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A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.
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Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Ecología , Predicción , CalorRESUMEN
In many complex, real-world situations, problem solving and decision making require effective reasoning about causation and uncertainty. However, human reasoning in these cases is prone to confusion and error. Bayesian networks (BNs) are an artificial intelligence technology that models uncertain situations, supporting better probabilistic and causal reasoning and decision making. However, to date, BN methodologies and software require (but do not include) substantial upfront training, do not provide much guidance on either the model building process or on using the model for reasoning and reporting, and provide no support for building BNs collaboratively. Here, we contribute a detailed description and motivation for our new methodology and application, Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi (BARD). BARD utilizes BNs and addresses these shortcomings by integrating (1) short, high-quality e-courses, tips, and help on demand; (2) a stepwise, iterative, and incremental BN construction process; (3) report templates and an automated explanation tool; and (4) a multiuser web-based software platform and Delphi-style social processes. The result is an end-to-end online platform, with associated online training, for groups without prior BN expertise to understand and analyze a problem, build a model of its underlying probabilistic causal structure, validate and reason with the causal model, and (optionally) use it to produce a written analytic report. Initial experiments demonstrate that, for suitable problems, BARD aids in reasoning and reporting. Comparing their effect sizes also suggests BARD's BN-building and collaboration combine beneficially and cumulatively.
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Inteligencia Artificial , Programas Informáticos , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Solución de Problemas , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
The popularity of oats (Avena sativa) continues to increase in the cereal market due to their health benefits. The recent domestication of Avena magna, a Moroccan oat, presents an opportunity to enhance these benefits due to their higher nutritional composition. As the impact of microclimates on A. magna grain composition has not been explored, this study evaluates twelve A. magna ssp. domestica lines across three Moroccan locations, providing new data into microclimate effects on key grain characteristics. Significant variability is observed among lines and sites for nutrients, with mean protein, fat, and dietary fiber contents at 23.1%, 8.38%, and 7.23%, respectively. High protein levels, reaching 27.1% in Alnif and 26.5% in El Kbab, surpass the 'Avery' control (21.7% and 24.2%) in these environments. Groats from Bouchane exhibited elevated fat and fiber contents (10.2% and 9.94%) compared to the control (8.83% and 7.36%). While ß-glucan levels remain consistent at 2.53%, a negative correlation between protein content, fat, and starch was observed. A. magna lines exhibited higher levels of iron (7.50 × 10-3 g/100 g DM) and zinc (3.40 × 10-3 g/100 g DM) compared to other cereals. Environmental conditions significantly influence grain quality, with El Kbab yielding higher protein and ash contents, as well as Bouchane having increased fat, fiber, and starch. Stability analysis indicates that fat content was more influenced by the environment, while 25% of protein variability is influenced by genetics. Lines AT3, AT5, AT6, AT13, and AT15 consistently exceeds both the mean for protein and fiber across all sites, emphasizing their potential nutritional value. This study highlights the potential of A. magna ssp. domestica to address nutritional insecurity, particularly for protein, iron, and zinc in domestic settings.
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Several research studies have shown that code status documentation is misinterpreted or incorrectly defined by a significant number of medical professionals. This misinterpretation among the medical team (i.e. equating Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) with comfort care measures only) may lead to false reporting, poor symptom management, and potentially adverse clinical outcomes. Most Hospice and Palliative Care providers are aware of these distinctions, however a shortage (and continued foreseen shortage) of Hospice and Palliative Care providers may mean these conversations and distinctions will fall to non-subspecialists, or providers of other medical specialties or degrees. The literature has demonstrated that these shortfalls and misinterpretations are present and constitute potential harm to our patients.
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Cuidados Paliativos al Final de la Vida , Daño del Paciente , Humanos , Cuidados Paliativos , Comodidad del Paciente , Órdenes de ResucitaciónRESUMEN
Translocations-the movement of species from one place to another-are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.
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We report a case of posttraumatic syringomyelia (PTS) that developed 10 months after spinal cord injury (SCI), A 46-year-old man was involved in a motorcycle accident, in which he received a severe spinal cord injury due to a burst fracture at the T6 level. The patient underwent posterior fixation without decompression at another hospital, and was transferred to our hospital for rehabilitation. Ten months after the SCI, he complained of back and neck pain caused by bending his head backward. MRI showed syringomyelia shaped like a cone extending from the T6 to the C6 level, enlarged by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow toward the syringomyelia at the T6 level. Pain was relieved by syringosubarachnoid shunt implantation and the syrinx disappeared after the operation. PTS emerging 10 months after spinal cord injury is relatively rare. From the radiological and operative findings, PTS was enlarged by the CSF flow, which was hindered at the T6 level by compression of the vertebral body to the spinal cord. In cases of SCI in patients who undergo posterior fixation with insufficient decompression, close attention to PTS is required in the postoperative follow-up.
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Traumatismos de la Médula Espinal/complicaciones , Siringomielia/etiología , Accidentes de Tránsito , Líquido Cefalorraquídeo , Vértebras Cervicales , Descompresión Quirúrgica , Fijación de Fractura , Humanos , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Fracturas de la Columna Vertebral/complicaciones , Siringomielia/diagnóstico , Siringomielia/patología , Siringomielia/cirugía , Vértebras Torácicas/lesiones , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
European Union Commissioner for the Environment Stavros Dimas recently hailed 'upgraded' non-genetically modified (GM) crops as an alternative to GM crops. A comparative analysis of the environmental risks associated with such non-GM herbicide-resistant crops and GM herbicide-resistant crops is presented here. The analysis highlights serious weaknesses in the European Union (EU) regulatory framework, and the contradictory policy of the EU Commission on the precautionary principle is also shown. The continued political stance of ignoring these regulatory and policy inconsistencies is examined and found to be flawed. It is postulated that, even in the face of these flaws and coupled with recent statements from the UK drawing attention to inconsistencies in the EU regulatory framework, the EU will continue to ignore the real and present environmental risks associated with upgraded non-GM crops for biopolitical reasons.
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Agricultura/legislación & jurisprudencia , Biotecnología/legislación & jurisprudencia , Productos Agrícolas , Ambiente , Unión Europea , Resistencia a los Herbicidas , Plantas Modificadas Genéticamente , Productos Agrícolas/genética , RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Over 550,000 sinus surgeries are performed annually in the United States on patients with chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). Although the results of sinus surgery vary widely, no known genetic factor has been identified to predict surgical outcomes. The bitter taste receptor T2R38 has recently been demonstrated to regulate upper airway innate defense and may affect patient responses to therapy. Our goal was to determine whether TAS2R38 genetics predicts outcomes in CRS patients following sinus surgery. METHODS: A prospective study of patients undergoing sinus surgery evaluating postoperative outcomes through the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22). Patients were genotyped for TAS2R38. RESULTS: A total of 123 patients with CRS were initially analyzed; 82 patients showed nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and 41 patients were without nasal polyps (CRSsNP). Six months after surgery, the overall SNOT-22 improvement was 25 ± 23 points. The TAS2R38 genotype was found to significantly correlate with surgical outcomes in patients without polyps; homozygotes for the functional receptor had a mean improvement of 38 ± 21, whereas heterozygotes or homozygotes for the nonfunctional receptor had a mean improvement of 12 ± 22 (p = 0.006). This result was confirmed with a multivariate regression that incorporated further patients with 1-month and 3-month scores (n = 207). CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing sinus surgery for CRS, we have identified a genetic polymorphism that predicts variability in quality of life improvement following surgery at 6 months in nonpolypoid CRS. This is the first genetic polymorphism identified that has demonstrated to predict surgical outcome for a select group of CRS patients.
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Polimorfismo Genético , Receptores Acoplados a Proteínas G/genética , Rinitis/cirugía , Sinusitis/cirugía , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Marcadores Genéticos , Genotipo , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Fenotipo , Estudios Prospectivos , Calidad de Vida , Rinitis/genética , Sinusitis/genética , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of imaging and endoscopy in posttreatment surveillance of sinonasal malignancies. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of primary sinonasal malignancies diagnosed between 2000 and 2014. Posttreatment surveillance included nasal endoscopy and imaging (MRI, CT, and positron emission tomography [PET]/CT). Positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), specificity, and sensitivity were calculated for each modality and compared. RESULTS: One hundred nine sinonasal malignancies were identified with 30 recurrences. Endoscopy showed a sensitivity and specificity of 24% and 89%, respectively, whereas imaging was 76% and 90%, respectively. Identifying suspicious symptoms significantly improved the PPV of both endoscopy and imaging. MRI demonstrates the highest PPV when compared with other imaging modalities. CONCLUSION: Both modalities are necessary in posttreatment surveillance. MRI shows the highest PPV, whereas endoscopy trends toward a higher specificity. PET/CT scans have a high false-positive rate and should be reserved for tumors with a high propensity for distant metastases. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38:1229-1233, 2016.