Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India.

BACKGROUND: India was one of the countries to institute strict measures for Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) control in the early phase. Since, then, the epidemic growth trajectory was slow before registering an explosion of cases due to local cluster transmissions. METHODS: We estimated the growth rate and doubling time of SARS-CoV-2 for India and high burden states using crowdsourced time series data. Further, we also estimated the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) and Time-dependent Reproductive number (Rt) using serial intervals from the data. We compared the R0 estimated from five different methods and R0 from SB was further used in the analysis. We modified standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models to SIR/Death (SIRD) model to accommodate deaths using R0 with the sequential Bayesian method for simulation in SIRD models. RESULTS: On average, 2.8 individuals were infected by an index case. The mean serial interval was 3.9 days. The R0 estimated from different methods ranged from 1.43 to 1.85. The mean time to recovery was 14 ± 5.3 days. The daily epidemic growth rate of India was 0.16 [95% CI; 0.14, 0.17] with a doubling time of 4.30 days [95% CI; 3.96, 4.70]. From the SIRD model, it can be deduced that the peak of SARS-CoV-2 in India will be around mid-July to early August 2020 with around 12.5% of the population likely to be infected at the peak time. CONCLUSION: The pattern of spread of SARS-CoV-2 in India is suggestive of community transmission. There is a need to increase funds for infectious disease research and epidemiologic studies. All the current gains may be reversed if air travel and social mixing resume rapidly. For the time being, these must be resumed only in a phased manner and should be back to normal levels only after we are prepared to deal with the disease with efficient tools like vaccines or medicine. KEY POINTS: . QUESTION: What are the estimates of infectious disease parameters of early phase of novel SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India? FINDINGS: Incidence pattern SARS-CoV-2 shows possible evidence of community transmission. However, the estimated Basic Reproductive Number (R0) is relatively lower than those observed in high burden regions (range 1.43-1.85). Our simulation using susceptible-infectious-recovered/death model shows that peak of SARS-CoV-2 in India is farther than currently projected and is likely to affect around 12.5% of population. MEANING: The lower estimated R0 is indicative of the effectiveness of early social distancing measures and lockdown. Premature relaxation of the current control measures may result in large numbers of cases in India.

One-year clinical outcome of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: Insights from KERALA-AF registry.

BACKGROUND: We report patient characteristics, treatment pattern and one-year clinical outcome of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) from Kerala, India. This cohort forms part of Kerala Atrial Fibrillation (KERALA-AF) registry which is an ongoing large prospective study. METHODS: KERALA-AF registry collected data of adults with previously or newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) during April 2016 to April 2017. A total of 3421 patients were recruited from 53 hospitals across Kerala state. We analysed one-year follow-up outcome of 2507 patients with NVAF. RESULTS: Mean age at recruitment was 67.2 years (range 18-98) and 54.8% were males. Main co-morbidities were hypertension (61.2%), hyperlipidaemia (46.2%) and diabetes mellitus (37.2%). Major co-existing diseases were chronic kidney disease (42.1%), coronary artery disease (41.6%), and chronic heart failure (26.4%). Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.18 (SD ± 1.7) and HAS-BLED score, 1.84 (SD ± 1.3). At baseline, use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) was 38.6% and antiplatelets 32.7%. On one-month follow-up use of OAC increased to 65.8% and antiplatelets to 48.3%. One-year all-cause mortality was 16.48 and hospitalization 20.65 per 100 person years. The main causes of death were cardiovascular (75.0%), stroke (13.1%) and others (11.9%). The major causes of hospitalizations were acute coronary syndrome (35.0%), followed by arrhythmia (29.5%) and heart failure (8.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite high risk profile of patients in this registry, use of OAC was suboptimal, whereas antiplatelets were used in nearly half of patients. A relatively high rate of annual mortality and hospitalization was observed in patients with NVAF in Kerala AF Registry.

Kerala Atrial Fibrillation Registry: a prospective observational study on clinical characteristics, treatment pattern and outcome of atrial fibrillation in Kerala, India, cohort profile.

PURPOSE: Limited published data exist on the clinical epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in South Asia including India. Most of the published data are from the Western countries and the Far East. The Kerala AF registry was initiated to collect systematic, prospective data on clinical characteristics, risk factors, treatment pattern and outcomes of consecutive AF patients who consulted cardiologists across the state of Kerala, India. PARTICIPANTS: All newly diagnosed and previously reported patients aged ≥18 years with documented evidence of AF on ECG were included. Patients with transient AF due to infection, acute myocardial infarction, alcohol intoxication, metabolic abnormalities and AF seen in postoperative cases and critically ill patients with life expectancy less than 30 days were excluded. FINDINGS TO DATE: A total of 3421 patients were recruited from 53 hospitals across Kerala from April 2016 to April 2017. There were 51% (n=1744) women. The median age of the cohort was 65 (IQR 56-74) years. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia were present in 53.8%, 34.5% and 42.2% patients, respectively. Chronic kidney disease was observed in 46.6%, coronary artery disease in 34.8% and heart failure (HF) in 26.5% of patients. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score of the cohort was 2.9, and HAS-BLED score was 1.7. Detailed information of antithrombotic and antiarrhythmic drugs was collected at baseline and on follow-up. During 1-year follow-up, 443 deaths (12.9%) occurred of which 332 (9.7%) were cardiac death and 63 (1.8%) were due to stroke. There were 578 (16.8%) hospitalisations mainly due to acute coronary syndrome, arrythmias and HF. FUTURE PLANS: Currently, this is the largest prospective study on AF patients from India, and the cohort will be followed for 5 years to observe the treatment patterns and clinical outcomes. The investigators encourage collaborations with national and international AF researchers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2017/10/010097.