Plasma Soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Concentrations and Clinical Events After Hospitalization: Findings From the ASSESS-AKI and ARID Studies.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The role of plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 in the prognosis of clinical events after hospitalization with or without acute kidney injury (AKI) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Hospital survivors from the ASSESS-AKI (Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury) and ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) studies with and without AKI during the index hospitalization who had baseline serum samples for biomarker measurements. PREDICTORS: We measured sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 from plasma samples obtained 3 months after discharge. OUTCOMES: The associations of biomarkers with longitudinal kidney disease incidence and progression, heart failure, and death were evaluated. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 1,474 participants with plasma biomarker measurements, 19% had kidney disease progression, 14% had later heart failure, and 21% died during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. For the kidney outcome, the adjusted HRs (AHRs) per doubling in concentration were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.2-3.9) for sTNFR1 and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.5) for sTNFR2. AKI during the index hospitalization did not modify the association between biomarkers and kidney events. For heart failure, the AHRs per doubling in concentration were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.5) for sTNFR1 and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-2.0) for sTNFR2. For mortality, the AHRs were 3.3 (95% CI, 2.5-4.3) for sTNFR1 and 2.5 (95% CI, 2.0-3.1) for sTNFR2. The findings in ARID were qualitatively similar in terms of the magnitude of association between biomarkers and outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Different biomarker platforms and AKI definitions; limited generalizability to other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 measured 3 months after hospital discharge were independently associated with clinical events regardless of AKI status during the index admission. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 may assist with the risk stratification of patients during follow-up.

Biomarkers During Recovery From AKI and Prediction of Long-term Reductions in Estimated GFR.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The effects of acute kidney injury (AKI) on long-term kidney function, cardiovascular disease, and mortality are well documented. We aimed to identify biomarkers for the estimation of risk of new or worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD) following AKI. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Adults from a single clinical center who experienced AKI between May 2013 and May 2016 and survived until 3 years after the hospitalization during which AKI occurred. Participants included those with and without preexisting CKD. PREDICTORS: Panel of 11 plasma biomarkers measured 3 months after hospitalization. OUTCOME: Kidney disease progression, defined as a≥25% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) combined with worsening CKD stage, assessed 3 years after the occurrence of AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Associations between biomarkers and kidney disease progression were evaluated in multivariable logistic regression models. Importance of predictor variables was assessed by constructing multiple decision trees, with penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression for variable selection used to produce multivariable models. RESULTS: A total of 500 patients were studied. Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNFR) 1, sTNFR2, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, 3-month eGFR, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio were independently associated with kidney disease progression and were more important than AKI severity or duration. A multivariable model containing sTNFR1, sTNFR2, cystatin C, and eGFR discriminated between those with and without kidney disease progression (area under the curve, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.70-0.83]). Optimizing the cutoff point to maximize utility as a "rule-out" test to identify those at low risk increased the sensitivity of the model to 95% and its negative predictive value to 92%. LIMITATIONS: Lack of external validation cohort. Analyses limited to patients who survived for 3 years after AKI. Mixed population of patients with and without baseline CKD. CONCLUSIONS: A panel of plasma biomarkers measured 3 months after discharge from a hospitalization complicated by AKI provides a potential opportunity to identify patients who are at very low risk of incident or worsening CKD. Further study is required to determine its clinical utility through independent prospective validation.

Multiplex Serum Biomarker Assays Improve Prediction of Renal and Mortality Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the predictive value of 11 serum biomarkers for renal and mortality end points in people with CKD. METHODS: Adults with CKD (n=139) were enrolled from outpatient clinics between February 2014 and November 2016. Biomarker quantification was performed using two multiplex arrays on a clinical-grade analyzer. Relationships between biomarkers and renal and mortality end points were investigated by random forests and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The cohort was 56% male. The mean age was 63 years and median (IQR) CKD-EPI eGFR was 33 (24-51) ml/min per BSA. A total of 56 (40%) people developed a composite end point defined as ≥40% decline in eGFR, doubling of serum creatinine, RRT, or death over median (IQR) follow-up of 5.4 (4.7-5.7) years. Prediction of the composite end point was better with random forests trained on serum biomarkers compared with clinical variables (area under the curve of 0.81 versus 0.78). The predictive performance of biomarkers was further enhanced when considered alongside clinical variables (area under the curve of 0.83 versus 0.81 for biomarkers alone). Patients (n=27, 19%) with high soluble TNF receptor-1 (≥3 ng/ml) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (≥156 ng/ml), coupled with low complement 3a des-arginine (<2368 ng/ml), almost universally (96%) developed the composite renal and mortality end point. C-reactive protein (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.8), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.1) and complement 3a desarginine (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4 to 0.96) independently predicted time to the composite end point. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatients with the triad of high soluble TNF receptor-1 and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin coupled with low complement 3a des-arginine had high adverse event rates over 5-year follow-up. Incorporation of serum biomarkers alongside clinical variables improved prediction of CKD progression and mortality. Our findings require confirmation in larger, more diverse patient cohorts.