HIV competition dynamics over sexual networks: first comer advantage conserves founder effects.

Outside Africa, the global phylogeography of HIV is characterized by compartmentalized local epidemics that are typically dominated by a single subtype, which indicates strong founder effects. We hypothesized that the competition of viral strains at the epidemic level may involve an advantage of the resident strain that was the first to colonize a population. Such an effect would slow down the invasion of new strains, and thus also the diversification of the epidemic. We developed a stochastic modelling framework to simulate HIV epidemics over dynamic contact networks. We simulated epidemics in which the second strain was introduced into a population where the first strain had established a steady-state epidemic, and assessed whether, and on what time scale, the second strain was able to spread in the population. Simulations were parameterized based on empirical data; we tested scenarios with varying levels of overall prevalence. The spread of the second strain occurred on a much slower time scale compared with the initial expansion of the first strain. With strains of equal transmission efficiency, the second strain was unable to invade on a time scale relevant for the history of the HIV pandemic. To become dominant over a time scale of decades, the second strain needed considerable (>25%) advantage in transmission efficiency over the resident strain. The inhibition effect was weaker if the second strain was introduced while the first strain was still in its growth phase. We also tested how possible mechanisms of interference (inhibition of superinfection, depletion of highly connected hubs in the network, one-time acute peak of infectiousness) contribute to the inhibition effect. Our simulations confirmed a strong first comer advantage in the competition dynamics of HIV at the population level, which may explain the global phylogeography of the virus and may influence the future evolution of the pandemic.

Anomalous segregation dynamics of self-propelled particles.

A number of novel experimental and theoretical results have recently been obtained on active soft matter, demonstrating the various interesting universal and anomalous features of this kind of driven systems. Here we consider the adhesion difference-driven segregation of actively moving units, a fundamental but still poorly explored aspect of collective motility. In particular, we propose a model in which particles have a tendency to adhere through a mechanism which makes them both stay in touch and synchronize their direction of motion - but the interaction is limited to particles of the same kind. The calculations corresponding to the related differential equations can be made in parallel, thus a powerful GPU card allows large scale simulations. We find that in a very large system of particles, interacting without explicit alignment rule, three basic segregation regimes seem to exist as a function of time: i) at the beginning the time dependence of the correlation length is analogous to that predicted by the Cahn-Hillard theory, ii) next rapid segregation occurs characterized with a separation of the different kinds of units being faster than any previously suggested speed, finally, iii) the growth of the characteristic sizes in the system slows down due to a new regime in which self-confined, rotating, splitting and re-joining clusters appear. Our results can explain recent observations of segregating tissue cells in vitro.

3D cell segregation geometry and dynamics are governed by tissue surface tension regulation.

Tissue morphogenesis and patterning during development involve the segregation of cell types. Segregation is driven by differential tissue surface tensions generated by cell types through controlling cell-cell contact formation by regulating adhesion and actomyosin contractility-based cellular cortical tensions. We use vertebrate tissue cell types and zebrafish germ layer progenitors as in vitro models of 3-dimensional heterotypic segregation and developed a quantitative analysis of their dynamics based on 3D time-lapse microscopy. We show that general inhibition of actomyosin contractility by the Rho kinase inhibitor Y27632 delays segregation. Cell type-specific inhibition of non-muscle myosin2 activity by overexpression of myosin assembly inhibitor S100A4 reduces tissue surface tension, manifested in decreased compaction during aggregation and inverted geometry observed during segregation. The same is observed when we express a constitutively active Rho kinase isoform to ubiquitously keep actomyosin contractility high at cell-cell and cell-medium interfaces and thus overriding the interface-specific regulation of cortical tensions. Tissue surface tension regulation can become an effective tool in tissue engineering.

Temporal and cultural limits of privacy in smartphone app usage.

Large-scale collection of human behavioural data by companies raises serious privacy concerns. We show that behaviour captured in the form of application usage data collected from smartphones is highly unique even in large datasets encompassing millions of individuals. This makes behaviour-based re-identification of users across datasets possible. We study 12 months of data from 3.5 million people from 33 countries and show that although four apps are enough to uniquely re-identify 91.2% of individuals using a simple strategy based on public information, there are considerable seasonal and cultural variations in re-identification rates. We find that people have more unique app-fingerprints during summer months making it easier to re-identify them. Further, we find significant variations in uniqueness across countries, and reveal that American users are the easiest to re-identify, while Finns have the least unique app-fingerprints. We show that differences across countries can largely be explained by two characteristics of the country specific app-ecosystems: the popularity distribution and the size of app-fingerprints. Our work highlights problems with current policies intended to protect user privacy and emphasizes that policies cannot directly be ported between countries. We anticipate this will nuance the discussion around re-identifiability in digital datasets and improve digital privacy.

Emergence of network effects and predictability in the judicial system.

As courts strive to simultaneously remain self-consistent and adapt to new legal challenges, a complex network of of citations between decided cases is established. Using network science methods to analyze the underlying patterns of citations between cases can help us understand the large-scale mechanisms which shape the judicial system. Here, we use the case-to-case citation structure of the Court of Justice of the European Union to examine this question. Using a link-prediction model, we show that over time the complex network of citations evolves in a way which improves our ability to predict new citations. Investigating the factors which enable prediction over time, we find that the content of the case documents plays a decreasing role, whereas both the predictive power and significance of the citation network structure itself show a consistent increase over time. Finally, our analysis enables us to validate existing citations and recommend potential citations for future cases within the court.

The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks.

Effective control of an epidemic relies on the rapid discovery and isolation of infected individuals. Because many infectious diseases spread through interaction, contact tracing is widely used to facilitate case discovery and control. However, what determines the efficacy of contact tracing has not been fully understood. Here we reveal that, compared with 'forward' tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads), 'backward' tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads) is profoundly more effective. The effectiveness of backward tracing is due to simple but overlooked biases arising from the heterogeneity in contacts. We argue that, even if the directionality of infection is unknown, it is possible to perform backward-aiming contact tracing. Using simulations on both synthetic and high-resolution empirical contact datasets, we show that strategically executed contact tracing can prevent a substantial fraction of transmissions with a higher efficiency-in terms of prevented cases per isolation-than case isolation alone. Our results call for a revision of current contact-tracing strategies so that they leverage all forms of bias. It is particularly crucial that we incorporate backward and deep tracing in a digital context while adhering to the privacy-preserving requirements of these new platforms.

Optimizing targeted vaccination across cyber-physical networks: an empirically based mathematical simulation study.

Targeted vaccination, whether to minimize the forward transmission of infectious diseases or their clinical impact, is one of the 'holy grails' of modern infectious disease outbreak response, yet it is difficult to achieve in practice due to the challenge of identifying optimal targets in real time. If interruption of disease transmission is the goal, targeting requires knowledge of underlying person-to-person contact networks. Digital communication networks may reflect not only virtual but also physical interactions that could result in disease transmission, but the precise overlap between these cyber and physical networks has never been empirically explored in real-life settings. Here, we study the digital communication activity of more than 500 individuals along with their person-to-person contacts at a 5-min temporal resolution. We then simulate different disease transmission scenarios on the person-to-person physical contact network to determine whether cyber communication networks can be harnessed to advance the goal of targeted vaccination for a disease spreading on the network of physical proximity. We show that individuals selected on the basis of their closeness centrality within cyber networks (what we call 'cyber-directed vaccination') can enhance vaccination campaigns against diseases with short-range (but not full-range) modes of transmission.

The role of gender in social network organization.

The digital traces we leave behind when engaging with the modern world offer an interesting lens through which we study behavioral patterns as expression of gender. Although gender differentiation has been observed in a number of settings, the majority of studies focus on a single data stream in isolation. Here we use a dataset of high resolution data collected using mobile phones, as well as detailed questionnaires, to study gender differences in a large cohort. We consider mobility behavior and individual personality traits among a group of more than 800 university students. We also investigate interactions among them expressed via person-to-person contacts, interactions on online social networks, and telecommunication. Thus, we are able to study the differences between male and female behavior captured through a multitude of channels for a single cohort. We find that while the two genders are similar in a number of aspects, there are robust deviations that include multiple facets of social interactions, suggesting the existence of inherent behavioral differences. Finally, we quantify how aspects of an individual's characteristics and social behavior reveals their gender by posing it as a classification problem. We ask: How well can we distinguish between male and female study participants based on behavior alone? Which behavioral features are most predictive?

Class attendance, peer similarity, and academic performance in a large field study.

Identifying the factors that determine academic performance is an essential part of educational research. Existing research indicates that class attendance is a useful predictor of subsequent course achievements. The majority of the literature is, however, based on surveys and self-reports, methods which have well-known systematic biases that lead to limitations on conclusions and generalizability as well as being costly to implement. Here we propose a novel method for measuring class attendance that overcomes these limitations by using location and bluetooth data collected from smartphone sensors. Based on measured attendance data of nearly 1,000 undergraduate students, we demonstrate that early and consistent class attendance strongly correlates with academic performance. In addition, our novel dataset allows us to determine that attendance among social peers was substantially correlated (>0.5), suggesting either an important peer effect or homophily with respect to attendance.

Shock waves on complex networks.

Power grids, road maps, and river streams are examples of infrastructural networks which are highly vulnerable to external perturbations. An abrupt local change of load (voltage, traffic density, or water level) might propagate in a cascading way and affect a significant fraction of the network. Almost discontinuous perturbations can be modeled by shock waves which can eventually interfere constructively and endanger the normal functionality of the infrastructure. We study their dynamics by solving the Burgers equation under random perturbations on several real and artificial directed graphs. Even for graphs with a narrow distribution of node properties (e.g., degree or betweenness), a steady state is reached exhibiting a heterogeneous load distribution, having a difference of one order of magnitude between the highest and average loads. Unexpectedly we find for the European power grid and for finite Watts-Strogatz networks a broad pronounced bimodal distribution for the loads. To identify the most vulnerable nodes, we introduce the concept of node-basin size, a purely topological property which we show to be strongly correlated to the average load of a node.

Hierarchy in directed random networks.

In recent years, the theory and application of complex networks have been quickly developing in a markable way due to the increasing amount of data from real systems and the fruitful application of powerful methods used in statistical physics. Many important characteristics of social or biological systems can be described by the study of their underlying structure of interactions. Hierarchy is one of these features that can be formulated in the language of networks. In this paper we present some (qualitative) analytic results on the hierarchical properties of random network models with zero correlations and also investigate, mainly numerically, the effects of different types of correlations. The behavior of the hierarchy is different in the absence and the presence of giant components. We show that the hierarchical structure can be drastically different if there are one-point correlations in the network. We also show numerical results suggesting that the hierarchy does not change monotonically with the correlations and there is an optimal level of nonzero correlations maximizing the level of hierarchy.

Hierarchy measure for complex networks.

Nature, technology and society are full of complexity arising from the intricate web of the interactions among the units of the related systems (e.g., proteins, computers, people). Consequently, one of the most successful recent approaches to capturing the fundamental features of the structure and dynamics of complex systems has been the investigation of the networks associated with the above units (nodes) together with their relations (edges). Most complex systems have an inherently hierarchical organization and, correspondingly, the networks behind them also exhibit hierarchical features. Indeed, several papers have been devoted to describing this essential aspect of networks, however, without resulting in a widely accepted, converging concept concerning the quantitative characterization of the level of their hierarchy. Here we develop an approach and propose a quantity (measure) which is simple enough to be widely applicable, reveals a number of universal features of the organization of real-world networks and, as we demonstrate, is capable of capturing the essential features of the structure and the degree of hierarchy in a complex network. The measure we introduce is based on a generalization of the m-reach centrality, which we first extend to directed/partially directed graphs. Then, we define the global reaching centrality (GRC), which is the difference between the maximum and the average value of the generalized reach centralities over the network. We investigate the behavior of the GRC considering both a synthetic model with an adjustable level of hierarchy and real networks. Results for real networks show that our hierarchy measure is related to the controllability of the given system. We also propose a visualization procedure for large complex networks that can be used to obtain an overall qualitative picture about the nature of their hierarchical structure.

Collective motion of cells mediates segregation and pattern formation in co-cultures.

Pattern formation by segregation of cell types is an important process during embryonic development. We show that an experimentally yet unexplored mechanism based on collective motility of segregating cells enhances the effects of known pattern formation mechanisms such as differential adhesion, mechanochemical interactions or cell migration directed by morphogens. To study in vitro cell segregation we use time-lapse videomicroscopy and quantitative analysis of the main features of the motion of individual cells or groups. Our observations have been extensive, typically involving the investigation of the development of patterns containing up to 200,000 cells. By either comparing keratocyte types with different collective motility characteristics or increasing cells' directional persistence by the inhibition of Rac1 GTP-ase we demonstrate that enhanced collective cell motility results in faster cell segregation leading to the formation of more extensive patterns. The growth of the characteristic scale of patterns generally follows an algebraic scaling law with exponent values up to 0.74 in the presence of collective motion, compared to significantly smaller exponents in case of diffusive motion.