targeting high-risk antimicrobials (HRA), implemented in October 2008, and to compare the findings with similar studies from a systematic review. Methods: All patients admitted to Medicine and Surgery in Ninewells Hospital from October 2006 to September 2010 were included. Intervention effects on HRA use (dispensed DDD), CDI cases and mortality rates, per 1000 admissions per month, were analysed separately in Medicine and Surgery using segmented regression of interrupted time series (ITS) data. Data from comparable published studies were reanalysed using the same method. Results: Six months post-intervention, there were relative reductions in HRA use of 33% (95% CI 11-56) in Medicine and 32% (95% CI 19-46) in Surgery. At 12 months, there was an estimated reduction in CDI of 7.0 cases/1000 admissions [relative change -24% (95% CI - 55 to 6)] in Medicine, but no change in Surgery {estimated 0.1 fewer cases/1000 admissions [-2% (95% CI - 116 to 112)]}. Mortality reduced throughout the study period, unaffected by the intervention. In all six comparable studies, HRA use reduced significantly, but reductions in CDI rates were only statistically significant in two and none measured mortality. Pre-intervention CDI rates and trends influenced the intervention effect. Conclusions: Despite large reductions in HRA prescribing and reductions in CDI, demonstrating real-world impact of stewardship interventions remains challenging.

Effects of peri-operative nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on post-operative kidney function for adults with normal kidney function.

BACKGROUND: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) provide effective analgesia during the post-operative period but can cause acute kidney injury (AKI) when used peri-operatively (at or around the time of surgery). This is an update of a Cochrane review published in 2007. OBJECTIVES: This review looked at the effect of NSAIDs used in the peri-operative period on post-operative kidney function in patients with normal kidney function. SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Kidney and Transplant's Specialised Register to 4 January 2018 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Specialised Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs (RCTs in which allocation to treatment was obtained by alternation, use of alternate medical records, date of birth or other predictable methods) looking at the use of NSAIDs versus placebo for the treatment of post-operative pain in patients with normal kidney function were included. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data extraction was carried out independently by two authors as was assessment of risk of bias. Disagreements were resolved by a third author. Dichotomous outcomes are reported as relative risk (RR) and continuous outcomes as mean difference (MD) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Meta-analyses were used to assess the outcomes of AKI, change in serum creatinine (SCr), urine output, renal replacement therapy (RRT), death (all causes) and length of hospital stay. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 26 studies (8835 participants). Risk of bias was high in 17, unclear in 6and low in three studies. There was high risk of attrition bias in six studies.Only two studies measured AKI. The use of NSAIDs had uncertain effects on the incidence of AKI compared to placebo (7066 participants: RR 1.79, 95% CI 0.40 to 7.96; I2 = 59%; very low certainty evidence). One study was stopped early by the data monitoring committee due to increased rates of AKI in the NSAID group. Moreover, both of these studies were examining NSAIDs for indications other than analgesia and therefore utilised relatively low doses.Compared to placebo, NSAIDs may slightly increase serum SCr (15 studies, 794 participants: MD 3.23 µmol/L, 95% CI -0.80 to 7.26; I2 = 63%; low certainty evidence). Studies displayed moderate to high heterogeneity and had multiple exclusion criteria including age and so were not representative of patients undergoing surgery. Three of these studies excluded patients if their creatinine rose post-operatively.NSAIDs may make little or no difference to post-operative urine output compared to placebo (6 studies, 149 participants: SMD -0.02, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.27). No reliable conclusions could be drawn from these studies due to the differing units of measurements and measurement time points.It is uncertain whether NSAIDs leads to the need for RRT because the certainty of this evidence is very low (2 studies, 7056 participants: RR 1.57, 95% CI 0.49 to 5.07; I2 = 26%); there were few events and the results were inconsistent.It is uncertain whether NSAIDs lead to more deaths (2 studies, 312 participants: RR 1.44, 95% CI 0.19 to 11.12; I2 = 38%) or increased the length of hospital stay (3 studies, 410 participants: MD 0.12 days, 95% CI -0.48 to 0.72; I2 = 24%). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Overall NSAIDs had uncertain effects on the risk of post-operative AKI, may slightly increase post-operative SCr, and it is uncertain whether NSAIDs lead to the need for RRT, death or increases the length of hospital stay. The available data therefore does not confirm the safety of NSAIDs in patients undergoing surgery. Further larger studies using the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes definition for AKI including patients with co-morbidities are required to confirm these findings. .

A framework for ensuring a balanced accounting of the impact of antimicrobial stewardship interventions.

Drawing on a Cochrane systematic review, this paper examines the relatively limited range of outcomes measured in published evaluations of antimicrobial stewardship interventions (ASIs) in hospitals. We describe a structured framework for considering the range of consequences that ASIs can have, in terms of their desirability and the extent to which they were expected when planning an ASI: expected, desirable consequences (intervention goals); expected, undesirable consequences (intervention trade-offs); unexpected, undesirable consequences (unpleasant surprises); and unexpected, desirable consequences (pleasant surprises). Of 49 randomized controlled trials identified by the Cochrane review, 28 (57%) pre-specified increased length of stay and/or mortality as potential trade-offs of ASI, with measurement intended to provide reassurance about safety. In actuality, some studies found unexpected decreases in length of stay (a pleasant surprise). In contrast, only 11 (10%) of 110 interrupted time series studies included any information about unintended consequences, with 10 examining unexpected, undesirable outcomes (unpleasant surprises) using case-control, qualitative or cohort designs. Overall, a large proportion of the ASIs reported in the literature only assess impact on their targeted process goals-antimicrobial prescribing-with limited examination of other potential outcomes, including microbial and clinical outcomes. Achieving a balanced accounting of the impact of an ASI requires careful consideration of expected undesirable effects (potential trade-offs) from the outset, and more consideration of unexpected effects after implementation (both pleasant and unpleasant surprises, although the latter will often be more important). The proposed framework supports the systematic consideration of all types of consequences of improvement before and after implementation.

Building a national Infection Intelligence Platform to improve antimicrobial stewardship and drive better patient outcomes: the Scottish experience.

Background: The better use of new and emerging data streams to understand the epidemiology of infectious disease and to inform and evaluate antimicrobial stewardship improvement programmes is paramount in the global fight against antimicrobial resistance. Objectives: To create a national informatics platform that synergizes the wealth of disjointed, infection-related health data, building an intelligence capability that allows rapid enquiry, generation of new knowledge and feedback to clinicians and policy makers. Methods: A multi-stakeholder community, led by the Scottish Antimicrobial Prescribing Group, secured government funding to deliver a national programme of work centred on three key aspects: (i) technical platform development with record linkage capability across multiple datasets; (ii) a proportionate governance approach to enhance responsiveness; and (iii) generation of new evidence to guide clinical practice. Results: The National Health Service Scotland Infection Intelligence Platform (IIP) is now hosted within the national health data repository to assure resilience and sustainability. New technical solutions include simplified 'data views' of complex, linked datasets and embedded statistical programs to enhance capability. These developments have enabled responsiveness, flexibility and robustness in conducting population-based studies including a focus on intended and unintended effects of antimicrobial stewardship interventions and quantification of infection risk factors and clinical outcomes. Conclusions: We have completed the build and test phase of IIP, overcoming the technical and governance challenges, and produced new capability in infection informatics, generating new evidence for improved clinical practice. This provides a foundation for expansion and opportunity for global collaborations.

Has primary care antimicrobial use really been increasing? Comparison of changes in different prescribing measures for a complete geographic population 1995-2014.

Objectives: To elucidate how population trends in total antimicrobials dispensed in the community translate into individual exposure. Methods: Retrospective, population-based observational study of all antimicrobial prescribing in a Scottish region in financial years 1995, 2000 and 2005-14. Analysis of temporal changes in all antimicrobials and specific antimicrobials measured in: WHO DDD per 1000 population; prescriptions per 1000 population; proportion of population with ≥1 prescription; mean number of prescriptions per person receiving any; mean DDD per prescription. Results: Antimicrobial DDD increased between 1995 and 2014, from 5651 to 6987 per 1000 population [difference 1336 (95% CI 1309-1363)]. Prescriptions per 1000 fell (from 821 to 667, difference -154, -151 to -157), as did the proportion prescribed any antimicrobial [from 39.3% to 30.8% (-8.5, -8.4 to -8.6)]. Rising mean DDD per prescription, from 6.88 in 1995 to 10.47 in 2014 (3.59, 3.55-3.63), drove rising total DDD. In the under-5s, every measure fell over time (68.2% fall in DDD per 1000; 60.7% fall in prescriptions per 1000). Among 5-64 year olds, prescriptions per 1000 were lowest in 2014 but among older people, despite a reduction since 2010, the 2014 rate was still higher than in 2000. Trends in individual antimicrobials provide some explanation for overall trends. Conclusions: Rising antimicrobial volumes up to 2011 were mainly due to rising DDD per prescription. Trends in dispensed drug volumes do not readily translate into information on individual exposure, which is more relevant for adverse consequences including emergence of resistance.

Cumulative and temporal associations between antimicrobial prescribing and community-associated Clostridium difficile infection: population-based case-control study using administrative data.

Background: Community-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CA-CDI; defined as cases without prior hospitalization in the previous 12 weeks who were either tested outside of hospital or tested within 2 days of admission to hospital) is a major public health problem. This study estimates the magnitude of the association between temporal and cumulative prescribing of antimicrobials in primary care and CA-CDI. Methods: Three national patient-level datasets, covering CDI cases, community prescriptions and hospitalizations, were linked by the NHS Scotland unique patient identifier, the Community Health Index (CHI). All validated cases of CDI from August 2010 to July 2013 were extracted and up to six population-based controls were matched to each case from the CHI register for Scotland. Statistical analysis used conditional logistic regression. Results: The 1446 unique cases of CA-CDI were linked with 7964 age-, sex- and location-matched controls. Cumulative exposure to any antimicrobial in the previous 6 months has a monotonic dose-response association with CA-CDI. Individuals with more than 28 DDDs to any antimicrobial (19.9% of cases) had an OR of 4.4 (95% CI 3.4-5.6) compared with those unexposed. Individuals exposed to 29+ DDDs of high-risk antimicrobials (cephalosporins, clindamycin, co-amoxiclav or fluoroquinolones) had an OR of 17.9 (95% CI 7.6-42.2). Elevated CA-CDI risk following high-risk antimicrobial exposure was greatest in the first month (OR = 12.5, 95% CI 8.9-17.4), but was still present 4-6 months later (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.7-3.9). Cases exposed to 29+ DDDs had prescription patterns more consistent with repeated therapeutic courses, using different antimicrobials, than long-term prophylactic use. Conclusions: This analysis demonstrated temporal and dose-response associations between CA-CDI risk and antimicrobials, with an impact of exposure to high-risk antimicrobials remaining 4-6 months later.

Oral and Topical Antibiotics for Clinically Infected Eczema in Children: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial in Ambulatory Care.

PURPOSE: Eczema may flare because of bacterial infection, but evidence supporting antibiotic treatment is of low quality. We aimed to determine the effect of oral and topical antibiotics in addition to topical emollient and corticosteroids in children with clinically infected eczema. METHODS: We employed a 3-arm, blinded, randomized controlled trial in UK ambulatory care. Children with clinical, non-severely infected eczema were randomized to receive oral and topical placebos (control), oral antibiotic (flucloxacillin) and topical placebo, or topical antibiotic (fusidic acid) and oral placebo, for 1 week. We compared Patient Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) scores at 2 weeks using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). RESULTS: We randomized 113 children (40 to control, 36 to oral antibiotic, and 37 to topical antibiotic). Mean (SD) baseline Patient Oriented Eczema Measure scores were 13.4 (5.1) for the control group, 14.6 (5.3) for the oral antibiotic group, and 16.9 (5.5) for the topical antibiotic group. At baseline, 104 children (93%) had 1 or more of the following findings: weeping, crusting, pustules, or painful skin. Mean (SD) POEM scores at 2 weeks were 6.2 (6.0) for control, 8.3 (7.3) for the oral antibiotic group, and 9.3 (6.2) for the topical antibiotic group. Controlling for baseline POEM score, neither oral nor topical antibiotics produced a significant difference in mean (95% CI) POEM scores (1.5 [-1.4 to 4.4] and 1.5 [-1.6 to 4.5] respectively). There were no significant differences in adverse effects and no serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: We found rapid resolution in response to topical steroid and emollient treatment and ruled out a clinically meaningful benefit from the addition of either oral or topical antibiotics. Children seen in ambulatory care with mild clinically infected eczema do not need treatment with antibiotics.

Interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for hospital inpatients.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a major public health problem. Infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are associated with prolonged hospital stay and death compared with infections caused by susceptible bacteria. Appropriate antibiotic use in hospitals should ensure effective treatment of patients with infection and reduce unnecessary prescriptions. We updated this systematic review to evaluate the impact of interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effectiveness and safety of interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of two intervention functions: restriction and enablement. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, and Embase. We searched for additional studies using the bibliographies of included articles and personal files. The last search from which records were evaluated and any studies identified incorporated into the review was January 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies (NRS). We included three non-randomised study designs to measure behavioural and clinical outcomes and analyse variation in the effects: non- randomised trials (NRT), controlled before-after (CBA) studies and interrupted time series (ITS) studies. For this update we also included three additional NRS designs (case control, cohort, and qualitative studies) to identify unintended consequences. Interventions included any professional or structural interventions as defined by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group. We defined restriction as 'using rules to reduce the opportunity to engage in the target behaviour (or increase the target behaviour by reducing the opportunity to engage in competing behaviours)'. We defined enablement as 'increasing means/reducing barriers to increase capability or opportunity'. The main comparison was between intervention and no intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors extracted data and assessed study risk of bias. We performed meta-analysis and meta-regression of RCTs and meta-regression of ITS studies. We classified behaviour change functions for all interventions in the review, including those studies in the previously published versions. We analysed dichotomous data with a risk difference (RD). We assessed certainty of evidence with GRADE criteria. MAIN RESULTS: This review includes 221 studies (58 RCTs, and 163 NRS). Most studies were from North America (96) or Europe (87). The remaining studies were from Asia (19), South America (8), Australia (8), and the East Asia (3). Although 62% of RCTs were at a high risk of bias, the results for the main review outcomes were similar when we restricted the analysis to studies at low risk of bias.More hospital inpatients were treated according to antibiotic prescribing policy with the intervention compared with no intervention based on 29 RCTs of predominantly enablement interventions (RD 15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 14% to 16%; 23,394 participants; high-certainty evidence). This represents an increase from 43% to 58% .There were high levels of heterogeneity of effect size but the direction consistently favoured intervention.The duration of antibiotic treatment decreased by 1.95 days (95% CI 2.22 to 1.67; 14 RCTs; 3318 participants; high-certainty evidence) from 11.0 days. Information from non-randomised studies showed interventions to be associated with improvement in prescribing according to antibiotic policy in routine clinical practice, with 70% of interventions being hospital-wide compared with 31% for RCTs. The risk of death was similar between intervention and control groups (11% in both arms), indicating that antibiotic use can likely be reduced without adversely affecting mortality (RD 0%, 95% CI -1% to 0%; 28 RCTs; 15,827 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotic stewardship interventions probably reduce length of stay by 1.12 days (95% CI 0.7 to 1.54 days; 15 RCTs; 3834 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). One RCT and six NRS raised concerns that restrictive interventions may lead to delay in treatment and negative professional culture because of breakdown in communication and trust between infection specialists and clinical teams (low-certainty evidence).Both enablement and restriction were independently associated with increased compliance with antibiotic policies, and enablement enhanced the effect of restrictive interventions (high-certainty evidence). Enabling interventions that included feedback were probably more effective than those that did not (moderate-certainty evidence).There was very low-certainty evidence about the effect of the interventions on reducing Clostridium difficile infections (median -48.6%, interquartile range -80.7% to -19.2%; 7 studies). This was also the case for resistant gram-negative bacteria (median -12.9%, interquartile range -35.3% to 25.2%; 11 studies) and resistant gram-positive bacteria (median -19.3%, interquartile range -50.1% to +23.1%; 9 studies). There was too much variance in microbial outcomes to reliably assess the effect of change in antibiotic use. Heterogeneity of intervention effect on prescribing outcomesWe analysed effect modifiers in 29 RCTs and 91 ITS studies. Enablement and restriction were independently associated with a larger effect size (high-certainty evidence). Feedback was included in 4 (17%) of 23 RCTs and 20 (47%) of 43 ITS studies of enabling interventions and was associated with greater intervention effect. Enablement was included in 13 (45%) of 29 ITS studies with restrictive interventions and enhanced intervention effect. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found high-certainty evidence that interventions are effective in increasing compliance with antibiotic policy and reducing duration of antibiotic treatment. Lower use of antibiotics probably does not increase mortality and likely reduces length of stay. Additional trials comparing antibiotic stewardship with no intervention are unlikely to change our conclusions. Enablement consistently increased the effect of interventions, including those with a restrictive component. Although feedback further increased intervention effect, it was used in only a minority of enabling interventions. Interventions were successful in safely reducing unnecessary antibiotic use in hospitals, despite the fact that the majority did not use the most effective behaviour change techniques. Consequently, effective dissemination of our findings could have considerable health service and policy impact. Future research should instead focus on targeting treatment and assessing other measures of patient safety, assess different stewardship interventions, and explore the barriers and facilitators to implementation. More research is required on unintended consequences of restrictive interventions.

Reduction in post-operative acute kidney injury following a change in antibiotic prophylaxis policy for orthopaedic surgery: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence has shown that a prophylactic antibiotic regimen of flucloxacillin and gentamicin for orthopaedic surgery was associated with increased rates of post-operative acute kidney injury (AKI). This resulted in changes in the national antibiotic policy recommendation for orthopaedic surgical prophylaxis. This study aimed to assess whether this change from flucloxacillin and gentamicin to co-amoxiclav was associated with changes in the rates of AKI and Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: An observational study and interrupted time series analyses were used to assess rates of post-operative AKI separately in patients undergoing neck of femur (NOF) repair and other orthopaedic operations that required antibiotic prophylaxis. Incidence rate ratios were used to evaluate changes in CDI rates. RESULTS: Following the change in policy, from flucloxacillin and gentamicin to co-amoxiclav, there was a relative change in rates of post-operative AKI of -63% (95% CI -77% to -49%) at 18 months in the other orthopaedic operations group. In the NOF repair group, there was no change in the rate of post-operative AKI [-10% (95% CI -35%-15%)] at 18 months. The incident rate ratio for CDI in the other orthopaedic operations group was 0.29 (95% CI 0.09-0.96) and in the NOF repair group was 0.76 (95% CI 0.28-2.08). CONCLUSIONS: The use of co-amoxiclav for antibiotic prophylaxis in orthopaedic surgery was associated with a decreased rate of post-operative AKI compared with flucloxacillin and gentamicin and was not associated with increased rates of CDI.

Hospital-acquired pneumonia incidence and diagnosis in older patients.

BACKGROUND: hospital-acquired pneumonia poses a hazard to older people who are hospitalised, yet few data exist on the incidence or risk factors in non-intensive care patients. This study aimed to determine the incidence of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in a sample of hospitalised older people. METHODS: prospective survey of hospitalised older patients (>65 years) at a single centre over a 12-month period. Casenote and chart data were collected on acute medical, orthopaedic and Medicine for the Elderly wards. HAP was defined in accordance with the European and Scottish National Prevalence Survey 2011 definition. Key analyses were incidence of clinically suspected and case definition clinically confirmed HAP. RESULTS: one thousand three hundred and two patients were included in the analysis. Five hundred and thirty-nine (41%) were male; mean age was 82 years (SD 8). Median length of hospital stay was 14 days (IQR 20). One hundred and fifty-seven episodes of HAP were clinically suspected in 143 patients (10.9% of admissions), but only 83 episodes in 76 patients met the diagnostic criteria (5.8% of admissions). The risk of HAP was 0.3% per day in hospital. Reasons for failure to meet the diagnostic criteria in 75 cases were lack of radiographic evidence in 60/75; lack of evidence of inflammation in 42/75, and lack of respiratory signs or symptoms in 13/75; 35/75 (47%) of cases lacked evidence in two or more domains. CONCLUSION: HAP is common but over-diagnosed in older hospitalised patients.

The health and economic burden of bloodstream infections caused by antimicrobial-susceptible and non-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus aureus in European hospitals, 2010 and 2011: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study including 606,649 acute inpatient episodes at 10 European hospitals in 2010 and 2011 to estimate the impact of antimicrobial resistance on hospital mortality, excess length of stay (LOS) and cost. Bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (3GCRE), meticillin-susceptible (MSSA) and -resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) increased the daily risk of hospital death (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.80; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-2.42, HR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.49-2.20 and HR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.66-3.51, respectively) and prolonged LOS (9.3 days; 95% CI: 9.2-9.4, 11.5 days; 95% CI: 11.5-11.6 and 13.3 days; 95% CI: 13.2-13.4, respectively). BSI with third-generation cephalosporin-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae (3GCSE) significantly increased LOS (5.9 days; 95% CI: 5.8-5.9) but not hazard of death (1.16; 95% CI: 0.98-1.36). 3GCRE significantly increased the hazard of death (1.63; 95% CI: 1.13-2.35), excess LOS (4.9 days; 95% CI: 1.1-8.7) and cost compared with susceptible strains, whereas meticillin resistance did not. The annual cost of 3GCRE BSI was higher than of MRSA BSI. While BSI with S. aureus had greater impact on mortality, excess LOS and cost than Enterobacteriaceae per infection, the impact of antimicrobial resistance was greater for Enterobacteriaceae.