Inhibition of the tyrosine kinase, Syk, analyzed by stepwise nonparametric regression.

A set of 538 inhibitors of the tyrosine kinase, Syk, including purines, pyrimidines, indoles, imidazoles, pyrazoles, and quinazolines, has been analyzed using a stepwise nonparametric regression (SNPR) algorithm, which has been developed for QSAR studies of pharmacological data. The algorithm couples stepwise descriptor selection with flexible, nonparametric, kernel regression, to generate structure-activity relationships. A further 371 molecules have been used as a test set to evaluate the models generated. Descriptors were selected using an internal monitoring set, and models were assessed using 10% of the principal (538-compound) data set, selected randomly, as an external validation set. The best model had a Q(2) of 0.46 for the external validation set. Test set predictions were significantly less accurate, partly due to the higher mean activity of the test molecules. However at a more coarse-grain level the SNPR models classified active molecules accurately, giving good enrichments. The data sets are difficult to model accurately and SNPR performs better than multilinear regression and a neural network analysis. In the additive implementation of SNPR multidimensional models are considered as a sum of single dimensional regressions. This makes the resultant models easily interpretable. For example, in the most predictive SNPR models, there is a clear nonlinear relationship between hydrophobicity (AlogP98) and inhibitory activity.

Application of non-parametric regression to quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Several non-parametric regressors have been applied to modelling quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) data. Performances were benchmarked against multilinear regression and the nonlinear method of smoothing splines. Variable selection was explored through systematic combinations of different variables and combinations of principal components. For the training set examined--539 inhibitors of the tyrosine kinase, Syk--the best two-descriptor model had a 5-fold cross-validated q2 of 0.43. This was generated by a multi-variate Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator. A subsequent, independent, test set of 371 similar chemical entities showed the model had some predictive power. Other approaches did not perform as well. A modest increase in predictive ability can be achieved with three descriptors, but the resulting model is less easy to visualise. We conclude that non-parametric regression offers a potentially powerful approach to identifying predictive, low-dimensional QSARs.