Unexpected food web responses to low dissolved oxygen in an estuarine fjord.

In coastal marine ecosystems, the depletion of dissolved oxygen can cause behavioral and distributional shifts of organisms and thereby alter ecological processes. We used the spatiotemporal variation in the onset and intensity of low dissolved oxygen in Hood Canal, Washington, USA, to investigate consequences of seasonally reduced oxygen on fish-zooplankton predator-prey interactions. By simultaneously monitoring densities of zooplankton (primarily the euphausiid; Euphausia pacifica) and zooplanktivorous fish (Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, and Pacific hake, Mercluccius productus), and the feeding of zooplanktivorous fish, we could separate the effects of dissolved oxygen on fish-zooplankton interactions from other seasonal changes. We expected that fish predators (especially Pacific herring) would be less abundant and have lower feeding rates when oxygen levels declined below biological thresholds, and that this would result in increased zooplankton abundance in areas with lowest dissolved oxygen. However, these expectations were not borne out. Overall, there was mixed evidence for an effect of dissolved oxygen on many of our response variables, and when effects were detected, they were frequently in the opposite direction of our expectations. Specifically, the pelagic fish community became more abundant (as measured by increasing acoustic backscatter), which was particularly pronounced for Pacific herring. Zooplankton had weak evidence for a response to dissolved oxygen, but the direction was negative instead of positive. Although predator feeding composition was unrelated to dissolved oxygen, stomach fullness (an index of feeding intensity) of Pacific herring declined, as per our expectations. These unexpected findings highlight the importance of in situ measurements of multiple aspects of predator-prey linkages in response to environmental stress to enhance our ability to predict ecological consequences of declining oxygen.

Fishing amplifies forage fish population collapses.

Forage fish support the largest fisheries in the world but also play key roles in marine food webs by transferring energy from plankton to upper trophic-level predators, such as large fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Fishing can, thereby, have far reaching consequences on marine food webs unless safeguards are in place to avoid depleting forage fish to dangerously low levels, where dependent predators are most vulnerable. However, disentangling the contributions of fishing vs. natural processes on population dynamics has been difficult because of the sensitivity of these stocks to environmental conditions. Here, we overcome this difficulty by collating population time series for forage fish populations that account for nearly two-thirds of global catch of forage fish to identify the fingerprint of fisheries on their population dynamics. Forage fish population collapses shared a set of common and unique characteristics: high fishing pressure for several years before collapse, a sharp drop in natural population productivity, and a lagged response to reduce fishing pressure. Lagged response to natural productivity declines can sharply amplify the magnitude of naturally occurring population fluctuations. Finally, we show that the magnitude and frequency of collapses are greater than expected from natural productivity characteristics and therefore, likely attributed to fishing. The durations of collapses, however, were not different from those expected based on natural productivity shifts. A risk-based management scheme that reduces fishing when populations become scarce would protect forage fish and their predators from collapse with little effect on long-term average catches.

The latitudinal species richness gradient in New World woody angiosperms is consistent with the tropical conservatism hypothesis.

Plant diversity, like that of most other taxonomic groups, peaks in the tropics, where climatic conditions are warm and wet, and it declines toward the temperate and polar zones as conditions become colder and drier, with more seasonally variable temperatures. Climate and evolutionary history are often considered competing explanations for the latitudinal gradient, but they are linked by the evolutionarily conserved environmental adaptations of species and the history of Earth's climate system. The tropical conservatism hypothesis (TCH) invokes niche conservatism, climatic limitations on establishment and survival, and paleoclimatic history to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient. Here, we use latitudinal distributions for over 12,500 woody angiosperm species, a fossil-calibrated supertree, and null modeling to test predictions of the TCH. Regional assemblages in the northern and southern temperate zones are less phylogenetically diverse than expected based on their species richness, because temperate taxa are clustered into relatively few clades. Moreover, lineages with temperate affinities are generally younger and nested within older, more tropical lineages. As predicted by the TCH, the vast majority of temperate lineages have arisen since global cooling began at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (34 Mya). By linking physiological tolerances of species to evolutionary and biogeographic processes, phylogenetic niche conservatism may provide a theoretical framework for a generalized explanation for Earth's predominant pattern of biodiversity.

Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles.

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.