Precipitation changes impact stream discharge, nitrate-nitrogen load more than agricultural management changes.

Nitrate-N losses to surface waters in the Upper Midwest of the Untied States have increased in recent decades, contributing to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper investigates whether increasing nitrate-N export from cropland in the Upper Midwest since the late 1960s results from changes in land use or climate. The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) Model simulated current and historical agricultural systems under past and recent wet climate for Seven Mile Creek in Minnesota. Simulations were run with management and climate for three distinctly different periods--namely, 1965 to 1969, 1976 to 1980, and 1999 to 2003 (wettest period). Results showed discharge and nitrate-N losses responded more to changes in climate than management. The wetter period (1999-2003) caused a simulated 70% increase in discharge under 1960s-era management compared with that period's observed climate and a simulated 51% increase in discharge under 1970s-era management compared with the 1976 to 1980 climate. The recent, wetter climate also produced a 62% increase in nitrate-N losses for 1960s-era management compared with the actual climate and a 137% increase in nitrate-N losses for 1978 management conditions compared with actual 1970s climate. Had recent climate been in place and stable since 1965, agricultural changes would have decreased discharge by 6.4% through the late 1970s and then by another 21.1% under modern management but would have increased nitrate-N losses by 184% through the late 1970s and then decreased nitrate-N losses by 13.5% between 1978 and 2001. Management changes that were important drivers included increasing N-fertilizer rates, increases in corn acreage, and increases in crop yield. But the most important factor driving increased nitrate-N losses from agriculture since the 1970s was an increasingly wetter climate.

Water quality modeling of fertilizer management impacts on nitrate losses in tile drains at the field scale.

Nitrate losses from subsurface tile drained row cropland in the Upper Midwest U.S. contribute to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Strategies are needed to reduce nitrate losses to the Mississippi River. This paper evaluates the effect of fertilizer rate and timing on nitrate losses in two (East and West) commercial row crop fields located in south-central Minnesota. The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model was calibrated and validated for monthly subsurface tile drain flow and nitrate losses for a period of 1999-2003. Good agreement was found between observed and predicted tile drain flow and nitrate losses during the calibration period, with Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiencies of 0.75 and 0.56, respectively. Better agreements were observed for the validation period. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate the effects of rate and timing of fertilizer application on nitrate losses with a 50-yr climatic record (1954-2003). Significant reductions in nitrate losses were predicted by reducing fertilizer application rates and changing timing. A 13% reduction in nitrate losses was predicted when fall fertilizer application rate was reduced from 180 to 123 kg/ha. A further 9% reduction in nitrate losses can be achieved when switching from fall to spring application. Larger reductions in nitrate losses would require changes in fertilizer rate and timing, as well as other practices such as changing tile drain spacings and/or depths, fall cover cropping, or conversion of crop land to pasture.

Influence of alternative and conventional farming practices on subsurface drainage and water quality.

Agricultural runoff contributes nutrients to nonpoint-source pollution of surface waters. This study was conducted to investigate the potential use of alternative farming practices to improve water quality. The study examined the effects of both alternative and conventional farming practices on subsurface drainage and nitrogen and phosphorus loss through subsurface drainage from glacial till soils (i.e., Calciaquolls, Endoaquolls, Eutrudepts, Hapludolls) in southwest Minnesota. Alternative farming practices included organic management practices, species biodiversity, and/or practices that include reduced inputs of synthetic fertilizer and pesticides. Conventional farming practices include corn-soybean (Zea mays L.-Glycine max L., respectively) rotations and their associated recommended fertilizer rates as well as pesticide usage. Precipitation was highly variable during the 3-yr study period including a below-average year (2003), an average year (2002), and an above-average year (2004). Results indicate that alternative farming practices reduced subsurface drainage discharge by 41% compared with conventional practices. Flow-weighted mean nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate N) concentrations during tile flow were 8.2 and 17.2 mg L(-1) under alternative and conventional farming practices, respectively. Alternative farming practices reduced nitrate N losses by between 59 and 62% in 2002 and 2004 compared with conventional practices. Ammonium-nitrogen (ammonium N), orthophosphorus, and total phosphorus losses in subsurface drainage were very low and did not pose a substantial risk of pollution. Results suggest that alternative farming practices have the potential to reduce agricultural impacts on water quality.

A geostatistical approach to identify and mitigate agricultural nitrous oxide emission hotspots.

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a trace gas with severe environmental costs, are greatest from agricultural soils amended with nitrogen (N) fertilizer. However, accurate N2O emission estimates at fine spatial scales are made difficult by their high variability, which represents a critical challenge for the management of N2O emissions. Here, static chamber measurements (n=60) and soil samples (n=129) were collected at approximately weekly intervals (n=6) for 42-d immediately following the application of N in a southern Minnesota cornfield (15.6-ha), typical of the systems prevalent throughout the U.S. Corn Belt. These data were integrated into a geostatistical model that resolved N2O emissions at a high spatial resolution (1-m). Field-scale N2O emissions exhibited a high degree of spatial variability, and were partitioned into three classes of emission strength: hotspots, intermediate, and coldspots. Rates of emission from hotspots were 2-fold greater than non-hotspot locations. Consequently, 36% of the field-scale emissions could be attributed to hotspots, despite representing only 21% of the total field area. Variations in elevation caused hotspots to develop in predictable locations, which were prone to nutrient and moisture accumulation caused by terrain focusing. Because these features are relatively static, our data and analyses indicate that targeted management of hotspots could efficiently reduce field-scale emissions by as much 17%, a significant benefit considering the deleterious effects of atmospheric N2O.

Evaluation of the phosphorus index in watersheds at the regional scale.

Agricultural losses of phosphorus (P) in runoff are a primary cause of eutrophication in many freshwater systems. A modified version of the P Index originally developed jointly by the USDA (Agricultural Research Service [ARS], Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service [CSREES], and Natural Resources Conservation Service [NRCS]) was used to prioritize P loss vulnerability at the regional scale from 60 watersheds located within Minnesota using readily available data related to the transport and sources of P. This modified version of the P Index was created for a regionally based analysis of the index. Validation of the P Index rating was conducted using long-term water quality monitoring data consisting of total P concentrations collected from watersheds and lakes. The modified version of the P Index produced a strong correlation between P Index rating and total P stream monitoring data in watersheds (r2 = 0.70) excluding the Red River Basin. An equally strong relationship was observed between P Index rating and lake water quality (r2 = 0.68) using the modified P Index. The P Index ratings for the Red River Basin showed good correlation with observed total P stream monitoring data (r2 = 0.51); however, the P Index ratings were smaller than in other basins. The results of this study suggest that, with certain limitations, the P Index can be used at the regional scale to prioritize P loss vulnerability using state and national databases. Regional P Index ratings represent the average risk for agricultural land within the entire watershed.

Nitrate nitrogen in surface waters as influenced by climatic conditions and agricultural practices.

Subsurface tile drainage from row-crop agricultural production systems has been identified as a major source of nitrate entering surface waters in the Mississippi River basin. Noncontrollable factors such as precipitation and mineralization of soil organic matter have a tremendous effect on drainage losses, nitrate concentrations, and nitrate loadings in subsurface drainage water. Cropping system and nutrient management inputs are controllable factors that have a varying influence on nitrate losses. Row crops leak substantially greater amounts of nitrate compared with perennial crops; however, satisfactory economic return with many perennials is an obstacle at present. Improving N management by applying the correct rate of N at the optimum time and giving proper credits to previous legume crops and animal manure applications will also lead to reduced nitrate losses. Nitrate losses have been shown to be minimally affected by tillage systems compared with N management practices. Scientists and policymakers must understand these factors as they develop educational materials and environmental guidelines for reducing nitrate losses to surface waters.

Estimating runoff phosphorus losses from calcareous soils in the Minnesota River basin.

Bioavailable phosphorus (BAP) in stormwater runoff is a key issue for control of eutrophication in agriculturally impacted watersheds. Laboratory experiments were conducted in soil runoff boxes to determine BAP content in simulated storm runoff in 10 (mostly) calcareous soils from the Minnesota River basin in southern Minnesota. The soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) portion of the runoff BAP was significantly correlated with soil Mehlich-III P, Olsen P, and water-extractable P (all r2 > 0.90 and p < 0.001). A linear relationship (r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001) also was obtained between SRP in runoff and the phosphorus saturation index based on sorptivity (PSIs) calculated with sorptivity as a measure of the inherent soil P sorption capacity. Runoff levels of BAP estimated with iron oxide-impregnated paper were predicted well by various soil test P methods and the PSI, of the soils, but correlation coefficients between these variables and runoff BAP were generally lower than those for runoff SRP. Using these relationships and critical BAP levels for stream eutrophication, we found corresponding critical levels of soil Mehlich-III P and Olsen P (which should not be exceeded) to be 65 to 85 and 40 to 55 mg kg(-1), respectively.

Geostatistics, remote sensing and precision farming.

Precision farming is possible today because of advances in farming technology, procedures for mapping and interpolating spatial patterns, and geographic information systems for overlaying and interpreting several soil, landscape and crop attributes. The key component of precision farming is the map showing spatial patterns in field characteristics. Obtaining information for this map is often achieved by soil sampling. This approach, however, can be cost-prohibitive for grain crops. Soil sampling strategies can be simplified by use of auxiliary data provided by satellite or aerial photo imagery. This paper describes geostatistical methods for estimating spatial patterns in soil organic matter, soil test phosphorus and wheat grain yield from a combination of Thematic Mapper imaging and soil sampling.