Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change.

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species' impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.

Las especies invasoras pueden alterar dramáticamente un ecosistema, pero erradicarlas es complicado y suprimirlas es costoso una vez que están establecidas. Las incertidumbres en el potencial de expansión y el impacto de un invasor pueden derivar en una supresión retardada e inadecuada que permite el establecimiento. Los modelos de viabilidad meta poblacional pueden auxiliar en la planeación de estrategias para mejorar las respuestas ante especies invasoras y disminuir su impacto, lo cual puede ser particularmente importante ante el cambio climático. Usamos un modelo meta poblacional espacialmente explícito para explorar las estrategias de supresión usadas con la trucha café (Salmo trutta), una especie invasora y dañina establecida en el Río Colorado en el Parque Nacional del Gran Cañón. Nuestros objetivos fueron estimar la efectividad de las estrategias enfocadas en diferentes etapas de vida y subpoblaciones dentro de una meta población; cuantificar la efectividad de una respuesta rápida ante una nueva invasión en relación a retardar la acción hasta que ocurra el establecimiento; y estimar si los sistemas térmicos e hidrológicos relacionados con el cambio climático y la gestión de cuencas afectarán la viabilidad meta poblacional y alterarán la respuesta óptima de gestión en el futuro. Nuestros modelos incluyeron escenarios enfocados en diferentes etapas de vida con intensidades espacialmente variables de pesca eléctrica, destrucción de redes, cultivo incentivado de pescadores, piscicidas y un dique. La cuasi extinción (CE) sólo se obtuvo con una supresión a nivel meta poblacional enfocada en múltiples etapas de vida. Las tasas de crecimiento poblacional de la trucha fueron más sensibles a los cambios en edad cero y una gran mortalidad adulta. La duración de la supresión requerida para llegar a la CE para una subpoblación grande establecida fue de doce años en comparación con los cuatro de una respuesta rápida a una nueva invasión. Las subpoblaciones aisladas fueron vulnerables a la supresión; sin embargo, las subpoblaciones conectadas por medio de tributarios incrementaron la persistencia meta poblacional al fungir como refugios climáticos. La escasez de agua, cambios impulsores en el almacenamiento de la cuenca y el calentamiento subsecuente causarían declinaciones de la trucha, pero la CE meta poblacional sólo se logró con el reenfoque e incremento de la supresión. Nuestra estrategia de modelado mejora el entendimiento de las dinámicas meta poblacionales de la trucha café invasora, lo cual podría llevar a estrategias de supresión más enfocadas y efectivas y, finalmente, al mantenimiento de las poblaciones de peces endémicos. Exploración de alternativas a la supresión a escala meta poblacional de un invasor mundial en una red de ríos que experimenta el cambio climático.

Migration timing and tributary use of spawning flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis).

Spawning phenology and associated migrations of fishes are often regulated by factors such as temperature and stream discharge, but flow regulation of mainstem rivers coupled with climate change might disrupt these cues and affect fitness. Flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) persisting in heavily modified river networks are known to spawn in tributaries that might provide better spawning habitat than neighboring mainstem rivers subject to habitat degradation (e.g., embedded sediments, altered thermal regimes, and disconnected floodplains). PIT tag data and radio telemetry were used to quantify the timing and duration of flannelmouth sucker tributary spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues in McElmo Creek, a tributary of the San Juan River in the American Southwest. We also tested the extent of the tributary migration and assessed mainstem movements prior to and after tributary migrations. Additionally, multiyear data sets of PIT detections from other tributaries in the Colorado River basin were used to quantify interannual and cross-site variation in the timing of flannelmouth sucker spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues. The arrival and residence times of fish spawning in McElmo Creek varied among years, with earlier migration and a 3-week increase in residence time in relatively wet years compared to drier years. Classification tree analysis suggested a combination of discharge- and temperature-determined arrival timing. Of fish PIT tagged in the fall, 56% tagged within 10 km of McElmo Creek spawned in the tributary the following spring, as did 60% of radio-tagged fish, with a decline in its use corresponding to increased distance of tagging location. A broader analysis of four tributaries in the Colorado River basin, including McElmo Creek, found photoperiod and temperature of tributary and mainstem rivers were the most important variables in determining migration timing, but tributary and mainstem discharge also aided in classification success. The largest tributary, the Little Colorado River, had more residential fish or fish that stayed for longer periods (median = 30 days), whereas McElmo Creek fish stayed an average of just 10 days in 2022. Our results generally suggest that higher discharge, across years or across sites, results in extended use of tributaries by flannelmouth suckers. Conservation actions that limit water extraction and maintain natural flow regimes in tributaries, while maintaining open connection with mainstem rivers, may benefit migratory species, including flannelmouth suckers.

Trophic niches of native and nonnative fishes along a river-reservoir continuum.

Instream barriers can constrain dispersal of nonnative fishes, creating opportunities to test their impact on native communities above and below these barriers. Deposition of sediments in a river inflow to Lake Powell, USA resulted in creation of a large waterfall prohibiting upstream movement of fishes from the reservoir allowing us to evaluate the trophic niche of fishes above and below this barrier. We expected niche overlap among native and nonnative species would increase in local assemblages downstream of the barrier where nonnative fish diversity and abundance were higher. Fishes upstream of the barrier had more distinct isotopic niches and species exhibited a wider range in δ15N relative to downstream. In the reservoir, species were more constrained in δ15N and differed more in δ13C, representing a shorter, wider food web. Differences in energetic pathways and resource availability among habitats likely contributed to differences in isotopic niches. Endangered Razorback Sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) aggregate at some reservoir inflows in the Colorado River basin, and this is where we found the highest niche overlap among species. Whether isotopic niche overlap among adult native and nonnative species has negative consequences is unclear, because data on resource availability and use are lacking; however, these observations do indicate the potential for competition. Still, the impacts of diet overlap among trophic generalists, such as Razorback Sucker, are likely low, particularly in habitats with diverse and abundant food bases such as river-reservoir inflows.