Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.

The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations, including older individuals and healthcare workers. Now, despite substantial infection- and vaccine-induced immunity in host populations worldwide, waning immunity and the emergence of novel variants continue to cause significant waves of infection and disease. Policy makers must determine how to deploy booster vaccinations, particularly when constraints in vaccine supply, delivery and cost mean that booster vaccines cannot be administered to everyone. A key question is therefore whether older individuals should again be prioritised for vaccination, or whether alternative strategies (e.g. offering booster vaccines to the individuals who have most contacts with others and therefore drive infection) can instead offer indirect protection to older individuals. Here, we use mathematical modelling to address this question, considering SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a range of countries with different socio-economic backgrounds. We show that the population structures of different countries can have a pronounced effect on the impact of booster vaccination, even when identical booster vaccination targeting strategies are adopted. However, under the assumed transmission model, prioritising older individuals for booster vaccination consistently leads to the most favourable public health outcomes in every setting considered. This remains true for a range of assumptions about booster vaccine supply and timing, and for different assumed policy objectives of booster vaccination.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly.

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Effects of Hormonal Contraception and the Menstrual Cycle on Fatigability and Recovery From an Anaerobic Exercise Test.

ABSTRACT: Cabre, HE, Ladan, AN, Moore, SR, Joniak, KE, Blue, MNM, Pietrosimone, BG, Hackney, AC, and Smith-Ryan, AE. Effects of hormonal contraception and the menstrual cycle on fatigability and recovery from an anaerobic exercise test. J Strength Cond Res 38(7): 1256-1265, 2024-This study sought to evaluate the effects of oral contraceptive (OC) and hormonal intrauterine device (H-IUD) use, compared with a eumenorrheic (EUM) cycle, on fatigability and recovery between hormone the phases. Peak power (PP), average power (AP), fatigue index (FI), blood lactate, vessel diameter, and blood flow (BF) were measured from a repeated sprint cycle test (10 × 6 seconds) in 60, healthy, active women (mean ± SD ; age: 26.5 ± 7.0 years, BMI: 22.5 ± 3.7 kg·m -2 ) who used monophasic OC (≥6 months; n = 21), had a H-IUD (≥6 months; n = 20), or had regular naturally occurring menstrual cycle (≥3 months) or had a nonhormonal IUD (EUM; n = 19). Subjects were randomly assigned to begin in either the low-hormone phase (LHP) or high-hormone phase (HHP) and were tested once in each phase. Separate univariate analyses of covariances assessed the change from HHP to LHP between the groups, covaried for progesterone, with significance set at p ≤ 0.05. All groups demonstrated similar changes in PP, AP, FI, blood lactate, vessel diameter, and BF between the phases ( p > 0.05). Although not significant, AP was higher in LHP for OC (Δ -248.2 ± 1,301.4 W) and EUM (Δ -19.5 ± 977.7 W) and higher in HHP for H-IUD (Δ 369.3 ± 1,123.0 W). Oral contraceptive group exhibited a higher FI (Δ 2.0%) and reduced blood lactate clearance (Δ 2.5%) in HHP. In recreationally active women, hormonal contraception and hormone phases may minimally impact fatigue and recovery. Individual elite female athletes may benefit from understanding hormonal contraception type as performance and recovery may slightly vary across the cycle.

"It's gotta be done right way": a qualitative study exploring the acceptability of a proposed longitudinal cohort study of young Aboriginal children in Alice Springs.

There is a need for quality longitudinal data on the health and well-being of young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (hereafter Aboriginal) in Alice Springs that can be used for research, planning and evaluation. The primary aim of this descriptive qualitative study was to determine whether or not a proposed cohort study would be acceptable to the local community. The proposed cohort study will prospectively examine various factors, events and exposures in early life that give Aboriginal children the best chance to grow up strong and lead a healthy happy life. Decisions on specific priority issues to be addressed and study procedures will be determined by local Aboriginal researchers and community members during a future co-design phase. 27 semi-structured interviews and 3 focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with a range of community stakeholders and parents/caregivers of young Aboriginal children from Alice Springs in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. Audio recorded data were transcribed and imported into NVivo12 qualitative software for reflexive thematic analysis. Three major themes concerning acceptability of the concept were constructed from the analysis: (1) Have to be mindful, (2) Duplication of data, and (3) "It's gotta be done right way". There was general support for the concept, however, many participants felt that a cautious and slow approach was necessary. Recommendations included focusing on building trust, taking it slow, and ensuring the study is conducted by local Aboriginal researchers. Barriers to feasibility noted included the high mobility of families, competing demands, and privacy concerns. Findings from this qualitative study support the feasibility and acceptability of a future cohort study of young Aboriginal children in Alice Springs. Leadership from respected local Aboriginal researchers and key stakeholders will be critical to its success.

An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England against SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Children and young persons are known to have a high number of close interactions, often within the school environment, which can facilitate rapid spread of infection; yet for SARS-CoV-2, it is the elderly and vulnerable that suffer the greatest health burden. Vaccination, initially targeting the elderly and vulnerable before later expanding to the entire adult population, has been transformative in the control of SARS-CoV-2 in England. However, early concerns over adverse events and the lower risk associated with infection in younger individuals means that the expansion of the vaccine programme to those under 18 years of age needs to be rigorously and quantitatively assessed. METHODS: Here, using a bespoke mathematical model matched to case and hospital data for England, we consider the potential impact of vaccinating 12-17 and 5-11-year-olds. This analysis is reported from an early model (generated in June 2021) that formed part of the evidence base for the decisions in England, and a later model (from November 2021) that benefits from a richer understanding of vaccine efficacy, greater knowledge of the Delta variant wave and uses data on the rate of vaccine administration. For both models, we consider the population wide impact of childhood vaccination as well as the specific impact on the age groups targeted for vaccination. RESULTS: Projections from June suggested that an expansion of the vaccine programme to those 12-17 years old could generate substantial reductions in infection, hospital admission and deaths in the entire population, depending on population behaviour following the relaxation of control measures. The benefits within the 12-17-year-old cohort were less marked, saving between 660 and 1100 (95% PI (prediction interval) 280-2300) hospital admissions and between 22 and 38 (95% PI 9-91) deaths depending on assumed population behaviour. For the more recent model, the benefits within this age group are reduced, saving on average 630 (95% PI 300-1300) hospital admissions and 11 (95% PI 5-28) deaths for 80% vaccine uptake, while the benefits to the wider population represent a reduction of 8-10% in hospital admissions and deaths. The vaccination of 5-11-year-olds is projected to have a far smaller impact, in part due to the later roll-out of vaccines to this age group. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination of 12-170-year-olds and 5-11-year-olds is projected to generate a reduction in infection, hospital admission and deaths for both the age groups involved and the population in general. For any decision involving childhood vaccination, these benefits needs to be balanced against potential adverse events from the vaccine, the operational constraints on delivery and the potential for diverting resources from other public health campaigns.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.

Fine root dynamics across pantropical rainforest ecosystems.

Fine roots constitute a significant component of the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest ecosystems but are much less studied than aboveground NPP. Comparisons across sites and regions are also hampered by inconsistent methodologies, especially in tropical areas. Here, we present a novel dataset of fine root biomass, productivity, residence time, and allocation in tropical old-growth rainforest sites worldwide, measured using consistent methods, and examine how these variables are related to consistently determined soil and climatic characteristics. Our pantropical dataset spans intensive monitoring plots in lowland (wet, semi-deciduous, and deciduous) and montane tropical forests in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia (n = 47). Large spatial variation in fine root dynamics was observed across montane and lowland forest types. In lowland forests, we found a strong positive linear relationship between fine root productivity and sand content, this relationship was even stronger when we considered the fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, demonstrating that understanding allocation adds explanatory power to understanding fine root productivity and total NPP. Fine root residence time was a function of multiple factors: soil sand content, soil pH, and maximum water deficit, with longest residence times in acidic, sandy, and water-stressed soils. In tropical montane forests, on the other hand, a different set of relationships prevailed, highlighting the very different nature of montane and lowland forest biomes. Root productivity was a strong positive linear function of mean annual temperature, root residence time was a strong positive function of soil nitrogen content in montane forests, and lastly decreasing soil P content increased allocation of productivity to fine roots. In contrast to the lowlands, environmental conditions were a better predictor for fine root productivity than for fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, suggesting that root productivity is a particularly strong driver of NPP allocation in tropical mountain regions.

Predicting the Speed of Epidemics Spreading in Networks.

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas, and infectious diseases to now spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing approach to derive simple and effective predictions that are validated against epidemic simulations on a variety of real-world networks with good agreement. In addition to individualized predictions for different nodes, we find an overall sudden transition from low density to almost full network saturation as the contagion progresses in time. Our theory is developed and explained in the setting of simple contagions on treelike networks, but we are also able to show how the method extends remarkably well to complex contagions and highly clustered networks.

Accuracy of colonic mucosal patterns at contrast enema for diagnosis of Hirschsprung disease.

BACKGROUND: Various patterns of colonic mucosal irregularity have been recorded on contrast enema, each with individually very low sensitivity, but high specificity. OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of the radiologic features of Hirschsprung disease utilising a unifying stratification of any form of colonic mucosal irregularity on contrast enema. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of children with suspected Hirschsprung disease managed at a tertiary South African hospital from January 2009 through April 2015. Three observers independently reviewed abdominal radiographs and contrast enemas. The enema analysis included a unifying category of any form of colonic mucosal irregularity. Radiologic features were compared with rectal biopsy results. We used descriptive statistics and the Fisher exact test to compare the radiologic features of children with and without Hirschsprung disease. RESULTS: Ninety-two children with median age of 37 days (range 3 days to 11 years) were included; 50 had biopsy-proven Hirschsprung disease. On enema, any mucosal irregularity, a transition zone and recto-sigmoid ratio inversion were associated with Hirschsprung disease (all P<0.01). Mucosal irregularity showed 96% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] 86.3-99.5) and 71.4% specificity (CI 55.4-84.3); a transition zone showed 86% sensitivity (CI 73.3-94.2) and 90.5% specificity (CI 77.4-97.3); and recto-sigmoid ratio inversion showed 78% sensitivity (CI 64.0-88.5) and 83.3% specificity (CI 68.3-93.0). CONCLUSION: Colonic mucosal irregularity on contrast enema has high sensitivity and moderate specificity for Hirschsprung disease.

Drier tropical forests are susceptible to functional changes in response to a long-term drought.

Climatic changes have profound effects on the distribution of biodiversity, but untangling the links between climatic change and ecosystem functioning is challenging, particularly in high diversity systems such as tropical forests. Tropical forests may also show different responses to a changing climate, with baseline climatic conditions potentially inducing differences in the strength and timing of responses to droughts. Trait-based approaches provide an opportunity to link functional composition, ecosystem function and environmental changes. We demonstrate the power of such approaches by presenting a novel analysis of long-term responses of different tropical forest to climatic changes along a rainfall gradient. We explore how key ecosystem's biogeochemical properties have shifted over time as a consequence of multi-decadal drying. Notably, we find that drier tropical forests have increased their deciduous species abundance and generally changed more functionally than forests growing in wetter conditions, suggesting an enhanced ability to adapt ecologically to a drying environment.

Multimodal Chemical Imaging for Linking Adhesion with Local Chemistry in Agrochemical Multicomponent Polymeric Coatings.

Seed coatings improve germination and offer higher crop yields through a blend of active ingredients (such as insecticides and fungicides), polymers, waxes, fillers, and pigments. To reach their full potential, fundamental formulation challenges bridging structure and function need to be addressed. In some instances, during industrial-volume packing and transportation, coated seeds do not flow well through elevators, conveyers, and applicators, which may reduce yield and add cost. In this work, we illustrate a combinatorial chemical imaging approach to study seed coatings at the microscale to link chemical and physical properties responsible for low seed flowability. The local chemical composition was examined using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) and at comparable length scales, the local adhesive properties were examined using atomic force microscopy (AFM) force volume mapping. The link between the chemical and the adhesive properties was established by non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). The correlative multimodal imaging approach developed here utilizing AFM force volume mapping, ToF-SIMS chemical mapping, and data analytics offers a path for linking function with localized chemistry when investigating multicomponent soft material systems.

Deep instability of deforested tropical peatlands revealed by fluvial organic carbon fluxes.

Tropical peatlands contain one of the largest pools of terrestrial organic carbon, amounting to about 89,000 teragrams (1 Tg is a billion kilograms). Approximately 65 per cent of this carbon store is in Indonesia, where extensive anthropogenic degradation in the form of deforestation, drainage and fire are converting it into a globally significant source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we quantify the annual export of fluvial organic carbon from both intact peat swamp forest and peat swamp forest subject to past anthropogenic disturbance. We find that the total fluvial organic carbon flux from disturbed peat swamp forest is about 50 per cent larger than that from intact peat swamp forest. By carbon-14 dating of dissolved organic carbon (which makes up over 91 per cent of total organic carbon), we find that leaching of dissolved organic carbon from intact peat swamp forest is derived mainly from recent primary production (plant growth). In contrast, dissolved organic carbon from disturbed peat swamp forest consists mostly of much older (centuries to millennia) carbon from deep within the peat column. When we include the fluvial carbon loss term, which is often ignored, in the peatland carbon budget, we find that it increases the estimate of total carbon lost from the disturbed peatlands in our study by 22 per cent. We further estimate that since 1990 peatland disturbance has resulted in a 32 per cent increase in fluvial organic carbon flux from southeast Asia--an increase that is more than half of the entire annual fluvial organic carbon flux from all European peatlands. Our findings emphasize the need to quantify fluvial carbon losses in order to improve estimates of the impact of deforestation and drainage on tropical peatland carbon balances.

Forest biomass, productivity and carbon cycling along a rainfall gradient in West Africa.

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is one of the most important parameters in describing the functioning of any ecosystem and yet it arguably remains a poorly quantified and understood component of carbon cycling in tropical forests, especially outside of the Americas. We provide the first comprehensive analysis of NPP and its carbon allocation to woody, canopy and root growth components at contrasting lowland West African forests spanning a rainfall gradient. Using a standardized methodology to study evergreen (EF), semi-deciduous (SDF), dry forests (DF) and woody savanna (WS), we find that (i) climate is more closely related with above and belowground C stocks than with NPP (ii) total NPP is highest in the SDF site, then the EF followed by the DF and WS and that (iii) different forest types have distinct carbon allocation patterns whereby SDF allocate in excess of 50% to canopy production and the DF and WS sites allocate 40%-50% to woody production. Furthermore, we find that (iv) compared with canopy and root growth rates the woody growth rate of these forests is a poor proxy for their overall productivity and that (v) residence time is the primary driver in the productivity-allocation-turnover chain for the observed spatial differences in woody, leaf and root biomass across the rainfall gradient. Through a systematic assessment of forest productivity we demonstrate the importance of directly measuring the main components of above and belowground NPP and encourage the establishment of more permanent carbon intensive monitoring plots across the tropics.

Body composition, physical activity, and menopause symptoms: how do they relate?

OBJECTIVE: This study characterized the impact of physical activity (light, moderate, and vigorous [VIG] active minutes per day) and body composition (percent body fat [%BF] and fat-free mass index) on total menopausal symptoms (TMSs) in 72 premenopausal, perimenopausal (PERI), or postmenopausal women. METHODS: Activity minutes were collected from wearable fitness trackers. Body composition was evaluated using a whole-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scan. TMSs were quantified using The North American Menopause Society Questionnaire. RESULTS: Significant associations were observed between TMSs and %BF ( r = 0.464, P < 0.001) and VIG ( r = -0.245, P = 0.038). %BF and VIG were significant predictors for TMSs across groups ( R2 = 0.146 and R2 = 0.092, respectively), but only %BF maintained for PERI ( R2 = 0.421, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: %BF predicted nearly half of the variance in PERI TMSs, whereas VIG predicted 9% of the sample variance, demonstrating an important influence of body fat accumulation and intense physical activity in the menopause transition. High-intensity exercise interventions to alleviate body composition changes may also reduce menopausal-related symptoms for PERI women.

Effects of Hormonal Contraception and the Menstrual Cycle on Maximal Strength and Power Performance.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the effects of oral contraceptive (OC) and hormonal intrauterine device (H-IUD) use, compared to an eumenorrheic (EUM) cycle, on maximal strength and power between hormone phases. METHODS: One repetition max (1RM) leg press and bench press, peak force (PF) from knee extension and upright row isometric dynamometry, and power from vertical jump height (VJH) and reactive strength index (RSI; cm/s) were measured in 60 healthy, active women (mean ± standard deviation [SD]; Age: 26.5 ± 7.0 yrs, BMI: 22.5 ± 3.7 kg/m2) who were monophasic OC users for ≥6 months (n = 21), had a H-IUD for ≥6 months (n = 20), or had regularly naturally occurring menstrual cycle for ≥3 months or were using a non-hormonal IUD (EUM; n = 19). Participants were randomly assigned to begin in the follicular phase/placebo pill (low hormone phase; LHP) or in the luteal phase/active pill (high hormone phase; HHP) and were tested once in each phase. Estimates of total lean mass (LM), leg LM, and arm LM were measured via dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Separate univariate ANCOVAs were used to assess the change from HHP to LHP between groups, with LM and progesterone as covariates. RESULTS: Leg press 1RM was significantly different across phases between groups (p = 0.027), with higher leg press 1RM in the HHP for the OC group (mean difference[∆HHP-LHP] ± standard error: ∆7.4 ± 15.9 kg; p = 0.043) compared to the H-IUD group (∆-8.9 ± 23.8 kg; p = 0.043). All groups demonstrated similar bench press 1RM, PF, VJH, and RSI between phases (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Lower body strength was greater in the HHP for OC users (5.6% increase) suggesting lower body maximal strength outcomes may be influenced by hormonal contraception type.

Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia.

Tropical forests cover large areas of equatorial Africa and play a substantial role in the global carbon cycle. However, there has been a lack of biometric measurements to understand the forests' gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and their allocation. Here we present a detailed field assessment of the carbon budget of multiple forest sites in Africa, by monitoring 14 one-hectare plots along an aridity gradient in Ghana, West Africa. When compared with an equivalent aridity gradient in Amazonia, the studied West African forests generally had higher productivity and lower carbon use efficiency (CUE). The West African aridity gradient consistently shows the highest NPP, CUE, GPP, and autotrophic respiration at a medium-aridity site, Bobiri. Notably, NPP and GPP of the site are the highest yet reported anywhere for intact forests. Widely used data products substantially underestimate productivity when compared to biometric measurements in Amazonia and Africa. Our analysis suggests that the high productivity of the African forests is linked to their large GPP allocation to canopy and semi-deciduous characteristics.

Trees are major conduits for methane egress from tropical forested wetlands.

Wetlands are the largest source of methane to the atmosphere, with tropical wetlands comprising the most significant global wetland source component. The stems of some wetland-adapted tree species are known to facilitate egress of methane from anoxic soil, but current ground-based flux chamber methods for determining methane inventories in forested wetlands neglect this emission pathway, and consequently, the contribution of tree-mediated emissions to total ecosystem methane flux remains unknown. In this study, we quantify in situ methane emissions from tree stems, peatland surfaces (ponded hollows and hummocks) and root-aerating pneumatophores in a tropical forested peatland in Southeast Asia. We show that tree stems emit substantially more methane than peat surfaces, accounting for 62-87% of total ecosystem methane flux. Tree stem flux strength was controlled by the stem diameter, wood specific density and the amount of methane dissolved in pore water. Our findings highlight the need to integrate this emission pathway in both field studies and models if wetland methane fluxes are to be characterized accurately in global methane budgets, and the discrepancies that exist between field-based flux inventories and top-down estimates of methane emissions from tropical areas are to be reconciled.

Associations of anorectal malformations and related syndromes.

Anorectal malformations (ARMs) represent a complex group of congenital anomalies resulting from abnormal development of the hindgut, allantois and Mullerian duct resulting in complete or partial urorectal septal malformations. There is a wide variety of phenotypic expression, ranging from mild anorectal to very complex severe ARM with >75 % having other associated malformations. 50 % of cases are syndromic although many may have other associated anomalies. This suggests a genetic link but the genetics of ARM are highly complex with a number of candidate genes being identified. Many can be classified as "field defects" as a result of a complex set of genetic interactions. Patients with associated malformations can be classified into those with multiple congenital anomalies (non-syndromic), those with chromosomal abnormalities and those with non-chromosomal syndromic associations, also, those with non-chromosomal syndromes and the influence of environmental factors (e.g. drugs in pregnancy). Although much is not known about the aetiology of ARM, the weight of evidence points to genetic factors as major causes for the condition. In this review, we look at the chromosomal and genetic associations and their underlying signalling pathways, to obtain a better understanding of the pathogenetic mechanisms involved in developing ARM. The spectrum of ARM phenotypic expression probably results from involvement and crosstalk between a number of critical signalling systems involved in development of this region. As a result, it may be expressed as a "field developmental defect" with many associated abnormalities. The role of environmental factors in the development of ARM is probably less.