Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States.

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties' population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective.

Food environment and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: A geospatial analysis of health outcome data.

BACKGROUND: The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) renders its prevention a major public health priority. A key risk factor of diabetes is obesity and poor diets. Food environments have been found to influence people's diets and obesity, positing they may play a role in the prevalence of diabetes. Yet, there is scant evidence on the role they may play in the context of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined the associations of food environments on T2DM among adults and its heterogeneity by income and sex. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked individual health outcome data of 12,167 individuals from a network of health surveillance sites (the South Asia Biobank) to the density and proximity of food outlets geolocated around their homes from environment mapping survey data collected between 2018 and 2020 in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Density was defined as share of food outlets within 300 m from study participant's home, and proximity was defined as having at least 1 outlet within 100 m from home. The outcome variables include fasting blood glucose level, high blood glucose, and self-reported diagnosed diabetes. Control variables included demographics, socioeconomic status (SES), health status, healthcare utilization, and physical activities. Data were analyzed in ArcMap 10.3 and STATA 15.1. A higher share of fast-food restaurants (FFR) was associated with a 9.21 mg/dl blood glucose increase (95% CI: 0.17, 18.24; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR in the proximity was associated with 2.14 mg/dl blood glucose increase (CI: 0.55, 3.72; p < 0.01). A 1% increase in the share of FFR near an individual's home was associated with 8% increase in the probability of being clinically diagnosed as a diabetic (average marginal effects (AMEs): 0.08; CI: 0.02, 0.14; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR near home was associated with 16% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.16; CI: 1.01, 1.33; p < 0.05) and 19% (OR: 1.19; CI: 1.03, 1.38; p < 0.05) increases in the odds of higher blood glucose levels and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. The positive association between FFR density and blood glucose level was stronger among women than men, but the association between FFR proximity and blood glucose level was stronger among men as well as among those with higher incomes. One of the study's key limitations is that we measured exposure to food environments around residency geolocation; however, participants may source their meals elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the exposure to fast-food outlets may have a detrimental impact on the risk of T2DM, especially among females and higher-income earners. Policies should target changes in the food environments to promote better diets and prevent T2DM.

Bandwagoning, free-riding and heterogeneity in influenza vaccine decisions: An online experiment.

'Nudge'-based social norms messages conveying high population influenza vaccination coverage levels can encourage vaccination due to bandwagoning effects but also discourage vaccination due to free-riding effects on low risk of infection, making their impact on vaccination uptake ambiguous. We develop a theoretical framework to capture heterogeneity around vaccination behaviors, and empirically measure the causal effects of different messages about vaccination coverage rates on four self-reported and behavioral vaccination intention measures. In an online experiment, N = 1365 UK adults are randomly assigned to one of seven treatment groups with different messages about their social environment's coverage rate (varied between 10% and 95%), or a control group with no message. We find that treated groups have significantly greater vaccination intention than the control. Treatment effects increase with the coverage rate up to a 75% level, consistent with a bandwagoning effect. For coverage rates above 75%, the treatment effects, albeit still positive, stop increasing and remain flat (or even decline). Our results suggest that, at higher coverage rates, free-riding behavior may partially crowd out bandwagoning effects of coverage rate messages. We also find significant heterogeneity of these effects depending on the individual perceptions of risks of infection and of the coverage rates.

The J-IDEA Pandemic Planner: A Framework for Implementing Hospital Provision Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care. METHODS: We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first. DISCUSSION: The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs.

Progress towards antibiotic use targets in eight high-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare antibiotic sales in eight high-income countries using the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch and Reserve (AWaRe) classification and the target of 60% consumption of Access category antibiotics. METHODS: We analysed data from a commercial database of sales of systemic antibiotics in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and United States of America over the years 2013-2018. We classified antibiotics according to the 2019 AWaRe categories: Access, Watch, Reserve and Not Recommended. We measured antibiotic sales per capita in standard units (SU) per capita and calculated Access group sales as a percentage of total antibiotic sales. FINDINGS: In 2018, per capita antibiotic sales ranged from 7.4 SU (Switzerland) to 20.0 SU (France); median sales of Access group antibiotics were 10.9 SU per capita (range: 3.5-15.0). Per capita sales declined moderately over 2013-2018. The median percentage of Access group antibiotics was 68% (range: 22-77 %); the Access group proportion increased in most countries between 2013 and 2018. Five countries exceeded the 60% target; two countries narrowly missed it (> 55% in Germany and Italy). Sales of Access antibiotics in Japan were low (22%), driven by relatively high sales of oral cephalosporins and macrolides. CONCLUSION: We have identified changes to prescribing that could allow countries to achieve the WHO target. The 60% Access group target provides a framework to inform national antibiotic policies and could be complemented by absolute measures and more ambitious values in specific settings.

The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. METHODS: We estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England. RESULTS: We find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After 3 months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance; 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality. CONCLUSION: Good compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.

Socio-economic inequalities in arts engagement and depression among older adults in the United Kingdom: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: Arts engagement has been positively linked with mental health and well-being; however, socio-economic inequalities may be prevalent in access to and uptake of arts engagement reflecting on inequalities in mental health. This study estimated socio-economic inequality and horizontal inequity (unfair inequality) in arts engagement and depression symptoms of older adults in England. Trends in inequality and inequity were measured over a period of ten years. STUDY DESIGN: This is a repeated cross-sectional study. METHODS: In this analysis, we used data from six waves (waves 2 to 7) of the nationally representative English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We estimated socio-economic inequality using concentration curves that plot the distribution of arts engagement and depression symptoms against the distribution of wealth. A concentration index was used to measure the magnitude of the inequality. Unfair inequality was then calculated for need-standardised arts engagement using a horizontal inequity index (HII). RESULTS: The study sample included adults aged 50 years and older from waves 2 (2004/2005, n = 6620) to 7 (2014/2015, n = 3329). Engagement with cinema, galleries and theatre was pro-rich unequal, i.e. concentrated among the wealthier, but inequality in depression was pro-poor unequal, i.e. concentrated more among the less wealthy. While pro-rich inequality in arts engagement decreased from wave 2 (conc. index: 0·291, 95% confidence interval 0·27 to 0·31) to wave 7 (conc. index: 0·275, 95% confidence interval 0·24 to 0·30), pro-poor inequality in depression increased from wave 2 (conc. index: -0·164, 95% confidence interval -0·18 to -0·14) to wave 7 (conc. index: -0·189, 95% confidence interval -0·21 to -0·16). Depression-standardised arts engagement showed horizontal inequity that increased from wave 2 (HII: 0·455, 95% confidence interval 0·42 to 0·48) to wave 7 (HII: 0·464, 95% confidence interval 0·42 to 0·50). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that while socio-economic inequality in arts engagement might appear to have reduced over time, once arts engagement is standardised for need, inequality has actually worsened over time and can be interpreted as inequitable (unfair). Relying on need-unstandardised estimates of inequality might thus provide a false sense of achievement to policy makers and lead to improper social prescribing interventions being emplaced.

Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40-78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to <18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases-despite our efforts to mitigate them-related to the methodological differences between these sources. CONCLUSIONS: The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population.

Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. RESULTS: NHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated. CONCLUSIONS: Unless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surgery to take place.

Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal.

OBJECTIVE: To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. METHODS: The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. FINDINGS: If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. CONCLUSION: The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.

Excess influenza hospital admissions and costs due to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England.

Influenza pandemics considerably burden affected health systems due to surges in inpatient admissions and associated costs. Previous studies underestimate or overestimate 2009/2010 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic hospital admissions and costs. We robustly estimate overall and age-specific weekly H1N1 admissions and costs between June 2009 and March 2011 across 170 English hospitals. We calculate H1N1 admissions and costs as the difference between our administrative data of all influenza-like-illness patients (seasonal and pandemic alike) and a counterfactual of expected weekly seasonal influenza admissions and costs established using time-series models on prepandemic (2004-2008) data. We find two waves of H1N1 admissions: one pandemic wave (June 2009-March 2010) with 10,348 admissions costing £20.5 million and one postpandemic wave (November 2010-March 2011) with 11,775 admissions costing £24.8 million. Patients aged 0-4 years old have the highest H1N1 admission rate, and 25- to 44- and 65+-year-olds have the highest costs. Our estimates are up to 4.3 times higher than previous reports, suggesting that the pandemic's burden on hospitals was formerly underassessed. Our findings can help hospitals manage unexpected surges in admissions and resource use due to pandemics.

Does global drug innovation correspond to burden of disease? The neglected diseases in developed and developing countries.

Although it is commonly argued that there is a mismatch between drug innovation and disease burden, there is little evidence on the magnitude and direction of such disparities. In this paper, we measure inequality in innovation, by comparing research and development activity with population health and gross domestic product data across 493 therapeutic indications to globally measure: (a) drug innovation, (b) disease burden, and (c) market size. We use concentration curves and indices to assess inequality at two levels: (a) broad disease groups and (b) disease subcategories for both 1990 and 2010. For some top burden disease subcategories (i.e., cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, neoplasms, and musculoskeletal disorders), innovation is disproportionately concentrated in diseases with high disease burden and large market size, whereas for others (i.e., mental and behavioral disorders, neonatal disorders, and neglected tropical diseases) innovation is disproportionately concentrated in low burden diseases. These inequalities persisted over time, suggesting inertia in pharmaceutical research and development in tackling the global health challenges. Our results confirm quantitatively assertions about the mismatch between disease burden and pharmaceutical innovation in both developed and developing countries and highlight the disease areas for which morbidity and mortality remain unaddressed.

Cost-Effectiveness and Dynamic Efficiency: Does the Solution Lie Within?

The majority of the current systems spread across the world require the value of pharmaceuticals to be demonstrated with an acceptable degree of certainty before a technology is funded. Often involving the notion of cost-effectiveness, one of the key characteristics of such assessments tends to be the consideration of efficiency as a static outcome; with a strong emphasis on current health gains but a disregard for the impact of decision making on the potential health value over time. In this article, we argue that current systems using cost-effectiveness thresholds may provide an incomplete indicator of value. We defend the idea that funding decisions should also be informed by dynamic efficiency considerations and reflect both the current and the future value of achieving a certain level of effectiveness in a specific disease area. We further lay down the foundations for the implementation of such a value assessment framework.

Should I pay for your risky behaviours? Evidence from London.

We investigate the extent to which respondents from a general population sample in London (July-August 2011) agree or disagree with the NHS covering the healthcare costs related to five risky health behaviours: overeating, unhealthy diet, sedentary life, excess of alcohol, and smoking. For each behaviour, we also directly explore the main factors associated with the likelihood to agree or disagree. Half of the respondents (N=146) manifest agreement with the idea. Wider agreement exists for covering the costs associated smoking, heavy drinking, and sedentary lives than with overeating, or poor diets. With the exception of alcohol drinking and sedentary life, there is an almost one-to-one relationship between the agreement that the NHS should pay the healthcare costs associated with a specific behaviour, and the respondents' actual engagement in that behaviour. Those at higher risk of depending on publicly funded healthcare, are more likely to agree.

The Portuguese NHS 2024 reform: transformation through vertical integration.

Vertical integration models aim for the integration of services from different levels of care (e.g., primary, and secondary care) with the objective of increasing coordination and continuity of care as well as improving efficiency, quality, and access outcomes. This paper provides a view of the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) healthcare providers' vertical integration, operationalized by the Portuguese NHS Executive Board during 2023 and 2024. This paper also aims to contribute to the discussion regarding the opportunities and constraints posed by public healthcare organizations vertical integration reforms. The Portuguese NHS operationalized the development and generalization of Local Health Units management model throughout the country. The same institutions are now responsible for both the primary care and the hospital care provided by public services in each geographic area, in an integrated manner. This 2024 reform also changed the NHS organic and organizational structures, opening paths to streamline the continuum of care. However, it will be important to ensure adequate monitoring and support, with the participation of healthcare services as well as community structures and other stakeholders, to promote an effective integration of care.

The role of patient organisations in research and development: Evidence from rare diseases.

Patient organisations play an increasingly crucial role in the pharmaceutical sector, yet their impact on innovation remains unexplored. We estimate the impact of patient organisations on R&D activity in the context of rare diseases in Europe using a proprietary dataset that maps clinical trials from discovery to phase III across 29 countries, 1893 indications, and 30 years (1990-2019). By applying difference-in-differences and event study methodologies to a panel of 1,646,910 unique R&D observations, we find that country-indication pairs with at least one operating patient organisation have a higher rate of R&D activity compared to those without, with stronger effect in more prevalent rare diseases compared to ultra-rare conditions. We observe a lag in effects from patient organisation introduction, suggesting it takes approximately five years for these organisations to affect R&D activity. Overall, our work suggests that patient organisations play an important role in steering R&D efforts in rare diseases. Further research is needed to better understand mechanisms driving this effect and the potential impact of patient organisations on existing health inequities.

The impact of hospital price and quality transparency tools on healthcare spending: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Global spending on health was continuing to rise over the past 20 years. To reduce the growth rates, alleviate information asymmetry, and improve the efficiency of healthcare markets, global health systems have initiated price and quality transparency tools in the hospital industry in the last two decades. OBJECTIVE : The objective of this review is to synthesize whether, to what extent, and how hospital price and quality transparency tools affected 1) the price of healthcare procedures and services, 2) the payments of consumers, and 3) the premium of health insurance plans bonding with hospital networks. METHODS: A literature search of EMBASE, Web of Science, Econlit, Scopus, Pubmed, CINAHL, and PsychINFO was conducted, from inception to Oct 31, 2021. Reference lists and tracked citations of retrieved articles were hand-searched. Study characteristics were extracted, and included studies were scored through a risk of bias assessment framework. This systematic review was reported according to the PRISMA guidelines and registered in PROSPERO with registration No. CRD42022319070. RESULTS: Of 2157 records identified, 18 studies met the inclusion criteria. Near 40 percent of studies focused on hospital quality transparency tools, and more than 90 percent of studies were from the US. Hospital price transparency reduced the price of laboratory and imaging tests except for office-visit services. Hospital quality transparency declined the level or growth rates of healthcare spending, while it adversely and significantly raised the price of healthcare services and consumers' payment in higher-ranked or rated facilities, which was referred to as the reputation premium in the healthcare industry. Hospital quality transparency not only leveraged private insurers bonding with a higher-rated hospital network to increase premiums, but also induced their anticipated pricing behaviors. CONCLUSION: Hospital price and quality transparency was not effective as expected. Future research should explore the understudied consequences of hospital quality transparency programs, such as the reputation/rating premium and its policy intervention.

The Impact of the Priority Review Voucher on Research and Development for Tropical Diseases.

BACKGROUND: In 2007, the priority review voucher (PRV) was implemented in the US to incentivize research and development (R&D) for tropical diseases. The PRV is issued by the US FDA and grants a quicker review to manufacturers upon successful development of a product for a disease eligible for the program. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the PRV has incentivized R&D (measured as clinical trial activity) for the intended tropical diseases. METHOD: We used a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) strategy by exploiting variation in its implementation across diseases and registries around the world. Clinical trials were retrieved from the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for the years 2005-2019. RESULTS: We found a positive, but not statistically significant, effect of the PRV on stimulating R&D activity. Delayed effects of the policy could not be found. CONCLUSION: Our findings, which were robust across a series of robustness tests, suggest that the PRV program is not associated with a trigger in innovation for neglected diseases and therefore should not be considered as a stand-alone solution. It should be supplemented with other government measures to incentivize R&D activity. To increase the value of the program, we recommend that the PRV only be awarded to novel products and not to products that have already been licensed outside the US. Doing so would restrict the number of vouchers awarded and slow down their ongoing market depreciation. Finally, we propose that product sponsors be required to submit an access plan for PRV-awarded products.

Impact of extreme temperatures on emergency hospital admissions by age and socio-economic deprivation in England.

Climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to population health and health systems' resilience, with increasing fluctuations in extreme temperatures through pressures on hospital capacity. While earlier studies have estimated morbidity attributable to hot or cold weather across cities, we provide the first large-scale, population-wide assessment of extreme temperatures on inequalities in excess emergency hospital admissions in England. We used the universe of emergency hospital admissions between 2001 and 2012 combined with meteorological data to exploit daily variation in temperature experienced by hospitals (N = 29,371,084). We used a distributed lag model with multiple fixed-effects, controlling for seasonal factors, to examine hospitalisation effects across temperature-sensitive diseases, and further heterogeneous impacts across age and deprivation. We identified larger hospitalisation impacts associated with extreme cold temperatures than with extreme hot temperatures. The less extreme temperatures produce admission patterns like their extreme counterparts, but at lower magnitudes. Results also showed an increase in admissions with extreme temperatures that were more prominent among older and socioeconomically-deprived populations - particularly across admissions for metabolic diseases and injuries.