Digital contact tracing and network theory to stop the spread of COVID-19 using big-data on human mobility geolocalization.

The spread of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. Here, we implement a comprehensive contact tracing and network analysis to find an optimized quarantine protocol to dismantle the chain of transmission of coronavirus with minimal disruptions to society. We track billions of anonymized GPS human mobility datapoints to monitor the evolution of the contact network of disease transmission before and after mass quarantines. As a consequence of the lockdowns, people's mobility decreases by 53%, which results in a drastic disintegration of the transmission network by 90%. However, this disintegration did not halt the spreading of the disease. Our analysis indicates that superspreading k-core structures persist in the transmission network to prolong the pandemic. Once the k-cores are identified, an optimized strategy to break the chain of transmission is to quarantine a minimal number of 'weak links' with high betweenness centrality connecting the large k-cores.

Fast algorithm to identify minimal patterns of synchrony through fibration symmetries in large directed networks.

Recent studies have revealed the interplay between the structure of network circuits with fibration symmetries and the functionality of biological networks within which they have been identified. The presence of these symmetries in complex networks predicts the phenomenon of cluster synchronization, which produces patterns of a synchronized group of nodes. Here, we present a fast, and memory efficient, algorithm to identify fibration symmetries in networks. The algorithm is particularly suitable for large networks since it has a runtime of complexity O(Mlog⁡N) and requires O(M+N) of memory resources, where N and M are the number of nodes and edges in the network, respectively. The algorithm is a modification of the so-called refinement paradigm to identify circuits that are symmetrical to information flow (i.e., fibers) by finding the coarsest refinement partition over the network. Finally, we show that the algorithm provides an optimal procedure for identifying fibers, overcoming current approaches used in the literature.

Impact of CoronaVac on Covid-19 outcomes of elderly adults in a large and socially unequal Brazilian city: A target trial emulation study.

BACKGROUND: Although CoronaVac was the only Covid-19 vaccine adopted in the first months of the Brazilian vaccination campaign, randomized clinical trials to evaluate its efficacy in elderly adults were limited. In this study, we use routinely collected surveillance and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and testing data comprising the population of the fifth largest city of Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of CoronaVac in adults 60+ years old against severe outcomes. METHODS: Using large observational databases on vaccination and surveillance data from the city of Fortaleza, Brazil, we defined a retrospective cohort including 324,302 eligible adults aged ≥60 years to evaluate the effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine. The cohort included individuals vaccinated between January 21, 2021, and August 31, 2021, who were matched with unvaccinated persons at the time of rollout following a 1:1 ratio according to baseline covariates of age, sex, and Human Development Index of the neighborhood of residence. Only Covid-19-related severe outcomes were included in the analysis: hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. Vaccine effectiveness for each outcome was calculated by using the risk ratio between the two groups, with the risk obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator. RESULTS: We obtained 62,643 matched pairs for assessing the effectiveness of the two-dose regimen of CoronaVac. The demographic profile of the matched population was statistically representative of the population of Fortaleza. Using the cumulative incidence as the risk associated with each group, starting at day 14 since the receipt of the second dose, we found an 82.3 % (95 % CI 66.3-93.9) effectiveness against Covid-19-related death, 68.4 % (95 % CI 42.3-86.4) against ICU admission, and 55.8 % (95 % CI 42.7-68.3) against hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that, despite critical delays in vaccine delivery and limited evidence in efficacy trial estimates, CoronaVac contributed to preventing deaths and severe morbidity due to Covid-19 in elderly adults.

Determinants of congenital syphilis in Fortaleza, Brazil: A retrospective case-control study.

Congenital syphilis (CS) is a significant public health problem in Brazil. Despite efforts to increase syphilis testing and treatment among pregnant women, rates of CS in the country remain high. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to identify potential associations between the mothers' sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors related to the current and previous pregnancies, and the occurrence of CS among newborns in Fortaleza, a populous city with one of the highest incidences of CS in Brazil. Data from newborns diagnosed with CS between 2017 and 2020 were extracted from SINAN, the national database for notifiable diseases. Data from women who had delivered an infant with CS were extracted from SINASC, the national database for registration of live births, and linked with their infant's data. CS cases and non-CS controls were matched by year of birth at a ratio of 1:3 respectively. Potential associations were estimated using a multivariate regression model accounting for sociodemographic, obstetric, and antenatal care-related factors. Epidemiological data from 8,744 live births were included in the analysis, including 2,186 cases and 6,588 controls. The final multivariate regression model identified increased odds of delivering an infant with CS among pregnant women and girls aged below 20 years (OR 1.29), single women (OR 1.48), women who had less than 8 years of formal education (OR 2.42), women who delivered in a public hospital (OR 6.92), women who had more than 4 previous pregnancies (OR 1.60), and women who had one or more prior fetal loss (OR 1.19). The odds of delivering an infant with CS also increased as the number of antenatal visits decreased. Women who did not attend any antenatal visits had 3.94 times the odds of delivering an infant with CS compared to women who attended 7 or more visits. Our study found that increased odds of delivering an infant with CS were highly associated with factors related to socioeconomic vulnerability. These determinants not only affect the access to essential antenatal care services, but also the continuity and quality of such preventive measures. Future policies aimed at reducing the incidence of CS should not only target those pregnant women and adolescents with identifiable risk factors for testing, but also assure high quality care, treatment and follow-up for this group.