Adverse events in a large-scale VMMC programme in Tanzania: findings from a case series analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse events (AEs) rates in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) are critical measures of service quality and safety. While these indicators are key, monitoring AEs in large-scale VMMC programmes is not without challenges. This study presents findings on AEs that occurred in eight years of providing VMMC services in three regions of Tanzania, to provide discussion both on these events and the structural issues around maintaining safety and quality in scaled-up VMMC services. METHODS: We look at trends over time, demographic characteristics, model of VMMC and type and timing of AEs for 1307 males who experienced AEs among all males circumcised in Tabora, Njombe and Iringa regions from 2009 to 2017. We analysed deidentified client data from a VMMC programme database and performed multivariable logistic regression with district clustering to determine factors associated with intraoperative and postoperative AEs among VMMC clients. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Among 741,146 VMMC clients, 0.18% (1307/741,146) experienced a moderate or severe AE. The intraoperative AE rate was 2.02 per 100,000 clients, and postoperative rate was 2.29 per 1000 return clients. Multivariable logistic regression showed that older age (20 to 29 years) was significantly associated with intraoperative AEs (aOR: 3.51, 95% CI: 1.17 to 10.6). There was no statistical significant difference in AE rates by surgical method. Mobile VMMC service delivery was associated with the lowest risk of experiencing postoperative AEs (aOR:0.64, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.98). AE rates peaked in the first one to three  years of the programme and then steadily declined. CONCLUSIONS: In a programme with robust AE monitoring methodologies, AE rates reported in these three regions were very low and declined over time. While these findings support the safety of VMMC services, challenges in reporting of AEs in a large-scale VMMC programme are acknowledged. International and national standards of AE reporting in VMMC programmes are clear. As VMMC programmes transition to national ownership, challenges, strengths and learning from AE reporting systems are needed to support safety and quality of services.

The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of Focusing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention on Specific Age Groups and Regions in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since its launch in 2010, the Tanzania National Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) Program has focused efforts on males ages 10-34 in 11 priority regions. Implementers have noted that over 70% of VMMC clients are between the ages of 10 and 19, raising questions about whether additional efforts would be required to recruit men age 20 and above. This analysis uses mathematical modeling to examine the economic and epidemiological consequences of scaling up VMMC among specific age groups and priority regions in Tanzania. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were conducted using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a compartmental model implemented in Microsoft Excel 2010. The model was populated with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections from external sources, including outputs from Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM). A separate DMPPT 2.0 model was created for each of the 11 priority regions. Tanzania can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising males ages 20-34. This strategy would also require the fewest VMMCs for each HIV infection averted. Circumcising men ages 10-24 will have the greatest impact on HIV incidence over a 15-year period. The most cost-effective approach (lowest cost per HIV infection averted) targets men ages 15-34. The model shows the VMMC program is cost saving in all 11 priority regions. VMMC program cost-effectiveness varies across regions due to differences in projected HIV incidence, with the most cost-effective programs in Njombe and Iringa. CONCLUSIONS: The DMPPT 2.0 results reinforce Tanzania's current VMMC strategy, providing newfound confidence in investing in circumcising adolescents. Tanzanian policy makers and program implementers will continue to focus scale-up of VMMC on men ages 10-34 years, seeking to maximize program impact and cost-effectiveness while acknowledging trends in demand among the younger and older age groups.