GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). METHODS: A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. RESULTS: A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P<0.001) for the GYM score (Glasgow <15; tachYpnea>20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and P<0.001, respectively). The GYM score showed good calibration after bootstrap correction, with an area under the curve of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.605-0.815). CONCLUSION: The GYM score showed better capacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

BAHNG score: predictive model for detection of subjects with the oropharynx colonized by uncommon microorganisms / Escala BAHNG: modelo predictivo para la detección de sujetos colonizados en la orofaringe por microorganismos menos habituales

Objective. Pneumonia is most frequently produced by the microaspiration of flora that colonizes the oropharynx. Etiological diagnosis of pneumonia is infrequent in clinical practise and empirical treatment should be prescribed. The aims of the present study were to determine the factors associated with oropharynx colonization by uncommon microorganisms (UM) and to develop a predictive model. Methods. A cross-sectional study that included all patients living in one long-term care facilities was developed. Demographic, comorbidities, basal functional status and clinical data were collected. To determinate the oropharyngeal colonization, a single sample of pharynx was obtained for each subject using a cotton swab. Results. A total of 221 subjects were included, mean age 86.27 (SD 8.05) years and 157 (71%) were female. In 32 (14.5%) subjects UM flora was isolated, Gram-negative bacilli in 16 (7.2%) residents, and Staphylococcus aureus in 16 (7.2%). The predictive model included the presence of hypertension, neuromuscular disease, Barthel < 90 and use of PEG. The BAHNG score (BArthel, Hypertension, Neuromuscular, Gastrostomy), showed an area under the curve of 0.731 (CI 95% 0.643-0.820; p<0.001). We have classified patients according to this score in low (0-2 points), intermediate (3-5 points) and high risk (≥ 6). The probability of UM colonization in the oropharyngeal based on this classification is 4.1%, 15.8% and 57.1% for low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. Conclusion. The BAHNG score could help in the identifications of elderly patients with high risk of colonization by UM. In case of pneumonia the evaluation of the subject through this score could help in the initial decisions concerning antibiotic treatment (AU)

Objetivo. La neumonía se produce, con mayor frecuencia, por la microaspiración de la flora que coloniza la orofaringe. Su diagnóstico etiológico es infrecuente en la práctica clínica, prescribiéndose el tratamiento empíricamente. El objetivo del presente estudio fue determinar los factores asociados con la colonización de la orofaringe por microorganismos menos habituales y desarrollar un modelo predictivo. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio transversal que incluyó a todos los pacientes ingresados en una residencia de larga estancia. Se recogieron datos demográficos, comorbilidades, estado funcional basal y datos clínicos. Para determinar la colonización orofaríngea, se obtuvo una muestra única de la faringe para cada sujeto con un hisopo de algodón. Resultados. Se incluyeron un total de 221 sujetos, con una edad media de 86,27 (DE 8,05) años y 157 (71%) fueron mujeres. En 32 (14,5%) sujetos se aisló flora menos habitual: bacilos gramnegativos en 16 (7,2%) residentes y Staphylococcus aureus en 16 (7,2%). El modelo predictivo incluyó la presencia de hipertensión, enfermedad neuromuscular, Barthel <90 y tener gastrostomía endoscópica percutánea. La escala BAHNG (BArthel, Hipertensión, Neuromuscular, Gastrostomía) mostró un área bajo la curva de 0,731 (IC 95% 0,643-0,820; p <0,001). Se clasificó a los pacientes según la puntuación en bajo (0-2 puntos), intermedio (3-5 puntos) y alto riesgo (≥ 6). La probabilidad de colonización de la orofaringe por microorganismos menos habituales según esta clasificación fue del 4,1%, 15,8% y 57,1% para el riesgo bajo, intermedio y alto, respectivamente. Conclusión. La escala BAHNG podría ayudar en la identificación de pacientes ancianos con alto riesgo de colonización de la orofaringe por microorganismos menos habituales. En caso de neumonía, la evaluación del sujeto a través de esta escala podría ayudar en las decisiones iniciales sobre el tratamiento antibiótico a instaurar (AU)