Observations of the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from the prepandemic period using web-based surveillance: a cross-sectional analysis.

Background Scant data are available about global patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread and global epidemiology of early confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside mainland China. We describe the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and characteristics of COVID-19 cases and clusters before the characterisation of COVID-19 as a pandemic. METHODS: Cases of COVID-19 reported between Dec 31, 2019, and March 10, 2020 (ie, the prepandemic period), were identified daily from official websites, press releases, press conference transcripts, and social media feeds of national ministries of health or other government agencies. Case characteristics, travel history, and exposures to other cases were abstracted. Countries with at least one case were classified as affected. Early cases were defined as those among the first 100 cases reported from each country. Later cases were defined as those after the first 100 cases. We analysed reported travel to affected countries among the first case reported from each country outside mainland China, demographic and exposure characteristics among cases with age or sex information, and cluster frequencies and sizes by transmission settings. FINDINGS: Among the first case reported from each of 99 affected countries outside of mainland China, 75 (76%) had recent travel to affected countries; 60 (61%) had travelled to China, Italy, or Iran. Among 1200 cases with age or sex information, 874 (73%) were early cases. Among 762 early cases with age information, the median age was 51 years (IQR 35-63); 25 (3%) of 762 early cases occurred in children younger than 18 years. Overall, 21 (2%) of 1200 cases were in health-care workers and none were in pregnant women. 101 clusters were identified, of which the most commonly identified transmission setting was households (76 [75%]; mean 2·6 cases per cluster [range 2-7]), followed by non-health-care occupational settings (14 [14%]; mean 4·3 cases per cluster [2-14]), and community gatherings (11 [11%]; mean 14·2 cases per cluster [4-36]). INTERPRETATION: Cases with travel links to China, Italy, or Iran accounted for almost two-thirds of the first reported COVID-19 cases from affected countries. Among cases with age information available, most were among adults aged 18 years and older. Although there were many clusters of household transmission among early cases, clusters in occupational or community settings tended to be larger, supporting a possible role for physical distancing to slow the progression of SARS-CoV-2 spread. FUNDING: None.

Investigating outbreaks: practical guidance in the Indian scenario.

The new international Health Regulations, 2005, which came into force in 2007, establish a national focal point in each country to manage public health emergencies of international concern, including outbreaks. Investigating outbreaks is a challenging task. Often, pressure from decision-makers to hasten investigation may preclude proper evidence-based conclusions. Furthermore, the task of outbreak investigation is given to senior staff, who have limited time for field activities. The classical 10-step approach includes 4 main stages of (i) confirmation of the presence of the outbreak and of diagnosis using laboratory tests, (ii) generation of hypotheses regarding causation using descriptive epidemiology findings, (iii) hypothesis-testing using analytical epidemiology techniques, and (iv) institution of prevention measures. Peer-review at all stages of the investigation and reporting is the keystone of the quality assurance process. It is important to build capacity for outbreak Investigation. Two Field Epidemiology Training Programmes in India are trying to do this. In these programmes, epidemiologists-in-training take a lead in investigating outbreaks, while learning the ropes, with full technical support from the faculty. This training should spawn a culture of generating and using evidence for decision-making in the context of public health, and help strengthen health systems even beyond the domain of outbreaks.